DFS research can be tough. We may not always know what to look for, or where to look for it.
But this article helps solve that problem – by providing some early-week research to give readers solid footing for the upcoming Week 14 DFS slate.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.0) @ Tennessee Titans (O/U: 41.5)
Didn't show up in the box score (7.6 fantasy points) but Travis Etienne had an awesome role coming back from injury:— Jake Tribbey (@JakeTribbey) December 5, 2022
88% of snaps
94% of backfield touches
100% of backfield red zone touches
73% of backfield routes
Trevor Lawrence was PFF’s 2nd-highest graded passer from Week 9 (90.3 passing grade) to Week 12. But he’s been incredibly streaky this season. He’s posted a PFF passing grade of 63.3 or worse in seven of his 12 games this season, and from weeks 4 through 8, he was PFF’s worst-graded QB (44.7) among the passers with at least 100 attempts. He’s a tempting target in GPPs when his ownership drifts toward zero, but when chalky, he’s incredibly risky.
Marvin Jones has been phased out as of late. He’s still a full-time player, but the targets aren’t there. Zay Jones (26%) and Christian Kirk (28%) have both dominated target share since Week 9, while Marvin Jones (12%) has been an afterthought with just 16 total targets over his last four games.
Derrick Henry has averaged 24.7 FPG in wins, but just 13.3 FPG in losses since 2019. The Titans implied win probability this week is 65%.
Robert Woods earned at least a 15% target share in every game he’s played this season without Treylon Burks, granted that amounted to just 15 targets over four games. He’s the de facto WR1 here, but there’s valid reason to seriously doubt the upside.
Chig Okonkwo posted a better route% (57%) than Austin Hooper (54%) for the 2nd time all season. His usage is slowly ticking up, hitting at least a 20% target share in three of his last six games. He’s a solid punt option at $2,700 this week.
The Titans are the softest schedule-adjusted matchup for QBs through the air (+3.5 passing FPG) and the softest matchup for WRs (+7.5 FPG). The perfect get-right spot for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars WRs.
The Jaguars are the 6th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs (+2.3 FPG). Over the last five weeks, Jacksonville is the 3rd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs (+6.0 FPG). An underrated spot for Nick Westbrook-Ikhine.
Philadelphia Eagles (-7.0) @ New York Giants (O/U: 45.5)
Since the start of 2021, Jalen Hurts averages 27.5 FPG as a favorite of 3.0 points or more (15 instances), which is just 0.2 FPG away from the greatest QB fantasy season ever (2019 Lamar Jackson).
Hurts has five games this season with 15 or more rushing attempts (including each of his last two games). That ties 2019 Lamar Jackson for the most games with 15 or more rush attempts by a QB all-time, and Hurts still has five games left.
Hurts has 42 red zone rush attempts, which ties 2020 Cam Newton for the most since 2012, which is as far back as I can find data for QB red zone rushing. Hurts still has five games remaining, granted he may not need to play in all those games for Philadelphia to secure a playoff bye.
Miles Sanders has earned just 56% of backfield XFP over the last three weeks, averaging 12.6 XFP/G. He jumps out as overpriced relative to his usage, at $6,200.
Quez Watkins’ usage has more than doubled since Dallas Goedert went down. He’s averaged 8.7 XFP/G over the last three weeks, compared to 4.0 XFP in his first nine games. Assuming he suits up this week, he’s in play in Hurts’ stacks at just $3,800.
DeVonta Smith leads the team in both target share (32%) and XFP/G (14.5) since Week 10. He’s a sneakier pairing with Hurts than AJ Brown in tournaments at just $6,300.
Saquon Barkley’s role has dipped slightly, averaging 15.6 XFP/G over the last three weeks compared to 19.1 XFP/G in his first nine games. It’s probably just variance, but something to keep an eye on.
Richie James was limited to just a 43% route share and 11% target share in Week 13, perhaps due to the knee injury that caused him to enter that game with a questionable designation. Still, it’s hard to be optimistic about his role going forward.
Isaiah Hodgins earned a season-high route share (83%) and target share (21%) in Week 13. It could be argued he’s the No. 2 WR in New York, which keeps him in play as a punt at just $3,500.
The Giants are the 6th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (+2.7 FPG), setting up a solid matchup for both AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith.
