My Power Ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season. I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant.
I’ll be updating my Power Ratings every week during the season, and this year’s format will include weekly betting notes and a look at the evolving futures markets to go along with my ratings.
Example: My top-rated team, the Bills (8), would be 12-point favorites on a neutral field over my worst-rated team, the Texans (-4). Using a two-point adjustment for home-field advantage (last year’s HFA average was 1.8 points), the Bills would be 14-point favorites over the Texans at home and 10-point favorites over the Texans on the road.
Week 4 Power Ratings
| Rank | Team | Power Rating | 2021 Record (ATS) | Ratings Change | Super Bowl Odds |
| 1. | Buffalo Bills | 8 | 2-1 (2-1) | -.5 | +400 |
| 2. | Philadelphia Eagles | 5.5 | 3-0 (2-1) | +1.5 | +800 |
| 3. | Kansas City Chiefs | 5.5 | 2-1 (1-2) | -.5 | +750 |
| 4. | Green Bay Packers | 5 | 2-1 (2-1) | +.5 | +900 |
| 5. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4.5 | 2-1 (2-1) | — | +1000 |
| 6. | Los Angeles Rams | 4.5 | 2-1 (1-2) | +.5 | +1500 |
| 7. | Baltimore Ravens | 4 | 2-1 (2-1) | +.5 | +1800 |
| 8. | Los Angeles Chargers | 3.5 | 1-2 (2-1) | -1.5 | +2200 |
| 9. | Miami Dolphins | 3 | 3-0 (3-0) | +.5 | +1800 |
| 10. | San Francisco 49ers | 3 | 1-2 (1-2) | -.5 | +1800 |
| 11. | Cincinnati Bengals | 2.5 | 1-2 (1-2) | +.5 | +3000 |
| 12. | Denver Broncos | 2 | 2-1 (1-2) | — | +2500 |
| 13. | Minnesota Vikings | 1.5 | 2-1 (1-2) | — | +2800 |
| 14. | Cleveland Browns | 1 | 2-1 (2-1) | +1 | +5000 |
| 15. | Indianapolis Colts | 1 | 1-1-1 (1-2) | +.5 | +3500 |
| 16. | Jacksonville Jaguars | .5 | 2-1 (2-1) | +2 | +6000 |
| 17. | New Orleans Saints | 0 | 1-2 (0-3) | -1 | +7000 |
| 18. | Las Vegas Raiders | 0 | 0-3 (0-3) | -1 | +7000 |
| 19. | Dallas Cowboys | -.5 | 2-1 (2-1) | +1.5 | +3000 |
| 20. | Tennessee Titans | -.5 | 1-2 (1-2) | +.5 | +8000 |
| 21. | Detroit Lions | -1 | 1-2 (3-0) | — | +8000 |
| 22. | Carolina Panthers | -1.5 | 1-2 (1-2) | +.5 | +10000 |
| 23. | Arizona Cardinals | -2 | 1-2 (1-2) | -.5 | +7000 |
| 24. | Washington Commanders | -2 | 1-2 (1-2) | -.5 | +15000 |
| 25. | New York Giants | -2 | 2-1 (2-1) | -1 | +10000 |
| 26. | Atlanta Falcons | -2.5 | 1-2 (3-0) | +.5 | +30000 |
| 27. | Pittsburgh Steelers | -2.5 | 1-2 (1-1-1) | -1 | +15000 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | -3 | 1-2 (0-2-1) | -2.5 | +10000 |
| 29. | Chicago Bears | -3.5 | 2-1 (1-1-1) | +.5 | +25000 |
| 30. | New York Jets | -4 | 1-2 (1-2) | — | +30000 |
| 31. | Seattle Seahawks | -4 | 1-2 (1-2) | -.5 | +50000 |
| 32. | Houston Texans | -4 | 0-2-1 (2-0-1) | -.5 | +50000 |
Betting Notes
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The Buffalo Bills lost S Micah Hyde to a season-ending neck injury before Week 3. He was named a second-team All-Pro safety last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs outgained the Colts by a whopping 1.5 yards per play, but they went just 3-for-10 on the third downs.
