Paul Kelly's Wild Card Props

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Paul Kelly's Wild Card Props

Player Props Record: 75-47 (61%) Last Week: 2-2 (50%)

We wrap up the 2021 regular season with a rock solid 61% winning percentage and I can’t help but think that without a couple of unlucky bounces we could have done even better. Let’s see if we can build on our strong season here in the playoffs.

Here’s some background on the process I use to find the props featured in this article. Looking to get an edge over the sportsbooks, a couple of years ago I started comparing each of John Hansen’s player projections to the player props being offered by the books. I looked for the largest discrepancies between John’s numbers and the books’ numbers to identify betting opportunities. I’ve developed a good feel and a baseline for what constitutes a “significant” discrepancy between the projections and the props and I’ve been betting accordingly – shopping the various books for the most favorable odds of course.

Here’s a look at the player prop discrepancies I like most for Super Wild Card Weekend followed by a list of all of the significant discrepancies for the week.

Byron Pringle vs. PIT
REC YARDSPROPDISCREPODDSSITE
PRINGLEOVER 29.518.5-110FD

Pringle has gone over this number in three straight games including a huge performance against Pittsburgh in Week 16. All we need is 30 yards to cash in here and the Fantasy Points projection is 58 yards.

Tyler Boyd vs. LV
REC YARDSPROPDISCREPODDSSITE
BOYDOVER 40.516.5-110FD

Boyd has been on a mini roll of late going over this number in four of his last five. He led the Bengals in targets, catches and yards in this matchup back in Week 11 so we know he can win this prop.

Cooper Kupp vs. ARI
RECEPTIONSPROPDISCREPODDSSITE
KUPPOVER 7.51.5-140MGM

Kupp has gone over 7 catches in four of his last six including a 13-catch game against the Cardinals in Week 14. His two highest target totals of the season (13,15) came against the Cardinals so there’s no reason to shy away from him here.

Deebo Samuel @ DAL
TOTAL YARDSPROPDISCREPODDSSITE
D. SAMUELOVER 96.523.5-114FD

We have Deebo projected for 120 total yards here on the site. He’s gone over this number in two of his last three and I'll trust Kyle Shanahan to get the ball into his hands a lot in the team's most important game of the season.

Here’s the full list of statistically significant player prop discrepancies for Super Wild Card Weekend. Happy Wagering!

PLAYERPROPLINEDISCREPODDSSITE
GAROPPOLOPASS ATTSOVER 31.54.5102FD
MAHOMESPASS ATTSUNDER 37.54.5-120MGM
MAHOMESCOMPLETIONSUNDER 25.54.5-130DK
MICHELRUSH YDSOVER 56.519.5-110DK
AKERSRUSH YDSUNDER 32.519.5-114FD
D. SMITHREC YDSOVER 43.519.5-110FD
JEFFERSONREC YDSOVER 37.519.5-110FD
PERRIMANREC YDSOVER 36.518.5-105CAESARS
A.J. GREENREC YDSOVER 42.518.5-110FD
PRINGLEREC YDSOVER 29.518.5-110FD
Q. WATKINSREC YDSOVER 25.518.5-110FD
FREIERMUTHREC YDSOVER 30.516.5-105DK
AIYUKREC YDSOVER 48.516.5-110FD
BOYDREC YDSOVER 40.516.5-110FD
B. EDWARDSREC YDSOVER 22.515.5110CAESARS
FOURNETTEREC YDSUNDER 32.515.5-110FD
CHASEREC YDSOVER 70.515.5-110FD
FOURNETTERECEPTIONSUNDER 5.52.5-130MGM
KUPPRECEPTIONSOVER 7.51.5-140MGM
HIGGINSRECEPTIONSUNDER 5.51.5-149CAESARS
MICHELTOTAL YARDSOVER 68.523.5-114FD
D. SAMUELTOTAL YARDSOVER 96.523.5-114FD

Paul is an award winning radio programmer and air talent whose broadcasting career started in 1994. He's been a host on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio since 2010, frequently working with Founder John Hansen.

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