Week 14 IDP Preview

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Week 14 IDP Preview

Welcome to the IDP Weekend Preview. Each week we’ll take a close look at each matchup based on several factors such as roles, where offenses are giving up FP, snap counts, and tackle crews. As always, start your studs. I won’t be advising you to target no-brainers like Aaron Donald or Roquan Smith.

A “target” is a player who has a higher chance to come through than usual. An “avoid” is a player who has a lower chance to come through than usual.

Teams on Bye: Indianapolis, Miami, New England, Philadelphia

Atl @ Car

Targets:

Brian Burns (DE, Car) — Burns rolls out of his bye into a stellar matchup against the Falcons. They allow the 4th-most FPG to DLs this season, and Burns had a sack and 3 tackles the last time these two teams met. Now he’s got stud CB Stephon Gilmore to help slow down Matt Ryan’s decisions. That extra beat it may take him to go through his progressions with this strong secondary increases those sack and big-play chances for Burns.

Grady Jarrett (DT, Atl) — Poor Jarrett gets moved back and forth between “avoid” and “target” fairly often. He’s just had a season of volatile matchups. This week, Jarrett faces a team that already is 2nd in FPG to DLs, but HC Matt Rhule fired his OC because they weren’t running the ball enough. That bodes well for Jarrett’s tackle floor.

Avoids:

None of note.

Notable Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

CB Fabian Moreau, Atl - hamstring

S Richie Grant, Atl - ankle

Bal @ Cle

Targets:

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB, Cle) — With Anthony Walker, Jr. now set to miss Week 14, Owusu-Koramoah will be the lead dog this week. He was already playing similar snaps as Walker after starting the season slowly — he played 84% in Week 12, racking up 12 tackles — so he should be a double-digit tackle candidate against a Ravens team that produces boatloads of FPG to all levels of the opposition. That’s mainly due to the Ravens being 3rd in number of plays run. I’m also expecting Mack Wilson to be the secondary LB over Sione Takitaki, but there’s a solid chance those two will split that spot in an ugly timeshare.

John Johnson (S, Cle) — See above. The Ravens create tons of fantasy production — they’re 3rd in FPG to DLs, LBs, and DBs — so Johnson and fellow safety Ronnie Harrison should be in line for big days. Just two weeks ago against Baltimore, Johnson and Harrison racked up 21 tackles.

Avoids:

Chuck Clark (S, Bal) — It’s already been a tough season for Clark’s fantasy value. After being a reliable DB2 for much of last season, his 2021 production can best be described as a combination of inconsistent and poor. Other than a two-week stretch where he had 19 tackles, Clark has hovered around the 3-5 tackle mark for much of the season. With four bye teams and a slew of injuries/COVID issues, the safety pool is thin. But you may want to look elsewhere for tackles, as Cleveland runs it 5th-most and produces the 5th-lowest FPG to DBs.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

CB Greg Newsome II, Cle - concussion

QUESTIONABLE

S Chuck Clark, Bal - NIR

DT Malik Jackson, Cle - knee

S Ronnie Harrison, Jr., Cle - ankle

Sea @ Hou

Targets:

Ryan Neal (S, Sea) — With Jamal Adams (shoulder) out for the year, the team will turn to Neal to fill in. Neal has been productive when Adams has missed games in the past, posting 6-9 tackles per game last season when Adams missed time. Neal doesn’t have a great matchup, as the Texans are just 28th in FPG to DBs, but I think 4-7 tackles is his range this week, making him a decent DB2/DB3.

Avoids:

None of note.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

S Jamal Adams, shoulder - out

QUESTIONABLE

DE Jonathan Greenard, Hou - foot

CB A.J. Moore, Jr., Hou - hip

S Quandre Diggs, Sea - calf

LV @ KC

Targets:

Divine Deablo (LB, LV) — Deablo has been solid in replacing the injured Nick Kwiatkoski. He leap-frogged Cory Littleton to be the secondary LB next to Denzel Perryman. But now that Perryman and Kwiatkoski are both out, Deablo should see increased playing time and production. There’s a direct correlation between snaps and tackles, and that is magnified when a defense is set up to funnel tackles to LBs. As in Minnesota, when Eric Kendricks is out, Nick Vigil becomes an LB1. Well in Las Vegas, Perryman has been one of the most productive tacklers in the league. That mantle might be getting passed to Deablo, though Littleton’s newly-increased role will play a factor in that. Either way, Deablo has LB2 value this week, and don’t be surprised if he pushes past double digits.

Avoids:

Chris Jones (DT, KC) — The last time I put Jones on this list, he had 3.5 sacks. So this might be your cue to start him if you’re superstitious. That said, by the numbers, Jones will have a harder time than usual posting solid production. The Raiders have a tough O-line and are 26th in run%. Those two factors give them the 6th-worst matchup for DLs. Need more evidence? Jones faced the Raiders in Week 10 and had 0 tackles, 0 sacks, and 2 PD.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

DE Carl Nassib, LV - knee

LB Denzel Perryman, LV - ankle

LB Nick Kwiatkoski, LV - ankle

QUESTIONABLE

CB Rashad Fenton, KC - knee

NO @ NYJ

Targets:

Malcolm Jenkins (S, NO) — After starting the season strong with between 6 and 12 tackles in five straight weeks, Jenkins cooled off to the 4-5 tackle range. He’s slipped into DB3 territory, but he’s set up this week for a bounceback game. Not only is Pete Werner (elbow) out, which should press Jenkins into more box responsibilities at times, but the Jets are the #1 opponent for DB production. They throw it more than anyone but Jacksonville, and they create tons of big plays for DBs, including 1.5 INTs, and 3.5 PD per game.