The Eagles are a brutal matchup for opposing QBs, allowing the 3rd-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG (-4.1). They are similarly tough against outside WRs, allowing -6.2 schedule-adjusted FPG (toughest). Perhaps this will funnel targets to slot man Richie James, but he’s tough to trust given his part-time role last week.
New York Jets (+9.0) @ Buffalo Bills (O/U: 44.0)
Josh Allen’s best rushing game of the season (86 yards, 2 TDs) came against the New York Jets in Week 9. Coincidentally, it was also his worst passing game of the season (205 yards, 0 TDs, 2 interceptions).
Some were speculating Allen’s rushing workload could be reduced due to his elbow injury and the Bills' playoff positioning. That just hasn’t been true, as the 18 carries Allen has recorded over the last two weeks is a season-high for him over any two week stretch.
That said, Buffalo has dialed back on throwing the ball as of late, recording a +1.8% pass rate over expectation since Week 11. Their PROE was +13.9% before Week 10.
Bills RB usage has finally drifted towards a committee. In Week 13, James Cook led the backfield in XFP (15.8), while Devin Singletary posted 12.1 XFP and Nyheim Hines earned 5.1 XFP (his season-high with Buffalo). Cook also led the way in red zone carries (4) and route share (41%), suggesting he has the edge as the lead RB going forward.
Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs both had their 2nd-worst fantasy outings of the year against New York in Week 9. This is the toughest passing matchup for this talented offense (which will be discussed more below).
The targets haven’t been there lately, but Dawson Knox posted his best route share of the season (86%) in Week 13. It was the 3rd-highest route share by any TE last week and an encouraging sign for Knox’s upside as we head into the final stretch of the season.
Mike White has five career starts, finishing as QB8, QB6, QB27, QB4, and QB22. He’s either been a mid- to high-end QB1, or posted a useless score. The ideal GPP QB.
Zonovan Knight led the Jets’ backfield, and finished 4th among all RBs with 21.0 XFP in Week 13. He’s the starter going forward and profiles as chalk this week at just $5,100 on DraftKings.
Garrett Wilson is a league winner…
Garrett Wilson w/out Zach Wilson— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) December 6, 2022
11.0 targets per game
9.6 first read targets per game
117.0 air yards per game
If over the full season, those numbers would rank:
- Elijah Moore posted a very encouraging 72% route share in Week 13 – his best mark since Week 5. The 14.1 FPG and 6.7 targets per game Moore averages without Zach Wilson would rank 13th and 24th among slate-eligible WRs. He’s a fantastic value at just $3,500 (WR50) on DraftKings this week.
The Jets are the 5th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (-3.4 FPG) and the 2nd-toughest matchup for opposing outside WRs (-5.3) while ranking much closer to neutral against slot WRs (-0.4 FPG) and TEs (-0.5 FPG). That could funnel passing volume away from Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis to Isaiah McKenzie and Dawson Knox.
The Jets also allow the 3rd-fewest deep throw% (6.8%), which surely hurts Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs – both of whom rank top-7 in deep targets per game
The Bills have been the 8th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs on the ground (+3.1 FPG) since Week 8, suggesting a strong matchup for Zonovan Knight.
Buffalo has also been the 6th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (+2.7 FPG), so this is a plus matchup for Garrett Wilson.
Baltimore Ravens (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (O/U: 37.0)
Lamar Jackson is dealing with a knee injury, setting up Tyler Huntley’s first potential start of the season. In Huntley’s four starts last season, he averaged 18.3 FPG (with a high of 35.9), 9.3 carries per game, and 61.0 rushing YPG. This season, those numbers would rank 11th (ahead of Justin Herbert), 3rd (ahead of Josh Allen), and 3rd (ahead of Jalen Hurts).
Among QBs with at least 50 passing attempts from 2017 to 2021, nobody has targeted TEs at a higher rate than Tyler Huntley (36%).
Mark Andrews averages 18.6 FPG, 10.0 targets per game, and 85.5 YPG in his 7 career games where Huntley has thrown more than 10 passes. That’s a 35% improvement, a 30% improvement, and a 44% improvement over his current 2022 averages.
Kenny Pickett has been playing better as of late, posing his best (86.3) and 2nd-best (72.5) PFF passing grades in his last two games. He hasn’t exceeded 20.0 fantasy points this season, but he’s rushing enough (5.3 carries per game) to make him worth considering in the largest GPPs of the slate, given the improvement he’s shown as a passer.
Najee Harris entered Week 13 extremely questionable but earned a backfield-leading 66% snap share and 9.3 XFP. I’m not excited to play him (3.8 career YPC), but he’s still the lead RB in Pittsburgh.
Diontae Johnson ranks 7th in targets (105) and 40th in receiving yards (565)— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) December 6, 2022
Among all WRs with at least as many targets, this is the 17th-worst season by YPT (5.4) since targets became a stat https://t.co/keuWJXh4ky
- Pat Freiermuth has been the Steelers’ most targeted played on a per-route basis since Chase Claypool was traded, posting a 0.26 TPRR. And Freiermuth is close to being the leader in receiving usage in that time frame, earning 11.6 XFP/G compared to 12.8 XFP/G for Diontae Johnson and 10.3 XFP/G for George Pickens.
Baltimore is the 6th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (+2.7 FPG) and the 7th-softest matchup for opposing TEs (+1.5 FPG). A solid opportunity for these Pittsburgh pass catchers.
The Ravens are the 2nd-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs on the ground (-5.0 rushing FPG). Another reason to avoid the Steelers’ backfield.
The Steelers are the 10th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing TEs (+1.0 FPG) over the full season and the 2nd-softest matchup for TEs since Week 8 (+5.3 FPG) – suggesting a strong matchup for Mark Andrews.
Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) @ Detroit Lions (O/U: 53.0)
Jared Goff has been drastically more effective at home this season, averaging 23.0 FPG (QB4) compared to just 12.0 FPG (QB33) on the road.
Three of Goff’s four best DraftKings scores have come when his implied team total is 27.0 or higher. He averages 21.1 DraftKings FPG in those games, which ranks 6th-best among slate-eligible QBs.
In Week 13, D’Andre Swift led the backfield with a 51% snap share, 18 opportunities, and 6 red zone opportunities – scoring 21.1 fantasy points (his best game since Week 1) on a 22.4 XFP workload (his best workload of the year by 3.8 XFP).
Seven of Swift’s 10 best career games have come in contests with a total of 48.0 or more, and he averages 22.1 DraftKings FPG in games with an implied team total over 26.0 (the Lions’ implied team total this week is 27.25). 22.1 DraftKings FPG would rank best (by 1.7 FPG) among slate-eligible RBs. He’s easily one of my favorite plays of the slate.
Excluding games where Amon-Ra St. Brown suffered an injury or was on the injury report listed as questionable, he’s averaging 10.9 targets and 24.6 FPG over his last 13 games. He’s hit at least 15.0 fantasy points in 12 of 13 and double-digit targets in 11 of 13. Over the full season, 24.6 FPG would lead all WRs (by 2.0 FPG), and 10.9 targets per game would rank 2nd.
That’s very comparable to 2021 Cooper Kupp (25.9 FPG and 11.2 targets per game), but with one key difference: Kupp’s average DraftKings price in his final 8 games of 2021 was $9,300 – $1,500 more than St. Brown’s Week 14 price tag.
I would expect a very slow ramp-up for Jameson Williams, who ran just 2 routes and earned 1 target in his debut.
Kalif Raymond (19% route share in Week 13) is clearly being phased out in favor of Josh Reynolds (65% route share) and DJ Chark (84% route share). Chark is particularly interesting, given he’s hit double-digit XFP in his last two games and has a team-leading aDOT of 18.6.
Kirk Cousins averages 23.0 DraftKings FPG in games with a total of 50.0 or higher – a mark that would rank 6th-best among slate-eligible QBs.
Dalvin Cook averages 22.1 DraftKings FPG in games with a total of 50.0 or higher, which leads all slate-eligible RBs.
Only Stefon Diggs and Tyreek Hill have as many 20.0 XFP games as Justin Jefferson (6).
Jefferson has played in 25 career games with an implied team total of 24.0 or more, averaging 22.4 DraftKings FPG in those contests and scoring over 38.0 DraftKings points in 12% of those games.
