Welcome to the IDP Weekend Preview. Each week we’ll take a close look at each matchup based on several factors such as roles, where offenses are giving up FP, snap counts, and tackle crews. As always, start your studs. I won’t be advising you to target no-brainers like Aaron Donald or Roquan Smith.
A “target” is a player who has a higher chance to come through than usual. An “avoid” is a player who has a lower chance to come through than usual.
Note: Hold onto your butts. We’ve added a “COVID LIST” section that can change at any minute. Please check carefully before you finalize your rosters.
Cle @ GB
Targets:
De’Vondre Campbell (LB, GB) — Campbell has one of the better matchups this week. The Browns and their rushing attack produce the 7th-most FPG to LBs this season, including 23.5 tackles per game. Campbell has 26 tackles in his last two games.
Avoids:
None of note.
Notable Injuries:
OUT
LB Ty Summers, GB - hamstring
CB Greg Newsome II, Cle - concussion
S John Johnson III, Cle - hamstring
QUESTIONABLE
DE Myles Garrett, Cle - groin
CB Denzel Ward, Cle - groin
COVID LIST
S Grant Delpit, Cle
S Ronnie Harrison, Jr., Cle
CB Troy Hill, Cle
LB Mack Wilson, Cle
DE Jadeveon Clowney, Cle
LB Jacob Phillips, Cle
DT Malik McDowell, Cle
DT Kenny Clark, GB
Ind @ Ari
Targets:
DeForest Buckner (DT, Ind) — Buckner lives in the 3-6 tackle range while posting 6.5 sacks (2 in his last three games) and is normally a 75%-85% participant. That sets him up nicely in a game with one of the highest expected snap counts this week. Add to that the Cardinals produce the 5th-most FPG to DLs this season and Buckner’s prospects are plentiful.
Khari Willis (S, Ind) — Willis has been absent or a part-time player due to injury for much of the season. But in his five full-time games, Willis has between 6 and 9 tackles in each of them. He was healthy last week and posted 9 tackles (5 solo) and is off the injury report for the third straight week, so he should be safe to roll out.
Jalen Thompson (S, Ari) — Thompson has been a top-5 DB season, posting between 6 and 10 tackles in every game since Week Two. He’ll be busy this week trying to keep Jonathan Taylor in front of him. This should be one of the most productive fantasy games on the slate, so we like Thompson’s chances to come through even more than we usually do.
Avoids:
None of note.
Notable Injuries:
OUT
S Andrew Sendejo, Ind - concussion
DE Jordan Phillips, Ari - knee
CB Rock Ya-Sin, Ind - illness
COVID LIST
LB Zaire Franklin, Ind
Det @ Atl
Targets:
Charles Harris (DE, Det) — Since Week 10, Harris has been playing 70-90% and producing about 3-6 tackles per game. He’s added 3.5 sacks, 5 TFL, and a forced fumble over his last three games. He’s heating up at the right time, as he has a great matchup this week. The Falcons and that leaky-faucet O-line produce the 4th-most FPG to DLs this season.
Avoids:
Duron Harmon (S, Atl) — With Erik Harris out for the year, Harmon and Jaylinn Hawkins have been the main safeties (with some Richie Grant sprinkled in for three-safety sets). These safeties are likely in for a slow game. The Lions are 31st in FPG to DBs and this game is expected to be the slowest on the slate. That’s double-dipped lowered opportunity. That also pertains to A.J. Terrell but his PD and INT prospects make him start-worthy in CB leagues that reward for those. There’s a good chance Jared Goff sits this one out.
Notable Injuries:
OUT
LB Josh Woods, Det - neck
CB Amani Oruwariye, Det - thumb
QUESTIONABLE
CB Avery Williams, Atl - groin
DE Michael Brockers, Det - knee
LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Det - shoulder
OLB Julian Okwara, Det - ankle
COVID LIST
OLB Emmanuel Ellerbee, ATL
DT Marlon Davidson, ATL
S Jalen Elliott, Det
S Tracy Walker, Det
S Ifeatu Melifonwu, Det
DB Bobby Price, Det
DB Corey Ballentine, Det
DB Nickell Robey-Coleman, Det
TB @ Car
Targets:
Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (OLB, TB) — Tryon-Shoyinka, Vita Vea, and Ndamukong Suh have a delicious matchup this week. The Panthers are the 3rd-best matchup for DLs, and Tampa Bay is a double-digit favorite. That’s generally a recipe for solid tackle floor and massive big-play upside. With Jason Pierre-Paul doubtful and Rakeem Nunez-Roches out, the rookie edge rusher is bound to get a ton of snaps this week. That said, I’m feeling good about all three of these DLs this week.
Avoids:
Brian Burns (DE, Car) — Burns has had 3 sacks in his last four games, which has helped mask his sudden drop in tackle production. After hovering around 3-6 tackles per game for much of the season, Burns has had 2 or fewer tackles in four of his last five games. This week, he faces a Tampa Bay O-line that surrenders less than a sack per game. They also don’t run the ball much, creating the fewest tackle chances for DLs this season. You could do a lot worse than starting Burns — who has 9 sacks on the season — but he’s got his work cut out for him.
Notable Injuries:
OUT
LB Lavonte David, TB - foot
S Mike Edwards, TB - knee
S Antoine Winfield, Jr. - foot
DOUBTFUL
OLB Jason Pierre-Paul, TB - shoulder
QUESTIONABLE
CB Richard Sherman, TB - achilles
COVID LIST
DT Derrick Brown, Car
DE Rakeem Nunez-Roches, TB
Bal @ Cin
Targets:
Germaine Pratt (LB, Cin) — Pratt posted 15 tackles (9 solo) in Week 15, filling in for Logan Wilson. He posted 9 tackles in each of his other two starts for Wilson so far. Wilson is out this week, so Pratt should be the every-down LB in line to soak up one of the week’s best matchups for LBs. Baltimore produces the 4th-most FPG to LBs even without Lamar Jackson. In what should be a fairly high-scoring and close game, Pratt should see boatloads of opportunity.
Vonn Bell (S, Cin) — Bell and Jessie Bates III face the 2nd-best offense for DB production this season. The Ravens create 30.5 tackles, 2.5 PD, and almost an INT per game to opposing secondaries, which means I also like Mike Hilton this week.
Patrick Queen (LB, Bal) — I don’t really know what to tell ya. Queen has been one of the most frustrating IDPs this season. You need 7+ tackles? My man has done it six times, including last week when he had 13. You for some odd reason want 4 or fewer tackles from your ILB? Queen’s got you covered, taking home that honor five times, including two weeks ago when had just 2. Flip-flopping from LB1 to LBWTF almost weekly, he’s on this list because of his stellar matchup. The Bengals create the 3rd-most FPG for LBs this season, including 23.8 tackles per game. So what did he do when these two teams met back in Week Seven? He had just 2 tackles. W.T. F. But, he was a 43% participant in that game, and Queen’s snaps have settled into the 85-95% range over the last three weeks. I’m not feeling great about his floor here, but his ceiling can’t be ignored.
Avoids:
None of note.
Notable Injuries:
OUT
LB Logan Wilson, Cin - shoulder
QUESTIONABLE
DT Calais Campbell, Bal - thigh
OLB Odafe Oweh, Bal - illness
DB Brandon Stephens, Bal - illness
DE Khalid Kareem, Cin - concussion
COVID LIST
CB Jimmy Smith, Bal
CB Chris Westry, Bal
OLB Justin Houston, Bal
OLB Pernell McPhee, Bal
CB Chidobe Awuzie, Cin
LB Clay Johnston, Cin
LAC @ Hou
Targets:
Linval Joseph (DT, LAC) — Joseph has been a run-stopping force all season. He’s had at least 3 tackles in every game this season, topping 5 tackles four different times. His opponent this week continues to run it a ton even though they’ve trailed for much of the season. The Texans produce the 6th-most FPG to DLs this season, and the lack of Joey Bosa should mean elevated snap counts for Joseph.
Avoids:
None of note.
