Welcome to a brand new feature on Fantasy Points! Each week, I’ll go through some of my favorite Underdog Fantasy props so we can make a parlay (or multiple) based on those picks! It is very important to note that for Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em, you can’t just play one single prop by itself, you need to have at least a two-team parlay, so there won’t be any one bet that I emphasize more than the others.
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Before we get going, a quick overview of how Underdog Fantasy scoring rolls: half-PPR scoring, passing yards points are 1 point per every 25 yards, 4-point passing touchdowns, -1 point for an interception. Since this typically drops on Fridays, this will not include a Thursday Night Football prop. Let’s dive right into this week’s props!
Current Record: 26-13-1; Week 13: 2-1
Jared Goff OVER 34.5 Passing Attempts
Do me a favor. Take yourself over to any statistical site and look up the home/away splits for Goff this season and tell me what you see. Your mind will be BLOWN. Let’s break it down just to drive the point home.
Goff at home has 17 passing touchdowns to only TWO on the road, which is an absolutely wild split. Not only that though, he is also averaging nearly 36 passing attempts per game at home this season in 7 games and has gone over this number 5 of those 7 games.
This game against the Vikings at home should be a barnburner in the dome, and it has the highest total of the week at 51.5 points. I’m backing Goff to continue throwing the ball in this one against the Vikings’ horrid passing defense (that Goff threw 41 times against in September).
Tony Pollard OVER 70.5 Rushing Yards
Pollard is obviously one of the most exciting running backs in football right now, since he has finally taken over the Dallas backfield from Ezekiel Elliott. He gets the best matchup this season for RBs in Houston this week and should definitely hit this number.
Simple things first, the Texans allow nearly 145 rushing yards per game, but of course we have to account for Elliott in this backfield as well. TWELVE different running backs over the course of this season have rushed for 70 or more yards against the Texans as well.
Since starting to play 40+% of the snaps, Pollard has been on fire. He has rushed for this many yards in 5 of his last 6 games and with star LT Tyron Smith back in action for this game, I’d look for Pollard to slam through this number once again.
Chris Godwin OVER 6.0 Receptions
Godwin has been ELECTRIC since returning from his ACL injury earlier this season. In the 9 previous games thast he has played, he has had 6 or more receptions in every.single.game. That’s efficiency to a T right there.
Godwin draws the San Francisco 49ers this weekend, and while that is normally a daunting matchup for many players, check the underlying numbers. The 49ers are surprisingly weak against slot wide receivers, giving up 17.1 fantasy points per game on average in the last six weeks to the position, per Razzball data.
The 49ers defense is one of the more stout against running backs in general, so I expect Tom Brady to be throwing a healthy amount in a game that the Buccaneers desperately want to win for playoff positioning. Godwin should be his normally reliable self here.
When we load all of these plays into Underdog Fantasy’s prop parlay machine, we receive 6-1 odds on this parlay, meaning if you bet $100 and all three legs hit, you will win $600 total!
Alternatively, you can choose to get Insurance on your parlay, for no additional cost. With insurance, if one of your legs doesn’t hit but the other two do, you get paid at 1-1 odds, while winning at 3-1 odds if you still hit all three legs.