Avoids:

None of note.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

LB Pete Werner, NO - elbow

LB Kaden Ellis, NO - hamstring

CB Michael Carter, NYJ - concussion

QUESTIONABLE

DE Marcus Davenport, NO - shoulder

Jax @ Ten

Targets:

Myles Jack (LB, Jax) — Jack was on his way to an 8-10 tackle game during his last meeting with Tennessee, but got injured halfway through. One of Jack’s disappointing statistics is his solo-to-assist ratio. That’s driven largely by his home stat crew favoring the assist over the solo. This week, he plays in a more generous Tennessee stat crew against an offense that creates the 2nd-most FPG to LBs this season. Derrick Henry or not, the Titans continue to create massive production for LBs.

Avoids:

Jeffery Simmons (DT, Ten) — Simmons has been a 5-6 tackle DL lately and also has 5 sacks in his last four games. We’ve been loving his increased production, but his sledding is tough this week. The Jags are dead last in DL fantasy production. They’re finally running the ball a little more, but they’re still just 25th in run %. Simmons posted 3 tackles and a TFL a few weeks ago when they met, and I think that’s a good range for him this week as well. Keep using him, but he might not have the DL1 production this week that he’s been posting over the last month.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

LB David Long, Jr., Ten - hamstring

LB Zach Cunningham, Ten - NIR

CB Jackrabbit Jenkins, Ten - ankle

Dal @ Was

Targets:

Micah Parsons (LB, Dal) — Normally not a player who needs to be on this list, Parsons has had lowered production lately, and missed some practice this week due to a hip injury. But there are a lot of positive signs for Parsons to have a rebound game. For one, both Parsons and HC Mike McCarthy said the hip issue was minor and they were just being cautious. That’s good, because Parsons is playing in what should be the most productive matchup of the week in terms of number of plays run. Finally, Parsons should play more ILB this week, as both DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory will be in the lineup, which hasn’t happened since early September. That means Parsons will get to take advantage of a top-10 matchup for LBs, as Washington is 9th in FPG to ILBs.

Kamren Curl (S, Was) — Curl gets a stellar matchup for Week 14. The Cowboys and their potent passing attack create the 2nd-most FPG to DBs this season. As mentioned above, with this game expected to produce the most plays in a game this week, Curl’s tackle opportunity is doubly-raised.

Avoids:

None of note.

Notable Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

LB Micah Parsons, Dal - hip

DT Jonathan Allen, Was - groin

S Landon Collins, Was - foot

Det @ Den

Targets:

Baron Browning (LB, Den) — Browning has quietly taken over as the every-down LB in Denver. He moved into this role after the team lost their top three LBs, but the addition of Kenny Young via trade hasn’t affected Browning's snaps nor his production. Since taking over as a starter in Week Eight, Browning has had between 6 and 8 tackles in every full game (he was injured in Week 10 and played just 16 snaps). This week, he gets the best matchup of the week for LBs. Detroit is 1st in FPG to LBs, including 26.7 tackles per game.

Dean Marlowe (S, Det) — With Tracy Walker now on the COVID-19 list, Marlowe will be elevated to the starting SS role. He will face a Denver team that produces the 6th-most FPG to DBs, so he’ll have a solid matchup. The game is expected to be a slow-moving affair, so Marlowe has fill-in DB3 value this week.

Avoids:

Justin Simmons (S, Den) — After being a no-doubt DB1 last season, Simmons has been the epitome of boom-bust this season. He’s had six games of at least 6 tackles, and in those games, he’s pulled down 3 INTs. Those are DB1 numbers. But he’s also had five games of 3 or fewer tackles in a game. Those are DB “keep scrolling down to find him” numbers. Sadly, Simmons looks like he may be more of the latter this week. Not only are the Lions just 31st in FPG to DBs, this game is expected to be the slowest of the week (i.e. fewest snaps and fantasy opportunities).

Notable Injuries:

OUT

LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Det - shoulder

OLB Julian Okwara, Det - ankle

QUESTIONABLE

DE Shelby Harris, Den - ankle

OLB Bradley Chubb, Den - shoulder/ankle

DE Michael Brockers, Det - knee/illness

DE Nick Williams, Det - illness

OLB Charles Harris, Det - illness

NYG @ LAC

Targets:

None of note.

Avoids:

Leonard Williams (DE, NYG) — One of the more reliable DLs in the league, Williams may be in for a lonely day. The Chargers offense heavily features RB Austin Ekeler, but that is a bit of a mirage in terms of expected FPG. The Chargers are actually 27th in run %, electing instead to get the small and shifty Ekeler out in space. This is one of the reasons the Chargers are 30th in FPG to DLs. There is one bright spot if you have to use Williams. If the Chargers hold serve and build a double-digit lead, they may lean on the run late in the game more than usual. So you’ve got a chance to see Lenny Willy’s tackle floor stabilize in the 4th quarter.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

OLB Kyler Fackrell, LAC - knee

S Alohi Gilman, LAC - quadricep

CB Asante Samuel, Jr., LAC - concussion

CB Adoree Jackson, NYG - quad

QUESTIONABLE

DL Danny Shelton, NYG - calf

SF @ Cin

Targets:

Germaine Pratt (LB, Cin) — With Logan Wilson injured last week, Pratt posted 9 tackles, while playing 97%. Pratt should own the primary LB spot this week, which puts him on the LB2 radar against a run-heavy 49ers team. Also, If you’re hurting at LB4, a high-upside play this week would be Joe Bachie, who moved to the secondary LB role with Wilson out last week. Bachie also had 9 tackles with 61% usage.

Avoids:

Jessie Bates III (S, Cin) — Bates has a tough matchup this week. The 49ers own the 3rd-highest run% in the league and thus own the 30th spot in FPG to DBs. Last year, Bates was a potent run-stopper, but this year’s mid-season change in the defensive scheme has kept Bates a bit too far away from the action recently. Bates started the season with 9 tackles in three of his first four games. Since then, he’s been in the 4-6 tackle range.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

LB Logan Wilson, Cin - shoulder

DT Maurice Hurst, SF - calf

LB Dre Greenlaw, SF - groin

QUESTIONABLE

CB Chidobe Awuzie, Cin - foot

CB Emmanuel Moseley, SF - ankle

CB Dontae Johnson, SF - NIR

Buf @ TB

Targets:

Andrew Adams (S, TB) — With safeties Jordan Whitehead (ankle) out and Mike Edwards (dumbass) suspended, Adams will be the starting safety opposite Antoine Winfield. Both Adams and Winfield have a good matchup this week. In a game that is expected to be a) close and b) high-scoring, both safeties should be busy. Even in neutral matchups, Buffalo creates the 10th-most FPG to DBs this season. Adams had 7 tackles last week filling in for Whitehead.

Avoids:

Ed Oliver (DT, Buf) — Oliver has been a solid DT2 over the last three weeks, posting 9 tackles, 3 TFL, and 2 PD. But this week will be tougher than usual for him, as the Bucs rank 32nd in run % and 26th in FPG to DLs. They’re not likely to run much this week either, as this game should be a shootout (52.5 expected points). Oliver is also dealing with a chest injury.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

DT Star Lotulelei, Buf - toe

S Jordan Whitehead, TB - calf

QUESTIONABLE

DE Efe Obada, Buf - hip

DT Ed Oliver, Buf - chest

DT Vita Vea, TB - knee

DL William Gholston, TB - wrist/knee

Chi @ GB

Targets:

Krys Barnes (LB, GB) — De’Vondre Campbell is now trending toward playing, but if he doesn’t, Barnes will be thrust into the primary LB role. He’ll likely be picked on, as the Green Bay defense has been solid up front and in the secondary. The Bears own the 4th-highest rushing rate, and with Justin Fields returning as the starter, this could be a big day for Barnes.

Avoids:

Alec Ogletree (LB, Chi) — Tom Simons and I were awfully skeptical about Ogletree being the replacement for an injured and declining Danny Trevathan. After having some solid games early on, we were eating our words it seemed. But lately — even with Roquan Smith missing some time — Ogletree has been a part-time player. Last week with Smith back in the lineup, Ogletree (43%) had 1 tackle while splitting time with Joel Iyiegbuniwe (42%). Oh, and Green Bay is 31st in FPG to LBs.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

LB De'Vondre Campbell, GB - illness

LAR @ Ari

Targets:

A’Shawn Robinson (DT, LAR) — Robinson has been a tackle machine lately. After failing to cross the 50% usage threshold for all but one game through Week Eight, Robinson has been a ~60% player for the last four weeks. Those weeks have produced between 5 and 8 tackles in each of his last four games. This week, he faces a Cardinals offense that is 2nd in run% and 7th in FPG to DLs.

Avoids:

Isaiah Simmons (LB, Ari) — I’d probably still fire up Simmons if you don’t have another solid LB2/LB3 option, but he’s facing the worst team for opposing LB production. In a game where the Rams are expected to throw a lot, Simmons will need a lot of targets in coverage to come through. He’s certainly capable of that (plus his big-play upside), but it might be harder than usual this week. Simmons did have 7 tackles (4 solo) when he faced the Rams back in Week Four, so he’s not a true “sit.”

Notable Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

CB Byron Murphy, Ari - foot

OLB Terrell Lewis, LAR - back

Justin has been holding down the IDP fort for John Hansen and the crew since 2015. In addition to projections and articles, he also hosts an all-IDP podcast called “The IDP Corner,” where he is joined by his fellow FantasyPoints IDP contributor Thomas Simons, along with other special guests.

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