New York Giants (2-5, 3-4 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-4, 2-5), 8:15 p.m., MNF
Brolley’s Giants Stats and Trends
The Giants are 11-3-1 toward unders in their last 15 games.
Daniel Jones has fallen below 18 FP in three straight games because of a concussion and receiver injuries. He completed 23/33 passes for 203 yards and one TD while adding 8/28 rushing and 1/16 receiving in a victory over the Panthers in Week 7. The Chiefs have given up 20+ FP in five of their last six games, and they’re allowing the second-most FPG (24.9) to QBs this season.
Kadarius Toney (ankle), Kenny Golladay (knee), and Sterling Shepard (hamstring) are all in a race to play this week. Shepard probably has the best chance of playing after getting the most practice time, followed by Golladay then Toney. Darius Slayton and Dante Pettis will be viable fantasy options if any or all of these WRs miss Monday night. Slayton operated as Daniel Jones’ top option in a Week 7 victory over the Panthers, posting 5/63 receiving on a team-high nine targets (26% share) while playing a position-best 61% of the snaps. Pettis has strung together 10/87/1 receiving on 16 targets over the last two weeks, and he ran 85% of his routes from the slot with Shepard out of the lineup. The Chiefs have faced the third-fewest targets (16.9) but they’re allowing 8.9 YPT to WRs.
Evan Engram cracked double-digit FP last week for the first time in his first five games, posting 6/44 receiving on eight targets. He’s now averaging by far a career-low 8.6 YPR with just 171 yards on 20 catches so far. Engram has yet to score a touchdown this season, but he has a chance this week against a Chiefs’ defense that’s allowed TE touchdowns in four straight games.
It’s looking like Devontae Booker will get one more start while Saquon Barkley continues to heal from his ankle injury. He’s been completely mediocre but he’s reached 10+ FP in three straight games filling in for Barkley thanks to his workhorse role with 16+ touches in each contest. He’s averaging just 3.2 YPC but he’s scored three times and is averaging 3.0 catches per game. The Chiefs are giving up 140.2 scrimmage yards per game and the ninth-most FPG (26.0) to RBs this season.
Brolley’s Chiefs Stats and Trends
Kansas City is 4-14 ATS over their last 18 games.
The Chiefs are coming off their worst offensive showing in Andy Reid’s nine seasons. Kansas City scored just three points against a lowly Titans’ defense in Week 7, which was the team’s fewest points scored in a game since the final contest of the Romeo Crennel era in 2012.
Patrick Mahomes got blown up on a big hit late in Week 7, and he’ll be coming into this week against the Giants a little worse for wear despite passing concussion tests. It was an unceremonious end to the game for Mahomes, who completed 20/35 passes for 206 scoreless yards (5.9 YPA) with one INT and a lost fumble. Mahomes has now averaged under 6.0 YPA in three of his last five games, and he’s tied with Zach Wilson for the league lead in interceptions thrown with nine. Mahomes scored 21+ FP in each of his first six games before his 9.7 FP dud last week, but his recent performances leave a lot to be desired. The Giants allowed Matthew Stafford (251/4 passing) and Dak Prescott (302/3) to post 22+ FP in Weeks 5-6 before they stifled Sam Darnold (3.5 FP).
Tyreek Hill is battling through a quad injury in recent weeks, which has limited his practice participation and his on-field production. He finished with 6/49 receiving on nine targets in an embarrassing loss to the Titans in Week 7. Hill has fallen below 15 FP in four of his seven games this season after falling below that mark just three times in 15 regular-season contests last season. Tyreek is still averaging 7.4 catches and 10.3 targets per game, and he gets an extra day to get ready for MNF this week. D.J. Moore managed 6/73 receiving in this matchup last week even with Darnold stinking up the joint.
Travis Kelce is pushing through a neck injury the last couple of weeks after he suffered a stinger on a nasty hit at the end of Kansas City’s loss to the Bills in Week 5. Kelce hasn’t missed a game for an injury since he played just a single special teams snap as a rookie in 2013. He’ll have to be dragged off the field for his current injury, but he is missing practice time and his performance has suffered a bit after posting 7/65 receiving on 12 targets against the Titans. He’s now finished with 65 or fewer yards in three of his last four games after falling below that mark just twice in 18 total games last season (postseason included). He’s also averaged fewer than 10.0 YPR in those three contests, and he’s on pace to average fewer than 12 YPR for the first time in his career — he sits at 11.8 YPR through seven games. Kelce is still averaging 6.4 catches and 9.3 targets per game. The Giants are giving up the 15th-most FPG (13.4) to TEs so far.
Mecole Hardman continues to underwhelm most weeks with just one performance with 13+ FP in seven tries this season. He’s third in targets (40) this season but he owns just a 13% target share. The Giants are giving up the 12th-fewest receiving yards per game (162.6) to WRs.
Darrel Williams will get at least one more start with Clyde Edwards-Helaire (knee) out again. He played 64% of the snaps but he did nothing with the offense struggling overall, posting 5/20 rushing and 3/30 receiving on four targets. Jerick McKinnon didn’t do much either, with just 2/17 receiving on four targets on a 31% target share. If the Chiefs decide to commit some to the run, the Giants are giving up 4.5 YPC and the fifth-most rushing yards per game (111.6) to RBs.
Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies
Pace (seconds in between plays): 26.8 (9th)
Plays per game: 67.7 (15th)
Pass: 64.1% (10th) | Run: 35.9% (23rd)
Pace: 27.5 (12th)
Plays per game: 72.1 (6th)
Pass: 66.0% (6th) | Run: 34.0% (27th)
All of the Chiefs flaws are largely covered up by Patrick Mahomes, but we saw the result of what happens when he struggles last week. Kansas City is a carnival team for fantasy – everyone scores! – which is great, but they have a long way to go to salvage their season. Their defense deserves the blame and simply can’t get off of the field right now. Kansas City ranks dead-last in points allowed per drive, yards allowed per drive, third-worst in third down conversion rate, and have now allowed 27 or more points in 6-of-7 games. The Giants have been snake-bitten by injuries again this season, but if Daniel Jones can get a few of his key weapons back – at least Shepard and Toney – this game has explosive upside for fantasy. Overall, this is the second-best game on the Week 8 slate from a pace / play perspective with both offenses above-average in both categories. We know the Chiefs are going to bounce back and this is certainly the right spot for it, but the Giants could turn this game into a shootout if their offense is somewhat healthy.
Huber’s Key Matchup Notes
If he can get on the field on Monday night, I like this matchup for Giant slot WR Sterling Shepard. Since Shepard does three-fourths of his work from the slot, a showdown with L'Jarius Sneed is on tap. Sneed press zone coverage is supporting 1.57 YPCS (36th), 0.34 FP/CS (37th), 0.20 AY/CS (24th), and a 145.1 TPR (40th). Advantage Shepard.
We’ve been witness to some of the very worst football ever displayed by Patrick Mahomes II and company during his young career. As it stands, the Chiefs have a 46% chance to make the playoffs. And it should be noted that Kansas City has played the eighth-toughest schedule to date. When you have the benefit of Andy Reid, Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill, the only expectation is a return to the Super Bowl.
But the run game could be important for the Chiefs to get things back on schedule. Darrel Williams took on a 75% carry share in his first game replacing Clyde Edwards-Helaire. And the results followed suit (23.9 FPs). His second game as the lead back did not go as well. Tennessee handed Kansas City their molasses in Week 7. But this is a smash spot — New York’s run defense is delivering 26.8 FPG to opposing RBs (seventh-most).
Dolan’s Vantage Points
It’s unfortunate that the Giants play on Monday night, because a lot of folks who would be looking forward to streaming Daniel Jones in this smash spot won’t have full information on the availability of his weapons.
It looks like Sterling Shepard (hamstring), will be good to go, at least. While there’s no real footage of him running routes, he was getting down in practice to a Halloween classic.
Sterling Shepard. Thriller pic.twitter.com/qlfPwbNJWy— Art Stapleton (@art_stapleton) October 29, 2021
Shepard has said he expects to play following a “tweak,” not a setback, last week.
Sterling Shepard “super-confident” he will be able to play vs. #Chiefs. Feels good. Ran well at practice Thursday. Just tweaked his hamstring late last week. https://t.co/4LODEigW7s— Jordan Raanan (@JordanRaanan) October 28, 2021
Kadarius Toney (ankle) returned to practice in a limited fashion on Friday, while Saquon Barkley (ankle) and Kenny Golladay (knee) did not. It appears Shepard and TE Evan Engram (calf) have a better chance of going than Toney, while Toney has a better chance than Barkley and Golladay.
Barkley being out opens up another week of potential usefulness for Devontae Booker against an atrocious run defense, while WRs Dante Pettis and Darius Slayton would also be in the streaming conversation if Golladay and/or Toney miss.
The Chiefs have never struggled so thoroughly as they are right now in the Patrick Mahomes era. But hey, at least his looney toon brother is having fun.
This is a broken man pic.twitter.com/Z68mPteCoH— Mike Renner (@PFF_Mike) October 29, 2021
So, what is the tape showing on Mahomes. Our Greg Cosell had some observations from last week’s game against the Titans:
“Mahomes still too much unnecessary movement not showing the needed patience in the pocket to work through progressions, Other times he is a beat slow to eliminate and isolate which also results in movement (Evans interception in the 2nd quarter) or getting stuck in the pocket
What’s interesting is Mahomes right now is not seeing things with clarity, He looks unsettled and tentative in the pocket; He is leaving too many throws within structure on the field
Titans played significant snaps of split safety, featuring cover 2, cover 4/6/8 and 2 man; The objective was to take away the deep throws and make Mahomes be patient in the pocket”
Greg has also been noting that the Chiefs’ overreliance on the RPO has been having some negative effects on Mahomes’ play, something other analysts have pointed out as well.
Last week, #NFL analyst @GregCosell pointed to Mahomes' unrest within the pocket as a cause for the #ChiefsKingdom struggles. For detailed film study, and X & O analysis, tune in to @NFLMatchup. Every week, on @ESPN. https://t.co/Sk4tL5jQqn— NFL Matchup on ESPN (@NFLMatchup) October 26, 2021
Still, you have to play Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce, even though the latter two are dinged up. It’s just the bed the Chiefs have made.
Wes mentioned above why he likes Darrell Williams this week. For more context… Over the last two weeks with Clyde Edwards-Helaire out, Darrel has handled 27 of the 30 RB carries and has run a route on 66% of the pass plays. Williams is seeing 8+ men in the box on just 9.6% of his carries, the fourth-lowest rate in the league. So obviously, defenses still feel they must respect the Kansas City passing game, even if things don’t look good.