Jalen Hurts threw for three TDs for the first time since the 2021 season opener, and his back-to-back 300-yard passing games in Weeks 2-3 equals his 300-yard games in 16 tries last season.
The Green Bay Packers scored touchdowns on their first two drives against the Buccaneers and Aaron Jones fumbled at the goal line on their next drive. The Packers would manage no points and just three first downs on their final eight drives of Week 3.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored just three total touchdowns in their first three games. Tom Brady hit 3+ TD passes in 8-of-17 regular season games last season.
The Los Angeles Rams have won 11 of their first 12 games (10-1-1 ATS) against the Cardinals under HC Sean McVay.
The Los Angles Chargers lost LT Rashawn Slater for the season to a torn biceps injury. He was named a second-team All-Pro selection as a rookie last season. They’ll also lose pass rusher Joey Bosa for a significant chunk of time to a groin injury.
Lamar Jackson became the first player in the Super Bowl era to throw for 3+ touchdowns and run for 100+ yards in consecutive games.
The San Francisco 49ers lost LT Trent Williams to a high-ankle sprain, which will likely keep him out for several weeks. He’s coming off first-team All-Pro honors in 2021.
The Cincinnati Bengals fell behind by two TDs in each of their first two losses to open the season, but Joe Burrow completed 8/10 passes for 95 yards and a TD on the opening drive in a victory in Week 3.
The Miami Dolphins are the only undefeated team remaining in the AFC despite the Bills running 51 more plays (90 to 39) and outgaining them by 287 yards (497 to 212).
The Denver Broncos have yet to score more than 16 points and more than a touchdown in each of their first three games.
The Minnesota Vikings will leave September with their first winning record since they opened 2016 with a 3-0 record.
Amari Cooper has consecutive 100-yard games for the first time since October 2016, and he had just two 100-yard games in 16 games in his final season with the Cowboys.
The Indianapolis Colts snapped a four-game winless streak and a four-game ATS losing streak with their victory over the previously unbeaten Chiefs. Matt Ryan has already been sacked 12 times and he’s fumbled seven times through three contests.
The New Orleans Saints are 0-3 ATS through the first three weeks and new HC Dennis Allen is lucky to have a win after erasing a 16-point deficit in Week 1 against the Falcons.
The Jacksonville Jaguars snapped an 18-game road losing streak thanks to Trevor Lawrence throwing for three scores for the first time since his pro debut in the 2021 season opener.
The Las Vegas Raiders are the only 0-3 team in the NFL and all three losses have come in one-score contests. They went 7-2 in one-score games with four overtime victories in 2021.
The Tennessee Titans finally showed some signs of life in their victory over the Raiders, averaging 6.6 yards per play in their victory, which included Derrick Henry going for 25/143/1 scrimmage.
Cooper Rush moved to a career 3-0 filling in for Dak Prescott by orchestrating game-winning drives in the fourth quarter of each victory.
The Detroit Lions lost S Tracy Walker for the season to a torn Achilles. He signed a three-year extension with $16.9 million guaranteed last March.
The Arizona Cardinals have fallen behind by at least 13 points in the first half of each of their first three games.
The Carolina Panthers snapped a nine-game outright and ATS losing streak thanks to a defensive touchdown and a 67-yard touchdown pass, which was thrown at the line of scrimmage.
Daniel Jones absorbed five sacks and he was under pressure on 24 dropbacks, and the Giants were just the second team to fail to reach the red zone this season.
Carson Wentz had a terrible first meeting against his old team, absorbing nine sacks and passing for just 24 yards in the first half in a two-score loss to the Eagles.
The Pittsburgh Steelers went 1 of 9 on third downs in their loss to the Cleveland Browns, and they managed just 54 yards on their first three possessions in the second half.
The Atlanta Falcons are a perfect 3-0 ATS and they got their first outright win of 2022 thanks to Cordarrelle Patterson running for a career-high 141 yards and one touchdown against the Seahawks.
Mac Jones is looking at a multi-week absence after suffering a severe high-ankle sprain on his final pass attempt of Week 3.
The Justin Fields-led Chicago Bears are the first team with fewer than 10 completed passes in three straight games since the Tim Tebow-led Broncos did it back in 2011 (per our Joe Dolan).
Geno Smith threw for 325 yards and two TDs in a loss to the Falcons, which was just the fourth time he’s thrown for 300+ yards and the first time since he was with the Jets in 2014.
The New York Jets could get Zach Wilson back from his preseason knee injury this week. His backup Joe Flacco threw two INTs and lost two fumbles in their loss to the Bengals.
The Houston Texans and Raiders are the only two winless teams remaining in the league, but the Texans have yet to drop a game ATS with a 2-0-1 record through three contests.
Futures Market
Super Bowl Odds
The Buffalo Bills odds held steady at +400 despite falling in Week 3 to the Miami Dolphins, who saw their odds shrink from +2500 to +1800 as the only remaining undefeated team in the AFC. The Philadelphia Eagles (+1200 to +800) have been the quickest risers in the early going, and they’re now the third favorites behind only the Bills and Kansas City Chiefs (+650 to +750). The Eagles jumped ahead of the Green Bay Packers (+1200 to +900), who knocked the Tamp Bay Buccaneers (+750 to +1000) from first to the third favorite in the NFC.
The Jacksonville Jaguars (+10000 to +6000) had the most impressive victory of Week 3, throttling the Los Angeles Chargers (+1500 to +2200) by 28 points to snap their 18-game road losing streak. I wagered on the Chargers to win the Super Bowl at +2500 odds last February, but they’ve had one of the worst runouts to open the year with Rashawn Slater (biceps) done for the season and Joey Bosa (groin) picking up a significant injury. Justin Herbert (ribs), Keenan Allen (hamstring), and J.C. Jackson (ankle) have also struggled to stay on the field leading to a 1-2 record through three weeks.
The bizarre preseason bandwagon for the New Orleans Saints (+4000 to +7000) is quickly emptying after a lifeless performance against the Carolina Panthers (+25000 to +10000). Dennis Allen’s squad allowed a defensive score and a 67-yard touchdown throw at the line of scrimmage in their eight-point loss to Carolina. The Cleveland Browns (+6000 to +5000) are a meltdown against the Jets away from being undefeated, and they’re the best value on the board with Jacoby Brissett playing better than he ever did with the Dolphins last season. He’s been an upgrade over Baker Mayfield and the schedule is breaking right for them (@Atl, LAC, NE) to hold their own until Deshaun Watson returns in Week 13.
MVP, Offensive Rookie of the Year, and Defensive Rookie of the Year
Jalen Hurts (+800 to +600) continued his ascension in the MVP race, supplanting Patrick Mahomes (+500 to +700) as the second favorite behind Josh Allen (+350 to +300). Hurts has already hit 300+ passing yards twice this season, which is as many times he hit that mark as he did in all of 2021. Lamar Jackson (+1200 to +700) has been the other fast riser to open the season, which makes this bettor happy since he has a +2800 ticket on him. He seems to be setting a new NFL record with every passing performance to open the year. Trevor Lawrence (+4000 to +3000) remains a relative longshot to win the award, but he could make another big jump if he’s able to knock off the Eagles this week.
The Offensive Rookie of the Year award had no clear top contenders after the season opener, but Drake London (+600 to +450) has clearly emerged at the top of the pack. He’s posted 12+ FP in each of his first three games after finishing with 3/54/1 receiving on six targets against the Seahawks. Chris Olave (+1200 to +800) and Romeo Doubs (+1600 to +800) each made big jumps behind London this week. Olave has seen a league-high 26 targets for an absolutely insane 505 air yards the last two weeks, while Doubs stepped into a starting role and produced 8/73/1 receiving with Aaron Rodgers.
On the defensive side, Devin Lloyd (+2000 to +400) took a massive jump into the second-favorite spot behind Aidan Hutchinson (+250 to +35). The former Utah LB has an INT in back-to-back games for Jacksonville’s revitalized defense, which has held the Colts and Chargers to a combined 10 points the last two weeks.
