Welcome to a brand new feature on Fantasy Points! Each week, I’ll go through some of my favorite Underdog Fantasy props so we can make a parlay (or multiple) based on those picks! It is very important to note that for Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em, you can’t just play one single prop by itself, you need to have at least a two-team parlay, so there won’t be any one bet that I emphasize more than the others.
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Before we get going, a quick overview of how Underdog Fantasy scoring rolls: half-PPR scoring, passing yards points are 1 point per every 25 yards, 4-point passing touchdowns, -1 point for an interception. Since this typically drops on Fridays, this will not include a Thursday Night Football prop. Let’s dive right into this week’s props!
Current Record: 19-11-1; Week 10: 3-1
Kenny Pickett UNDER 29.5 Rushing Yards
I know Pickett has been running a lot more over the last couple weeks, but this number just feels a little too high. First of all, the Cincinnati Bengals do not allow quarterbacks to rush for high numbers. They have held every quarterback they’ve faced this season under 32 rushing yards except for Lamar Jackson, who they held to 58 yards, his third-lowest total of the season.
The Bengals don’t rank very high in bringing pressure, they rank 21st in the NFL in blitz rate at 22.1%. While Pickett has ran for 37 and 51 yards over the past two weeks, he hadn’t hit this number before then, and since the Bengals allow the 9th lowest rushing YPG to QBs at 14.3, I wouldn’t expect him to this week.
Cordarrelle Patterson OVER 44.5 Rushing Yards
Patterson was extremely annoyed that fantasy managers were not happy after he only got 5 carries in last week’s game against the Panthers, if this tweet was any indication. We, as rational fantasy fans, wrote back that we were more upset at Arthur Smith and that we knew he’d get the work cause he’s shown that he’s extremely dynamic.
This week is as good as any for it, as the Falcons draw the Bears this week, who are coming off the extremely unfortunate stat of scoring at least 29 points in three straight games but losing all of them. The Bears allow the 8th most rushing yards to running backs and with Patterson now 2 weeks removed from coming off of injured reserve, our thoughts are that he’ll spring into action and rip off a couple big runs this week.
Tyler Conklin OVER 26.5 Receiving Yards
This comes down to the Patriots against tight ends, and in a rarity for their defense this season, it has not been that good. They allow 11.7 fantasy points per game to tight ends, and while a lot of that comes from allowing 7 touchdowns against the position already this season, they also allow nearly 50 yards per game to TEs as well.
Conklin has already played the Patriots once this season, and he had his best game of the year against them, with 6 catches for 79 yards and 2 touchdowns in Week 8. I think he will be Zach Wilson’s preferred target once again this week.
When we load all of these plays into Underdog Fantasy’s prop parlay machine, we receive 6-1 odds on this parlay, meaning if you bet $100 and all four legs hit, you will win $600 total!
Alternatively, you can choose to get Insurance on your parlay, for no additional cost. With insurance, if one of your legs doesn’t hit but the other two do, you get paid at 1-1 odds, while winning at 3-1 odds if you still hit all four legs.