Supermodel Tyra Banks has amassed $95M in earnings throughout her 30-year career.
Similarly, I have a model. It’s super – a true thing of beauty. And, while it hasn’t earned $95M, it has made me quite a bit of money over the years.
That model is the DFS SuperModel. Each week it will highlight the top 25 most mispriced players on both DraftKings and FanDuel. While I can’t tell you what exactly goes into the DFS SuperModel, I can tell you what does not go into it – namely, our projections. For the most part, you should be deferring to those – primarily the FPTS/$ column you’ll find here – or use both together.
That’s what I’ll be doing in this article, using both resources to help me highlight the top main slate values on DraftKings. Here’s Week 12:
Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks (vs. LVR)
I’d like to take this time to remind the reader that Smith has been legitimately excellent this season – almost as if he’s stolen Russell Wilson’s superpowers. From a fantasy perspective, Smith ranks 9th in FPG (18.7), well ahead of names like Justin Herbert (17.1) and Tom Brady (15.5). From a real-football perspective, he ranks as PFF’s 5th highest-graded QB. And he not only leads the league in completion percentage over expectation (+7.9), but owns the 3rd-best mark from any QB this past decade.
Top QB Seasons by Completion % Over Expectation [Since 2012]— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 22, 2022
1. Philip Rivers, 2013
2. Russell Wilson, 2015
3. Geno Smith, 2022
385. Zach Wilson, 2022
409. Zach Wilson, 2021
Last / 413. David Blough, 2019https://t.co/uHl2WALH4P
And Smith draws an ideal Week 12 matchup, up against a Raiders defense ranking worst in passer rating allowed (106.4), worst in fantasy points allowed per dropback (0.52), and 2nd-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing QBs (+5.9).
Latavius Murray, RB, Denver Broncos (@ CAR)
Murray is not very good at football. But, luckily, in fantasy football, the RB position is almost totally driven by volume (with few exceptions) and efficiency is merely an added bonus. Last week Murray scored 17.2 fantasy points on a 17.0 XFP (9th-most at the position), despite handling only 56% of the backfield XFP. But now his backfield partner – Melvin Gordon – is no longer on the team. Chase Edmonds is also out for at least a few weeks with a high-ankle sprain. And Mike Boone is at least one more week away from returning.
And so, now it looks like Murray is staring at a highest-end bell cow workload up against a Panthers defense that ranks bottom-10 in YPC allowed (4.71) and rushing FPG allowed (15.9) to opposing RBs. Based on Murray’s projected touches, the plus matchup, and with this now being a Kubiak-led offense, Murray is glaringly one of the best overall values of the slate, priced as just the RB28 on DraftKings.
In 13 career seasons as an offensive coordinator, Gary Kubiak's offense has ranked top-12 in rushing yards 13 times. And top-5 10 times.— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 23, 2022
Going to hope Klint Kubiak is a chip off the old chip block, and will be bumping Denver RBs every week moving forward https://t.co/0AJeCjWS6h
James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals (vs. LAC)
Conner is fully back to being a highest-end bell cow, reprising the role he had at the end of last season when he averaged 23.6 FPG over his final 7 games to close out the year. Over the last two weeks, Conner has played on 86% of the team’s snaps (most by any RB over this span) while handling 92% of the backfield XFP (also most), and averaging 18.0 carries, 4.0 targets, 18.0 XFP/G, and 18.5 FPG.
And it’s hard not to drool over his upside with this workload and in this near-perfect matchup against a Chargers defense that ranks 3rd-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing RBs (+4.1), as well as worst overall in YPC allowed (5.75).
My only possible concern is that maybe we should be rooting for Kyler Murray to sit out another game. Because over the past two seasons, Conner averages 17.4 carries, 4.6 targets, and 22.8 FPG in the 5 games Colt McCoy has started. In all other games, he averages just 11.7 carries, 2.7 targets, and 13.5 FPG.
That’s a hole we can poke if he’s uber-chalky and we want a reason to fade him for tournaments. But, undoubtedly, he’s still one of the better values on the slate regardless of which QB gets the start.
Kenneth Walker, RB, Seattle Seahawks (vs. LVR)
Seattle’s RB1 averages 18.3 FPG (~RB6) over the team’s last 15 games, averaging 23.2 FPG (~RB1) in their 9 victories over this span.
Since Rashaad Penny was placed on injured reserve (Week 6), Walker is averaging 20.2 FPG (6th-most) on 19.6 carries (3rd-most) and 3.4 targets per game. He’s played on 76% of the team’s snaps (4th-most) over this span, while handling 84% of the backfield XFP (2nd-most).
Sure, he flopped in his last game, but he was saddled with negative gamescript in a brutal matchup against the Buccaneers. And even so, he handled 100% of the team’s backfield XFP – a feat that was accomplished only one other time thus far (Leonard Fournette, Week 3) – and hit a season-high in targets with 8 (twice as much as his previous season-high, set the week before).
Up against a Raiders defense that ranks 2nd-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing RBs (+4.4), and favored by 3.5-points, Walker is a clear top value. He ranks as the overall RB2 in our projections (19.6 proj. DK fantasy points) but is priced as just the RB8 on DraftKings ($6,900).
Jeffery Wilson, RB, Miami Dolphins (vs. HOU)
Wilson seems fairly well ahead of Raheem Mostert. After earning 55% of the team’s backfield XFP in Week 9, that jumped to 66% in Week 10 before the bye, with Wilson handling 17 carries and 6 targets in comparison to Mostert’s 8 and 4. For perspective, that was worth 18.0 XFP to Wilson, which ranked 8th-most among all RBs on the week.
Based on this good volume, the potency of this offense (which looks easily top-3 to me), and Wilson’s efficiency in this familiar scheme (6.54 YPC since joining the team), I wouldn’t be surprised if Wilson returns high-end RB2 value throughout the remainder of the season.
Weeks 1-6 the MIA Oline has a yards before contact per attempt of 1.13. 24th in the NFL— Chris Wecht (@ChrisWechtFF) November 22, 2022
Weeks 7-11 the MIA Oline is up to 2.46 YBCO/ATT. 3rd in the NFL
Jeff Wilson's YBCO/ATT on the 49ers = 2.11
Wilson's YBCO/ATT on the Dolphins = 3.65
And we should have him ranked a little bit higher than that this week. Gamescript should be excellent, given the 14.0-point spread in Miami’s favor. The matchup is generationally good, against a Houston defense that’s given up a league-high 23.2 rushing FPG to opposing RBs (+17% more than the next closest defense). And the oft-injured Mostert appears seriously banged up, listed as questionable due to a knee injury that has caused him to miss practice all week.
Priced as just the RB14 on DraftKings ($5,900), Wilson is glaringly a top value. And probably a must-play if Mostert sits out or is limited.
Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets (vs. CHI)
Earlier this week, I made Wilson the cover boy for the Week 12 Usage Report. You can read what I had to say there, but basically, it feels like the difference between Zach Wilson and just about any other QB is the difference between Wilson hitting 2.5X and 4.5X value this week. And indeed, Wilson would have been a strong value even if Zach Wilson were starting, but without him he’s a must-play, priced as just the WR42 on DraftKings, up against a Bears defense that’s given up the 7th-most fantasy points over expectation (+104%) to opposing WRs this season.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders (vs. ATL)
Since Taylor Heinecke took over for Carson Wentz in Week 7, McLaurin ranks: 3rd in target share (32%), 17th in XFP/G (14.1), and 16th in FPG (15.2). At his price tag of WR20 ($5,800), he’s clearly a strong value based on his XFP/G and FPG. But – based on his target share – he has the potential to go nuclear if the passing game can get rolling this week. And that’s something I’d want to be betting on. Atlanta ranks 5th-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing QBs (+3.9) and worst overall against WRs (+9.3). Granted, there’s a chance A.J. Terrell shadows, but he’s also really struggled this season, ranking 7th-worst of 80-qualifying CBs by fantasy points allowed per snap in coverage (0.35).
Joshua Palmer, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (@ ARI)
In his 7 healthy games where at least one of Keenan Allen or Mike Williams failed to play on at least 10% of the team’s snaps, Palmer averages 15.6 XFP/G (~WR12) and 17.6 FPG (~WR9). He’s priced as just the WR25 on DraftKings this week ($5,400).
And we see something similar from Mike Williams. In games Keenan Allen failed to play fewer than 33% of the team’s snaps, Williams averages 8.6 targets and 19.1 FPG (11 games). In all other games of his career, he averages just 5.3 targets and 8.6 FPG.
Basically, Justin Herbert is really good, and more than capable of supporting two high-end fantasy WRs. And Palmer, when given a chance, has performed much better than he’s been getting credit for. With Williams very likely out this week and Allen still banged up – he was supposed to be on a snap count last week – Palmer looks like a terrific value, even in spite of his bottom-10 matchup against the Cardinals.
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. LAR)
Travis Kelce is averaging 22.3 FPG, which is the most by any TE in any season in NFL history (+1.5 more than the record he set in 2020). That’s also +7.4 FPG or +50% more than the next-closest slate-eligible TE (Mark Andrews) and +10.1 FPG or 83% more than the second-closest slate-eligible TE (George Kittle). And, perhaps most importantly, 22.3 FPG would also lead all slate-eligible WRs, with +0.07 FPG more than Tyreek Hill.
And yet, Kelce is just $7,700 on DraftKings, priced as only the WR3 – $1,100 cheaper than Hill, $900 cheaper than Davante Adams, and tied with DeAndre Hopkins. He’s only 18% more expensive than Andrews and just 45% more expensive than Kittle.
Sure, Kelce is expensive. But he’s undoubtedly a clear top value, because he’s priced as just “the most expensive TE on the slate” but not “the overall WR1” or “the TE having the best fantasy season in NFL history”.
Obviously if Leonard Fournette and Joe Mixon are out, Rachaad White and Samaje Perine become borderline must-plays. The same thing can be said for Greg Dortch if he plays and Rondale Moore is out. We’ll have all of these names (and many more) covered and (ranked in order of importance) in the Week 12 DFS Breakdown.