Notable Injuries:
OUT
S Lonnie Johnson, Jr., Hou - quad/shoulder
QUESTIONABLE
S Derwin James, Jr. - hamstring
COVID LIST
OLB Joey Bosa, LAC
DB Tevaughn Campbell, LAC
DB Kemon Hall, LAC
LB Kamu Grugier-Hill, Hou
LB Christian Kirksey, Hou
DB A.J. Moore, Hou
DB Terrance Brooks, Hou
DB Terrance Mitchell, Hou
DE Jonathan Greenard, Hou
DE Jacob Martin, Hou
DE Derek Rivers, Hou
DE Jordan Jenkins, Hou
S Eric Murray, Hou
DE DeMarcus Walker, Hou
LAR @ Min
Targets:
Ernest Jones (LB, LAR) — Jones had another strong outing last week, posting 11 tackles (5 solo) essentially playing every snap. He’ll take that momentum into a matchup against the 6th-best opponent for LB production. The Vikings create 22 tackles for LBs this season, and Jones is about the only regular LB the Rams use.
Avoids:
None of note.
Notable Injuries:
QUESTIONABLE
DT Greg Gaines, LAR - ankle
COVID LIST
CB Jalen Ramsey, LAR
CB Robert Rochell, LAR
S Jordan Fuller, LAR
DT Sebastian Joseph-Day, LAR
OLB Von Miller, LAR
LB Troy Reeder, LAR
Buf @ NE
Targets:
Kyle Dugger (S, NE) — You know Sean McDermott wants this one badly. And with Gabriel Davis now on the COVID list and New England’s corners stingy on the outside, Buffalo’s high-volume passing attack should try to focus on slot matchups and throw across the middle of the field. That will play right into Dugger’s strengths. Buffalo creates the 6th-most FPG for DBs this season.
Avoids:
Tremaine Edmunds (LB, Buf) — Edmunds has been a steady 7-8 tackle guy, popping off twice with double-digit tackles. But the cards are stacked against him to get near that double-digit range this week. His opponent ranks 28th in FPG to LBs this season. And this game is expected to be one of the lowest output games of the week. Fewer snaps against a stingy opponent might be a combination Edmunds can’t overcome.
Notable Injuries:
QUESTIONABLE
DT Star Lotulelei, Buf - personal
DT Christian Barmore, NE - knee
LB JaWhaun Bentley, NE - ribs/ankle
S Adrian Phillips, NE - knee
COVID LIST
LB Tyrell Dodson, Buf
DE A.J. Epenesa, Buf
LB Harvey Langi, NE
LB Cameron McGrone, NE
Jax @ NYJ
Targets:
Andrew Wingard (S, Jax) — Wingard has 8 or more tackles in each of his last three games. With Rayshawn Jenkins injured, Wingard has been picking up the slack. Coming into the week, the Jets possess the 3rd-most FPG given to DBs. Now that EDGE Josh Allen is on the COVID list (and unlikely to turn it around on such short notice), Zach Wilson should have more time in the pocket to test Wingard, making a great matchup even greater.
Avoids:
None of note.
Notable Injuries:
OUT
S Elijah Riley, NYJ - concussion
COVID LIST
OLB Josh Allen, Jax
CB Michael Carter, NYJ
LB Blake Cashman, NYJ
NYG @ Phi
Targets:
None of note.
Avoids:
Jaylon Smith (LB, NYG) — Between his pre-draft nerve injury and his mysterious and sudden releases from both Dallas and Green Bay, it’s been a tumultuous road for Smith so far in the NFL. But just as mysteriously and suddenly, Smith was signed by the Giants and played last week, registering 4 tackles. But he only played 24%, so it’s hard to picture him jumping up to a full-time role this week. Even if he does, his matchup is gross. The Eagles are 31st in FPG to LBs. Look elsewhere for your LB.
Notable Injuries:
QUESTIONABLE
DE Leonard Williams, NYG - triceps
DT Austin Johnson, NYG - foot
COVID LIST
OLB Oshane Ximines, NYG
CB Aaron Robinson, NYG
CB Adoree Jackson, NYG
DB Keion Robinson, NYG
DE Ryan Kerrigan, Phi
Chi @ Sea
Targets:
Jordyn Brooks (LB, Sea) — Of course you’re starting Bobby Wagner, but Brooks also is worth firing up. Brooks out-produced Wagner last week and has been a reliable LB2 for much of the season. This week, both Seattle LBs get a top-5 matchup when they face the Bears.
