2022 Betting Preview: Philadelphia Eagles

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2022 Betting Preview: Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles turned the page to a new era in 2021 with the franchise moving on from Super Bowl-winning HC Doug Pederson and the face of the team Carson Wentz. The pair came in together in 2016 but ​​the Eagles bottomed out in 2020 after winning the Super Bowl just three short seasons before. The Eagles decided to go in a different direction by hiring then 39-year-old Nick Sirianni as head coach and by handing the offensive reins to 2019 Heisman runner-up Jalen Hurts. Philadelphia took its lumps early in the season with a 3-6 start against a tough opening schedule, but they closed the regular season with a 6-1 finish in their last seven meaningful contests against a much easier slate of opponents. The Eagles ended the season with a five-win improvement from 2020 and they returned to the playoffs (+275) for the fourth time in the last five years.

Hurts predictably had his issues as a passer, averaging just 209.6 passing yards per game in 15 contests, which was exactly what Wentz averaged in 17 games with the Colts. Hurts’ dual-threat ability propelled the offense as he led all quarterbacks in rushing yards (784) and rushing TDs (10). The Eagles finished first in rushing yards (1834) and rushing TDs (18) while finishing second in attempts (458) and fourth in YPC (4.9). Somehow Miles Sanders still managed to be a major fantasy disappointment despite playing in Philadelphia’s prolific rushing attack. He failed to score a single touchdown despite touching the rock 163 times and averaging 5.5 YPC. Philly’s lack of a consistent passing attack was exposed in its 31-15 loss to the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round.

2021 By the Numbers

  • Record (ATS): 9-9 (8-9-1)

  • Season Win Total: 6.5 (over)

  • One-possession Record: 2-4

  • Playoff Odds: +275

  • Over/Under record: 10-8

  • PPG: 26.1(12th)

  • PPG Allowed: 22.6 (18th)

  • Point Differential: +59 (13th)

2022 Schedule

WeekOpponentSpreadTime
1@Detroit Lions-41
2Minnesota Vikings-2.58:30 (Mon)
3@Washington CommandersPK1
4Jacksonville Jaguars-61
5@Arizona Cardinals+24:25
6Dallas CowboysPK8:20
7BYE
8Pittsburgh Steelers-31
9@Houston Texans-4.58:15 (Thurs)
10Washington Commanders-3.58:15 (Mon)
11@Indianapolis Colts+31
12Green Bay PackersPK8:20
13Tennessee Titans-11
14@New York Giants-1.51
15@Chicago Bears-2.51
16@Dallas Cowboys+3.54:25 (Sat)
17New Orleans Saints-31
18New York Giants-5TBA

The Good

  • The Eagles have the second-easiest schedule based on opponent win totals (per Sharp Football).

  • The Eagles will travel the ninth-fewest miles (13,940) and they’ll cross 10 time zones this season (per Bookies.com).

  • Philadelphia will face just one opponent coming off of a bye when they travel to Chicago in Week 15.

  • The Eagles have an extra home game.

The Bad

  • The Eagles have a league-high four short-rest road games. They face the Commanders in Week 3 after facing the Vikings on MNF a week earlier and they take on the Texans on TNF in Week 9. They face the Colts in Week 11 after playing the Commanders on MNF a week earlier and they meet the Cowboys on Saturday in Week 16.

  • Philadelphia is tied for the most primetime games with five. They’ll host the Vikings (W2), Cowboys (W6), Commanders (W10), and Packers (W12). They’ll travel to Houston (W9) for their lone road primetime contest.

Key Off-season Moves

AdditionsDraftDepartures
WR Zach PascalDT Jordan DavisLB Alex Singleton (Den)
EDGE Haason ReddickC Cameron JurgensCB Steven Nelson (Hou)
WR A.J. BrownLB Nakobe Dean
CB James Bradberry
LB Kyzir White
S Jaquiski Tartt

2022 Season Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Team FuturesOdds
Season Win Total (O/U)9.5 (-120/+100)
NFC East+165
Playoffs (Y/N)-190/+150
NFC Championship+1100
Super Bowl+2500

Season Prop Movement

Win Total: 8.5 (+100) in late March to 9.5 (-120) in early July

Super Bowl: +3300 in mid-February to +2500 in early July

Reasons to Bet Over the Season Win Total

The Eagles snapped a three-year run finishing under their win total with a nine-win campaign last season, and they made win-now moves to potentially get to double-digit victories this season. Philadelphia struggled to draft WRs in recent years and they had one of the league’s weakest WR corps behind DeVonta Smith last season. GM Howie Roseman took a different path to upgrade Jalen Hurts’ weapons in late April by making the headline trade of the Draft. They landed young stud A.J. Brown for the 18th and 101st overall picks to give Hurts a big-time trio at receiver among Brown, Smith, and Dallas Goedert.

The Eagles saw their win total and Super Bowl odds improve the most over NFL Draft weekend because of the Brown trade, but they also made some selections to help them in 2022. The Eagles selected two Georgia defensive starters in Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean who could make immediate contributions. They previously signed Haason Reddick, who registered 23.5 sacks in 2020-21, to help their pass rush. Philly then landed former division rival James Bradberry after the Giants released him following the Draft, which gives them a formidable duo at cornerback with Bradberry and Darius Slay. Philadelphia should also have one of the best offensive lines once again after they convinced Jason Kelce to play another season. For good measure, they drafted Nebraska’s Cam Jurgens as Kelce’s future replacement and for O-line depth.

Reasons to Bet Under the Season Win Total

Philadelphia’s roster stacks up with some of the league’s best except at the most important position. Jalen Hurts exceeded pretty low expectations as a first-time, full-time starter, but he still left a lot to be desired as a passer. The Eagles went from a 61% pass rate through the first seven games to a league-low 43% pass rate in Weeks 8-17. The run-heavy approach worked against inferior opponents but his’ passing deficiencies were exposed most memorably against Tampa Bay in the Wild Card Round when the Eagles quickly fell behind 31-0.

The Eagles have signaled that they want to move back toward a more pass-heavy approach by trading for A.J. Brown, but Hurts' development will ultimately determine just how much they throw this season. Gardner Minshew will be waiting in the wings should Hurts fail to make strides as a passer. The Eagles don’t have many holes in their current roster outside of maybe their safety spots among Anthony Harris, Marcus Epps, and K’Von Wallace. They signed Jaquiski Tartt to try to patch up the position after the Draft. The Eagles have the second-easiest schedule based on win totals, but the NFL did hand them a league-high four short-rest road games.

Notable Player Props

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

A.J. Brown: receiving yards (1009.5), receiving TDs (6.5), most receiving yards (+2000), OPOY (+8000)

Fantasy Points Projection — receiving yards (1145), receiving TDs (8.5)

  • Best-Case Scenario: Philadelphia opens up its passing attack after trying to do it last season, and this time it sticks thanks to Brown’s presence as the clear top receiver for Jalen Hurts.

  • Worst-Case Scenario: Jalen Hurts proves to be a big dropoff at quarterback from Ryan Tannehill, and Brown’s knee issues continue to linger in Philadelphia and limit his playing time.

Jalen Hurts: passing yards (3650.5), passing TDs (22.5), rushing yards yards (710.5), most passing yards (+3500), MVP (+2000)

Fantasy Points Projection — passing yards (3615), passing TDs (21), rushing yards (660)

  • Best-Case Scenario: Hurts takes off as a passer in his second season as a starter with A.J. Brown rounding out a formidable trio at receiver with DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert
  • Worst-Case Scenario: The Eagles open the season with a pass-heavy attack for the second straight season and, for the second straight season, they ditch the plan with Hurts failing to improve as a passer.

Best Bets and Leans

Best Bets

Philadelphia Eagles over 8.5 wins (-133, FOXBet, placed May 10). Risk 1.33 units to win one unit.

Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC East (+250, DraftKings, placed May 10). Risk one unit to win 2.5 units.

  • Jalen Hurts is still a question mark at quarterback but the rest of the Eagles’ roster is ready to contend for a championship. They added A.J. Brown, James Bradberry, and Haason Reddick to an already loaded group that’s now on par with the Cowboys at the top of the division. The Eagles also have the second-easiest schedule based on opponent win totals, and they have extra games against the Cardinals, Saints, and Steelers. Philly’s extra games are much easier than Dallas’ bonus contests against the Rams, Buccaneers, and Bengals.

Leans

None of note.

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.