The Everything Report: 2025 Week 2

You spent countless hours researching for your fantasy draft. Or maybe you just took all of my “Exodia” plays and felt amazing about it. But either way, now is the time when fantasy championships are secured or fumbled. The instant gratification of your draft has passed, and we’re now faced with an avalanche of information from Week 1 of NFL football.

Luckily for you, I’m here to sift through all of it, separate the signal from the noise, and show you how to set your rosters up for a season full of success. Welcome to “The Week 2 Everything Report.”

This would be an impossible task if not for the army of ball-knowing film charters and the Fantasy Points Data Suite powered by their insights at our disposal. This is our edge.

Among the best tools for our task are “Expected Fantasy Points” (XFP). This metric tells us how many fantasy points a perfectly average player would have scored given perfectly average luck, taking into account the volume, location, and depth (among several other factors) of all their targets and touches. While your competition will primarily be tracking a player’s fantasy points (or perhaps their raw touch total), we can precisely identify both positive and negative regression candidates by comparing a player’s XFP to their actual output.

But it isn’t even that easy. Some players and offenses are just very good, making them capable of consistently outperforming their XFP over the entire season. The reverse is also true. Over the course of the year, some players’ roles will grow, and others’ will shrink. Some power-law offenses will provide unexpected explosions of fantasy production, and others will sputter. To make sense of it all, we’ll reach deep into our toolbox of data to paint you the most complete picture possible, covering every relevant situation each week.

Let’s get into the takeaways.

NOTE: This is a free preview of The Everything Report, which will be published every Tuesday. Going forward, it will be part of our NFL Standard, NFL Premium, and All-In Plans.

Top-30 XFP Leaderboard

11 Key Takeaways

1. Week 1 is a liar. Always. Only slappies overreact to Week 1

R-E-L-A-X.

Seriously, dude. Chill out.

Any serious DFS player will tell you Week 1 is always the weirdest, drunkest, least serious week. And this was certainly true this past weekend, when we saw a lot of talented teams look downright awful.

A few things to remember:

• It’s just a one-game sample size. (Don’t you remember rushing to the waiver wire for Isaiah Likely and Allen Lazard after Week 1 last year?)

• Defenses always have an early-season advantage over offenses.

• Many starting players on offense barely played in the preseason, so timing was understandably off. This is especially true of teams with a new play-caller, new playbook or system, and new/inexperienced teammates (especially those on the offensive line)

• Since the NFL added an extra regular-season game while removing a preseason game, Week 1 almost feels like an extension of the preseason. I bet many coaches and players feel similarly. Or at least, they’d agree September football seems much sloppier these days.

• Even some of the superstars seem to always struggle in Week 1 — consider how poorly Joe Burrow has played in Weeks 1-3 throughout his entire career. (The Bengals averaged a pathetic 2.4 yards per play on Sunday, ahead of only the Titans.)

To put some more numbers to it: heading into SNF, only three teams scored 30 points — the Steelers, Jets, and Colts. Keep in mind that the Jets/Steelers matchup had the lowest over/under of the week (a full 5.0 points lower than any other team). Heck, the Jets and Steelers might not have another 30-point game all year. From a fantasy perspective, Josh Allen was the only player to hit 30 points. Compare that to Week 17 last season, when ten players reached that mark.

Some of your other leaguemates might have drafted their team for Week 1. Not us. We have a lower time preference. We’re playing to win Week 15 and beyond. That’s probably one of our biggest edges.

We don’t want to be underreacting too much to usage changes this early in the year. But we especially don’t want to be overreacting to anything else that happens in Week 1. History tells us that current-season numbers don’t become more predictive than preseason ADP until around Week 6.

And remember: fantasy football is largely a game of attrition. We swung big in the draft in the hopes of landing a power-law player, knowing that even when we missed on a few, the safety net (and upside) of the waiver wire is always there to fall back on.

2. Christian McCalf-free?

Christian McCaffrey led all players in Week 1 with 30.1 XFP. He got there by leading all RBs in carries (22), a team-high 28.0% target share (admittedly, this would probably have been lower had both George Kittle and Jauan Jennings not exited the game), and by monopolizing all four backfield touches inside the 10-yard line. His 75% snap share came in well below where he was across three healthy games in 2024 (an insane 87.9%), but I’d count Brian Robinson’s 9 carries (all outside the red zone) as a blessing if that’s the approach the team is taking to keep McCaffrey healthy this year.

I just want to emphasize again that McCaffrey’s workload was amazing despite the Brian Robinson carries. His 0.42 XFP per team play easily led all RBs, by +13% more than the next closest RB in Week 1, or +35% more than any RB averaged last season.

And it looks like the 49ers will almost be forced to do this, at least in the near-term. McCaffrey’s 62 receiving yards after the catch alone in Week 1 were only 2 fewer than the rest of the team outside of what Ricky Pearsall produced combined. The team just signed street free agent Kendrick Bourne, a signal we can expect little receiving production out of anyone not named Pearsall or McCaffrey for the immediate future.

So are we out of the woods on the injury front? On this particular calf injury, it sounds like it. Per Dr. Chao on CMC, it “does appear it was a calf cramp and not a calf strain. He should be fine." As long as McCaffrey is active, he should always project as the highest-scoring RB of the week. And for any games that Kittle and Jennings remain out, it should be by a significant margin.

…that is, as long as Brock Purdy himself can suit up. It sounds like his status is also suddenly in doubt for this Sunday. But at least backup Mac Jones would likely feed McCaffrey 15 targets behind the line of scrimmage; the Patriots ranked top-5 in backfield target share during each of Jones’ three seasons as a starter when he was faced with a similarly weak receiver corps. He averages a 20.5% target share to RBs (would rank 3rd-best, and ahead of Purdy at 17.0%).

3. Kenneth Walker… Pain

I’ll be real: this looks pretty bad.

I felt amazing about my Kenneth Walker call heading into the season. There was a single ESPN beat report (at the time, I read it as much more of an opinion than a report) speculating that Zach Charbonnet could challenge Walker for the RB1 role, or at least force more of a backfield rotation than we’d ever seen the Seahawks use before, based on all the practice time Walker was missing in early August. But that same week, Walker returned to practice, I concluded that the team was intentionally load-managing him during the preseason to ensure he’d be a full go for a big workload in Week 1, and all seemed good from my sources.

What we saw from Seattle’s backfield this weekend isn’t quite as black-and-white as “Charbonnet has forced a 50/50 committee.” Walker was the only back to get a touch on 3 of the team’s first 4 drives, and he out-touched Charbonnet 7 to 3 in the second half. Walker actually beat Charbonnet by XFP (10.8 to 10.5) because of his three targets to Charbonnet’s zero. But Charbonnet’s early drive was one of the few all game in which the Seahawks’ offense worked, and I truthfully expected him to be in no more than a change-of-pace role.

So there are three possibilities: 1) That ESPN report was correct, and we should expect a near-50/50 committee to make this backfield near-worthless for fantasy all year, 2) Walker was still being load-managed in Week 1 (due to health and/or conditioning), and will be fully unleashed as a true bell cow at some indeterminate point this season, or 3) The Seahawks fully intended for Walker to be the clear lead back in Week 1, but attempted to catch the lightning in a bottle that ended up being the team’s 3rd drive by mixing Charbonnet in more than they originally planned, trying to do more of what worked. After neither RB was effective for the remainder of the game, we’ll be at something approximating a blank slate going into Week 2, with Walker again getting the first crack at a clear lead role.

I’m not really sure which is true. Perhaps we’ll receive a post-game report or a coaching staff quote this week that will point us in one of these directions. (All we’ve gotten so far is this quote, in which HC Mike MacDonald praised both backs and promised more opportunities for each, which could be argued to point toward any or none of our three scenarios). But considering I’ve spent three paragraphs breaking this down already, I can basically guarantee that nobody in your fantasy league is going to pay you a price for Walker that reflects the uncertainty, nuance, and upside I believe still exists here.

At this point, I’d pivot off of Walker for any RB I had ranked above him pre-season, or for workhorse profiles who saw strong usage in Week 1 like Omarion Hampton, Josh Jacobs, Breece Hall, and Kyren Williams. But for RBs like Alvin Kamara and James Conner — older players who also disappointed in terms of their Week 1 roles? Or TreVeyon Henderson and RJ Harvey, who I’m pretty sure will be hyper-efficient lead backs at some point this year, but who also didn’t wow with immediate lead back usage? I’ll take my chances that Walker’s role is better next week over any of these names, and that scenario #2 or #3 is the one we’re living in.

4. Checking back in on our Exodia QB…

It was pretty painful to watch Exodia QB Drake Maye manage only 15.6 fantasy points in Week 1, while every Exodia QB runner-up seemed to go nuclear.

Maye did compile 287 passing yards (6th-most on the week), but it took him 46 pass attempts to get there. And I was so excited about Maye’s rushing potential this year (as this new coaching staff was supposed to provide him with more designed rushing work), but he managed just 11 rushing yards on four attempts in this contest (only 1 designed run).

I want to make a number of excuses for Maye. That it’s only Week 1. That his WR1 Stefon Diggs is still working his way back from surgery, playing on only 60% of the team’s snaps. That, both on film and via the advanced stats, Maye’s accuracy still popped to a high degree. And that it’s actually pretty sick that the Patriots led the league in pass attempts and pass rate over expectation (+14.3%).

I want to make these excuses, but Fantasy Points’ resident film expert Brett Whitefield is cautioning me not to. He put it succinctly to me in my DMs — “He looked awful. He just might not be very good at football.” When pressed for more the following day, Whitefield trashed Maye’s football IQ, and compared him to early-career Josh Allen. You may remember I had been referring Maye as “Josh Allen’s little brother” all offseason, but Whitefield meant it as a negative. “Total cinderella-like transformations are so rare in the NFL. It just doesn’t happen. And Allen is the outlier of all outliers. It should be illegal to compare any player to him.”

Whitefield’s opinion matters a great deal to me, but he’s also an NFL analyst, and not a fantasy analyst. And every year, there are plenty of players who may be bad at “real football” while being league-winners for fantasy.

So, I’m definitely not panicking… yet.

But I am looking to pick up a high-upside QB2 such as Justin Herbert, Justin Fields, or Daniel Jones. If they’re all already rostered in your league, Jaxson Dart might be worth a stash. I think he’ll be named the starter as soon as LT Andrew Thomas is fully healthy, which could be as early as Week 3.

I would definitely not be dropping Maye. Even this week, I’m still viewing him as a top-10 option against an awful Miami secondary (that Daniel Jones just dropped 29.5 fantasy points on). But, because of what Whitefield told me, I am worried I will regret not naming Herbert or Fields my 2025 Exodia QB.

5. Checking in on the Exodia QB runners-up…

I came very close to naming Justin Herbert my Exodia QB back in July. But, I ultimately — after hours of watching tape — came to the conclusion that he just didn’t have the same rushing upside as Maye.

But even if that were true, Herbert is significantly more talented (a top-10 in-real-life QB) and in a much better offense with a significantly better supporting cast. And actually, Herbert would have finished behind only Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Jalen Hurts in rushing yards if not for plays negated and kneeldowns. (Maybe I should just stick to my spreadsheets.)

Justin Fields, formerly an Exodia, might have come close to being named an Exodia QB again if the vibes out of Florham Park weren’t Zach Wilson levels of awful [1, 2, 3]. But even when Fields was playing at a bottom-5 level from a real-life perspective, he was always top-10 from a fantasy perspective. And there were clear signs of improvement. (And why wouldn’t we expect him to improve? Look at the growth we’ve seen from QBs like Josh Allen, Geno Smith, and Jared Goff throughout their careers.)

I gave you a Whitefield quote in the Maye section. Here’s one from him on Fields — “I hate Week 1 overreactions, but Fields and Garrett Wilson are giving off massive league-winner vibes. I did not expect them to come in here and carve up an elite defense like this… Tanner Engstrand deserves a ton of credit. He called a beautiful game. Maybe it’s not a coincidence that the Jets offense is looking way more like the Lions’ offense than the Lions.”

Of course, Whitefield is speaking only from a real-life NFL perspective. From a fantasy perspective, things might look even better. Fields scored 29.5 fantasy points (2nd-most on the week), including 16.8 on the ground (more than all but 16 QBs scored in totality). Remarkably, Fields only scrambled twice. He had 10 designed runs (excluding kneeldowns), which was as many as any QB had in any game last year.

Dak Prescott was another late-round QB target I loved. I felt like he was guaranteed to beat his ADP and finish as a low-end QB1 at worst, while possessing some upside beyond that as well. Although the production wasn’t there in Week 1, Prescott looked phenomenal. (Javonte Williams scored two rushing touchdowns, and then a weather delay just totally derailed this game, as both teams combined for just 3 points in the second half.) Dallas’ defense looked a little bit better than expected, but I still really like Theo Gremminger’s call that Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and George Pickens might be the NFC’s Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins.

Daniel Jones looks like he could be this year’s 2024 Sam Darnold, if not this year’s 2024 Baker Mayfield.

Jones was awful in New York, of course… But so was Saquon freaking Barkley. Jones had a bottom-3 offensive line and a bottom-3 receiving corps in each of his six injury-plagued seasons with the Giants, but the 2025 Colts are top-7 in both categories.

Even though Jones struggled from a real-life perspective, he was always quite a bit better for fantasy. For perspective, he averages 18.2 FPG (~QB12) over his last 21 healthy games. That’s thanks in large part to his underrated mobility. Pre-ACL, he was scrambling at a rate comparable to Jayden Daniels, and then post-ACL, he still averages 7.0 rushing FPG across his final six games (more than Lamar Jackson last year). Believe it or not, Jones has exactly as many career games with over 90 rushing yards as Mike Vick and Cam Newton.

And Shane Steichen has always been one of the more QB-friendly playcallers from a fantasy perspective. Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts had a ton of success with Steichen, and even Anthony Richardson ranked top-6 in FP/DB in back-to-back seasons despite being the least-accurate QB since Tim Tebow. Even when the efficiency isn’t there for Jones and company, there’s still room for fantasy points because of Steichen’s preferred pace of play — the Colts led the league in situation-neutral pace of play in each of the last two seasons.

Add it all up, and Ryan Heath and I might be the least surprised of anyone to see Jones’ monster 29.5-fantasy point outing in Week 1 (2nd-most on the week). He performed well as a passer (115.9 passer rating), while also vulturing two 1-yard rushing touchdowns in a very Jalen Hurts-like fashion. But we also need to keep in mind, he was going up against what was unanimously the worst-projected secondary in the league. And, also, we need to keep telling ourselves it’s only Week 1. Does anyone else remember Carson Wentz through the first two weeks of the 2022 season?

Again, I really don’t want to overreact to a one-game sample size. But I will probably be ranking Fields as a mid-range QB1, Herbert and Maye as low-end QB1s, and Jones and Prescott as high-end QB2s this week.

6. Checking in on the Exodia RBs…

Chase Brown ranked 2nd in carries behind only Christian McCaffrey (21) — ceding zero to other Bengals RBs — ranked top-5 in XFP (18.2), and looked excellent on his touchdown at the goal line. His 13.1 fantasy points feel like a lock to increase in future weeks. He did run a slightly disappointing 42.9% route share (22nd, and well below his 62.2% route share from Week 9 on in 2024) and didn’t see any designed targets as we were led to believe, though the same was true of all Bengals players.

But overall, I’ll definitely take this performance. Only 8 RBs beat Brown’s 13.0% target share in Week 1, and only Christian McCaffrey averaged more XFP per team play than Brown (0.37) — the Bengals ran an uncharacteristically low number of offensive plays (49), the 3rd-fewest of any team. That feels like a lock to come up in future weeks after the Bengals ran the 11th-most plays last year — they just always get dragged into these uglier, low-scoring games against Cleveland. I remain high on Brown as a top-8 RB rest-of-season.

Kenneth Walker… Yeah, it’s bad. I dedicated a longer write-up to him above.

It wasn’t ideal, but it also wasn’t surprising that J.K. Dobbins had 10 more carries than RJ Harvey. However, it was pretty ideal that Harvey averaged 11.7 YPC to Dobbins’ 3.9. (Even without his 50-yard run, Harvey was still more efficient than Dobbins.) I think it’s only a matter of time until Harvey is the one with 16 carries, and Dobbins is the one with 6 (if he can even stay healthy that long).

I was also pleasantly surprised that Harvey (11) ran more routes than Dobbins (8), tying Tyler Badie for the backfield lead. It was Badie who saw the backfield’s designed targets, but he is a small scatback with just 124 career YFS. If this is who Harvey must displace for the early-down receiving and screen target role, it could happen sooner than expected (maybe even as soon as Week 2?).

Harvey’s 31.0% snap share was higher than Jahmyr Gibbs saw in his first career game. De’Von Achane was a healthy scratch in his first career game. This is a general note that applies to all rookies: you drafted them because of what they’ll do in October, November, and December, not September.

Maybe I’m still suffering from Cam Skattebo Derangement Syndrome (I kept warning you he might be my new Elijah Moore), but I was as encouraged by his Week 1 performance as would be possible for a guy who saw only 7 snaps (11.3%) and had negative rushing yards on his longest run of the day.

Remember, we were never expecting to count on Skattebo for anything until October at the earliest. He’s still getting his wings under him after missing nearly all of August training camp due to injury. In the absolute best possible scenario, I had hoped we might see Tracy shed some high-value touches to Skattebo at some point in September. And we actually did see that in Week 1! Skattebo received only 7 snaps, 2 carries, and 2 targets, but he led the backfield in receiving yards and received the team’s only carry inside the 5-yard line. Only 7 snaps, but still enough for me to put together this highlight reel:

On his first career snap, he made a killer block in pass protection, which allowed Malik Nabers to pick up a first down. Skattebo then forced two missed tackles on his first career catch. And on Skattebo’s goal-line carry, he leveled his own offensive lineman. You might be asking, Why was Marcus Mbow facing the wrong direction and trying to tackle his own ball-carrier? Because the Giants are a totally unserious and non-functional offense until LT Andrew Thomas comes back. But we should expect a big efficiency boost once that happens, and then a further boost once Russell Wilson is inevitably benched for rookie Jaxson Dart.

Until then, Skattebo’s stat line is largely irrelevant. Tyrone Tracy’s numbers might be more important, and I’ll take it as another positive sign for Marshall Chalk that Tracy managed just 2.4 YPC and 2.2 YPT on Sunday.

Bhayshul Tuten finished 3rd on the Jaguars in carries (3), but he at least logged a touch before Tank Bigsby, who didn’t touch the ball until the second half. Travis Etienne mostly operated as the Jaguars’ bellcow (66.7% snap share and 12.8 XFP). So it looks like Etienne will be the only productive member of this backfield in the immediate future, but I interpreted the other backs’ usage as something of a tryout to see who may be traded or left as a gameday inactive in future weeks.

To that end, Bigsby is officially being traded to the Eagles. I don’t consider rookie LeQuint Allen to be at all in competition for the Jaguars’ primary rushing role — he logged only one carry and played 8 of his 9 snaps on 3rd down. Pure scatback and pass protection snaps are not valuable fantasy usage, so I’m not at all understanding why some in the industry have interpreted the Bigsby trade as a positive for Allen. In my view, this clears the way for Tuten to immediately enter a change-of-pace role behind Etienne on the ground.

If he takes over the ~32% of backfield carries he and Bigsby combined for on Sunday, that is ample opportunity for him to showcase his big-play ability (he ranked 3rd-best in this class by career explosive run rate, and led the class in both career yards after contact and missed tackles forced per attempt). He record a top-5 SPORQ athleticism score among all RBs at the Combine since 2000. I’m reaffirming Tuten’s prospect profile here because we just watched HC Liam Coen allow a Day 3 rookie to earn the starting role over the couse of a season, while Travis Etienne has started hot and then almost immediately worn down over each of the past two years.

Zooming out here, we just watched a team do something fairly uncommon by carrying 4 RBs onto the active roster in Week 1, in part because of how much Tuten (and, sure, Allen in his specialized role) impressed them in training camp. They subsequently traded away the veteran who was in direct competition for touches with Tuten in their first game. It sounds like they really like Tuten! He’s a must-hold, as I’m very optimistic he eventually forces his way into a larger role.

7. Checking in on the Exodia WRs…

Tetairoa McMillan did everything we’d liked to have seen from a peripheral usage perspective. His 16.8 XFP ranked top-15 at the position through the Sunday games. Only Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zay Flowers, CeeDee Lamb, and Puka Nacua — all big Week 1 winners — amassed a higher share of their team’s receiving yards than McMillan (44.2%). He appears to be every bit the instant alpha target-earner we envisioned, with the above stats not even including two additional targets he earned that were negated due to penalty.

McMillan also looked amazing on film, per basically everybody. The only problem is that it all amounted to only 11.8 PPR points and 68 receiving yards, because we got the bad version of Bryce Young in Week 1.

Young posted the lowest passer rating of any QB of the week (49.0), alongside a pathetic 2.00 ANY/A . He averaged more than triple that (6.21) over his final seven games of 2024. But there’s a good chance these were just Week 1 jitters that several QBs across the league experienced; Young’s highly accurate throw rate (60.0%) and catchable throw rate (77.1%) were both up from his late-2024 numbers. He was one of only three QBs to throw a highly accurate ball on more than half of his throws 10+ yard downfield from a clean pocket (min. 10 qualifying attempts). I wouldn’t be surprised if McMillan totally smashes as early as Week 2 against the Cardinals, or at least by Weeks 3-5 when he faces suspect secondaries in the Falcons, Patriots, and Dolphins.

