College Football player props are one of the most beatable emerging markets in the betting and fantasy landscape. The problem? Many major outlets offer only a limited supply of options, and those become available late in the week. One alternative is PrizePicks, a fantasy site and app that allows you to construct a card of anywhere between 2-5 props. Each week I’ll be providing some of my favorite plays for college football.
Note: Be sure to check the subscriber Discord for plays, as I will post there first in order to get ahead of line movement before I have time to type up an article.
YTD Article Plays Record: 4-0
YTD Discord Plays Record: 9-1
QB JT Daniels, WVU - UNDER -2.5 Rushing Yards
Yes, for this prop to hit, we need JT Daniels to have -3 rushing yards or less. In college football, sacks count against the quarterback’s rushing yards in the box score — much different than in the NFL, and a critical piece of information to keep in mind when playing the prop market. Daniels has -244 rushing yards in 21 career games, good for -11.6 yards per game. He’s gone under mark in 17 of 21 times in his career and will be facing a fearsome Pitt defensive line. It could only take one sack.
RB Israel Abanikanda, PITT - OVER 11.0 Fantasy Points & OVER 52.5 Rushing Yards
Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi has not minced words about what he plans to do offensively — run the damn ball! He had a falling out with offensive coordinator Mark Whipple after a record-breaking year offensively because he wanted to make a point that they weren’t playing good, old-fashioned football. Well, that’s exactly the style of play he’ll revert to this season and that’s good news for the talented Abanikanda. I like his fantasy points prop the most because he catches a lot of passes and PrizePicks is PPR scoring, but his rushing yards prop is also way too low.
WR Cedric Tillman, TENN - OVER 90.5 Receiving Yards
WR Jalin Hyatt, TENN - OVER 40.5 Receiving Yards & OVER 10.0 Fantasy Points
Tennessee has one of the best offenses in the country and will be facing an overmatched Ball State defense. Coach Josh Heupel already said that the Volunteers don’t plan on slowing down whatsoever this season and will continue to apply pressure. That’s great news for fantasy players. Tillman had over 100 yards in each of his last four games to end 2022 and is in for a prolific year. Hyatt will fill the starting slot role vacated by Velus Jones Jr. and had a great fall camp. He’s too fast for the Cardinals to cover.
WR Marvin Harrison, OSU - OVER 80.5 Receiving Yards
The Ohio State Buckeyes will have the best offense in the country this year and Harrison will be a huge part of that. He’s a tall freak of nature who is locked and loaded into a starting outside WR position for CJ Stroud — an extremely valuable fantasy position. We don’t have to worry about Harrison being pulled early in this one against a tough Notre Dame team, so he should play all game. The Buckeyes had three different WRs average greater than 85 receiving yards per game a year ago and two of them are now playing in the NFL.
TE Michael Mayer, ND - OVER 5.5 Receptions
The Fighting Irish are extremely, extremely thin at the WR position and will lean on Mayer even more in the opener against Ohio State than they normally do. Considering he averaged 5.9 receptions per game last year, we would simply need an average game from him here. With a first-time quarterback and a WR room that is embarrassingly thin and unproven (spoken from a Notre Dame fan), Mayer will be peppered with targets throughout. I don’t really understand how they plan to move the ball through the air otherwise.
WR Ronnie Bell, MICH - UNDER 19.0 Fantasy Points
Bell is a very talented receiver, but this pricing is way off. Michigan has no incentive to throw the ball plenty in this one once they grab a big lead early against Colorado State. Bell is coming off an injury and expecting 20+ fantasy points per game from him is unreasonable in this offense.
WR Jaden Bray, OKS - OVER 50.5 Receiving Yards
Oklahoma State’s WR1 is an extremely valuable role, routinely going for over 1,000 yards and 10 TDs. That role is up for grabs now that Tay Martin is in the NFL. Bray is not a lock to be the WR1, but he’s gotten a lot of praise from the coaching staff and will be in the outside role that typically pops off in Gundy’s offense. Brennan Presley is the team’s leading returning receiver, but he plays in the slot and doesn’t profile as Gundy’s typical go-to guy. If Bray is the answer that I think he might be, there’s a strong chance this is the last time we see his receiving yards prop below 75 yards, if not higher.
WR Quentin Johnston, TCU - OVER 17.5 Fantasy Points & OVER 83.5 Receiving Yards
Johnston is an athletic freak who will be playing on Sundays very soon. He’s been held back by bad quarterback play and a bad offensive system but has somehow still managed to be productive as an underclassman. Now, Sonny Dykes is in town and his WR1 is routinely positioned as one of the most valuable assets in CFF. Johnston is the clear alpha in this room and will be facing a bad Colorado secondary that lost both of its starting corners to the transfer market (and both transferred within the conference — LOL). Eight of the Buff’s top 10 secondary options are either freshmen or sophomores. They’re in from a christening against TCU.
RB Kenny McIntosh, UGA - UNDER 17.5 Fantasy Points
This line is pretty bad. McIntosh is a talented running back who will make an NFL roster next year, but the UGA system used multiple backs and will not feature McIntosh as a workhorse. He’ll have to share the workload as this team always does, and I think this line is at a minimum five points too high. He’s being vastly overrated in some CFF markets because he’s a popular NFL Draft name, but that has very little to do with college production. The system matters most, and the system tells us that McIntosh won’t see more than 15 touches per game unless he is a clear outlier — which he hasn’t shown over his career.