Hello, and welcome to the Week 5 XFP Report. If you’re unfamiliar with XFP, I’ll get to that in a little bit.
But basically, every week we’re going to be telling you which players are seeing the best volume for fantasy, as measured by Expected Fantasy Points (XFP). We’ll be telling you who the best buy-low and sell-high candidates are, as measured by Points Above Replacement (PAR), or the differential between actual- and expected fantasy points. This is an especially effective approach in DFS, where players are typically priced by production rather than volume, though PAR will regress to the mean. And (at the end of the article) we’re going to be telling you who the best volume-per-dollar DFS plays are.
What is XFP?
You can access our full XFP database (which includes other advanced stats like air yards, deep targets, end zone targets) here.
Expected fantasy points (XFP) is flat-out the best and most comprehensive way of measuring a player’s volume. It’s telling you – based on a player’s unique usage – how many fantasy points that player should have scored. It’s telling you how many fantasy points a perfectly league-average RB, WR, or TE would have scored with that same exact volume. It looks at every individual carry by down and distance and distance from the end zone and every individual target by depth of target and distance from the end zone, and then cross-references each carry and target to each carry and target with those specific qualifiers over a multi-year sample to tell you what exactly those carries and targets are worth (historically).
Expected touchdowns (XTD), same thing. RBs score from the one-yard line on 54% of their attempts. RBs score from the 17-yard line only 3.6% of the time. So why ever use “red zone carries,” which treats both carries the same, as a fantasy stat? I have no idea.
Why doesn’t everyone point to XFP in their fantasy research? I have no idea. Once you have XFP and XTD you can contrast that with a player’s actual fantasy points or actual touchdown total to tell you how efficient a player has been (PAR). This is especially useful in highlighting regression candidates, buy-low targets, and mispriced players for DFS.
Through four weeks of action, here are the top-25 players in expected fantasy points (XFP) per game:
The Top 25
Click here to see the full list.
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
[FPG: 13.8, XFP: 16.2, Diff: -2.4]
Hall is looking like a priority trade target, a top positive regression candidate, and one of the top DFS values on the week.
Hall currently ranks 19th in FPG (13.8), but also 8th in XFP/G (16.2).
He ranks 2nd among all RBs in targets per game (7.0), behind only Austin Ekeler (7.5). And that’s also sort of underselling it. Hall is averaging 0.5 deep targets per game; the same amount as D.J. Moore and Drake London. And he’s averaging 31.3 air yards per game. That’s more than double the next-closest RB. And that would also be the most by any RB since at least 2007, on pace to break David Johnson’s record of 487 air yards in 2016 (30.4 air yards per game).
Hall only ranks 36th in snap share (48%) and 35th in RB carry share (49%), but he ranks 7th among all RBs in target share (13.4%). So, at the very least, it appears he’s cemented his role as the team’s preferred pass-catching back. This is important because, remember, targets are worth 2.5X as much as a carry for RBs in PPR leagues (and 3.0X outside of the red zone). And then there’s massive upside beyond that if he continues to steal more work as a runner – and it certainly does appear as though we’re headed in that direction.
Last week Hall earned 17 of 26 carries (65%) and 6 of 9 targets out of the backfield (67%). This was over double Hall’s prior high in carries, and the first time he’s out-carried Michael Carter this season. Hall’s snap share has now climbed in three straight weeks: 26% to 51% to 67% in Week 4.
In back-to-back games, Hall has finished top-5 among all RBs in XFP. Over this span, he’s handled 87% of the backfield XTD, 70% of the backfield XFP (11th-most), and 26.8% of the team XFP (6th-most).
In the near term, Hall is your No. 1 volume-related value at the RB position (3.0X), priced as just the RB29 on DraftKings ($5,400). He gets a neutral at-worst matchup this week, against a backup QB and a Miami defense that’s given up the 3rd-most receiving FPG to opposing RBs (13.3).
