Welcome to our Week 10 Game Hub with breakdowns of every contest from across the league. Our Tom Brolley gets you ready for this week’s action with the most important stats and trends for each fantasy-relevant player in the NFL. We also provide betting, weather, and injury reports with each game’s write-up to make sure you’re well-informed before you set lineups and/or place wagers. Let’s get to this week’s games!
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Week 10 Schedule
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos, 8:15 p.m., Thurs.
Raiders Trends
Record: 2-6 (3-5)
Geno Smith played better out of Las Vegas’ bye, completing 29/39 passes for 284 yards (7.3 YPA), 4 TDs, and 1 INT in an overtime loss to the Jaguars, adding 5/9 rushing for 27.3 FP. Geno previously failed to reach 13 FP in four straight games, and he’s thrown 11 INTs in his first eight games. The Broncos deploy the second-highest rate of man coverage (40.1%), and he averages 7.14 YPA with a -7.6% CPOE and 5/46 rushing on 83 dropbacks against man. Denver ranks fourth in pressure rate (43.2%), and Smith’s YPA (7.51>5.85), passer rating (97.8>45.7), and CPOE (2.5%>-11%) nosedive against pressure. The Raiders give up the 10th-fewest passing YPG (213.7) and the fewest passing TDs per game (.9) to QBs. Dak Prescott posted 188 scoreless yards and 6/31 rushing in this matchup two weeks ago.
Brock Bowers burst back into action with 12/127/3 receiving on 13 targets (33%) and 81% route share in an overtime loss to the Jaguars, adding a 6-yard carry for 43.3 FP. He fell below 50 receiving yards and double-digit FP in three straight games as he tried to play through the injury in Weeks 2-4. He’s reached 5+ receptions four times in five tries. The Broncos deploy the second-highest rate of man coverage (40.1%), and he averages 2.38 YPRR and .31 TPRR on 45 routes against man. Denver gives up the 16th-most receiving YPG (53.6) and the sixth-fewest receptions per game (4.1) to TEs, after Dalton Schultz posted 6/77 receiving in this matchup last week. Bowers recorded 8/97/1 and 4/38 receiving in two matchups against the Broncos last season.
Tre Tucker reached 4+ receptions in four of five games and double-digit FP three times in Weeks 3-7 before Las Vegas’ bye. He failed to keep up his momentum with Bowers returning to the lineup in Week 9, posting 3/38 receiving on 4 targets (10%) and a 100% route share in a loss to the Jaguars. Tucker and Jack Bech will see upticks in usage after the Raiders traded Jakobi Meyers to the Jaguars. The Broncos deploy the second-highest rate of man coverage (40.1%), and he averages 1.64 YPRR and .18 TPRR on 78 routes against man. Denver gives up the ninth-fewest receiving YPG (91.7) and the third-fewest YPRR (1.59) to receivers aligned out wide. Tucker posted 2/18 and 7/82 receiving in two games against the Broncos last season.
Ashton Jeanty mustered just 13/42 rushing against the Jaguars but added 5/47/1 receiving for 19.9 FP in Week 9. He finished with a 90% snap share, a 68% carry share, and a 58% route share in Las Vegas’ first game out of the bye. He’s reached 15.9+ FP and 86+ scrimmage yards in four out of his last five games. Jeanty ranks fifth MTF/ATT (.22) but 34th in YBCO/ATT (1.57) among 44 RBs with 50+ carries. Denver gives up the second-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.32), the 11th-fewest rushing YPG (79.6), and the 15th-most receiving YPG (31.1) to RBs. Javonte Williams grinded out 13/41/2 rushing and an 8-yard reception in this matchup two weeks ago.
Broncos Trends
- Record: 7-2 (4-4-1)
- Bo Nix didn’t make it easy once again, but he finished with 19.5 FP and pulled out a victory over the Texans. He completed 18/37 passes for 173 yards (4.7 YPA), 2 TDs, and 1 INT, adding 3/36 rushing and a 2-point conversion. He’s averaging just 6.14 YPA with a -.8% CPOE through nine weeks, but he’s run for 18+ yards seven times. The Raiders deploy the second-highest rate of Cover 3 (43.4%), and he averages 6.60 YPA with a -.8% CPOE and 5/45 rushing on 120 dropbacks against the coverage. Las Vegas gives up the 13th-most passing YPG (237.1) to QBs after Trevor Lawrence posted 220 scoreless yards and 9/24/2 rushing in this matchup last week. Nix totaled 479/4 passing and 9/14/1 rushing in two games against the Raiders last season.
- Courtland Sutton caught just 1 of his 6 targets (16%) in a tough matchup against the Texans, but he made it count with a 30-yard touchdown. He’s reached 4+ receptions, 61+ yards, and 10.7+ FP six times and just 1 reception in each of his other three games. The Raiders deploy the second-highest rate of Cover 3 (43.4%), and he averages 1.68 YPRR and .24 TPRR on 100 routes against the coverage. Las Vegas gives up the fourth-most YPRR (2.41) and the third-most receiving YPG (134.5) to receivers aligned out wide. Brian Thomas turned in 3/55 receiving in this matchup last week. Sutton posted 2/52 and 8/97/2 receiving in two matchups against the Raiders last season.
- Troy Franklin has reached 3+ receptions in 8-of-9 games. He finished with a modest 4/27 receiving on 10 targets (27%) and a 90% route share in a victory over the Texans with Mims (concussion) out in Week 9. Franklin has reached 8+ targets in three straight games with 3 TDs in that span. The Raiders deploy the second-highest rate of Cover 3 (43.4%), and he averages 2.26 YPRR and .22 TPRR on 93 routes against the coverage. Las Vegas gives up the 12th-fewest receiving YPG (61.4) and the sixth-fewest YPRR (1.51) to receivers aligned in the slot. Parker Washington posted 8/90 receiving in this matchup last week.
- Evan Engram turned in 4+ receptions and 29+ receiving yards in five straight games in Weeks 4-8 before dropping a goose egg on 3 targets (8%) and a 67% route share against the Texans. The Raiders deploy the second-highest rate of Cover 3 (43.4%), and he averages 1.50 YPRR and .24 TPRR on 50 routes against the coverage. The Raiders allow the ninth-fewest receiving YPG (45.1) and the fourth-fewest receptions per game (3.8) to TEs. Travis Kelce posted 3/54 receiving in this matchup in Week 7.
- J.K. Dobbins has reached 14+ carries and 61+ rushing yards in eight of his first nine games, but he’s fallen below double-digit FP in three of his last four games. He recorded 15/61 rushing and a -2-yard reception in a victory over the Texans. R.J. Harvey stayed out with his fourth TD in the last three games, posting 5/51/1 receiving and 2/5 rushing for 16.6 FP. Dobbins paced Harvey in snap share (45%>31%) and carry share (65%>9%), and Harvey led in route share (39%>13%). The Raiders allow the fourth-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.47), the 16th-fewest rushing YPG (86.5), and the ninth-fewest receiving YPG (25.5) to RBs. Travis Etienne compiled 22/84 rushing and 5/31 receiving in this matchup last week. Dobbins posted 10/135/1 and 18/63 rushing against the Raiders last season as a Charger.