Avoids:
Eddie Jackson (S, Chi) — This is assuming he gets off the COVID list. If not, it’s as big an “avoid” as you can get. What awful timing for your DB2/DB3. Jackson usually hovers around 4-6 tackles a game but has hit 8+ tackles three times in his last six games. But this week is just brutal. The Seahawks are a complete mess on offense, particularly in the passing game. Thus, they are dead last in FPG to DBs. Jackson might be closer to 3-4 tackles this week instead of pushing for double digits.
Notable Injuries:
QUESTIONABLE
CB Blessuan Austin, Sea - hip
COVID LIST
S Eddie Jackson, Chi
CB Artie Burns, Chi
DE Mario Edwards, Chi
S Duke Shellet, Chi
CB Jaylon Johnson, Chi
S Tashaun Gipson, Sr. Chi
S DeAndre Houston-Carter, Chi
DT Akiem Hicks, Chi
DE Kerry Hyder, Jr., Sea
CB D.J. Reed, Sea
Pit @ KC
Targets:
Chris Jones (DT, KC) — Jones was just activated off the COVID list and should be set to play this week. He returns to a good matchup, as the statue formerly known as Ben Roethlisberger and his shaky O-line has been a boon for DLs this season. Pittsburgh allows 1.5 sacks and 2.5 TFLs to DLs.
Avoids:
None of note.
Notable Injuries:
COVID LIST
CB Charvarius Ward, KC
LB Willie Gay, KC
CB Rashad Fenton, KC
Den @ LV
Targets:
None of note.
Avoids:
None of note.
Notable Injuries:
OUT
LB Kenny Young, Den - concussion
S Johnathan Abram, LV - shoulder
QUESTIONABLE
DT Mike Purcell, Den - thumb/neck
DE Shelby Harris, Den - ankle
DL Shamar Stephen, Den - knee
DE Dre’Mont Jones, Den - foot
LB Baron Browning, Den - illness
S Kareem Jackson, Den - back
S Caden Sterns, Den - shoulder/back
LB Denzel Perryman, LV - ankle
LB Will Compton, LV - personal
LB Divine Deablo, LV - shoulder/elbow
DT Johnathan Hankins, LV - back
COVID LIST
DB P.J. Locke, Den
DB Nate Hobbs, LV
DB Trayvon Mullen, LV
Was @ Dal
Targets:
DeMarcus Lawrence (DE, Dal) — Lawrence has been heating up since his return, posting 9 tackles, 1 sack, 5 QB hits, and 3 PD in his last three games. This week, he’ll face a Washington team that creates the 7th-most FPG to DLs. He’s got a strong tackle floor and high big-play upside this week.
Kamren Curl (S, Was) — Curl gets the #1 DB matchup this week. OC Kellen Moore’s offense has been fruitful for DBs for a few years now and this season is no different. This game is also expected to produce the most snaps, which bodes well for Curl’s tackle floor as well. Curl had 8 tackles in their meeting earlier this season.
Avoids:
None of note.
Notable Injuries:
OUT
S Landon Collins, Was - foot
S Deshazor Everett, Was - personal
CB William Jackson III, Was - calf
QUESTIONABLE
DE DeMarcus Lawrence, Dal - foot
LB Jamin Davis, Was - shoulder
COVID LIST
DT Trysten Hill, Dal
CB Jourdan Lewis, Dal
S Malik Hooker, Dal
DT Osa Odighazuwa, Dal
DT Matt Ioannidis, Was
Mia @ NO
Targets:
Pete Werner (LB, NO) — With Demario Davis going on the COVID list late in the week, there’s a good chance Werner will be taking over for him. If so, he’ll get a nice matchup this week, as the Dolphins produce the 7th-most FPG to LBs this season.
Emmanuel Ogbah (DE, Mia) — Ogbah has a cake matchup this week. Not only is he facing an offense that produces the 8th-most FPG for DLs this season, but he also gets a “fresh meat” QB in Ian Book. The Nigerian Nightmare has 7 sacks on the season and has a crazy-high number of PD (10), giving him some nice big-play upside in a matchup that is ripe for the picking.
Avoids:
None of note.
Notable Injuries:
QUESTIONABLE
DE Marcus Davenport, NO - shoulder
COVID LIST
LB Demario Davis, NO
S Duke Riley, Mia
DB Justin Coleman, Mia
S Malcolm Jenkins, NO
S Jeff Heath, NO
LB Kaden Ellis, NO
