Fantasy Points Data: Week 14 Chart Porn

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Fantasy Points Data: Week 14 Chart Porn

Charting NFL football and trying to quantify a game that is in many ways unquantifiable is one of the edges that fantasy football players are still trying to grasp.

It’s also not a unique endeavor. Other companies do it. NFL teams do it.

But with Fantasy Points Data — a project that we’ve had in the works for the better part of a year — we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. And we have tools in development that we think fantasy players will go absolutely crazy for. We believe, in all humility, we’re going to do this better than anyone else, and it will unequivocally blow your mind.

We’re excited to show you those tools when they’re tested, re-tested, and tested again, but what we can tell you is that the tools will be efficient, clean, and simplistic. You won’t need to be a data scientist to decipher them. And getting those tools to a place where an Average Joe (Dolan) can look at them and say “this makes sense” has been our main goal. Best of all, these tools will be available free of charge for the remainder of the 2022 season.

This is not the finished product, but we wanted to give you a sneak peek of what we’ve been working on behind the scenes for months. These charts, stats, and tools will all eventually be native to Fantasy Points with a user-friendly interface. We’re sure you’ll love them.

Schedule-Adjusted FPG Allowed (Team Weaknesses)

Quick Analysis

  • Kirk Cousins will face a Detroit defense that ranks as the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+5.7 FPG). Slot WR Adam Thielen (+3.1 FPG) and TE TJ Hockenson (+4.3 FPG) also draw top-3 matchups. Lots of ways to approach Cousins-stacks this week.

  • Trevor Lawrence draws the best schedule-adjusted passing matchup (+3.5), while outside WRs Marvin Jones and Zay Jones easily draw the top schedule-adjusted matchup at their position (+7.4 FPG)

  • Austin Ekeler draws the top schedule-adjusted matchup for receiving RBs (+4.4 FPG), which is a scary thought considering he’s on pace to set the RB record for both targets (147) and receptions (120).

  • The Vikings are the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs. This makes me very interested in D.J. Chark for GPPs. Minnesota also ranks 2nd-worst in deep passing YPG allowed (63.8). Last week Chark faced a Jacksonville defense ranking bottom-5 by the same stat, and gained a season-high 98 yards. So, everything lines up well for Chark, given his $4,300 DraftKings price tag and team-leaving 18.6 aDOT. The only concern is if Jameson Williams is a lot more highly involved than he was last week (8 snaps).

  • Las Vegas is the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs (+4.9 FPG), setting up strong matchups for both Brandon Powell and Tutu Atwell – who are splitting slot work in Cooper Kupp’s absence.

Schedule-Adjusted FPG Allowed (Basic)

WR Schedule-Adjusted FPG Allowed

Quick Analysis

  • The Bills’ defense has been cited for years as a matchup to avoid, but that hasn’t been the case this season. Buffalo is the 6th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs, setting up both Garrett Wilson and Corey Davis with favorable matchups.

  • Cleveland ranks as the 4th-softest matchup for opposing outside WRs (+3.5 FPG), but the single-toughest matchup for opposing slot WRs (-4.8 FPG). This should funnel volume away from Tyler Boyd and towards Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

  • The Texans are the single-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (-6.0 FPG), which should push Dallas toward a more RB-centric offensive approach.

  • The Rams are the 3rd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (+5.4), setting up Davante Adams with a nearly perfect matchup in prime time.

FPG Allowed to WR1s / WR2s

Quick Analysis

  • Courtland Sutton looks unlikely to play this week, leaving Jerry Jeudy with the top matchup for opposing WR1s (21.8 DraftKings FPG). Still, it’s impossible to have faith in any WR on a Broncos offense that ranks 2nd-worst of the last decade by PPG (13.8).

  • That said, I’m certainly excited to play Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, and Justin Jefferson in top-5 matchups for WR1s.

  • It’s difficult to love either Keenan Allen or Amari Cooper in bottom-5 matchups for opposing WR1s. Perhaps the more favorable plays are Mike Williams and Donovan Peoples-Jones.

  • Maybe this is the week George Pickens breaks out? He draws the best matchup for WR2s, against a Baltimore secondary allowing 14.0 DraftKings FPG. Or will he be the WR1 this week? Because Diontae Johnson may not play.

  • It makes sense to avoid Cowboys WRs in a bottom-12 matchup for CeeDee Lamb (14.1 FPG allowed to WR1s) and the worst possible matchup for Michael Gallup (6.2 FPG allowed to WR2s).

Deep Passing YPG Allowed

Quick Analysis

  • Need another reason to avoid Cowboys’ pass catchers? Houston doesn’t give up many bigs plays, allowing the 2nd-fewest deep YPG (24.4) and the 3rd-fewest deep FPG (3.4).

  • All three of Christian Kirk (1.5), Zay Jones (1.0), and Marvin Jones (1.5) average at least one deep target per game since Week 9. And all three are viable DFS plays this week, granted Christian Kirk and Zay Jones are preferable, given they’ve dominated usage as of late.

  • Tyreek Hill leads the NFL in deep targets per game (2.9), and draws an awesome matchup against a Chargers defense that’s allowed the 4th-most deep YPG (59.3) and 4th-most deep FPG (8.3) this season.

QB FPG Allowed

Quick Analysis

  • The Raiders are one of the most efficient defenses to throw against, allowing the highest passer rating (104.4), and the 3rd-most passing fantasy points per pass attempt (0.487). Maybe, just maybe, we are underrating the Rams passing attack for the Thursday showdown slate?

  • No team allows more passing FPG (18.4) than the Tennessee Titans. Trevor Lawrence flopped last week in a solid matchup, but I’m willing to play him again this week in an even better spot at a severely reduced ownership.

  • I’m certainly not anxious to play Daniel Jones against an Eagles defense that’s allowed both the fewest FPG (12.9) to opposing QBs and the lowest passer rating (72.6). The definition of brutal matchup.

RB FPG Allowed

Quick Analysis

  • D’Onta Foreman is back at practice, and assuming he suits up, he’s a stellar play against a Seattle run defense that’s allowed the 9th-most YPC and the most overall FPG (29.0) against opposing RBs.

  • We’ve already discussed Houston being a brutal matchup for Cowboys’ WRs, but they are the most vulnerable run defense in the NFL, allowing a league-leading 21.4 rushing FPG and 5.1 YPC (4th-most). Both Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott are outstanding plays.

  • D’Andre Swift saw his best usage of the season in Week 13. Now he gets to face off with a Vikings defense that’s allowing 11.9 receiving FPG to opposing RBs (6th-most)

  • Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson both flopped last week, but they should be able to get back on track against a Chargers run defense that’s allowed the most YPC (5.6) and the 2nd-most rushing FPG (19.0).

  • Rachaad White and Leonard Fournette should be expected to struggle this week against a 49ers defense that’s allowed the lowest YPC (3.2) and fewest FPG (16.2) to opposing RBs this season.

  • The same can be said for James Conner, who is facing a New England run defense that’s allowed the 2nd-fewest FPG (16.8) and just 3 total TDs to opposing RBs this season.

TE Funnel Defenses (% of Total Receiving Fantasy Points Allowed to TEs)

Quick Analysis

  • The Cardinals are the premier TE funnel, allowing a league-leading 29.9% of total receiving fantasy production to opposing TEs. Teams recognize this, leading to Arizona allowing the most FPG (18.8) to opposing TEs. But, I’m not sure that’s very actionable in Week 14, with Arizona facing off against Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith.

  • Miami ranks as the 2nd-best matchup for opposing TEs by both FPG allowed (15.2) and FPG allowed excluding TDs (11.7). I’m excited to fire up Gerald Everett, who set a season-high in receiving yards (80) last week.

  • I wouldn’t expect much from Cade Otton or Cameron Brate (if he plays), with San Francisco ranking as the toughest matchup for TEs by FPG allowed (8.1).

Fantasy Points Over Expectation (XFP)

Quick Analysis

  • TJ Hockenson draws a strong matchup against a Detroit defense that’s allowed 128% more fantasy points than expected (2nd-most) against opposing TEs.

  • If there is a weakness in the San Francisco defense, it’s the slot, with the 49ers allowing 131% more fantasy points than expected to opposing slot WRs (3rd-most). Chris Godwin easily had the most favorable matchup among the Buccaneers offense.

  • Minnesota allowing just 83% of expected fantasy points to opposing slot WRs spells trouble for Amon-Ra St. Brown, granted he’s such a glaring value that even a tough matchup won’t deter me from playing him. But, I do think that lends credence to playing DJ Chark and potentially Josh Reynolds or Jameson Williams, given they all draw top-3 matchups by fantasy points allowed over expectation.

  • Darius Slayton and Isaiah Hodgins both draw incredibly tough matchups against an Eagles defense that’s allowed just 73% of expected fantasy points to opposing outside WRs. If Richie James can get healthy, he’s the more appealing play.

OL vs. DL (Rushing / Passing)

Quick Analysis

  • Based on team yards before contact per attempt vs. opponent yards before contact per attempt allowed, Joe Mixon has the top rushing matchup of the week.

  • Miami, Philadelphia, and Dallas also draw drool-inducing rushing matchups.

  • On the opposite end, Austin Ekeler, Zonovan Knight, and the Buccaneers’ backfield draw the worst rushing matchups of the week.

  • Based on the average pressure rate over expectation between Baltimore and Pittsburgh, Tyler Huntley draws the top passing matchup of the week from a pressure perspective. Sam Darnold has a similarly favorable matchup, but he doesn’t carry the same juice for fantasy as Huntley.

  • The bottom of that chart illustrates that Davis Mills and Daniel Jones have brutal matchups, as they project to face the most pressure this week.

Pass Rate Over Expectation

Quick Analysis

  • The Bills have dialed back their aggressiveness as of late, with three of their four lowest PROEs of the season coming in the last three weeks. Perhaps due to Josh Allen’s recent slump, Buffalo’s RBs have seen a +52% increase in rushing attempts per game over the last three weeks.

  • Detroit’s receiving corps is finally getting healthy. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them lean more pass-heavy in the final weeks of the season given their season-high 11.2% PROE in Week 13.

  • Seattle is a pass-first team, posting a +10.7% PROE over the last six weeks – a mark that would rank 3rd-best over the full season. With Geno Smith playing at an MVP-caliber level, why not?

  • Expect New England and Jacksonville to lean into the pass this week, given their matchups with the top-2 defenses by pass rate over expectation allowed.

  • On the opposite end, both Houston and Carolina should lean run heavy, as Dallas and Seattle have been some of the premier run funnel defenses this season.

Graham Barfield’s Pace of Play Model

Quick Analysis

  • It’s surprising to see Denver vs. Kansas City rank as the top pace of play matchup this week. We’ve noted the KC defense is an overall strong matchup for Denver, so I think I can get behind Russell Wilson in super large-field GPPs, granted it obviously carries massive risk.

  • Tennessee and Jacksonville both present compelling matchups for the opposing offense, but given the projected pace of play, I’d be very hesitant to stack this game.

  • I’m not sure many DFS players will be anxious to game-stack Buffalo and New York, but I can consider it viable given how close it is to being the top pace of play matchup of the week.

Dank Stats

Jake Tribbey is a recent college graduate and lifelong football fan obsessed with extracting every edge possible from NFL DFS, Best Ball, and player props/futures.