The Lions are the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+5.7 FPG) and the 6th-softest matchup for opposing WRs (+2.9 FPG) over the full season. But that QB number is a bit misleading, as Detroit has only been the 10th-softest matchup for opposing QBs through the air (+1.3 FPG). So, it’s an above-average, but not elite, matchup for Kirk Cousins.
Since firing defensive backs coach Aubrey Pleasant after Week 8, the Lions have been a major slot funnel, allowing the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing slot WRs (+6.0 FPG). Maybe we should consider this an underrated spot for Adam Thielen.
Minnesota has been the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (+6.8 FPG). Fire up DJ Chark.
The Vikings are the 9th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs through the air (+1.4 passing FPG). A favorable matchup for Jared Goff.
And Minnesota is the 4th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for receiving RBs (+2.9 receiving FPG), so we could call this the ideal spot for D’Andre Swift.
Cleveland Browns (+6.0) @ Cincinnati Bengals (O/U: 47.0)
Deshaun Watson flopped in his first start since 2020, scoring just 5.3 fantasy points. Maybe we shouldn’t be surprised, it was his first regular season game in 700 days.
Interestingly, Cleveland posted their lowest pass rate over expectation of the season (-13.1%) in Week 13. Were they trying to hide Watson? Unlikely, but possible, I suppose.
But we can’t forget just how talented Watson is. He’s played three full NFL seasons across his career, finishing as the QB6 (2020), QB2 (2019), and the QB6 (2018) – averaging 22.3 FPG across that sample (QB6 this season).
Still, this isn’t exactly the ideal spot for Watson to return to elite form, especially for fantasy. He averages 22.0 FPG as an underdog of 4.0 points or more, compared to 25.1 FPG outside of that split.
Nick Chubb has also historically struggled in these spots, averaging just 12.6 FPG as an underdog of 4.0 points or more, and 16.1 FPG in losses. The Browns implied win probability is 32%.
And I can’t say I’m very interested in Kareem Hunt, as he’s posted a concerningly low 36% route share over his last four games, earning just 7 total targets. For perspective, Chubb posted a 34% route share and 9 total targets in that same time span.
Amari Cooper has performed well in negative gamescript, averaging 17.1 FPG in losses of 4.0 points or more since 2019, compared to 13.7 FPG outside of that split.
David Njoku looks to be back this week. He’s averaged 11.9 XFP/G, 14.2 FPG, 68.0 YPG, 7.2 targets per game, and 50.5 air yards per game over his last 6 games with a route share over 45%. Among slate-elgible TEs, those numbers rank 4th, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, and 6th. Njoku is priced as the TE8 on DraftKings ($3,900), presenting strong value.
Joe Burrow has been on fire since Week 6, averaging 25.6 FPG (QB2) and 2.3 passing TDs per game (1st). Cincinnati has posted a +10.9% pass rate over expectation over that stretch – a mark that would rank 2nd-best among all teams over the full season.
If Joe Mixon suits up, we can’t forget he’s the RB2 by XFP/G (19.2) and averages 20.6 FPG (RB3) in wins across his career – an important note given Cincinnati’s 72% implied win probability.
Hayden Hurst is doubtful, leaving Mitchell Wilcox as the presumptive starting TE after he earned a 56% route share last week. He’s in play as a punt option at just $2,700.
Cleveland is an extremely exploitable run defense, allowing the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+3.3) to opposing RBs alongside the most yards before contact per rush (2.1). A great spot for the Bengals ground game.
The Browns are also the single-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs (-4.8 FPG), but the 4th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (+3.5 FPG). A bad matchup for Tyler Boyd, but an excellent one for Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase.
The Bengals are the 8th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (-2.3 FPG), the 6th-toughest matchup for opposing outside WRs (-3.5 FPG), and the 5th-toughest matchup for opposing TEs (-2.1 FPG). A difficult overall matchup for the Cleveland passing attack.
Houston Texans (+16.5) @ Dallas Cowboys (O/U: 45.5)
Dameon Pierce has earned double-digit XFP in every game he’s played since Week 1. The problem, though, lies in his rather limited receiving role, as he averages just 10.1 FPG in losses of 12.0 points or more. Even with Rex Burkhead out in Week 13, Pierce posted a route share of just 33% and the same target share (8.1%) as Dare Ogunbowale.
