DFS Early Look: Week 7


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DFS Early Look: Week 7

Week 6 of the NFL regular season just wrapped up, and that means Week 7 is just around the corner. As my readers likely know, DFS is the best version of fantasy football, and since DraftKings and FanDuel have released their Week 7 prices, it’s time to track down the obvious values and best plays.

Here are the plays that jump out to me for Week 7 DFS:

Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (VS. SEA)

DraftKings: $7,200 (QB3) | Fanduel: $8,100 (QB4)

There isn’t a matchup or game environment that sticks out to me more than Justin Herbert against Seattle in the highest-total game of the slate (52.5). The Seattle defense is PFF’s 3rd-worst graded coverage unit, giving up the 10th-most passing YPG (245.0) and the 3rd-most yards per pass attempt (7.8).

In his career, Herbert averages an incredible 28.6 FPG in his 18 career wins, compared to just 21.2 FPG in his 19 career losses. LAC’s win probability this week 76%, and when we also factor in the excellent matchup, I’d be shocked if Herbert wasn’t one of the highest-owned QBs of Week 7.

Davis Mills, QB, Houston Texans (@ LV)

DraftKings: $5,000 (QB24) | Fanduel: $6,300 (QB23)

I rarely write up multiple QBs in Early Look, but Mills jumps out to me as a rather obvious contrarian option in Week 7.

His matchup is outstanding, as the Raiders have allowed the most FPG (27.7) to opposing QBs this season while giving up the 9th-most passing YPG (256.0), 4th-most passing TDs (11), and grading out as PFF’s 7th-worst coverage unit (49.9).

Mills isn't a compelling fantasy QB, but he’s absurdly cheap ($5,000) – so cheap that 25.0 fantasy points from Mills are equivalent to 40.0 fantasy points from Lamar Jackson ($8,000). And Mills has shown that kind of upside in the past, scoring over 20.0 FPs (at least 4X of his Week 7 salary) in 19% of his 16 career starts.

It’s not sexy, I get it. But Mills is going to be one of my favorite contrarian QBs in tournaments this week given he’s priced as a backup QB (I’m not kidding, he’s the same price as Will Grier and Nick Foles) in a rather compelling matchup that should feature plenty of negative gamescript with Houston listed as 7.0-point underdogs.

Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders (VS. HOU)

DraftKings: $6,500 (RB11) | Fanduel: $8,600 (RB6)

From Weeks 3 through 5, Josh Jacobs earned the 2nd-best workload among all RBs (21.1 XFP/G). And over his last two games, Jacobs has barely left the field (85% snap share), while being heavily involved as a receiver (57% route share and 19% target share) – revealing that he’s finally engrained as the Raiders’ bell cow.

Houston is easily one of the best matchups for opposing RBs, ranking 2nd-worst in PFF rush defense grades (40.5), 2nd-worst in FPG allowed to opposing RBs (30.4), 4th-worst in YPC allowed (5.1), and 3rd-worst in opponent rushing YPG allowed (164.8). Expect Jacobs to be chalk on DraftKings as he should cost at least $1,100 more than his Week 7 price tag.

Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets (@ DEN)

DraftKings: $6,200 (RB13) | Fanduel: $7,600 (RB12)

Over the last three weeks among RBs, Hall ranks 7th in fantasy points per snap (0.52), 1st in red zone carries (14), 1st in inside the 5 carries (7), 3rd in receiving yards (117), and 5th in FPG (21.2). It’s difficult not to regard Hall as at least a mid-range RB1 now that he’s regularly seeing close to 70% of snaps, granted that’s still not fully reflected in his price.

For Week 7, Hall is faced with a largely neutral matchup that could feature a decent bit of negative gamescript with the Jets listed as 3.0-point underdogs. He’s still way too cheap, and I would expect him to be one of the highest-owned RBs in Week 7 as a result.

Kenneth Walker, RB, Seattle Seahawks (@ LAC)

DraftKings: $5,800 (RB20) | Fanduel: $7,300 (RB14)

Walker was a high-end workhorse on Sunday, earning 69% of snaps and 24 opportunities, scoring 19.0 FPs while coming up just three yards short of the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings.

And it's difficult to argue that there is a better matchup for any workhorse RB than the Los Angeles Chargers. No team allows a higher YPC (5.8) or more FPG (32.0) to opposing RBs than LAC, and they rank 5th-worst in PFF team rush defense grades. So, this is the perfect matchup for Walker – who is still underpriced relative to the low-end RB1 workload he’s locked into. The only notable risk would be significant negative gamescript in a blowout loss, but even that’s not overly concerning after Walker ran more routes (16) than DeeJay Dallas (13) on Sunday.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions (@ DAL)

DraftKings: $7,100 (WR6) | Fanduel: $7,500 (WR8)

St. Brown was headed for a $9,000 price tag on both DFS sites before he hurt his ankle in Week 3, leading to him sitting out Week 4, and playing limited snaps in Week 5. But, he should be close to 100% health following the Lions' Week 6 bye.

And, that means he’s a screaming value after averaging an insane 26.3 FPG and seeing double-digit targets in each of his eight games prior to injury. For perspective, Cooper Kupp has never had an eight-game streak of double-digit targets, and 26.3 FPG would be the greatest WR fantasy season of all time if it were sustained for a full year. Based on that, we could argue that St. Brown (at full health) is a remarkably similar fantasy asset to Kupp, but with the key difference of being about $2,500 cheaper on both DFS sites. St. Brown should be popular in Week 7 among DFS players looking to take advantage of that discount against a Dallas secondary that’s mostly been a neutral matchup against opposing slots this year.

Alec Pierce, WR, Indianapolis Colts (@ TEN)

DraftKings: $4,600 (WR39) | Fanduel: $6,100 (WR25)

Pierce has been the WR24 by FPG over the last three weeks (14.0), earning at least 80 receiving yards or a receiving TD each week, while seeing his route share jump to a respectable 71% over his last two games. He’s still underpriced relative to his current role, but it’s Pierce’s Week 7 matchup that makes him an especially compelling play.

Tennessee is giving up the most FPG (44.3) to opposing WRs, ranking 7th-worst in PFF team coverage grades (54.8) and 4th-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing outside WRs (+8.2). So, this is an outstanding matchup for Pierce and the more appropriately priced Michael Pittman, granted Pierce is my preferred target.

Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, New York Giants (@ JAX)

DraftKings: $4,500 (WR42) | Fanduel: $5,500 (WR41)

Robinson was eased back in coming off an injury in Week 6, running just 11 routes, but earning an encouraging 4 targets while finishing with the 2nd-most receiving yards (37) on the team, and scoring a TD. And, I would imagine Robinson’s Week 7 role is a significantly expanded one (assuming his health continues to improve), given the Giants have been trotting out practice-squad caliber WRs due to the plethora of injuries they’ve faced at the position this season.

Granted, the Week 7 matchup isn’t ideal, with Jacksonville allowing the 4th-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG (-4.8) to opposing slot WRs this year. Still, there’s merit to playing Robinson as an aggressive bet on volume – he leads the Giants in TPRR (0.33), and we know New York has the appetite for a high-volume WR given Sterling Shepard averaged 8.0 targets per game in his three games this season.

Cade Otton, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ CAR)

DraftKings: $2,700 (TE27) | Fanduel: $4,900 (TE14)

Cade Otton is Tampa’s bell cow TE until Cameron Brate returns from his concussion. In Week 5, Otton logged a 94% snap share, a team-leading 93% route share, and 7 targets for a 13% target share. At least on DraftKings, Otton is a screaming value in his current role with Tampa once again throwing the ball at a top-5 rate.

Jake Tribbey is the 2022 FSWA Football Writer of the Year and the leading Spring Football expert in the fantasy industry. He is a lifelong football fan obsessed with extracting every edge possible from DFS, Best Ball, and player props/futures.