2021 Player Props Record: 75-47 (61.5%)
2022 Player Props Record: 85-68 (55.6%)
2023 Player Props Record: 79-59 (57.2%)
2024 Player Props Record: 70-50 (58.3%)
2025 Player Props Record: 23-8 (74.2%)
Each week in this space, you’ll get my recommended discrepancy-based player prop bets and “anytime” touchdown scorer bets. Week 4 was our best week so far, going 6-1 on player props. We were just three Baker Mayfield rushing yards away from a perfect 7-0 week. We also went 7-4 on TDs, netting us +4.7 units. There are not as many significant discrepancies on the board for Week 5, so the number of recommended plays is lower this week.
Before we get to this week’s recommended plays, here’s some background on the process I use to find the props featured in this article. Looking to get an edge over the sportsbooks, a handful of years ago, I started manually comparing each of John Hansen’s player projections to the player props offered by the books. I looked for the largest discrepancies between John’s numbers and the books’ numbers to identify betting opportunities. In the old days, I had to look up each prop myself.
Now, our prop finder tool does that hard work for me. I use the tool to find the biggest discrepancies, and then I decide which props I like best – shopping the various books for the most favorable odds, of course. I’ve developed a good feel and a baseline for what constitutes a “significant” discrepancy between the projections and the props, and I’ve been betting accordingly.
Best Bets
Here are my recommended “discrepancy” plays of the week, followed by a list of the most significant discrepancies I considered for this article:
