Fantasy Points Data: Week 13 Chart Porn

Charting NFL football and trying to quantify a game that is in many ways unquantifiable is one of the edges that fantasy football players are still trying to grasp.

It’s also not a unique endeavor. Other companies do it. NFL teams do it.

But with Fantasy Points Data — a project that we’ve had in the works for the better part of a year — we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. And we have tools in development that we think fantasy players will go absolutely crazy for. We believe, in all humility, we’re going to do this better than anyone else, and it will unequivocally blow your mind.

We’re excited to show you those tools when they’re tested, re-tested, and tested again, but what we can tell you is that the tools will be efficient, clean, and simplistic. You won’t need to be a data scientist to decipher them. And getting those tools to a place where an Average Joe (Dolan) can look at them and say “this makes sense” has been our main goal. Best of all, these tools will be available free of charge for the remainder of the 2022 season.

This is not the finished product, but we wanted to give you a sneak peek of what we’ve been working on behind the scenes for months. These charts, stats, and tools will all eventually be native to Fantasy Points with a user-friendly interface. We’re sure you’ll love them.

Schedule-Adjusted FPG Allowed (Team Weaknesses)

Quick Analysis

• Justin Herbert draws a truly incredible matchup against a Raiders pass defense that’s allowed the most schedule-adjusted passing FPG (+3.3) and 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+5.4) to opposing QBs. Coincidentally, they are also the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs (+5.1 FPG) and opposing receiving RBs (+4.0 FPG). So it’s not only an amazing matchup for Herbert, it’s the best possible receiving matchup for both Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler.

• Trevor Lawrence will face a Detroit defense that ranks as the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup (+6.4 FPG). Chrisitan Kirk has the 3rd-best schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs (+2.9 FPG), and Evan Engram draws the 3rd-best schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing TEs (+4.0 FPG).

• Nick Chubb draws the 3rd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs (+3.8), while Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland WRs draw bottom-5 matchups by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed. That should funnel more volume Chubb’s way.

• Garrett Wilson has the softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (+7.0 FPG). Quite literally the perfect matchup for the young star WR. Tyler Conkin (+2.1 schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing TEs) also draws a top-6 matchup against this Minnesota defense.

Schedule-Adjusted FPG Allowed (Basic)

WR Schedule-Adjusted FPG Allowed

Quick Analysis

• Chicago ranks as a bottom-4 schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (-3.9 FPG), but a top-10 schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs (+1.4 FPG). This should funnel volume to Randall Cobb and away from Allen Lazard and Christian Watson.

• Darius Slayton draws a top-5 matchup for opposing outside WRs by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (+2.9 FPG).

• DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett face off against a Los Angeles defense that’s been the 3rd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (+4.0 FPG).

• Devonta Smith and AJ Brown draw a similarly favorable matchup, with the Titans ranking as the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted for opposing outside WRs (+5.9 FPG).

• The Colts rank as the 3rd-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs (-4.3 FPG), but that’s because Kenny Moore (who is out this week) is a stud. So, I would consider this a plus matchup for CeeDee Lamb (who runs 58% of his routes from the slot).

• No team is tougher against opposing outside WRs than the Eagles by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (-5.7 FPG). It will be an uphill battle for both Treylon Burks and Robert Woods.

FPG Allowed to WR1s / WR2s

Quick Analysis

• No team has allowed more DraftKings FPG to opposing WR1s than Kansas City (22.2 FPG), setting up the perfect spot for a return from Ja’Marr Chase.

• Drake London draws the 2nd-best matchup for WR1s, against a Pittsburgh team allowing 20.7 DraftKings FPG to the position.

• Michael Pittman draws the single-toughest matchup for opposing WR1s, with Dallas allowing just 11.4 FPG.

• Parris Campbell, though, has a clear path to success against a Dallas defense allowing 13.4 FPG to opposing WR2s (2nd-most).

• Donovan Peoples-Jones has the toughest matchup for WR2s, with Houston giving up just 5.6 DraftKings FPG.

Deep Passing YPG Allowed

Quick Analysis

• AJ Brown leads the Eagles in both air yards per game (86.2) and deep targets per game (1.2), so his matchup with a Tennessee defense that allows the most YPG (77.9) and FPG (10.4) on deep passes certainly improves his expectation.

• Marvin Jones leads the Jaguars in deep targets per game (1.4), and he could go overlooked in tournaments as a tertiary pass-catching option, despite Detroit allowing the 3rd-most YPG (62.9) and 2nd-most FPG (8.8) on deep throws this year.

• Amari Cooper averages the 8th-most deep targets per game (2.0) and 37% of his total fantasy scoring has come on deep targets this season. That’s bad news against a Houston defense that’s allowed the 3rd-fewest deep YPG (26.6) to opposing pass catchers.

QB FPG Allowed

Quick Analysis

• No team allows more passing FPG than the Pittsburgh Steelers (17.9), setting up Marcus Mariota with arguably the best matchup he’s had through the air all season.

• The Raiders are the single-most efficient defense to pass against this season, allowing a league-leading 106.4 passer rating and 0.501 passing fantasy points per pass attempt. Justin Herbert should be able to do whatever he wants against this defense through the air.

• I would expect Tennessee to rely on Derrick Henry heavily in Week 13, given Philadelphia is easily the least-efficient pass defense to throw on this season, allowing a league-low 71.4 passer rating to opposing QBs.

RB FPG Allowed

Quick Analysis

• The Rams’ backfield has an awesome matchup against a Seattle defense that’s allowing the most total FPG (29.8) and the 2nd-most receiving FPG (13.2) to opposing RBs. The only problem? It’s a gross committee, and the Rams’ RBs are collectively averaging just 13.2 FPG (5.1 FPG less than the 2nd-worst team). I’m staying away from this backfield no matter what.

• It’s easy to look at YPC allowed and assume the Giants are a great matchup for opposing RBs. That’s probably true for Brian Robinson (who has just 7 targets on the season) given the Giants are allowing the 7th-most rushing FPG (16.6), but I would stay away from Antonio Gibson (who is questionable) with New York allowing the 2nd-fewest receiving FPG (6.4) to opposing RBs.

• I’m not eager to play any Miami RBs against this San Francisco defense allowing a league-low 3.2 YPC and the 2nd-fewest FPG (16.9) to opposing RBs overall.

• Joe Mixon has an underrated matchup against a Kansas City defense that’s allowed the 4th-most receiving FPG to opposing RBs this season (12.6). On the year, Mixon is averaging the 6th-most targets per game (5.3) of any RB. He’s much more of a receiving RB than he gets credit for. But be sure to monitor his status as he returns from a concussion.

TE Funnel Defenses (% of Total Receiving Fantasy Points Allowed to TEs)

Quick Analysis

• With Arizona on a bye, the Giants and Dolphins profile as the top-2 “TE Funnel” defenses of the week, allowing 27.5% of total receiving fantasy production to go to opposing TEs. So, we are looking at compelling matchups for Logan Thomas and George Kittle.

• On the opposite end, I wouldn’t expect much production from Tampa Bay TEs this week with New Orleans allowing a league-low 15% of total receiving fantasy production to opposing TEs.

• New England is the No. 4 TE funnel based on their 27.4% of total receiving fantasy production going to TEs. Dawson Knox looks underrated for the showdown slate this evening.

Fantasy Points Over Expectation (XFP)

Quick Analysis

• There isn’t a less efficient matchup for opposing RBs (based on XFP) than the San Francisco 49ers. I would be avoiding Miami RBs at all costs this week.

• DeVonta Smith doesn’t just have a great matchup for outside WRs, he also draws the 4th-best matchup for RWRs, where he plays 42% of his snaps. AJ Brown also draws a top-5 matchup, given he lines up as a LWR on 37% of his snaps (the most of any alignment).

• Dalton Schultz draws a strong matchup against an Indianapolis defense that’s allowed 120% more fantasy points than expected against TE (4th-most).

• Tyreek Hill runs 40% of his routes from the slot. That’s great news against a San Francisco defense that’s allowed 135% more fantasy points than expected against slot WRs.

• The Browns rank as the most efficient matchup for opposing RBs on the ground (by XFP), which suggests an elite matchup for Dameon Pierce, who has scored 77% of his fantasy points this year on the ground.

OL vs. DL (Rushing / Passing)

Quick Analysis

• Based on team yards before contact per attempt vs. opponent yards before contact per attempt allowed, Josh Jacobs, the questionable Travis Etienne, Brian Robinson, Dameon Pierce, and Nick Chubb have the most favorable rushing matchups of the week.

• On the opposite end, New England RBs have easily the worst rushing matchup of the week. Eagles’ RBs and Dalvin Cook aren’t too far behind.

• Based on the average pressure rate over expectation between Tampa Bay and New Orleans, Tom Brady has the top passing matchup of the week, at least from a pressure perspective.

• And, the bottom of that chart illustrates that Justin Fields and Matt Ryan have brutal matchups, as they project to face the most pressure this week.

Pass Rate Over Expectation

Quick Analysis

• The Titans profile as the premier pass funnel this week with Arizona on a bye. Tennessee is allowing a +6.3% pass rate over expectation this season.

• Chicago profiles as the top run funnel matchup, allowing -5.5% pass rate over expectation. The Packers should rely on AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones even more in Week 13.

• Miami ranks 6th in pass rate over expectation (+5.9%), but that’s actually not quite correct. Miami has posted a +8.3% pass rate over expectation in Tua Tagovailoa’s seven healthy games. That ranks 3rd among all teams over the full season. So, they are even more aggressive through the air with a healthy starting QB.

Graham Barfield’s Pace of Play Model

Quick Analysis

• Cincinnati vs. Kansas City is the premier pace of play matchup this week, with both teams combining for a truly absurd 22.8% pass rate over expectation, and the most plays per game (69.2). That shouldn’t come as a surprise, given this is the highest-total game (53.0) of the week.

• Dallas vs. Indianapolis doesn’t profile as a great matchup for fantasy purposes, given they offer the 8th-highest total of the week (44.5), but the pace of play model suggests there may be some underrated shootout potential here.

• I know it will be tempting to target the Philadelphia offense given how incredible they’ve been for fantasy this season, but I’m going to be shying away from game stacks here due to pace concerns.

Dank Stats