In the longer term, Hall really could be a league-winner if this usage trend continues. Here’s what I had to say about Hall earlier in the offseason:
The Jets are expected to take a RBBC approach in 2021, with Hall serving as the team’s “lead back”, or as “the Batman to Carter’s Robin.” After taking Hall in Round 2 – but trying to trade up for him in Round 1 – I think that this (lead back in a committee) should be our minimum expectation for his role; realistically we should expect something around 60% of the team’s backfield XFP by season-end statistics. But maybe that’s averaged down from 40% through the first four weeks, and then 80% through the final four weeks of the season (the fantasy playoffs). In which case, Hall appears immensely more valuable in Underdog’s tournament-style leagues. Remember, rookie RBs are typically far more productive in the second half of their rookie seasons, and in Underdog tournaments, the second half of the season matters exponentially more than the first.
Other Usage Change RBs
Measured by backfield XFP%, here are a few more RBs who saw a notable role change in recent weeks:
Devin Singletary— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) October 5, 2022
+ 56% of snaps
+ 14 of 35 carries (40%)
+ 4 of 11 targets (36%)
+80% of snaps
+20 of 28 carries (71%)
+ 16 of 23 targets (70%)
I don’t think gamescript played a tremendous role here. In Weeks 1-2 (both blowout victories), Singletary played on 61% of the snaps in the first half and 51% of the snaps in second half.
I have two working theories on Singletary: 1) Singletary is simply now Buffalo’s bell cow RB. And this will last an indeterminate number of weeks (perhaps dependent upon James Cook finally living up to his draft capital, if he ever does). 2) Singletary is Buffalo’s bell cow in “big games” or at least more-competitive games, but will be preserved in more minor matchups (or less competitive gamescripts).
Week 5 will be the ultimate litmus test for these theories, as Buffalo faces Pittsburgh at home favored by 14.0-points. But either way, this is undoubtedly good news for those of you who drafted him this summer at his lowly RB36 price tag. And if Singletary is indeed back to being Buffalo’s bell cow, there’s some serious upside here. Over Buffalo’s final 7 games last season (including the playoffs), Devin Singletary played on 84% of the team’s snaps, averaging 19.7 FPG. For perspective, those numbers would have ranked best and 4th-best (respectively) if over the full season.
Over the last two weeks, Jeff Wilson has played on 69% of San Francisco’s snaps (11th-most), while handling 85% of the team’s backfield XFP (5th-most). He’s earned 32 of 33 carries and 4 of 4 targets out of the backfield over this span. Moving forward, I think he should be viewed almost identically to 2021 Elijah Mitchell. And he remains a phenomenal GPP-play every week in DFS, even though (or especially because) he rarely ever draws significant ownership.
Wilson has seen at least 12 carries only 15 times in his career, but he averages 15.6 FPG in those games – that’s more than what Nick Chubb and Aaron Jones gave you last year. In the top-50% of those games he averages 22.7 FPG – that’s more than what Jonathan Taylor gave you last year.
Last week, Miles Sanders played on a season-high 67% of the team’s snaps, handling a bell cow-like 27 of 34 carries (77%) and 3 of 5 targets (60%) out of the backfield. After the game, HC Nick Sirianni confirmed, "Miles Sanders is our No. 1 back! There ain’t no question about it!”
That may be true, but I think it’s notable that Boston Scott missed this game (20% snap-share Weeks 1-2). And, of course, Sanders will continue to have his upside capped by Jalen Hurts near the end zone. And then, I also still expect Sanders to remain a bit gamescript-dependent moving forward, as he ranks just 36th among RBs in target share (7.3%). But, then again, this also looks like a team that could lead the league in positive gamescript.
Anyway… Add it all up, and it’s looking to me like Sanders (who, by the way, ranks 12th all-time in career YPC average) should be viewed as a mid-range RB2 just about every week moving forward.
I think Derrick Henry is just who we think he is. Which is to say, he’s glaringly the most gamescript-dependent RB in fantasy.
Derrick Henry— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) October 4, 2022
in wins: 16.9 FPG
in losses: 7.0 FPG
in wins: 23.8 FPG
in losses: 13.4 FPG
in wins: 23.8 FPG
in losses: 12.0 FPG
in wins: 27.4 FPG
in losses: 18.2 FPG
in wins: 24.5 FPG
in losses: 8.4 FPG
And, with that in mind, it is very concerning that this is probably the worst Tennessee team he’s ever played on.
But at the same time, I think that this could be partially or wholly offset by the fact that he’s now seeing the best usage of his career. Or, at least, that’s how it’s been the last two weeks.
Henry has hit 20 carries and 85 rushing yards in back-to-back games, but he’s also seen at least 5 targets in back-to-back games. For perspective, Henry has seen at least 5 targets only three other times in his 90-game career. He hit career-bests in targets per game (2.5, 42nd-most) and target share (7.5%, 42nd-most) last year. But, now… And, remarkably, Henry ranks behind only Christian McCaffrey in target share over the last two weeks (20.8%).
Among all RBs, Pierce ranks 9th in RB carry share (77%) but 38th in target share (7.0%). In other words, Pierce looks like an archetypal workhorse RB (but a non-bell cow).
But then again…
Pierce has finished top-12 among all RBs in XFP in back-to-back games. And over the last three weeks, Dameon Pierce ranks 10th in carries (50), 18th in targets (10), 8th in team XFP% (22.0%), 10th in backfield XFP (66%), 10th in XTD (0.73 XTD/G), 10th in XFP (15.9 XFP/G), 9th in fantasy points scored (17.6 FPG). So, just about by every stat, Pierce is looking like a low-end RB1. And that’s despite exclusively negative gamescript over this span (three straight losses), which should be especially detrimental for a player of the workhorse RB archetype.
And encouragingly, his role appears to be growing better. His route participation jumped to 49% last week (19th-most, and ahead of Rex Burkhead), up from 25% across the first three weeks of the season. And he earned 6 targets (up from a high of 2, set the week prior). If that usage sticks (or improves), Pierce could become a bell cow, and a consistent fringe-RB1 for fantasy.
I don’t think Fournette is who he was at the end of last season; an almost Christian McCaffrey-esque bell cow.
PLEASE IGNORE— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) August 2, 2022
(background for an article I'm working on, chart wouldn't fit so have to tweet it out) pic.twitter.com/ZLZe3BSJDl
Last week Rachaad White played on 38% of the team’s snaps, up from just 9% in Week 3. Last week, Fournette ran only 25 routes to Rachaad White’s 17. Prior to that, Fournette bested White 79 to 18. White and Fournette were both given exactly 3 carries in Week 4, and Fournette only barely out-targeted White (7 to 5). Most alarmingly, White received both of the team’s 2 carries inside the 10-yard-line.
I’m going to be intentionally careful not to overreact to a one-game sample size, but I think this is a slight problem. But only a slight problem. I don’t think White and Fournette will continue to split the touches 55/45. But I do think White has at least cemented himself in the passing game. And so, I’m imagining something like 80% of the carries for Fournette moving forward, but only 50-60% of the targets out of the backfield.
I don’t think Fournette is who he was at the end of last season, but I still think he needs to be viewed as an every-week low-end RB1 for fantasy. And in light of this concern, compounded by Tampa Bay’s beleaguered offensive line and Tom Brady’s every-lasting eager willingness to abandon the run, Fournette will at the very least be a little bit more gamescript-dependent than we’ve grown accustomed, especially struggling in games Tampa Bay is likely to trail.
So, uhhh… All reports out of camp appear to be wrong. And Jacobs is looking like he could be a bell cow.
Through four weeks, Jacobs ranks 6th in snap share (74%) and 7th in backfield XFP% (73%). He also ranks 11th in XFP/G (15.7) and 8th in FPG (16.7).
And what’s most impressive by his usage stats is that he’s being disadvantaged by negative gamescript – the Raiders are 1-3 and have spent the 13th-most time trailing of any offense (50%). And then in addition to that, Jacobs’ role continues to improve every week.
Jacobs has dominated the early-down work since the start of the season, but that too has steadily grown – 77% of the team’s carries out of the backfield in Week 1, then 87%, then 81%, and then 93% in Week 4. But, more meaningfully, he’s seen a steady increase in percentage of targets out of the backfield – 25% in Week 1, then 33%, then 71%, and then 86% in Week 4. And by route share too – 40% in Week 1, then 41%, then 56%, and then 62% in Week 4 (6th-most on the week).
