2021 Player Props Record: 75-47 (61.5%)
2022 Player Props Record: 85-68 (55.6%)
2023 Player Props Record: 79-59 (57.2%)
2024 Player Props Record: 70-50 (58.3%)
2025 Player Props Record: 13-4 (76.5%)
Each week in this space, you’ll get my recommended discrepancy-based player prop bets and “anytime” touchdown scorer bets. We’re off to a great start this season with the discrepancies and we also had a big +3.15 unit week on the TD props in Week 2.
Before we get to this week’s recommended plays, here’s some background on the process I use to find the props featured in this article. Looking to get an edge over the sportsbooks, a handful of years ago, I started manually comparing each of John Hansen’s player projections to the player props offered by the books. I looked for the largest discrepancies between John’s numbers and the books’ numbers to identify betting opportunities. In the old days, I had to look up each prop myself.
Now, our prop finder tool does that hard work for me. I use the tool to find the biggest discrepancies, and then I decide which props I like best – shopping the various books for the most favorable odds, of course. I’ve developed a good feel and a baseline for what constitutes a “significant” discrepancy between the projections and the props, and I’ve been betting accordingly.
Best Bets
Here are my recommended “discrepancy” plays of the week followed by a list of the most significant discrepancies I considered for this article:
