Supermodel Tyra Banks has amassed $95M in earnings throughout her 30-year career.
Similarly, I have a model. It’s super – a true thing of beauty. And, while it hasn’t earned $95M, it has made me quite a bit of money over the years.
That model is the DFS SuperModel. Each week it will highlight the top-25 most mispriced players on DraftKings and FanDuel. While I can’t tell you what exactly goes into the DFS SuperModel, I can tell you what does not go into it – namely, our projections and rankings. For the most part, you should be deferring to those – primarily the FPTS/$ column you’ll find here – or use both together.
That’s what I’ll be doing in this article, using both resources to help me highlight the top main slate DFS Value Plays in any given week. Here’s Week 1:
Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Football Team (vs. PHI)
DK: +$937, 3.38X / FD: +$1,425, 2.61X
By just about every measure, Gibson is glaringly the top value on both sites. He’s a must-play in cash, and the only reason you’d fade him in tournaments is because of ownership concerns.
Gibson was one of our primary targets throughout a large portion of the offseason, who then catapulted up our rankings following the release of Derrius Guice, and then again after the release of Adrian Peterson, and then again after this series of tweets from Josina Anderson [1,2,3,4]. Basically, the biggest boom-or-bust player in dynasty rookie drafts looks far more boom than bust. In fact, Gibson – perhaps the closest thing to David Johnson since 2016 David Johnson – is looking like a potential bell cow now paired with the offensive playcaller who oversaw Christian McCaffrey’s historic 1,000/1,000 season.
While invoking the names of McCaffrey and Johnson (the 2016 version) is borderline-sacrilege, and nowhere near the rookie’s Week 1 expectation, he’s still basically mispriced by at least $1,000+ on both sites. He’s being drafted as a fringe RB2 in PPR leagues, but he ranks outside of the top-50 running backs in salary on both sites.
Hayden Hurst, TE, Atlanta Falcons (vs. SEA)
DK: +$125, 3.06X / FD: +$612, 2.01X
Although I might have been the lone detractor at times, no site was higher on Hurst this offseason than us. He ranked sixth in our season-long projections, so of course we also like him this week as only the 10th- and 12th-highest-priced TE on the slate. But he also ranked quite highly in my model, which doesn’t take our projections into account. And of course, we especially like him in this particular matchup – against a Seahawks defense that gave up the second-most FPG to opposing TEs last year. He’s a lock-button play on FanDuel and probably the best play at the position on DraftKings.
Desean Jackson, WR, Philadelphia Eagles (@ WAS)
DK: +$645, 2.92X / FD: +$838, 2.15X
Very little has changed from where we were exactly one year ago. Jackson is egregiously mispriced. He’s the team’s clear WR1. He draws an A+ cornerback matchup against Washington’s porous secondary. And I’m all in. What happened last time? Jackson caught eight balls for 154 yards and two scores. What happens this time? I don’t know, but I’m not going to wait to find out – he’s going to be on all of my lineups.
And, to clarify… If Jalen Reagor sits out, all the more reason to jam Jackson into your lineups. If Reagor plays, even better, we’ll get Jackson at lower ownership.
Within $500 of minimum price on both sites, it’s hard to argue against Jacksonville’s only two healthy running backs as glaring values. That said neither are must-plays on Gibson’s level. Rookie WR Laviska Shenault averaged 3.5 rushing fantasy points per game over his final two season at Colorado, and will likely eat into backfield work. Thompson is the better play of the two (as 8.0-point underdogs, gamescript lends itself more towards the scatback), but he’s still not very exciting. It’s been nearly two years since the last time he’s reached even 15.0 fantasy points, and he averages just 7.9 fantasy points per game over that span (with the majority of those games being losses with ideal game script).
Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers (@ MIN)
DK: +$1,016, 2.70X / FD: +$710, 2.03X
Adams isn’t cheap, but he is a value. By both my model and our projections, he’s one of the top-five WR values on both sites. Adams offers a sky-high ceiling – up against a porous Vikings secondary that ranked bottom-three against outside WRs and bottom-seven against opposing WR1s last year – as well as an unrivaled floor. Adams averages 20.5 FPG across his last 35 games, reaching at least 16.0 fantasy points in 86% of these games. Those stats rank (respectively) second (behind Michael Thomas’ 21.3) and first (well ahead of Thomas’ 69%). If you’re paying up at WR, Adams is going to be your best option.
Cam Newton, QB, New England Patriots (vs. MIA)
DK: +$176, 2.97X / FD: +$440, 2.34X
It’s hard to call Newton a value when (in actuality) no QB stood out, but I did think it was surprising my model had Newton as the top QB value on both sites. It’s a surprise to me because I was only viewing him as a high-upside GPP play and not a true value at cost. (And also because he’s significantly over-priced as per our projections.) To me, Newton is looking like the ultimate boom-or-bust GPP play.
Is he healthy? Will he run? What type of offense will this be? Does New England have any viable passing game weapons beyond Julian Edelman? There’s a lot of questions we’re asking today that we won’t get our answer to until the game is played. But I will say, I do think Newton runs quite a bit in this contest. That is a vulnerability of New England’s man-heavy defense which has its defensive backs turn their backs to the opposing quarterback. Since 2011 opposing quarterbacks average +6.0 more FPG when rushing five or more times against New England. Newton isn’t playing New England, but he is playing just about the same defense, against Belichick disciple and former Patriots DC Brian Flores. And who knows that defense’s strengths and weaknesses better than Belichick?