Nico Collins posted a very encouraging 20.2 XFP in Week 13, and has averaged 15.4 XFP/G over the last four weeks. 15.4 XFP/G would rank 11th-best among slate-eligble WRs, but Collins is priced as the WR34 – presenting obvious value.
Passing volume is an issue for Dak Prescott, especially in these potential blowouts. He’s attempted 30 or fewer passes in six of his seven games this season. And in wins of 10 points or more, Prescott averages just 30.8 pass attempts per game over the last two seasons, compared to 40.7 attempts per game in all other situations.
Tony Pollard has earned 50% of backfield XFP over the last three weeks compared to 42% for Ezekiel Elliott. So Pollard’s usage is only slightly better, but he’s drastically more efficient.
Among RBs with at least 100 rushes, Pollard ranks 1st in explosive play% (10.1%), 2nd in YPC (5.8), 1st in yards after contact per attempt (4.0), and 1st in YPC on runs without backfield contact (8.7). Elliott ranks 25th, 24th, 32nd, and 26th in those same categories, respectively (of 38 qualifiers).
Over the last two seasons, Dalton Schultz averages 12.7 FPG with Dak Prescott in the lineup but just 1.7 FPG in all other games. 12.7 FPG ranks 3rd-best among slate-eligible TEs.
Dallas is the 2nd-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (-4.9 FPG). Don’t expect much out of Davis Mills this week.
Houston is the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs on the ground (+5.5 FPG), allowing the 2nd-most YAC (1,174), and the most missed tackles (107). The perfect matchup for Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard.
The Texans are difficult to throw against, ranking as the toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (-4.9 FPG) and the toughest matchup for opposing WRs (-6.0 FPG). Expect Dallas to lean run-heavy in this contest.
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) @ Denver Broncos (O/U: 43.5)
The Denver Broncos are averaging just 13.8 PPG. That makes them the 2nd-worst offense of the last decade, ahead of only the 2012 Chiefs (who went 2-14).
The only Denver player I can consider playable is Greg Dulcich. Dulcich leads all TEs in deep targets per game (1.7) and ranks 3rd among slate-eligible TEs in air yards per game (67.1) and 8th in XFP/G (9.5). He’s priced as the TE11 ($3,400), presenting clear value on DraftKings.
Most Twitter discourse around the KC backfield revolves around Isiah Pacheco (10.2 XFP in Week 13). But Jerick McKinnon is earning better usage (14.4 XFP in Week 13)…
Isiah Pacheco is not the KC RB you want.— Chris Wecht (@ChrisWechtFF) December 6, 2022
He played only 46% of the passing snaps
He played only 14% of the RZ snaps after playing 57% in WK12.
He played 0 of 6 KC goal line snaps in WK13
McKinnon handled 79% of the RZ snaps and 100% of the GL snaps
Skyy Moore has exceeded a 28% route share in one game (Week 11) when JuJu Smith-Schuster was inactive. With Smith-Schuster back, Moore is unlikely to bust out of his part-time role.
Travis Kelce is priced as the WR6 ($7,600 on DraftKings), but he would rank 3rd among slate-eligible WRs in FPG (20.4), 1st in red zone opportunities per game (2.5), and 1st in XTD/G (0.8). He’s still too cheap.
The Broncos are the 3rd-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (-5.0 FPG), but they are a very neutral matchup for both slot WRs (+0.4 FPG) and TEs (-0.2 FPG). So, expect passing volume to be funneled to Travis Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Denver is also the 6th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (-3.2 FPG), lowering Patrick Mahomes’ expectation.
KC is the 7th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+3.0 FPG), so maybe this is the week Russell Wilson can get this offense going (probably not).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (O/U: 37.0)
- Something is fundamentally broken with the Buccaneers passing game, but it’s hard to say what.
Bucs WRs by XFP (expected fantasy points) over the last eight weeks:— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) December 7, 2022
Chris Godwin - WR5
Mike Evans - WR7
Godwin - WR16
Evans - WR36
- Brady’s kryptonite has always been pressure, but he’s the least pressured QB in the NFL (measured by pressure rate over expectation) among passers with at least 200 attempts.
- And Brady hasn’t been playing particularly poorly, ranking 8th among QBs in PFF passing grade (78.8) and perfectly neutral (-0.1%) in completion percentage over expectation.