Rashee Rice didn’t play in Week 1, but Xavier Worthy’s shoulder injury is possibly (perhaps probably) going to lead to surgery, which would knock him out for the remainder of the year. Even if not, Jeff Mueller expects him to rehab for at least a few weeks, further running out the clock on Rice’s suspension and forcing the Chiefs to rely heavily on Hollywood Brown, who was force-fed an absurd 16 targets in Week 1. In a way, I feel like we dodged a bullet here — it sounded like Worthy was going to be a large part of the Chiefs’ gameplan, and the potential for him to emerge as a true target-earner in his own right over the first six weeks was probably the biggest risk working against Rice. Now that’s mostly disappeared, and we have further proof that this is one of the most valuable roles in fantasy. (If Hollywood Brown can get 10 catches in the “Rashee Rice-role”, Rice might have had 18.) Rice feels like a lock to finish top-10 at the position in FPG.

Emeka Egbuka scored 23.6 fantasy points in Week 1, ranking 4th-best among all WRs through the Sunday games. This was obviously very encouraging, as he finished 2nd on the Buccaneers behind only Mike Evans in first-read target share (20%) and XFP (11.6) while running nearly half his routes from the slot. Two touchdowns won’t happen every week, but if this offense can get back on track and stop allowing the NFL’s 3rd-highest pressure rate (48.6% on Sunday) once Tristan Wirfs returns (potentially in Week 3 or 4, since he wasn’t placed on PUP), he could be an especially productive running mate to Evans. Some of this relies on Chris Godwin’s effectiveness upon his return (which we’re bearish on) — reportedly sometime between Weeks 5-7 — but until then, Egbuka is in the WR2 mix each week. Some people are calling him a sell-high? A rookie with rave reviews from what felt like every member of the coaching staff, team, and Buccaneers beat just scored twice in his NFL debut. Egbuka is looking like a league-winner.

Ricky Pearsall balled out in Week 1, catching 4 of 7 targets for 108 yards. Pearsall totaled the 6th-most receiving yards of any player, despite one of the worst catchable target rates on the week. (I tried to tell you… Ricky P is just nice like that — check out this thread of highlights compiled by Jacob Gibbs.) Accurate balls might remain harder to come by while Purdy deals with shoulder and toe injuries (most likely turf toe, which could hinder accuracy), but Pearsall’s volume should remain excellent with George Kittle sidelined and Jauan Jennings rusty and dealing with a shoulder injury.

Luther Burden’s Week 1 went about as expected. Which is to say, he was barely involved. However, Olamide Zaccheaus showed us the “Luther Burden-role” he’s currently occupying will eventually prove valuable — Zaccheaus’ 7 targets were 2 more than D.J. Moore and 2 shy of the team-high. For now, we just have to wait until Burden supplants him. (And some of us Burden-owners might also be waiting for a QB change.)

8. Checking in on our favorite TEs…

George Kittle got off to a hot start, earning 4 targets on 12 routes, and turning that into 12.5 fantasy points before succumbing to a game-ending injury early in the second quarter.

And well, yeah, this obviously stinks.

Kittle is my favorite player in the NFL. And I think he’s probably the most valuable offensive player (non-QB) in football. His only problem is that he’s always hurt.

Luckily, he heals faster than Wolverine and plays through anything. (Even Kyle Shanahan will tell you, this is “not a normal person.”) And, mind you, plays through anything at an extremely high level. But yeah, this stinks.

Kittle has been placed on injured reserve and is going to miss at least his next four games. Hopefully, Kittle’s mutant healing factor will get him back into your starting lineup on the shorter end of that timeline.

I want to apologize to all of you early drafters who took David Njoku. I felt really good about that call until about mid-August when Cleveland beat writers completely changed their tune from, “Harold Fannin Jr. could be a breakout player in 2027” to “Wow! Yeah, this guy might actually be a full-time starter and a key focal point of the passing attack as early as Week 1.” We’ll talk more about Fannin in our next section, but yeah, this certainly doesn’t look great for Njoku.

It is not the case that Njoku is now in a TE-by-committee situation. Njoku’s 85.9% snap share was actually higher than it was a season ago (76.0%). It’s just that Fannin represents extra target competition, occupying the same schemed YAC role and looking for targets in the same area of the field where Njoku has received the bulk of his work. By mid-August, I had warned you of this possibility and removed Exodia status from Njoku. Now it’s not just a concern, but a reality. Or a reality-turned-nightmare for his owners, checking the boxscore to find that Fannin out-targeted (9 to 5) and out-gained (63 to 37) Njoku to a considerable degree. Perhaps most damning of all, Fannin had a 24.0% first-read target share, while Njoku’s was all the way down at 8.0% (was at 21.7% last year).

Is it actually over for Njoku? I don’t know. I think you have no choice but to view him as a low-end TE1 this week and hope Fannin’s Week 1 usage was an aberration. Or that (less likely) there’s room for both TEs in this offense. But I’m not at all bullish. And Fantasy Points’ Senior Film Analyst Steven O’Rourke has made me even more pessimistic — “It’s a good thing Cleveland has Fannin now, because Njoku looked like he was moving in slow-motion.”

Even so, you are definitely not dropping Njoku. At least not yet.

But right now, you need to be extremely proactive in trying to find another TE to add off waivers. Fannin, Juwan Johnson, Chig Okonkwo, and Michael Mayer (pending word on a potential Brock Bowers absence) would all qualify. Maybe even Jake Tonges as well.

Colston Loveland’s debut was also extremely disappointing. I’m still bullish on his potential to be a league-winner in the second half of the season, but he’s not someone you can count on for fantasy points (nor should you have in your starting lineup) for at least another month. So, like with Njoku, you need to be proactive on waivers.

Loveland was clearly behind Cole Kmet in Week 1, by snap share (55.6% to 87.3%), route share (44.2% to 65.1%), and target share (11.4% to 5.7%). That’s especially tilting considering we were told that Kmet was running with the second team early in training camp, and then saw that more or less confirmed during the preseason.

I can believe the Bears value Kmet’s blocking ability, but I also think it’s only a matter of time until Loveland forces his way into a ~75% route share. Remember, this is the TE the Bears drafted 10th overall (and over Tyler Warren, whose debut couldn’t have gone any better) after he posted the best receiving yardage market share by any Power Conference TE in the past 15 years.

It helps that while Loveland ran only 5 routes from a 1-TE set to Kmet’s 18, both of his targets came from these formations (for a 40% TPRR), and he hauled both of them in, including adjusting to a bad throw placed behind him. Contrast that with Kmet, who didn’t look like he was on the same page as Williams all night, and didn’t record a reception on any of these routes until there were 2:53 remaining in the 4th quarter.

One silver lining is that there was a clear intent to get Loveland on the field in different situations, as the Bears ran 49% of their plays from 12 and 13-personnel (well above the 23% we saw from Ben Johnson’s Lions last year). Another silver lining? Loveland ran triple the number of routes from the slot as fellow rookie Luther Burden, a role that appears just as valuable (in sum) as when Ben Johnson was in Detroit, and which no individual player clearly claimed for themselves last night.