All of this culminated in a monster workload in Week 4. On 89% of the team’s snaps (2nd-most on the week), Jacobs earned 28 carries, 6 targets, and 5 opportunities inside the 10-yard-line, resulting in 26.6 XFP (most among RBs) and 34.5 fantasy points scored.
This could be mostly or at least partially due to gamescript, but I’m bullish it’s not. Still, Week 5 will be an ideal litmus test, as the Raiders travel to Kansas City as 7.0-point underdogs.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
[FPG: 26.8, XFP: 23.5, Diff: +3.3]
Cooper Kupp laughs at your regression to the mean.
Last year, Kupp led all players in XFP, averaging 21.0. He scored 439.5 fantasy points, the most by any WR all time (average: 25.9).
This year, Kupp leads all players in XFP, averaging 23.5. He averages 26.8 FPG, which would be the most by any WR all time.
Since the start of Week 1 last year – and minus games against Arizona (where he was shadowed by Byron Murphy) – Kupp has exceeded 90 yards and 16.0 fantasy points in 18 of 18 games, averaging 27.0 FPG over this span. He hit a career-high in receptions (14) just last week.
What a freak.
Marquise Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals
[FPG: 18.7, XFP: 20.3, Diff: -1.7]
Brown has seen at least 11 targets and has finished top-12 among WRs in XFP in each of the last three weeks. Over this span and on a per-game basis, Brown has averaged: 22.8 XFP/G (most), 143.7 air yards (3rd-most), 13.0 targets (most), 98.7 YPG (3rd-most), and 20.5 FPG (5th-most).
And what’s most impressive about all of this, is Brown has had one of the most difficult CB schedules of any WR over this stretch, running 42% of his routes against Nate Hobbs, Jalen Ramsey, and Jaycee Horn. For clarity, all three CBs currently rank top-7 in PFF grade.
Unfortunately for Brown, he has a brutal matchup again this week, against Philadelphia’s league-best CB trio. This matchup would look at least a little bit softer if Darius Slay (forearm) and slot CB Avonte Maddox (ankle) sit out. Still, Hollywood owners should be very excited and bullish long-term, and also drooling over his Week 6 matchup against Seattle.
Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
[FPG: 14.3, XFP: 23.2, Diff: -9.0]
I know this sounds crazy right now – because he ranks just 16th in FPG (14.3) – but there’s a really good chance Joe Mixon finishes the season as a top-3(!) RB by FPG.
Or, at the very least, Mixon is currently the league’s No. 1 positive regression candidate (or No. 1 buy-low candidate), and there isn’t really a close 2nd.
Among all RBs, Mixon has finished 1st (29.6), 6th (17.1), 3rd (21.9), and 2nd (24.4) in XFP over the first four weeks of the season. Among all RBs, and on a per-game basis, he currently ranks 1st in XFP (23.2), with a whopping +5.0 (or +27%) more than the next-closest RB (Saquon Barkley). That’s the same as the gap between Saquon Barkley and J.K. Dobbins (RB23 by XFP/G).
And the remainder of his usage stats are all equally exquisite – even better than it was last year when he finished as the overall RB4, averaging 18.1 FPG.
He ranks 2nd in carries per game (20.8), 5th in targets per game (5.5), 5th in snap% (75%), 3rd in RB rush attempt% (87%), and 6th in target share (14%). All of those numbers are up from a season ago: 18.3, 3.0, 67%, 80%, and 9%.
On a per-game basis, he also leads all RBs in XTD (1.2), as well as opportunities inside the 5- (2.5), 10- (3.8), and 20-yard-lines (4.5). And yet, he’s scored just one touchdown this year. And this is having a massively negative impact to Mixon’s bottom line, equating to a 5.4 loss off his FPG average. If he were perfectly average in touchdown efficiency, he’d rank 3rd among all RBs in FPG (19.7), instead of 16th (14.3). This – I promise you – will regress to the mean.
