The Bottom Line: Week 16 DK & FD GPP Plays

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The Bottom Line: Week 16 DK & FD GPP Plays

Take note: Use the provided projected ownership percentages to determine whether each GPP option listed is best suited to either small- (3-20 Entry Max) or large-field formats (150).

For more in depth analysis and matchup details, head over to Advanced Matchups.

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford, LAR at MIN ($6.7K DK | $7.9K FD)

Projected Ownership:

  • DraftKings: 13-16%

  • FanDuel: 12-15%

Week 14 Opponent: Seattle Seahawks

Results: 23-of-30, 287 passing yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 23.5 FPs

Week 15 Opponent: Minnesota Vikings

Schemes: 6th-highest rate of Cover 2, 11th-highest of Cover 4, 6th-highest of Cover 6

Allowances:

  • The most FPG to offenses the last 4 weeks (99.9)

  • 3rd-most FPG to QBs (18.9)

  • 4th-most passing YPG (252.1)

  • 7th-most YPA (7.1)

  • 6th-highest completion rate on 20-plus throws (16.1%)

History of Scheme Success:

  • vs. Cover 2 (last 3 years):

  • The most FP/Db (0.42)

  • vs. Cover 4 (last 3 years):

  • 5th-most FP/Db (0.39)

  • vs. Cover 6 (last 3 years):

  • The most FP/Db (0.50)

Game Type: CASH/Single-Entry (SE)

The Bottom Line: A complete smash spot for Stafford with Minnesota prepared to throw everything at the QB that he’s obliterated at league-leading metrics.

Drew Lock, DEN at LV ($5.1K DK | $6.6K FD)

Projected Ownership:

  • DraftKings: 2-4%
  • FanDuel: 1-3%

Week 15 Opponent: Las Vegas Raiders

Schemes: The highest rate of Cover 3

Allowances:

  • 6th-most FPG to offenses (93.1)

  • 4th-most FPG to QBs the last 4 weeks (16.8)

  • 6th-highest completion rate (68%)

Scheme History of Success:

  • vs. Cover 3 (last 3 years):

  • On 22% of dropbacks, generated 31% of passing yardage, and 30% of his total TDs

  • AY/Att spikes by 20%

  • Passer rating increases by 16%

  • 7 TDs vs. 3 INTs

Other:

  • Taysom Hill (69%) is the only QB with a greater improvement to his FP/Db when facing Cover 3 than Lock (43%)

Game Type: GPP

The Bottom Line: In addition to his cannon for a right arm, the reason Lock garnered NFL interest is due to his utter dominance of Cover 3

Favorite Alternatives

Tyler Huntley, BAL at CIN ($6.0K DK | $7.5K FD | ExpOwn: 8-12% | Game: BOTH)

Russell Wilson, SEA vs. CHI ($6.1K DK | $7.5K FD | ExpOwn: 1-3% | Game: GPP)

Joe Burrow, CIN vs. BAL ($5.9K DK | $7.1K FD | ExpOwn: 2-5% | Game: GPP)

Running Backs

Ronald Jones II, TB at CAR ($5.1K DK | $5.4K FD)

Projected Ownership:

  • DraftKings: 27-30%
  • FanDuel: 27-30%

Week 14 Opponent: New Orleans Saints

Results: 8/63/0, 2/8/0 receiving, 9.1 FPs

Week 15 Opponent: Carolina Panthers

Allowances:

  • 13th-most rushing YPG (115.6)

  • 15th-most TDs/game (0.86)

  • 10th-most FPG to RBs last 4 weeks (23.8)

  • 5th-most FPG on the ground to RBs last 4 weeks (18.0)

  • 4th-most red zone (RZ) touches/game to RBs last 4 weeks (6.33)

  • 10th-most RZ targets/game to RBs last 4 weeks (1.0)

Game Type: CASH/SE

The Bottom Line: Jones is just as dangerous as Leonard Fournette as a short-yardage and goal-to-go (GTG) back. And the Panthers’ defense has begun to unravel in recent weeks

James Robinson, JAX at NYJ ($5.9K DK | $8.2K FD)

Projected Ownership:

  • DraftKings: 15-18%
  • FanDuel: 7-10%

Week 14 Opponent: Houston Texans

Results: 18/75/1 rushing, 3/13/0 receiving, 17.8 FPs

Week 15 Opponent: New York Jets

Allowances:

  • 7.43 RZ touches/game (the most)

  • 3.29 GTG carries/game (the most)

  • 20.7 FPG on the ground (the most)

  • 34.8 overall FPG (the most – 16% more than any other team)

Game Type: CASH/SE (DK), BOTH (FD)

The Bottom Line: If Duke Johnson Jr. can score 28.7 FPs against New York, Robinson could reasonably exceed 30 if Jacksonville can figure out how to stay out in front of the Jets

Favorite Alternatives

Alexander Mattison, MIN vs. LAR ($6.8K DK | $5.5K FD | ExpOwn: 30-35% | Game: CASH/SE)

Justin Jackson, LAC at HOU ($4.2K DK | $5.4K FD | ExpOwn: 23-27% | Game: CASH/SE)

Darrel Williams, KC vs. PIT ($4.6K DK | $5.7K FD | ExpOwn: <1% | Game: GPP)

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp, LAR at MIN ($9.1K DK | $9.8K FD)

Projected Ownership:

  • DraftKings: 35-38%
  • FanDuel: 39-42%

Week 14 Opponent: Seattle Seahawks

Results: 13/123/1 on 15 targets, 31.3 FPs

Week 15 Opponent: Minnesota Vikings

Schemes: 6th-highest rate of Cover 2, 11th-highest of Cover 4, 6th-highest of Cover 6

Allowances:

  • The most FPG to offenses the last 4 weeks (99.9)
  • The most FPG to WRs (41.7)
  • The most RZ touches/game (2.29)

Individual Matchup: Mackensie Alexander

Averett’s Coverage Metrics: 1.34 YPCS (5th-most), 0.29 FP/CS (8th-most), 110.1 TPR (4th-highest)

Game Type: CASH/SE

The Bottom Line: Even with WR1 pricing in each of his last 8 games, Kupp has at least covered 93% of his floor in 71% of his games… none of the other WRs with top-10 pricing have managed to hit at 93% or above value in at least half of their games

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET at ATL ($5.6K DK | $6.5K FD)

Projected Ownership:

  • DraftKings: 6-9%
  • FanDuel: 1-3%

Week 14 Opponent: Arizona Cardinals

Results: 8/90/1 on 11 targets, 23.5 FPs

Week 15 Opponent: Atlanta Falcons

Allowances:

  • 9th-most passing YPG (246.6)

  • 4th-highest completion rate (69%)

  • 8th-most YPA (7.02)

  • 4th-highest passing first down rate (37.6%)

  • 4th-most FPG to WRs (38.5)

  • 5th-most red zone touches/game (1.93)

Individual Matchup: Richie Grant

Coverage Metrics: 1.84 YPCS (Unqualified), 0.53 FP/CS (Unqualified), 0.14 AY/CS (Unqualified), 146.2 TPR (Unqualified)

Game Type: GPP

The Bottom Line: Amon-Ra has simply been one of the hottest WRs in the NFL over the last three weeks and one of my favorite GPP wideouts (all sizes) of Week 16

Tyler Lockett, SEA vs. CHI ($6.7K DK | $7.3K FD)

Projected Ownership:

  • DraftKings: 2-5%
  • FanDuel: 2-5%

Week 15 Opponent: Chicago Bears

Scheme: 7th-highest rate of Cover 1 and 3rd-highest rate of Cover 2

Allowances:

  • 10th-highest completion rate (67%)

  • 11th-most YPA (6.89)

  • 11th-highest completion rate on 40-plus throws (2.86%)

  • 9th-highest passing first down rate (36.2%)

  • 4th-most FP/CS when defending play action (0.44)

  • 4th-highest TPR when defending play action (125.4)

  • The most TDs/game to WRs (1.36)

  • 9th-most FPG to WRs (36.5)

Individual Matchup: Artie Burns

Coverage Metrics: 1.84 YPCS (Unqualified), 0.40 FP/CS (Unqualified), 0.87 AY/CS (Unqualified), and a 117.6 TPR (Unqualified)

