Kansas City Chiefs (2-3, 1-4 ATS) at Washington Football Team (2-3, 1-4), 1 p.m.
Brolley’s Chiefs Stats and Trends
Kansas City and Washington are tied for the worst ATS record in the league with the Jets, Jaguars, and 49ers also owning 1-4 marks.
The Chiefs are 4-1 toward overs.
The Chiefs are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games.
Kansas City’s defensive struggles have Patrick Mahomes pressing too much for the big play, who is coming off a career single-game worst 5.0 YPA. He’s on pace for a career-low 7.6 YPA (he’s never averaged fewer than 8.1 YPA), and his six INTs in five games matches his INT total from 15 games in 2020. The Football Team is giving up the second-most points per game (31.0) and the sixth-most yards per game (407.8) after ranking in the top four of both categories last season.
Tyreek Hill suffered a minor knee injury last week but he still saw a position-best 85% of the snaps. He managed just 7/63 receiving (9.0 YPR) on a team-high 13 targets (24% share) against the Bills. Hill is back to seeing double-digit targets in each of the last two weeks after he posted just 8/70 receiving on 11 targets in Weeks 2-3 against the Ravens and Chargers. The Football Team is giving up the fifth-most receiving yards per game (205.0) to WRs this season, and Deonte Harris got loose downfield for a 72-yard touchdown last week.
Travis Kelce took a nasty hit in the head/neck at the end of Kansas City’s loss to the Bills in Week 5. Kelce hasn’t missed a game for an injury since he played just a single special teams snap as a rookie in 2013. He’s played in 115 games since 2014 with his only two missed games coming when the Chiefs rested him in the 2017 and 2020 season finales with their playoff seeding wrapped up. Kelce had a nine-game run of 20+ FP through Week 2 that dated back to last season (postseason included), but he’s cooled off a bit the last three weeks, topping out at 17.7 FP in his last three games with 6/57/1 receiving in Week 5. Washington is giving just 5.2/55.8/.2 receiving to TEs through five weeks.
Mecole Hardman posted season-bests in targets (12), catches (9), and receiving yards (76) against the Bills last week even with Josh Gordon seeing his first action of the season — he ran just four routes. Hardman had just 13/123/1 receiving on 18 targets through the first four weeks. Washington is giving up the fifth-most receiving yards per game (205.0) to WRs so far.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire suffered an ugly-looking knee injury in Kansas City’s loss to the Bills in Week 5, but he escaped with an MCL sprain, which landed him on the IR. Darrel Williams is likely to step into the lead back role with Jerick McKinnon factoring in behind him, mostly in passing situations. Williams posted 5/27 rushing and 3/18 receiving on five targets on 43% of the snaps in Week 5 while McKinnon had a two-yard carry while catching both of his targets for 13 yards on 31% of the snaps. The Chiefs are giving up just 3.7 YPC and 4.0 catches per game to RBs this season, but they have given up six receiving TDs to RBs in the last three weeks.
Brolley’s Washington Stats and Trends
Washington has played over the total in four straight games.
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.
It came out before Week 5 that Antonio Gibson is playing through a stress fracture in his shin, which explains Gibson’s slightly sluggish start to his 2021 campaign. It also explains why his role in the passing game has remained stagnant from his rookie season. He battled through the injury in Week 5 by posting 20/60/2 rushing while catching his only two targets for 12 yards on 19 routes and a 57% snap share in a tough matchup against the Saints. The Chiefs have been ripped for 4.7 YPC and one rushing touchdown per game by RBs this season.
J.D. McKissic mustered just 3/7 scrimmage in a negative gamescript last week, but this should be a good spot for him to be active this week in a potential shootout as seven-point home underdogs. The Chiefs are giving up the fifth-most receiving yards per game (54.0) to RBs, including 3/55 receiving to Zack Moss last week.
Taylor Heinicke posted his first dud in Week 5 after throwing for multiple scores and posting 21+ FP in his first three starts of the season. He completed 20/41 passes for 248 scoreless yards (6.0 YPA) and two INTs but he at least added 5/40 rushing. The Chiefs are allowing the most points per game (32.6) and the second-most yards per game (437.4) after Josh Allen averaged 31.3 yards per completion against them in the first half last week.
Terry McLaurin’s production has been erratic with fewer than 11 FP in three games and 27+ FP in his two other games. He struggled against the Saints last week with 4/46 receiving, but he did see 11 targets (27% share), but he has a great spot to bounce back in this week. The Chiefs have been shredded for 15.0 YPR to WRs, including 7/122 receiving to DeVonta Smith in Week 4.
Ricky Seals-Jones played on 99% of the snaps in his first game without Logan Thomas (hamstring, IR). He finished with a solid 5/41 receiving on eight targets (20% share) with a couple of end-zone targets in Washington’s loss to the Saints in Week 5. He also had a 44-yard reception negated by an offensive penalty so he was close to having a huge game in Week 5. Dawson Knox ripped the Chiefs for 3/117/1 receiving last week after Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert combined for 11/116/1 receiving against them in Week 4.
Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies
Pace (seconds in between plays): 27.6 (13th)
Plays per game: 69.2 (13th)
Pass: 62.8% (11th) | Run: 37.2% (22nd)
Pace: 25.4 (3rd)
Plays per game: 63.8 (26th)
Pass: 57.4% (22nd) | Run: 42.6% (11th)
The Chiefs continued their streak of five-straight games combining for 54 or more points last week with another over hitting against the Bills. Chiefs’ games have averaged to combine for a massive 63.4 total points per game this season and we have their defense to thank for it. Just how bad is it? Well, Kansas City can’t stop giving up yards and points and they can’t rush the passer. And they can’t stop the run. All of which kind of seems like a bad combination. Literally nothing is working for the Chiefs defense and it’s going to continue to make them a carnival for fantasy. Adding more to the likelihood this game shoots out is a Washington offense that is ripping off plays at the third-fastest rate in the league. On the whole, these two teams make up the third-fastest matchup in adjusted combined pace which is like throwing Kerosene on the dumpster fire that is the Chiefs defense. If Taylor Heinicke can put his poor performance behind him from last week, this game has the most scoring upside on the Week 6 slate.
Huber’s Key Matchup Notes
Nearly every starting skill on both teams is deserving of a “Key Matchup Note.” For Kansas City, the very elite plays are obvious, but so is Darrel Williams. For Washington, it’s all about Taylor Heinicke, Antonio Gibson, and Terry McLaurin.
For F1 McLaurin, when he aligns on the right side on half of his routes, Mike Hughes will be stationed across from him. That’s a big win for F1. Another guy I like for Washington is TE Ricky Seals-Jones, who gets Daniel Sorensen on the heels of Dawson Knox embarrassing Sorensen on primetime national TV last week.
During their 38-20 beating at the hands of Buffalo, KC’s Tyreek Hill was limited to a 7/63/0 line, mainly within the coverage of Tre'Davious White (4/33/0). White does not typically trail a single WR, but he made the exception in Hill’s case. But Tyreek will see nothing even remotely resembling the zone-heavy shadow of White from Washington. I love him to go off here.
Dolan’s Vantage Points
Wes pretty much nailed it above. This is a “Start ‘Em if You’ve Got ‘Em” game.
We know that’s the case with Kansas City, with Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce (who suffered a stinger on a nasty hit last week but is apparently OK).
If you need a solid RB2 this week with Clyde Edwards-Helaire (knee) on short-term IR, our pick is Darrel Williams over Jerick McKinnon. Williams seemed to indicate this week that he will get the first opportunity in the backfield, and it bore out that way last week — he played 24 snaps to McKinnon’s 8 after CEH went down.
Darrel Williams is the Chiefs new RB1, at least for now. He noted this is his first chance to be a regular starter and said, "With this opportunity I've just got to make the most of it." pic.twitter.com/2SL58UDe3f— Adam Teicher (@adamteicher) October 13, 2021
I’m also keeping an eye on the receiving group. Mecole Hardman had a big game in a negative gamescript last week, but apparently Josh Gordon will be more involved this week. In fact, he was supposed to be more involved last week.
Chiefs’ Andy Reid wanted Josh Gordon to play more vs. Bills (via @pgsween): https://t.co/hQlqYErd9f— Arrowhead Pride (@ArrowheadPride) October 13, 2021
He’s not a fantasy option yet, but I don’t blame fantasy players if they want to stash Gordon on the bench.
We have Washington QB Taylor Heinicke ranked as a borderline top-12 QB this week. He’s been a positive streaming option in good matchups so far this year, and this is the good matchup, based on both personnel and gamescript.
Here’s Graham Barfield from Week 6 Start/Sit:
“Last week we saw Heinicke struggle mightily for the first time in his stint as Washington’s starter. After putting up 20 or more FP in four-straight starts, Heinicke completed just 49% of his throws for 6.1 YPA against the Saints in Week 5. Well, good news! Heinicke draws a Chiefs defense that’s giving up yards and points in spades and that’s failing to get to the QB this week. Through five games, Kansas City is allowing 7.1 yards per play (most), 3.29 points per drive (most), and they have generated a sack on just 4% of pass plays (second-lowest rate). As massive underdogs to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, I’m expecting a ton of passing volume for Heinicke here and am trusting him as the top streamer of the week.”
It goes without saying that Terry McLaurin is in a blowup spot here, and he’s by far Heinicke’s favorite target — he has 49 targets from him, while no other Teamster has 19.
One guy I do like this week, though, as Wes alluded, is TE Ricky Seals-Jones. Here’s what our Jake Tribbey had to say:
“Just as I had predicted last week, Ricky Seals-Jones essentially became Logan Thomas. In Week 5, RSJ ranked 2nd among TEs in total routes (42), tied for 4th in targets (8), 1st in snaps (82), and 1st in end zone targets (3). That’s elite Tier, TE1 usage. And it’s pretty shocking RSJ is still available in 98% of Yahoo leagues after that Week 5 performance. Regardless, he draws a dream Week 6 matchup against KC in the highest-total game of the week (55.5), who’s allowed the 5th most FPG to opposing TEs (11.7). If this were Logan Thomas, we would be talking about him as one of the top TE plays of Week 6. Instead, RSJ is flying under the radar when he should be viewed as a low-end TE1 this week. RSJ is far and away the top TE streaming option in leagues too deep for players like Hunter Henry or Evan Engram to be available.”
I am worried this could be a JD McKissic week, given gamescript. He has 17 targets to Antonio Gibson’s 8 over the last four weeks.