Another frustrating week last week with some near-hits on some picks. But I’m hanging around .500 and still hoping to get hot and finish the season well above that mark.
Last week’s record: 10-8
Season record: 79-82
Matt Ryan (Atl, vs. LV) UNDER 299.5 passing yards on DK – Ryan has been bad without Julio Jones, who is not expected to play. He’s thrown for just 1 TD with 4 INTs and a poor 6.5 YPA average. To hit 300 yards at that YPA, he’ll have to throw it 46 times, which is unlikely against the Raiders, who love to milk the clock with their running game.
Derrick Henry (Ten, at Ind) OVER 85.5 rushing yards on William Hill – The number is 87.5 on DK, which is fine. But this is the official pick at 85.5 yards. The Colts won’t have impressive LB Bobby Okereke, but more importantly, they’ll be without stud DE/DT DeForrest Buckner, and they also won’t have starting DE Denico Autry, so they won’t be their usual stout self. The Colts kept Henry out of the end zone two weeks ago, but he ran very well in the second half against them when they were worn down, rushing for 5, 5, 9, 1, 3, 9, 12, 6, and 11 yards in the second half. I think he’ll run like that for 3-4 quarters this week, as opposed to two.
Nick Chubb (Cle, at Jax) OVER 89.5 rushing yards on FanDuel – The Jaguars are giving up the eight-most FP per carry, and when looking at production given up to RBs in just the running game, they’re giving up the fourth-most FPG to RBs. The Jags have also been vulnerable to outside runs, the staple of the Browns’ rushing attack. So barring an injury, Chubb is getting to this number as they run it 30+ times with him and Kareem Hunt, who is actually struggling running the ball.
Michael Pittman (Ind, v. Ten) OVER 52.5 receiving yards on BETMGM – The rookie has 55+ receiving yards in three straight and he wasn’t even that involved last week. He had a big game two weeks ago in this matchup with 7 catches for 100+ and Philip Rivers is playing very well now and is usually looking for Pittman often. The Titans still don’t have CB Adoree Jackson, and their outside corners are very beatable. The Colts will have to lean on the pass more with Jonathan Taylor out, too.
Wayne Gallman (NYG, at Cin) OVER 56.5 rushing yards on DK – Gallman’s had some tough matchups in his last 3-4 games, yet he’s run well and the OL seems to have turned a corner, possibly due to firing their OL coach. With Brandon Allen starting for the Bengals, I have to think the Giants will be in control, since they are clearly the better team. Gallman will give up some carries to others, but he’s the only RB with a chance to return next year, so they should evaluate him by giving him 15+ carries. The Bengals have been bad against the run all year.
Cam Newton (NE, vs.Ari) OVER 220.5 passing yards on BETMGM – He’s come a long way as a passer, and he actually has three decent WRs to throw to now with N’Keal Harry back. Cam may have had some Covid-related issues a few weeks ago that made him look worse than he really is, and now that he’s better he looks more comfortable. I do think he will run more this week, but he should have to pass it 30+ times as well.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC, at TB) OVER 39.5 rushing yards on FanDuel – This is a sneaky one, since the Bucs run defense has been so good. I’m banking here on the Chiefs having a lead in the fourth quarter, and if they do they can do more in the running game than the Rams did last week with a lead. If CEH can pop off 1-2 longer runs later in the game, he will hit this.
Christian Kirk (Ari, at NE) OVER 56.5 receiving yards on DK – He’s cooled off a bit, but he’s still playing very well and is averaging 7.0 targets and 4.5 catches per game over his last four. With DeAndre Hopkins often covered by Stephon Gilmore plus no Larry Fitzgerald, it sets up well for Kirk to have a pretty big game and eclipse this total.
Corey Davis (Ten, at Ind OVER 52.5 receiving yards on DK – He’s been consistently good and had 6/57 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago, which should have been at least 7/70 as they pulled Ryan Tannehill out in garbage time with 4 minutes to go, and Davis was the guy that week. They play a lot of zone, which is good for Davis, so this one looks pretty easy.
Curtis Samuel (Car, at Min OVER 49.5 receiving yards on DK – The Vikings have been bad covering the slot all season, and Teddy Bridgewater should play well in his revenge game and lean on Samuel when he’s in trouble and on third down, as he has all season. The Vikes have allowed the second-most FPG to slot receivers.