Game Type: GPP

The Bottom Line: Both Lockett and Burns were just activated off the COVID list after missing Week 15 and I love Lockett’s upside this week toward fueling a big outing for Russell Wilson

Favorite Alternatives

Antonio Brown, TB at CAR ($4.9K DK | $7.0K FD | ExpOwn: 19-24% | Game: CASH/SE)

Russell Gage, ATL vs. DET ($5.9K DK | $6.7K FD | ExpOwn: 5-9% | Game: BOTH)

Byron Pringle, KC vs. PIT ($3.3K DK | $5.2K FD | ExpOwn: <1% | Game: GPP)

Braxton Berrios, NYJ vs. JAX ($3.5K DK | $5.3K FD | ExpOwn: <1% | Game: GPP)

Tight Ends

Dallas Goedert, PHI vs. NYG ($5.1K DK | $5.9K FD)

Projected Ownership:

  • DraftKings: 14-17%
  • FanDuel: 14-17%

Week 14 Opponent: New York Jets

Results: 6/105/2 on 6 targets, 28.5 FPs

Week 15 Opponent: New York Giants

Schemes: 4th-highest rate of Cover 3 and 10th-highest of Cover 4

Scheme History:

  • vs. Cover 3 (last 3 years):

  • 7th-most FP/Rt (0.43)

  • vs. Cover 4 (last 3 years):

  • 8th-most FP/Rt (0.36)

Game Type: CASH/SE

The Bottom Line: Goedert is the hottest TE in the league, an absolute staple of Cash/SE lineups this week

Noah Fant, DEN at LV ($4.4K DK | $5.6K FD)

Projected Ownership:

  • DraftKings: 1-3%
  • FanDuel: 1-3%

Week 14 Opponent: Cincinnati Bengals

Results: 5/57/0 on 6 targets, 10.7 FPs

Week 15 Opponent: Las Vegas Raiders

Schemes: The highest rate of Cover 3

Allowances:

  • 6th-highest completion rate (68%)

  • 6th-most FPG to offenses (93.1)

  • 4th-most FPG to TEs (16.7)

  • 3rd-most TDs/game to TEs (0.71)

Scheme History (last 3 seasons):

  • vs. Cover 3:

  • 6th-most FP/Rt (0.44)

  • 10th-most YPRR (1.99)

  • Drawing 25% of the targets (5th-most)

  • On 26% of his career routes, tracked down 35% of catches, 35% of yardage, and 33% of TDs

Game Type: GPP

The Bottom Line: As with his starting QB this week, Drew Lock, the Week 16 opportunity for Fant could not be more perfectly suited

Favorite Alternatives

Rob Gronkowski, TB at CAR ($6.2K DK | $6.7K FD | ExpOwn: 13-17% | Game: CASH/SE)

Mark Andrews, BAL at CIN ($7.0K DK | $8.0K FD | ExpOwn: 9-12% | Game: CASH/SE)

Albert Okwuegbunam, DEN at LV ($3.1K DK | $4.9K FD | ExpOwn: <1% | Game: GPP)

Defense/Special Teams

Seattle Seahawks, SEA vs. CHI (3.0K DK | $4.5K FD)

Projected Ownership (Game Type):

  • DraftKings: 7-10% (CASH/SE)
  • FanDuel: 7-10% (CASH/SE)

Buffalo Bills, BUF at NE ($3.2K DK | $4.0K FD)

Projected Ownership (Game Type):

  • DraftKings: Less than 1% (GPP)
  • FanDuel: Less than 1% (GPP)

Favorite Alternatives

Los Angeles Chargers, LAC at ($3.4K DK | $4.8K FD | ExpOwn: 15-18% | Game: CASH/SE)

Kansas City Chiefs, KC vs. PIT ($3.5K DK | $4.3K FD | ExpOwn: 2-5% | Game: GPP)

With a dedicated focus on studying game film and a faithful commitment to metrics & analytics, Huber’s specialties include DFS (college and NFL), Devy & Dynasty formats, and second-to-none fantasy analysis of high school prospects.

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