Obviously, the lack of efficiency is at least a little concerning. (Most often, a player regresses to the mean. Sometimes a player is simply bad, and the team starts to take more work off of their plate.) But I think we know who Mixon is at this point, and to expect him to regress to the mean, or possibly his mean which is a little bit better than +0.0 – he out-scored his XFP by 1.5 FPG last season; this year he’s falling 9.0 FPG short of it. And I think we know what sort of potential this offense has once it starts firing on all cylinders. An offense, which at least on paper, has a massively improved offensive line (we know it can take an offensive line several weeks into the season to sufficiently “gel”). And so, if I’m a Mixon-owner I’m happy to remain patient. And if I’m not, I’d be looking to see if I can buy-low.
Right now, I’m only seeing two oligarch TEs (Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews). And I don’t see a close 3rd.
Yes, T.J. Hockenson isn’t too far behind (technically). But Detroit was also down their WR1, WR3, and RB1 in Week 4, when he brought his FPG average up from 8.1 to 16.0. Also, Hockenson was averaging just 27.3 YPG up until Week 4. But, that being said, I’m open to being wrong, and Detroit does look like an offense you want to invest in.
The Lions currently rank 1st in points scored and 32nd in points allowed.— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) October 4, 2022
Last 3 teams to rank top-3/bottom-3 by these stats:
Those 3 teams combined to provide:
- 3 QB1s (2 in top-3)
- 3 RB1s
- 5 WR1s (3 in top-8)
- 2 TE1s (1 overall TE1)
Tyler Higbee probably doesn’t have the talent to come close to Kelce and Andrews, but his volume has been outstanding, and good enough to rank him as a mid-range TE1 almost every week. Among all TEs, he ranks 2nd in target share (24.0%), 5th in route share (86%), and 3rd in targets per game (8.3) – he’s just 0.5 targets per game off Andrews, and he’s seen at least 9 targets in 3 of 4 games thus far.
I think we need to view Zach Ertz similarly to Higbee, except his volume is a little bit better (if we exclude Week 1 due to injury) and he’s probably slightly more talented (although well behind the two Oligarchs at this stage of his career). Here’s what I had to say in this article last week: “If excluding Week 1, Ertz has now seen double-digit targets in 7 of his last 9 healthy games. Over this span, Ertz averages 9.6 targets (~WR10), 17.0 XFP/G (~WR9), 0.74 XTD/G (~WR1), and 13.3 FPG (~TE5).”
I don’t think we’ll see Darren Waller reclaim his Oligarch-status this season, but he might still have the best odds of any TE. His volume has been solid, ranking 4th in XFP/G (14.3, just 15% off of Andrews). He’s due for a positive touchdown regression, ranking 1st at the position in XTD/G (0.9) and 1st in end zone targets per game (1.3). His worst game of the year came in Week 3, when he faced Tennessee’s bracket coverage. And we know he’s pretty talented – in 2020 (before an injury-plagued 2021) he would have finished 6th among all WRs in fantasy points scored, and he became one of just three total TEs to ever record 1,100-plus yards in back-to-back seasons. He’s not necessarily a trade target for me (his 15.5% target share is a concern), but if I owned him I’d remain hopeful.
It’s really not looking good for Kyle Pitts. Yes, his underlying usage looks positive – ranking 5th in target share (22.2%) and 14th in route share (75%). But Arthur Smith is running this offense like Marcus Mariota is Kendall Hinton. By pass rate over expectation, the Falcons rank ahead of only the Bears (-7.7%). And they’re also the 12th-slowest offense in football (27.3 seconds per snap). Last week Tyler Higbee had as many receptions (10) as Pitts has had all season (10), and Pitts ran almost 1/4th as many routes as Higbee (47 to 12).
I think Cameron Brate is being a little underrated by the fantasy community. Over his last six quarters of work, he’s seen 14 targets, earning an 83% route share (would rank 6th-best) and a 21% target share (would rank 6th-best). Once he returns to full health I could see myself viewing him as a sort of poor man’s Tyler Higbee.
I’d still hold out some small hope for Logan Thomas, even though he only barely out-targeted John Bates last week (6 to 5). His route participation continues to grow each week: 57% in Week 2, 65% in Week 3, and 73% in Week 4. So, hopefully, he can reclaim some of his former glory as he nears full health.
Albert Okwuegbunam should be dropped in all formats. He was out-snapped by Eric Saubert 41 (77%) to 1 (2%) in Week 4. Greg Dulcich is worth a stash if you’re TE-needy. He could also be in play in DFS this week, priced at just $2,500.
#Broncos have not activated Greg Dulcich yet. Per Hackett there is a chance that happens this week. There is a buzz around that they want Dulcich to be the guy and he could play in Week 5. @1043TheFan cc: @SigmundBloom— Cecil Lammey (@CecilLammey) October 4, 2022
Christian McCaffrey currently ranks 6th among all RBs in XFP/G (16.5). And he ranks 2nd in XFP per team play (0.30). Which is to say, if Carolina were running as many plays per game as Arizona (78.5), instead of their pitiful 53.5 – the lowest number by any NFL team in at least 20 years – then… McCaffrey would be averaging a league-high 23.6 XFP/G.
Alvin Kamara owners need to remain patient, and if you’re not a Kamara owner I’d consider buying low. I’m still very bullish on him; he just needs to get healthy. I explained my reasoning in more detail last week here.
Rashod Bateman is not the WR1 you drafted him to be. In Week 4, WRs Devin Duvernay (68%) and Demarcus Robinson (58%) both ran more routes than he did (53%)… Bateman currently has a route share of just 69%, ranking 75th among WRs, just directly ahead of David Sills (69%), Hunter Henry (68%), Richie James (68%)… It’s hard for any WR to be fantasy-relevant playing on only two-thirds of your team’s passing snaps, and especially when that team is so run-centric. And then, of course, when nearly one-third of all targets go to the Oligarch TE.
Don’t pay too much attention to Travis Etienne’s uptick in usage. Right now he’s just a gamescript-dependent scatback. This season, he’s played on 68% of the team’s snaps when trailing by 6 or more points. The rest of the time that falls to just 39%… I think James Robinson hasn’t played nearly as well as his numbers imply – minus one run, he’s averaging just 3.6 YPC. And Robinson leads all RBs in percentage of carries to gain fewer than 3 yards (57.6%). Etienne could get a massive uptick in usage at some point in the near future, but I don’t think we’re there yet.
Including the postseason, Tee Higgins averages 18.9 FPG over the last 13 games he’s played on at least 30% of the team’s snaps. Or, 19.6 FPG over his last 6, hitting at least 16.0 fantasy points in 5 of those games… You can compare this to Jamarr Chase: 18.6 FPG over his last 13 games. Or 16.1 FPG over his last 6… I expect Higgins to out-score Chase most weeks this season, but also for Chase to finish the season ahead of Higgins by FPG.
Despite losing Tua Tagovailoa for 61% of the game, Tyreek Hill still led all players in XFP (32.8) and team XFP% (39.1%) in Week 4. He scored 25.9 fantasy points on 248 air yards (71 more than the next-closest player) and 16 targets… In just two full quarters plus one full drive, Teddy Bridgewater targeted Hill 9 times, completing 6 for 109 yards. Hill comprised 36% of Bridgewater’s passes and 56% of his total passing yards… Bridgewater mostly targeted Hill in the shortest area of the field (8 of 9 targets within 0-10 yards of the line of scrimmage), but he also did throw Hill a 60-yard bomb, which Hill caught, marking the single longest completion (by air yardage) of his career.
Tyreek Hill's All-Time Longest Completions— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) October 5, 2022
1 Bridgewater, 60 air yards (W4, 2022)
2 Mahomes, 53 air yards (W12, 2020)
3 Mahomes, 51 air yards (W2, 2020)
4 Mahomes, 49 air yards (W11, 2018)
5 Tagovailoa, 46 air yards (W2, 2022)
(nothing else in career over 45 air yards)
For the first time in seemingly forever, a WR not named Diontae Johnson led the Steelers in XFP. George Pickens earned a team-high 10 targets and a whopping 177 air yards (2nd-most of the week), scoring 16.2 fantasy points on 14.8 XFP… Johnson, meanwhile, caught just 2 of 4 targets for only 11 yards. Prior to this game, Johnson had hit double-digit targets in 24 of his last 30 games (80%) he earned a snap share of at least 50%… Kenny Pickett took over for Mitchell Trubisky in the second-half, targeting Pickens on a team-high 4 of his 13 pass attempts (31%). Pickens caught all 4 of those targets, gaining 71 yards.
Alec Pierce is only a part-time player in this Colts offense, running a route on only 47% of the team’s dropbacks in Week 3, and only 41% in Week 4. In other words, he’s basically only played in four quarters over the team’s last eight quarters of football. But over this span he totals: 11 targets, 7 catches, and 141 yards. Hopefully this points to his upside should the team finally decide to (rightfully) give up on Parris Campbell.
Top Regression Candidates
Bell Cow Tight Ends
Fantasy Points Negated by Penalty
1. A.J. Brown, WR (9.4)
2. Elijah Moore, WR (8.2)
3. K.J. Osborn, WR (7.5)
4. Tyler Boyd, WR (7.4)
5. Jalen Hurts, QB (7.2)
6. Christian McCaffrey, RB (6.6)
7. D.K. Metcalf, WR (5.9)
8. Joe Flacco, QB (5.1)
8. Derrick Henry, RB (5.1)
10. Noah Fant, TE (5.0)
Backfield XFP% (The Bell Cow Stat)
1. Christian McCaffrey, RB (94.0%)
2. Saquon Barkley, RB (92.9%)
3. Alvin Kamara, RB (80.4%)
4. Joe Mixon, RB (79.8%)
5. Najee Harris, RB (78.7%)
6. Leonard Fournette, RB (74.5%)
7. Josh Jacobs, RB (74.2%)
8. Derrick Henry, RB (72.8%)
9. Jonathan Taylor, RB (65.4%)
10. Jeff Wilson Jr., RB (63.3%)
RB Team XFP%
1. Saquon Barkley, RB (31.0%)
1. Christian McCaffrey, RB (31.0%)
3. Derrick Henry, RB (28.2%)
4. Joe Mixon, RB (26.5%)
5. Khalil Herbert, RB (23.9%)
6. Javonte Williams, RB (22.3%)
7. Jonathan Taylor, RB (22.1%)
8. Nick Chubb, RB (21.1%)
9. David Montgomery, RB (20.7%)
10. Austin Ekeler, RB (20.5%)
WR / TE Team XFP%
1. Cooper Kupp, WR (31.4%)
2. Tyreek Hill, WR (27.4%)
3. Justin Jefferson, WR (27.2%)
4. CeeDee Lamb, WR (26.1%)
5. Davante Adams, WR (25.2%)
6. D.K. Metcalf, WR (24.6%)
7. Courtland Sutton, WR (24.0%)
8. Jakobi Meyers, WR (23.8%)
9. Mark Andrews, TE (23.6%)
10. Stefon Diggs, WR (23.5%)
XFP per Team Play
1. Cooper Kupp, WR (0.37)
2. Tyreek Hill, WR (0.35)
3. Justin Jefferson, WR (0.32)
4. Davante Adams, WR (0.32)
5. Joe Mixon, RB (0.31)
6. Christian McCaffrey, RB (0.30)
7. CeeDee Lamb, WR (0.28)
8. Derrick Henry, RB (0.28)
9. Courtland Sutton, WR (0.27)
10. D.K. Metcalf, WR (0.27)
DFS Values (DK)
1. Tyler Higbee, TE (3.5X)
2. Zay Jones, WR (3.5X)
3. Jakobi Meyers, WR (3.3X)
4. Garrett Wilson, WR (3.2X)
5. Breece Hall, RB (3.0X)
6. Cameron Brate, TE (3.0X)
7. Curtis Samuel, WR (2.9X)
8. Pat Freiermuth, TE (2.9X)
9. Zach Ertz, TE (2.9X)
10. Chris Olave, WR (2.8X)