Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6, 3-5 ATS) at Indianapolis Colts (4-5, 6-3), 1 p.m.
Brolley’s Jaguars Stats and Trends
The Jaguars knocked off the Bills as 16-point home underdogs, which is the biggest upset of the season.
The Jaguars are 2-6 toward unders this season.
Jacksonville has covered three straight games in this series, and they won their only game of the season against the Colts last season.
Trevor Lawrence suffered an ankle injury that looked serious, but he was able to return to the game and he should be able to play this week — his rushing ability could be capped this week. He completed 15/26 passes for 118 scoreless yards (4.5 YPA) for a season-low 5.1 FP. Lawrence has topped 18+ FP just once in his last seven games. Jacksonville’s offense averaged just 3.8 yards per play against the Bills, and they’ve scored a combined 16 points in their first two games out of their bye. The Colts allowed Jets’ backup QB Mike White and Josh Johnson to combine for 412/4 passing last week.
Marvin Jones has finished with fewer than nine FP in four of his last five games after managing a season-low 21 yards against the Bills last week. The Colts are giving up the fifth-most FPG (41.4) and the most receiving TDs per game (1.7) to WRs this season.
Jamal Agnew posted double-digit FP in three straight games in Weeks 5-8, but he managed just 3/27 receiving on five targets (18% share) in a tough matchup with the Bills while playing a four-week low 54% of the snaps. Laviska Shenault is averaging 3.3/37.3 receiving on 5.3 targets per game with a touchdown in his first four games as an outside receiver with D.J. Chark out of the lineup. Three different Jets WRs posted 5+ catches last week against the Colts.
Dan Arnold has led the Jaguars in receiving yards in each of the last two weeks out of their bye. He played a four-week low of 57% of the snaps, but he posted 4/60 receiving on seven targets in a tough matchup against the Bills in Week 9. He’s seen 5+ targets in each of his first four games with the Jaguars, and he’s hit double-digit FP in three of those contests. The Colts have given up touchdowns to the likes of Geoff Swaim and Ryan Griffin in each of the last two games.
James Robinson is trending toward playing this week after sitting out last week with a heel injury. J-Rob had posted 19+ FP in four straight games before he left early in Week 8 with his injury. Carlos Hyde handled a healthy 79% of the snaps and finished with 21/67 rushing (3.2 YPC) with a six-yard catch on two targets in Jacksonville’s upset victory over the Bills. The Colts have given up just two rushing TDs and two receiving TDs to RBs this season.
Brolley’s Colts Stats and Trends
The Colts are 5-1 ATS and they’re 5-1 toward overs in their last six games.
Jonathan Taylor racked up 19/172/2 rushing and 2/28 receiving on a 69% snap share in a victory over the Jets in Week 9. The highlight of the night came on his 78-yard touchdown when he reached 22.05 mph, the fastest speed by a runner this season. Taylor has posted 19+ FP in six straight games thanks to nine TDs in that span, and he’s totaled 110+ scrimmage yards in each of those contests. The Colts are also once again phasing Marlon Mack out of the backfield, which has resulted in a 65% snap share or better in four straight games. The Jaguars are giving up just 3.5 YPC to RBs and an individual back hasn’t reached 50+ rushing yards or scored a TD against them in their last three games.
The Colts quietly have one of the league’s best offenses over the last month with 30+ points scored in four straight games (34.3 PPG), and they averaged a healthy 8.7 yards per play on their way to a dominant 45-30 victory over the Jets. Carson Wentz has accounted for multiple TD passes in six straight games and he’s posted 20+ FP in four of his last five games. The Jags forced more turnovers last week against the Bills (3) than they did in their first seven games of the season (2).
MIchael Pittman has scored in three straight games and in four of his last five contests, with five scores overall in that span. He’s scored 11+ FP in seven of his last eight games with 20+ FP in four of those contests. D.K. Metcalf posted 6/43/2 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago.
Zach Pascal is still hanging around with T.Y. Hilton (concussion) struggling to stay healthy. Pascal finished with a respectable 4/58 receiving on a team-high seven targets (23% share) against the Jets in Week 9. Pascal hasn’t reached double-digit FP since Week 2, but he has seen 6+ targets in three straight games in one of the league’s hotter offenses
Jack Doyle has scored in two consecutive games after Mo Alie-Cox scored four TDs in a four-game span in Weeks 4-7. The Jaguars haven’t allowed a touchdown to a TE in each of their last three games.
Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies
Pace (seconds in between plays): 28.1 (18th)
Plays per game: 65.5 (24th)
Pass: 64.0% (9th) | Run: 36.0% (24th)
Pace: 29.9 (27th)
Plays per game: 65.6 (23rd)
Pass: 58.6% (22nd) | Run: 41.4% (11th)
As massive 10.5-point home favorites, you’d think the Colts would come out and try to run the ball down the Jaguars throats here. You’d think. Indianapolis has been one of the most frustrating teams to analyze from a game-planning perspective this year. Just like two weeks ago when they played the Titans and HC Frank Reich decided to have Carson Wentz drop back and pass 52 times in a game that was close throughout. Or three weeks ago when Reich gave Nyheim Hines and Marlon Mack a combined 12 touches in that slopfest against the 49ers. Those 12 touches turned into 16 yards of offense. Good going!
Still, everything points to Jonathan Taylor losing his mind here because he’s been fairly reliant on good game-scripts in his young career to this point. In the 16 games where the Colts have been favored over the last two seasons, Taylor has averaged 20.1 fantasy points and 94.8 rushing yards per game as opposed to 15.3 FP and 59.1 rushing yards when they’re underdogs.
On the other hand, we should see a big spike in the Jaguars passing volume here. Through nine weeks, Jacksonville is 71.1% pass-heavy when trailing – which is the seventh-highest rate just behind the Chiefs (71.5%) and Bills (73%) for perspective. The matchup lends itself to the Jags’ throwing way more, too. The Colts defense has been far easier to throw on (8.1 yards per pass allowed, seventh-most) than run on (3.83 yards per carry allowed, fifth-fewest).
Huber’s Key Matchup Notes
I love this spot for Michael Pittman. The alignment numbers will place Pittman within the coverage of both Shaquill Griffin on the left and Tyson Campbell on the right in nearly equal amounts. But the reps across from Campbell will be the golden looks. Among 85 qualified outside corners, Campbell ranks 84th-best in YPCS (2.08), 80th in FP/CS (0.37), 68th in AY/CS (0.35), and 80th in TPR (127.5). In my individual coverage power rankings, Campbell ranks 78th out of 85 perimeter CBs. He’s allowed the highest rate of 20-or-more yards completions this season.
I also don’t think he ankle Trevor Lawrence tweaked is not going to hold him back this week. The Colts have leaked the second-most FPG to opposing offenses the last two games (115.9 to the Titans and Jets). And 26.7 of those FPG have been gifted to QBs (second-most).
Dolan’s Vantage Points
The Jaguars are fresh off an upset of a legitimate Super Bowl contender — Buffalo — but of course they managed to pull that upset without doing much in the way of fantasy. In a 9-6 snoozefest, Jaguar kicker Matthew Wright accounted for all 9 points for the Jags, while TE Dan Arnold was the only Jaguar to reach 10 FP in a PPR league. He reached exactly 10 points — 4 catches for 60 yards.
But Arnold has been a legitimate weapon for Trevor Lawrence, and might be one of two Jaguars we can have any semblance of confidence in for fantasy. Here’s Jake Tribbey from Week 10 Streamers:
“Arnold has played five games with the Jaguars. The first game (Week 4) he hadn’t had time to get acclimated to the new offense, and played just 18 snaps and earned just two targets. Since then, he’s been an outstanding fantasy commodity.
Over the Jags’ last 4 games, Arnold is tied for the team lead in targets (26), tied for 2nd on the team in routes (122), leads the team in receiving yards (219), and leads the team in YPRR (1.80). Among TEs over that timespan, Arnold’s numbers rank 3rd (tie), 6th (tie), 5th, and 10th. And he’s turned that into 10.0 FPG, a mark that ranks 13th on the year - just behind Dallas Goedert, and just ahead of Hunter Henry. And he’s had 60 or more yards in three of his last four games. He’s seeing the volume, and generating the production, of a low-end TE1.
Indianapolis is on the plus side of matchups for TEs, allowing the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing TEs over the last 5 weeks (+7.9), and allowing the 8th-highest target share to TEs (24.6%). Arnold is the top streaming TE option of Week 10, and he’s a reasonable long term hold should this usage continue.”
Arnold is obviously #2 on the Jaguars’ fantasy totem pole, behind RB James Robinson — Robinson missed Week 9’s shocking win over the Bills with a heel injury, but the injury is not serious. The expectation is that he’ll be back in Week 10 against the Colts. The Jags got replacement-level work from Carlos Hyde (21 carries, 67 yards) and took a W, but Robinson is the better player and obviously the better fantasy option.
Urban Meyer says Jaguars should have James Robinson back last week. He thought he was going to play up until this morning.— John Shipley (@_John_Shipley) November 7, 2021
Robinson is listed as questionable but Meyer expects him to play.
Anyway, it’s great that converted DB Jamal Agnew has found a home as a legitimately solid NFL receiver (one Urban Meyer called the Jags’ “best separator” just a couple weeks back), but what does it say about Marvin Jones and especially Laviska Shenault that Agnew is their best separator?
Total targets in the four games played since DJ Chark's season-ending injury:— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 8, 2021
Marvin Jones: 27
Laviska Shenault: 21
Jamal Agnew: 31
Anyway, in those four games since Chark went down, Agnew ranks the highest of those three at WR40 with 11.6 FPG. I’m not getting excited about playing any of these guys, though Agnew is the best bet to come through, then Jones. And with Lawrence coming off an ankle injury, perhaps both the floor and ceiling are lower for this trio. The Colts are without CB Xavier Rhodes this week… but that might be a good thing for them.
Hey folks… did you hear that Jaguar EDGE Josh Allen sacked, picked, and recovered a fumble off of Bills QB Josh Allen???????? (Insert sarcasm font.)
Still, I thought this one Jags fan had a funny twist on the insane factoid that everyone on earth knows about.
Colt QB Carson Wentz rebounded from a horrific Week 8 against the Titans by picking apart the Jets in Week 9, now throwing for multiple TDs in six consecutive games. Say what you want about Wentz, but he’s played overall pretty well this season, and despite what they did to Allen last week, the Jags don’t necessarily qualify as a “good” defense. Wentz is a solid option this week if you need one — and he’s even willing to miss his child’s birth.
Colts QB Carson Wentz says his wife is due with their second child any day now.— Stephen Holder (@HolderStephen) November 10, 2021
"I could get a call at any time," he said.
However, Wentz says if it comes down to a conflict between Sunday's game, "I'm playing."
He and his wife have already had the discussion, he said.
Michael Pittman is turning in one of the most quietly consistent fantasy seasons for a receiver I can remember…
Over his last eight games, Pittman has finished as a top-12 scoring WR four times and has put up at least 11.9 FP in 7-of-8.
Pittman, Mike Williams, and CeeDee Lamb are all tied as the WR15 in FPG.
Pittman is a borderline WR1 by the numbers.
Someone who isn’t a “borderline” #1? RB Jonathan Taylor. More from Graham on who is likely the RB1 in fantasy right now (Marlon Mack was a healthy scratch last week):
- Over the last month, Jonathan Taylor is averaging 7.4 yards per carry and 10.7 yards per reception.
- Since Week 6, Taylor is the No. 1 overall scoring player in fantasy regardless of position with 26 FPG.
- It only took Frank Reich half of the season to figure it out, but good things happen when you don’t give Marlon Mack 5-6 meaningless touches per game and instead give those opportunities to Taylor.
The Jags have been pretty stout against opposing RBs, but give up a lot of TDs. And Taylor is now scoring a lot of TDs.