- So, I think the best (and most realistic) bet is to anticipate positive regression from Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
- The Bucs’ backfield is a full-fledged committee now, as Leonard Fournette earned a 60% snap share, 16.2 XFP, and a 55% route share, while Rachaad White earned a 41% snap share, 17.3 XFP, and a 36% route share in Week 13. I still think Fournette has the slight usage edge overall, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see White’s role continue to grow, given he looks drastically better on film.
- With no Elijah Mitchell, Christian McCaffrey is easily the most valuable RB in fantasy football:
CMC (w/ 49ers, w/out Elijah Mitchell) vs. Austin Ekeler— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) December 6, 2022
+81% snap share vs. Ekeler's 64%
+72% route share vs. Ekeler's 55%
+17.5 carries/G vs. Ekeler's 11.5
+9.5 targets/G vs. Ekeler's 8.7
+147.5 YFS/G vs. Ekeler's 96.1
+28.8 XFP/G vs. Ekeler's 21.1
+31.8 FPG vs. Ekeler's 22.4 https://t.co/ayzJNKQ3Nw
Brock Purdy should be expected to post solid numbers in SF, given how easy the offense makes playing QB. SF has ranked 12th-, 14th-, 15th-, and 28th-best in total team YAC from 2018 to 2021 (128 qualifiers).
George Kittle hasn’t exceeded double-digit SFP since Week 7, which is concerning. Still, I’m willing to take some chances on him in DFS tournaments at his lowest DraftKings price point ($4,300) since Week 4 of 2018 given his nuclear upside (Kittle is responsible for three of the top nine TE DraftKings performances since 2019).
Brandon Aiyuk has earned more XFP than Deebo Samuel in six of the 11 games they’ve played together. Aiyuk is more appealing for tournaments, given he’s $300 cheaper on DraftKings, but both WRs are viable.
Tampa Bay is the 6th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs (-2.2 FPG).
The Bucs are the 3rd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs (+2.7 FPG), setting up a plus matchup for 49ers slot man Jauan Jennings.
The 49ers are the 4th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (-3.9 FPG), the single-toughest matchup for opposing RBs (-4.5 FPG), and the 3rd-toughest matchup for opposing TEs (-3.4 FPG). This should funnel volume to the Buccaneers' WRs, but it could just spell trouble for the offense as a whole.
Carolina Panthers (+4.0) @ Seattle Seahawks (O/U: 43.5)
Geno Smith leads the NFL in completion percentage over expectation (+6.0%), ranks 2nd in accurate throw % (57.7%), 2nd in Wow throw % (6.9%), and 2nd in passer rating (108.7). He’s been insanely good this season, and while he won’t win the award, he should be in the conversation for MVP.
And because of Smith’s outstanding play, Seattle is a pass-first offense, averaging a +10.7% pass rate over expectation since Week 8 – a mark that would rank 3rd-best among all teams over the full season.
The Seattle RB situation is very up in the air this week…
“High ankle ligament issue” is such a Pete Carroll thing to say..— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) December 7, 2022
I don’t expect Kenneth Walker to play this week, and doubtful DeeJay Dallas plays either with a high ankle sprain.
Travis Homer returned to practice today though. Tony Jones also a factor. https://t.co/DmnaACWrbl
- Tony Jones led the backfield in XFP in Week 13 (10.6), earning a 30% route share, and leading the backfield with 4 targets. I’d be willing to target Jones at just $4,800 if both Walker and DeeJay Dallas sit, given he should command the entirety of the early-down role.
D'Onta Foreman's expected half PPR points— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) December 7, 2022
In 2 big losses: 6.8 per game
In 4 wins or close games: 16.5 per game
- DJ Moore averages 15.1 XFP in games where Baker Mayfield didn’t start, including a 14.4 XFP performance in Sam Darnold’s Week 12 start. 15.1 XFP/G ranks 11th-best among slate-eligible WRs, yet Moore is priced as the WR19 ($5,400) on DraftKings.
The Panthers are the 7th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs (+2.3 FPG). A good spot for whoever mans the backfield in Seattle.
The Seahawks are the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs (+4.2 FPG) and the 5th-toughest matchup for opposing WRs (-3.6 FPG). That should funnel volume away from DJ Moore and to D’Onta Foreman.