Week 3 Game Hub: GB-SF

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Week 3 Game Hub: GB-SF

Green Bay Packers (1-1, 1-1 ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (2-0, 1-1), 8:20 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Packers 23.5, 49ers 26.5

  • Spread/Total Movements: 4 to 3, 48.5 to 50

  • Weather: 60 degrees, 0% chance of rain, 10 mph

  • Packers Injuries to Watch: LT Elgton Jenkins (ankle, doubtful)

  • 49ers Injuries to Watch: RB Elijah Mitchell (shoulder, doubtful), RB Trey Sermon (concussion, probable), RB JaMycal Hasty (ankle, out), DT Arik Armstead (ab, questionable), CB Emmanuel Moseley (knee, questionable)

Brolley’s Packers Stats and Trends

  • These teams have played in three contests decided by 17+ points over the last two seasons, including the Packers wiping out an undermanned 49ers squad 34-17 as six-point road favorites last season.

  • The Packers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 primetime games.

  • Green Bay has played over the total in four straight games as an underdog, and it’s 5-1 toward overs in its last six games.

  • Aaron Rodgers got back to business in Week 2 by completing 22/27 passes for 255 yards (9/4 YPA) for 255 yards and four TD against the Lions. The 49ers held Jalen Hurts to 99 passing yards on 22 attempts (4.5 YPA) outside of a 91-yard connection with Quez Watkins last week, but Rodgers is a whole different animal. He completed 25/31 passes for 305 yards and four TDs in a beatdown of an undermanned 49ers’ defense last week.

  • Davante Adams was the only Packer to squeeze out production in the season opener with 5/56 receiving, and he went back to dominating in Week 2 with 8/121 on nine targets. He has yet to score yet this season and his two-game drought is his longest since he failed to score in Weeks 2 and 6 last season — he missed time for an injury suffered in Week 2. He ripped the 49ers for 10/173/1 receiving on 12 targets last season.

  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling just missed having a massive game in Week 2. Rodgers missed a wide-open MVS for a touchdown in the red zone and he just overshot him for two potential long distance scores. He scored on both of his targets last season for 53/2 receiving.

  • Just like last year, Robert Tonyan did a lot with little in Week 2, turning three targets into three catches for 52 yards and a touchdown. He’s seen just a 12% target share in the early while running the fourth-most routes (41) on the team. Tonyan managed just a five-yard catch against the 49ers last season. T.J. Hockenson burned the 49ers for 8/97/1 receiving in the season opener but Dallad Goedert managed just 2/24 receiving last week.

  • Aaron Jones recovered nicely from his stinker in Week 1 with 6/48/3 receiving and 17/67/1 rushing against the Lions. He also played on 69% of the snaps and most of A.J. Dillon’s work (5/18 rushing, 1/8 receiving) came late in a three-score contest. Jones managed 15/58 rushing and 5/21 receiving in this matchup last season.

Brolley’s 49ers Stats and Trends

  • The 49ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.

  • Jimmy Garoppolo played every snap in their Week 2 victory over the Eagles, and he lost just four snaps to Trey Lance through two weeks. He completed 22/30 passes for 189 yards (6.3 YPA) and one touchdown and he added one-yard touchdown plunge for 19.6 FP. The Packers have given up the seventh-most FPG (25.1) to QBs through two weeks.

  • Deebo Samuel has leapfrogged George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk to the top of the passing game pecking order for now with a 36% target share. He’s turned his 20 looks into 15/282/1 receiving this season, and he now has 5+ catches and 65+ receiving yards in his last six full games. The Packers haven’t been tested at WR yet this season, but Quintez Cephus still got them for 4/63/1 receiving last week.

  • George Kittle hasn’t cracked double-digits targets yet with just nine looks (18%) after a miserable 4/17 receiving line last week. Kittle has now seen five or fewer targets in four of his last five games dating back to last season. The Packers have given up three touchdowns to TEs so far this season and T.J. Hockenson ripped them for 8/66/1 receiving last week.

  • Brandon Aiyuk is on his final legs for fantasy owners this week with just one catch and two targets to his name. He finished second in WR routes (19) once again but it was just on 58% of Jimmy G’s dropbacks with Mohamed Sanu (16 routes) and Trent Sherfield (12) heavily rotating in.

  • The 49ers are an absolute trainwreck at running back this week with JaMycal Hasty (ankle) already ruled out and Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) and Trey Sermon (concussion) very much up in the air. Trenton Cannon, Kerryon Johnson, and Jacques Patrick could all be in the mix on Sunday night if their top three RBs from last week can’t play. The Packers have been middle of the pack against the run, giving up 97.5 rushing yards per game and 4.2 YPC to RBs through two weeks.

Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies

Packers

Week 1-2 – Pace (seconds in between plays): 32.2 (27th)

Week 1-2 – Plays per game: 57 (27th)

Week 1-2 – Pass: 61.7% (16th) | Run: 38.3% (17th)

49ers

Week 1-2 – Pace: 33.4 (31st)

Week 1-2 – Plays per game: 64 (19th)

Week 1-2 – Pass: 46.8% (32nd) | Run: 53.2% (1st)

Pace Points

While this game has plenty of intrigue as the 49ers try to chase down a 3-0 start in the loaded NFC West and the Packers try to avoid 1-2, it could end up underwhelming for fantasy. Both teams are slow-paced and balanced offensively, neither of which bodes well for a shootout. This is the slowest game in adjusted combined pace on the slate by far. The good news is that the Packers are going to have to push the scoring pace as 3-point road dogs, giving Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, and Aaron Jones an amazing floor/ceiling.

(Note: We’re dealing with very small sample sizes early in the season – so I’m saving the deep dive into play-calling tendencies until Week 4.)

Huber’s Key Matchup Notes

We can clearly see residual side effects from Davante Adams not having the opportunity to work with Aaron Rodgers throughout training camp/joint practices/the preseason. Simply seeing Adams rank 21st in FP/Rt comes across as weird. Part of that is the result of being steamrolled 38-3 in Week 1. But Adams has only manufactured an 86.7 targeted passer rating. However, it will only take these seasoned vets a small number of reps before that timing is reestablished. Adams’ target share rose from 23-to-33% last week, and his 75.5 air yard/game average is going to rise in a hurry. And Adams will be in a position to find success across from Josh Norman. Norman actually handled himself remarkably well considering he’d only been on the 49ers’ roster for a week. He played a significant hand in limiting DeVonta Smith to a 2/16/0 line in Week 2. He was, however, flagged for a pair of interference penalties on Smith. Getting into the head of a rookie wideout making his second career start and significantly limiting, arguably, the top WR in the game are galaxies apart.

One of the most shocking stats of the early season is San Francisco delivering the eighth-most FPG to TEs. Sans Nick Bosa, the most outstanding defender for the 49ers is Fred Warner. It’s true that Warner devotes a chunk of his time rushing the pocket, and in run defense. And that highlights how vulnerable 2019 UDFA Azeez Al-Shaair has been in coverage on opposing TEs. I like it for Robert Tonyan.

Dolan’s Vantage Points

The 49ers are giving up the 6th-most FPG to opposing QBs at 25.9, and keep in mind that last week was exceptionally weird — Eagles QB Jalen Hurts lost a long touchdown pass to Jalen Reagor when Reagor stepped out of bounds before actually catching the ball, and somehow Philly managed to not score after a 91-yard completion to Quez Watkins. But Week 1 was also weird… because almost all of Jared Goff’s production (and there was a lot of it) came in garbage time.

Still, I trust the veteran Aaron Rodgers to take much more advantage of the 49ers’ CB woes than a youngster making his sixth career start and a younger vet making his first start with a new team. Rodgers is a strong QB1 start this week, and we have Davante Adams as the WR1. Just keep in mind the loss of LT Elgton Jenkins (ankle, doubtful) is a big loss against Nick Bosa and company.

After his 4-TD outburst last week, you’re obviously starting RB Aaron Jones. It’s pretty concerning to AJ Dillon’s potential for independent value that he didn’t manage 20 yards rushing in a three-score game last week, but it’s also possible that Jones was so hot that the Packers just didn’t feel the need to get Dillon going. Nonetheless, he’s merely a bench stash until further notice.

The only two Packer secondary receivers worth considering are TE Robert Tonyan and WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Wes outlined above why Tonyan is a viable low-end TE1 this week, and with more upside than you might think. As for MVS… he’s generated a passer rating of 0.0 when targeted this year. That’s not good. However, Week 1 was a mess for every Packer, and last week — to my eyes — Rodgers overthrew MVS for several potential long gains. We’ll see if they can get on the same page against a weak secondary.

The story this week is the 49ers’ RBs. Amazingly, after a nasty-looking concussion last week that resulted in a fumble (overturned by a questionable penalty call), Trey Sermon seems the most likely to handle the workload in this game — he practiced in full on Friday. That’s because JaMycal Hasty (ankle) is out and Elijah Mitchell (shoulder, doubtful) looks extremely iffy to play. Let’s hear from 49er GM John Lynch:

I think Sermon is FLEX-worthy this week, and recent signee Jacques Patrick could be a speculative add in deep, deep leagues.

In the passing game, you’re obviously playing Deebo Samuel, but keep in mind he’s played 34% of his snaps out of the slot this year, where the Packers have followed a recent trend around the NFL and have moved top CB Jaire Alexander inside — per SIS, Alexander has played 51.6% of his coverage snaps from the slot. So it could be a tougher draw for Deebo this week. Fantasy players have no choice but to play George Kittle despite his disappointing usage — the Packers got torched by TJ Hockenson last week and Juwan Johnson/Adam Trautman in Week 1.

Brandon Aiyuk, once again, was a distant second to Deebo in routes run among 49ers receivers in Week 2 with Samuel on the field for 28-of-34 pass plays and Aiyuk getting 20 snaps. Aiyuk is a bench hold, but not yet a start-worthy option.

The Packers have given up the 7th-most FPG to QBs thus far this year, but Jimmy Garoppolo is merely a low-end QB2.

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