So yeah, I would definitely give Loveland a few games to establish himself in a full-time role. But you should definitely be trying to add either Harold Fannin or Juwan Johnson this week if you were relying on him as the only TE on your roster. Caleb Williams didn’t look great after the first drive last night (he was arguably the least-accurate QB of Week 1), but was at least much better at evading sacks (just an 11.1% pressure-to-sack ratio) against a blitz- and pressure-heavy Brian Flores defense after an all-time bad rookie season in that department. I still have cautious optimism that this can be a productive offense.

Things almost couldn’t have gone any better for Tyler Warren in his NFL debut. He finished with a team-high 9 targets, catching 7 for 76 yards. His 31.0% target share not only led all TEs but ranked 9th among all players. His 0.39 TPRR ranked 6th-best among WR/TEs, and just ahead of Bowers’ 0.35 for the position-high.

This was Brock Bowers-esque usage for a player who, mind you, had 400 more YFS last year than Bowers had in any college season. Or perhaps better yet, this was Josh Downs with Joe Flacco-esque usage. If Downs’ 50.0% route share and 10.0% first-read target share are a sign of things to come and is not related to Downs’ mid-August hamstring injury, Warren really could wind up being this year’s Brock Bowers. Or, at least, that’s what he looks like today, while the vibes are sky-high.[1, 2]

Who would have thought? The guy coming off of what was arguably the greatest TE season in college football history ended up being really good at the NFL level. (Of course, we can say the exact same thing about Fannin.)

Heading into Week 2, I’m ranking Warren as a mid-range TE1, Njoku and Fannin as low-end TE1s, and Loveland as a low-end TE2.

9. Is Harold Fannin your No. 1 waiver wire target this week? Or is he just this year’s Isaiah Likely?

In his first-ever NFL game, Fannin earned a team-high 9 targets, catching 7 for 63 yards. His 0.31 TPRR ranked 12th among all WR/TEs on the week (min. 20 targets), and behind only Tyler Warren and Brock Bowers among TEs. As alluded to earlier, his 24.0% first-read target share ranked 7th among TEs, and was 3X that of David Njoku.

Let me just start off by saying, this did not come as a total shock to me — I was perhaps stupidly high on Fannin as a prospect. I ranked him as my pre-Combine TE2, and wrote a number of extremely complementary things about him here.

The dude is really good at football. He just put together what was arguably the greatest TE season in CFB history (if Tyler Warren didn’t have it). Heck, call him a WR, and it might have been a better year than from any WR in this year’s class.

Here’s how I’m seeing Fannin’s range of outcomes in 2025:

• Bull Case: Fannin is Cleveland’s Brock Bowers. Or maybe he’s Jordan Matthews in that he’s basically an overgrown slot WR with TE eligibility for fantasy. Either way, we should expect this usage is going to stick. Why wouldn’t it? He’s clearly the best possession receiver on the team, let alone a better WR3 than Jamari freaking Thrash. You’re not really going to fade the guy who holds every CFB TE record in the book, are you?

• Base Case: Fannin is Cleveland’s Jonnu Smith. Whether that’s Atlanta-era Smith or Miami-era Smith I can’t say for certain. But, basically, we should expect a 60-65% route share and an inordinately high number of screen targets per game. What is that worth? Well, in 2023, Jonnu Smith averaged 7.4 FPG (TE23), slightly behind teammate Kyle Pitts’ 8.1 (TE18). But, last year, Smith averaged 18.7 FPG over his final 8 games, which would have led all TEs by +2.9 FPG and ranked 5th among WRs if over the full season.

• Bear Case: Fannin is Cleveland’s Isaiah Likely. Perhaps, like with Likely, Week 1 will be Fannin’s best usage and highest-scoring game of the year. (Likely scored 26.1 fantasy points in Week 1 last year, and then averaged 6.6 FPG throughout the remainder of the year.) Perhaps this was entirely a function of the matchup — Cincinnati probably has the worst coverage linebackers and safeties in the league, which might have been evidenced by their league-high 16.6 FPG allowed to TEs last year. (Likely’s big game came against a Kansas City defense that gave up the most receiving yards to opposing TEs, but the 6th-fewest receiving yards to WRs. Baltimore’s offensive line came into that game ailing, and because Kansas City was successful in pressuring Lamar Jackson, Jackson was forced to funnel everything short where Likely typically operates. Ultimately, Baltimore played out of 12 personnel on 51.4% of their snaps in Week 1, but that ended up being their only game over 44% all year.) If not that, then perhaps we see WR Isaiah Bond continue to ascend, and eventually supplant Fannin as the No. 3 receiver. For those unaware, Bond was a likely Day 2 pick and a player I was very high on, who fell out of the draft due to since resolved legal issues. Bond ran 11 routes on Sunday, which was a lot more than I was anticipating, considering he only signed with the team three weeks ago. (It’s just so rare to see a team have multiple TEs so heavily involved in their passing game like this. And as Max Toscano would tell you, it’s even rarer to find a receiving TE, who isn't a strong in-line blocker, who is such a good receiver it's worth keeping them on the field over a real slot receiver. There’s basically Travis Kelce, Brock Bowers, and nobody else.)

And then, of course, we have yet to ask what any of these roles might be worth on the Browns. On one hand, Kevin Stefanski offenses have always been amazing (seriously so much better than you might think or remember) whenever he’s had at least competent levels of quarterbacking (Joe Flacco and Jameis Winston, not Deshaun Watson or DTR). On the other hand, the Browns have among the best odds of drafting 1st overall next year, which means they also have the best odds of soft-tanking, or starting an in-over-his-head Round 3-5 rookie QB (coached by some interim guy) throughout the second half of the season.

So, clearly, there’s a lot of uncertainty here and a wide range of outcomes. But because ‘Upside Wins Championships’… Because the bull case is so much more important… Because the bull case is so much more valuable than the downside of the bear case is detrimental… Because of all those things, I want to be aggressive in adding Fannin to my rosters. If I don’t have Trey McBride or Sam LaPorta on my roster, I’d be happy to spend 25-30% of my FAAB on Fannin, although he’ll probably go for less than that in casual leagues. (Unlike Likely, Fannin only scored 13.6 fantasy points.)

10. Is Jacorey Croskey-Merritt real?

Yes. At least, insofar as he has taken the “Brian Robinson role,” which means he’ll see a slight majority of backfield carries (50% in Week 1, or 59% before Jeremy McNichols’ meaningless three carries as time expired after Croskey-Merritt had just iced the game with a 42-yard breakaway), will mix in on red zone work and be the favored option at the goal line (2 of 6 team carries inside the 20, 1 of 1 inside the 10), and see a very occasional early-down target (he saw a 3.3% target share in Week 1, to Austin Ekeler’s 10.0%). Croskey-Merritt looked decisive and showcased real burst, forcing two missed tackles and taking advantage of lead blockers. I definitely buy that he’s made McNichols irrelevant, and that he will be an efficient runner with some TD equity on a good offense this year.

But the “Brian Robinson role” doesn’t hold very much season-long fantasy upside. It was worth just 11.8 XFP/G last year (RB30) — solid FLEX-level production, but nothing all that difference-making. Croskey-Merritt is probably better than Robinson and should be more efficient, but it will still be difficult for him to average more than ~14.0 FPG at any point this season unless he starts pushing Ekeler on passing downs (which seems unlikely, given his 7 career NCAA receptions), or the Commanders stop using Jayden Daniels and Deebo Samuel as runners in the red zone (seems even less likely). If you drafted Croskey-Merritt in the double-digit rounds, you just got yourself a free FLEX/low-end RB2 with TD upside in games the Commanders are big favorites (which should be relatively frequently). But I wouldn’t expect more than that.

As for whether you should “sell high,” I’d gladly exchange him for a different rookie with a higher season-long touch ceiling, but who wasn’t immediately involved in Week 1 — think R.J. Harvey or TreVeyon Henderson. But I wouldn’t be interested in selling for other low-end RB2 types with less talent upside; I’ll take him over players like Jaylen Warren, Tyrone Tracy, or J.K. Dobbins.

11. Focus on the usage/volume, not the box score for these three WRs:

• I’m no film expert, I’m an analytics nerd. But based on both the film [1, 2, 3] and the analytics, I would not be surprised if Malik Nabers establishes himself as a talent on par with Justin Jefferson this year. In Week 1, and including plays negated due to penalty, Nabers drew 15 targets, good for 28.5 XFP (behind only Christian McCaffrey). Thanks to Russell Wilson’s 56.8% catchable throw rate (worst among all 32 QBs in Week 1), Nabers scored only 12.1 fantasy points. Still, watching that game, it seemed as though Nabers deserved even more target volume. And that he should have had at least 130 yards if his QB was just “bad” and not “worst QB in the league”-levels of bad. I’m expecting a big jump in accuracy, efficiency, and scoring potential once LT Andrew Thomas returns to the starting lineup. And then another accuracy, efficiency, and scoring boost once Jaxson Dart (Brett Whitefield’s QB1 from the 2024 class) is named the starting QB. I think this could happen as early as Week 4.

• Drake London finished just barely behind Nabers in XFP (28.3), but that was also +5.0 more than the next-closest player (CeeDee Lamb). London saw 15 targets (35.7% target share), including 2 end zone targets (London’s bread and butter) and 1 deep target. Unfortunately, he was a little off his game, dropping both end zone targets. As a result, he scored only 13.5 fantasy points, just 47% of his volume-based expectation. I’d bet on this regressing to the mean, and would confidently rank London as a top-10 WR this week. Probably top-5 if Darnell Mooney sits out again. (London averages an insane 13.5 targets and 20.7 FPG in 4 career games with Michael Penix Jr., but Mooney has missed half of these games.)

• Don’t sleep on Elic Ayomanor as one of the top waiver wire adds of the week. And potential even as “this year’s 2023 Puka Nacua”, even if such a thing is extremely unlikely to exist (let alone exist on the Titans’ offense). In his NFL debut, Ayomanor only scored 3.3 fantasy points, but he also had an 84% snap share, a team-high 36.8% first-read target share (WR9), and the most unrealized air yards on the week (120). Patrick Surtain’s shadow coverage on Calvin Ridley certainly inflated Ayomanor’s volume, but it’s still very encouraging that, already, Ayomanor appears to be the clear No. 2 receiver in this offense. Ayomanor was Brett Whitefield’s WR3 in this year’s class, but inevitably slipped in the Draft (presumably due to medical red flags). He’s a player I’d be looking to drop 10-15% of my FAAB on.

12. Puka Nacua; Destroyer of Fantasy Leagues

I think Puka Nacua is going to finish as the overall WR1 in fantasy.

If God turned off injuries and I were re-drafting my team today, I’m either taking Nacua or McCaffrey with the 1st overall pick.

Nacua was absolutely insane on Sunday.

Despite missing time in the game because he was bleeding from his freaking eye and had to be evaluated for a concussion, Nacua put together one of the 20-best performances Fantasy Points Data has ever seen from a WR (min. 20 routes). Or at least that was the case by these four stats:

• 0.333 first downs per route run (99.7 percentile)

• 0.52 targets per route run (99.1 percentile)

• 55% threat rate (98.6 percentile)

• 6.19 yards per route run (98.5 percentile)

First downs per route run (1D/RR) is the best and most predictive WR metric for fantasy. And Nacua just put together the 4th-best 1D/RR performance of any WR in Fantasy Points Data history (of 1,350 qualifiers).

I thought Nacua’s utilization almost couldn’t have been any better than it was last year, when he averaged 0.75 XFP/RR (2nd-most in Fantasy Points Data history)… Except that his usage is looking even better than last year — Nacua’s slot rate jumped to 76.2% in Week 1 (up from 31.9% last year).

If you managed to grab Nacua when he slipped to Round 2, that’s looking like one of the best picks you could have made. Just pray both he and QB Matthew Stafford stay healthy.

Quarterbacks

• Only Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields averaged more fantasy points per dropback than J.J. McCarthy in Week 1 (0.97). In just the fourth quarter alone (on only 8 total dropbacks), McCarthy scored 20.9 fantasy points. That’s the 5th-most fantasy points by a QB in any single quarter of a game since the start of last season. (Kevin O’Connell wasn’t doing McCarthy any favors through the first three quarters of the game. To that point, 58% of his throws came on 2nd or 3rd down and long.) Remember, McCarthy was Whitefield’s QB1 in the 2024 class. And also remember O’Connell’s insane track record with QBs. McCarthy is yet another late-round QB with Exodia potential, and another strong waiver wire add for any Drake Maye-owner looking for a QB2 with upside.

Running Backs

• Nothing has really changed with Kyren Williams. He amassed 18 of the backfield’s 19 carries and both goal-line touches, yet commanded just a 6.9% target share (to last year’s 7.3%, which ranked ~RB41). He’s a fringe top-14 weekly option who will have big games when the Rams’ offense scores multiple rushing touchdowns, but will be a fade for DFS purposes in any expected negative game scripts. In Week 2 against a struggling Titans team, he’ll be an easy RB1.

• Bijan Robinson went over 100 receiving yards with Darnell Mooney out of the lineup, but his usage was a bit strange in Week 1. By the advanced usage stats — his 83.1% snap share (RB4), 76.6% route share (RB1), and 22.8 XFP (RB2, thanks to 7 targets and 2 of 3 backfield carries inside the 5-yard line) — he appeared to be the elite RB1 you drafted. But why did Tyler Allgeier get 45% of the backfield’s carries? Take a deep breath. You may not remember, but this also happened at the start of last season; this coaching staff gave Allgeier 38% of the carries over the first six weeks of 2024. But over the final 11 games, Robinson averaged 22.6 FPG (RB1) on 20.0 XFP/G (RB1), with Allgeier relegated to a 27% carry share change-of-pace back from that point on. My guess — aside from coaching staff overtures in service of “keeping Robinson fresh” I suspect we’ll hear every year of his career, before predictably handing him a featured bellcow role at the first sign of trouble for the offense — is that many RBs of the “big bruiser” archetype simply look more appealing to NFL coaching staffs in training camp and in practice than they prove to in real game action, resulting in outsized opportunity shares early in the season before ceding work to their more elusive and explosive counterparts. That’s also apparent in our next backfield, but it means I’m not really concerned about Robinson for the time being. If Allgeier begins subbing in for him regularly at the goal line or is still getting half the carries in Week 8, I’ll revisit.

• Breece Hall ain’t dead yet. In fact, he’s looking like one of the better middle-round picks you could have made at the RB position. How is this possible? For starters, it looks like my conspiracy theory about Hall playing injured for all of last year could be correct. To that point, Brett Whitefield had to say, “I owe this man an apology. He looks unbelievable.” Hall smashed his 2024 high in yards after contact, forced 5 missed tackles (second to only Chase Brown on the day), and averaged 5.63 YPC (4th-best). At the same time, Braelon Allen looked dreadful, losing yardage on half his carries, amassing just 7 yards after contact, and averaging just 1.50 YPC. Perhaps that’s less surprising than it should have been — Allen ranked dead-last in explosive play rate last season behind plodders like Gus Edwards and Kareem Hunt. I expect Hall’s usage next week to be better than last week’s, but even so, it’s worth noting he received the only backfield rush attempt inside the 5-yard line, and ended the day with a 70% backfield carry share (compared to 67.4% in his active games last year). Whether he ultimately ends up being a strong pick this season depends largely on whether the Jets can repeat their inspiring offensive performance in subsequent weeks (as I discuss in the playcaller section below, early signs are promising). I’d view him as an RB2 against the Bills next week, but now prefer him to players like Kenneth Walker rest-of-season.

• The offseason of positive coachspeak for Trey Benson seems not to have been a mirage. He was involved throughout Sunday’s game on a rotational basis with James Conner, siphoning off 40% off backfield carries. Benson averaged just 2.4 YPC outside of his big 52-yard run, but that probably earned him a few more carries per game moving forward. Conner was still preferred near the goal line (2 of 3 touches inside the 10) and in the passing game (14% target share, 45.9% route share), but a genuinely involved Benson means his season-long upside will be much more capped than it was last year. He’s barely a top-24 option at the position moving forward, while Benson would immediately be a top-18 weekly option if anything were to happen to Conner.

• Jonathan Taylor amassed a 91.1% snap share (would have led all RBs on the week) and 18.9 XFP (RB4) through only three quarters. The Colts won’t find positive game script as easily against non-Dolphins teams, but this was very encouraging despite the disappointing 12.8 actual PPR points and a brutal touchdown vulture from Daniel Jones at the goal line. The more interesting performance here was from Taylor’s now-confirmed handcuff D.J. Giddens, who took over at the end of the game after Taylor left the blowout with a minor injury (that doesn’t sound concerning). Giddens stepped directly into Taylor’s role for the 4th quarter, amassing an 85.7% snap share and 9 of 10 backfield carries. Giddens should be rostered in all 12-team leagues.

• Omarion Hampton had an uninspiring debut as a rusher, averaging just 3.20 YPC, getting stuffed on 60% of his carries, and seeing just 1.13 yards before contact per attempt (would have ranked 44th of 46 qualifying RBs last year). But this doesn’t concern me in the slightest; after all, in their previous game, this Chiefs’ run defense limited Saquon Barkley to just 2.28 YPC, stuffed him 76.0% of the time, and allowed just 1.08 yards before contact per attempt. Hampton played an 80.6% snap share (RB7 on the week), ran a route on over half the Chargers’ dropbacks, and ceded only one carry to Najee Harris. Even if Harris becomes a bit more involved after another week of practice after he missed most of training camp, the fact that the Chargers were willing to pay Hampton this much at all is a massively bullish signal; they easily could have thrust him into a committee with Hassan Haskins or any other warm body for a week, as we frequently see teams do with rookies. I’m still considering Hampton a fringe top-12 option against the Raiders in Week 2 and rest-of-season.

• Isiah Pacheco remains in a full-blown committee (like at the tail end of 2024), with Kareem Hunt receiving 4 of 6 valuable snaps inside the 10-yard line (67%). That number was 55% from Weeks 13-17 last year, an ugly split that meant no Chiefs RB averaged more than 6.5 XFP/G over that stretch. No Chiefs RB is startable until this and the three-way snap split (48.3%-39.7%-13.8%) between Pacheco, Hunt, and rookie Brashard Smith changes.

• Javonte Williams scores 15.8 fantasy points on a 78% snap share in the first half. I meet it with skepticism. In the third quarter, Miles Sanders rips off a 49-yard run on just his second carry of the game. I say to myself, "Welp, Javonte was fun while it lasted." Sanders stays in on the drive, gets a carry, gets another carry, and… fumbles it. I say to myself, "Welp, Sanders was fun while it lasted." Williams ultimately finished the night with an 80% snap share, 71% route share, and 16.8 XFP — the usage of a bonafide fantasy RB1. But I want to be cautious here. 6.3 of Williams' 16.8 expected fantasy points (and 12.2 of his 20.4 actual fantasy points) came inside the five-yard line. For comparison, no RB (min. 6 games) averaged more than 4.2 XFP/G inside the 5 last season. Cowboys RBs as a whole averaged just 2.1. The Cowboys ran the ball on 5 of 6 plays inside the red zone (83%, not including a DPI that CeeDee Lamb drew right before a Williams TD). That number for the Cowboys was just 39.9% last year (26th). The Eagles led the NFL in that stat with 62.4% in 2024. To make a long blurb short, it's unlikely any backfield sustains the amount of red zone volume Williams benefitted from in a game where the Eagles immediately lost their best defensive player. Williams still averaged just 3.6 YPC, forcing zero missed tackles on 15 attempts. For now, I’m viewing Williams as a low-end RB2, though he’ll likely project closer to a top-18 option in Week 2 against a Giants defense that ranked as a top-5 schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs last season, and got carved up by Jacorey Croskey-Merritt for 8.2 YPC last week. If rookie Jaydon Blue gets activated next week to punish Sanders for his fumble, I’ll be watching his snap and route shares closely.

• While the Lions’ offense may have changed for the worse, Jahmyr Gibbs’ role seems to have changed for the better, as we’d wishcasted predicted this offseason. Gibbs commanded 64.6% of the Lions’ snaps and ran a route on over 60% of the team’s dropbacks. He’d beaten the former number just twice before across 26 previous career games alongside a healthy David Montgomery, and the latter number in just one of those 26 games. I don’t care at all that Montgomery out-carried Gibbs, because Gibbs got the only carry inside the 10-yard line and amassed the 3rd-most XFP of any RB this week (18.9). This backfield was split almost perfectly 50/50 by XFP last year, with Gibbs averaging only 15.3 XFP/G (but 21.4 actual FPG). In other words, if Gibbs maintains his 2024 efficiency but sees the workload he did in Week 1, he’d average 26.4 FPG this year…that’s probably not going to happen without Ben Johnson, but the role shift (with the major caveat being that this was a negative game script) makes me feel confident in Gibbs’ ability to survive this offense’s efficiency regression.

• Dylan Sampson probably doesn’t have much chance of ever capturing the goal-line role, considering the Browns instead gave UDFA Raheim Sanders a shot there just 11 days after he joined the team. But I do think Sampson’s receiving game role could stick after he commanded a 17.8% target share on just 29% route participation. His eight receptions tied Tarik Cohen’s record for the most in an RB’s first career game. Quinshon Judkins finally signed his (fully guaranteed) rookie contract shortly before Week 1, so I expect him to begin mixing in on early downs soon. I’d be happy to roster either Browns rookie. Jerome Ford (just two carries in the 2nd half) is droppable. The only awkward thing here is that Sampson ran 12 of his 14 routes on 1st and 2nd down, and played only one snap on 3rd and 5+ — Ford was clearly the trusted option as a pass protector. As long as that’s the case, only one of the rookies will be able to see significant playing time. I’ll be watching if and how these roles shift in Week 2 closely.

• Josh Jacobs finished top-3 in snap share (89.1%), received 19 of 21 backfield carries, and ran a route on over half the team’s dropbacks. In other words, his role is still awesome and he’ll project as a low-end RB1 in expected positive gamescripts. And that could be more often than I expected this year, based on how the Packers’ defense looked in Week 1. They’re favored in every lookahead line over the next eight weeks.

• Tony Pollard led all RBs in snap share (89.1%) and captured an elite 84% of the Titans’ backfield XFP. He led the team in both rushing and receiving yards. The problem is that amounted to only 89 total YFS and 8.9 fantasy points, as Cam Ward struggled to move the ball in his NFL debut against a fierce Broncos pass rush that pressured him on 41.2% of his dropbacks (8th-most) and limited him to just 1.82 ANY/A (2nd-worst ahead of only Tua Tagovailoa). Pollard now averages an 85% snap shrae and 16.6 XFP/G across six games without Tyjae Spears over the past two seasons, but he’s underperformed his XFP in all but one game, and exceeded 15.0 fantasy points just twice in that split. Until we see Ward take a leap, Pollard can’t be considered more than a FLEX play in matchups like Week 2 against the Rams as a 5.5-point underdog.

• Though Kenneth Gainwell narrowly led in snaps, Jaylen Warren led this gross three-way split Steelers backfield with 12.0 XFP (61%), mostly thanks to seeing 100% of backfield snaps and touches inside the 10-yard line. Gainwell (7.4 XFP, 37%) narrowly led in routes (13 to 8) but was on the lower end of the early-down rushing split. And then there’s Kaleb Johnson, who played only two snaps. I have only two takes here: 1) Nobody from this backfield is startable until there’s a usage shift, and 2) I won’t pretend to know what Arthur Smith will do, but per the blanket patience I’m preaching with rookies, you need to hold Johnson for at least a few weeks. It could take a while, though, considering he fumbled a kickoff.

• TreVeyon Henderson played just 33.8% of the Patriots’ snaps, but he easily cleared Rhamondre Stevenson in both XFP (13.0) and fantasy points (7.8) while out-gaining him on the ground despite two fewer carries (5.40 to 2.14 YPC). Henderson was targeted on an absurd (for an RB) 35% of his routes. Stevenson played every snap inside the 10-yard line, but I expect this efficiency gap to continue, and for these roles to shift over the course of the season as Henderson continues to establish himself. You definitely can’t be pessimistic about six targets in a rookie RB’s debut.

• As I mentioned above, Travis Etienne was the Jaguars’ clear lead back, playing two-thirds of the snaps, running a route on just under half of the team’s dropbacks, and and rumbling for 143 rushing yards (2nd-most on the week behind Derrick Henry) against an apparently still hapless Panthers’ run defense. He was likely playing banged up through much of last season, and looked much more explosive in Week 1; he had 88 rushing yards on plays of 15 or more this past week. That number was just 106 across all of last season. Etienne looks to be a top-24 weekly option at RB for the immediate future. However, I would caution that Etienne has sort of done this in each of the past two seasons, always having a very efficient September before injuries, wear-and-tear, or otherwise sap his efficiency very quickly after the start of the year.

• Ashton Jeanty immediately saw an elite 85.5% snap share (RB2 on the week) and an even more elite 91% of backfield XFP. However, he was targeted only twice and ran a route on just under half of the Raiders’ dropbacks (48.7%), a slight problem given the team’s surprisingly high +11.0% pass rate over expectation in Week 1 (4th-highest). This could have been gameplan-specific (as the Patriots were without Christian Gonzalez, and their secondary looked otherwise easy to burn), but I’d want to see the team commit to either a more run-heavy approach or involve Jeanty more as a receiver before I’d feel much different about him as a weekly start than someone like Josh Jacobs. For now, he’s a high-end RB2.

• Chuba Hubbard still had an elite 80% of backfield carries (compared to 73% last year), both carries inside the 10-yard line, and a 14.3% target share (better than his 10.7% last year). But under the hood, his former bellcow role doesn’t seem quite as elite. He saw just 65.6% of the team’s snaps (vs. 77.8% in 2024) and ran a route on only 40% of their dropbacks (vs. 55%), with Rico Dowdle playing as the clear 3rd-down back (12 snaps and 8 routes to Hubbard’s 5 and 3), across all downs commanding three targets on only three fewer routes than Hubbard. Hubbard’s fantasy points (17.9) outperformed his final XFP total (15.1). All of this suggests to me that Hubbard will still be amazing in games the Panthers are able to move the ball (he averaged an elite 22.5 XFP/G and 26.9 FPG in their wins last year), but he’s likely to be a lot less useful than he was in Week 1 when the team struggles to move the ball. He might be a sell-high if you can pry a player like Breece Hall or Josh Jacobs for him.

• I’m worried about De’Von Achane to the extent that I’m worried about the Dolphins’ offense. He saved his day by averaging 7.8 yards per carry and breaking several tackles after catching a swing pass for a score, but he totaled just 8.4 XFP on the day because of the offense’s inability to move the ball otherwise. If this team is a dumpster fire, Achane’s ceiling probably caps out at something similar to his 2024 season (17.6 FPG mostly accumulated via his PPR scam) rather than the league-winning ceiling I’d envisioned in the scenario that the Dolphins got back to their 2023 offensive success. Ollie Gordon got the backfield’s only carry inside the 10-yard line, but that’s a role that oscillated between Mostert and Achane throughout last season, and Achane did also see a carry and play 5 of 6 snaps in short-yardage situations, so I’m not panicking on that front. I’d expect Mike McDaniel to dial up several more screens and easy-button touches for Achane after the offensive embarrassment that occurred without them; to that point, all four of Achane’s targets came in the 2nd half of this game. Right now, I’d view him as a lower-end RB1.

• Though Aaron Jones caught a touchdown on a route out of the backfield and similarly drew a DPI earlier in the game, he otherwise looked pretty awful, averaging just 2.9 YPC. Jordan Mason was much more effective on the ground, opening the season with a higher snap share (57.1%) and more carries (15 to 8) than Jones, while running only three fewer routes and playing 100% of the red zone snaps (on which he got all three backfield carries). I’d expect the near-50/50 XFP split to move in Mason’s favor over the season, putting him in the FLEX discussion in expected positive game scripts. The Vikings are favored in each of their next four games before the bye.

• Derrick Henry is still Derrick Henry, averaging a hilarious +20.3 FPOE. I’m feeling great about my prediction that Henry has a real shot at breaking LaDainian Tomlinson’s touchdown record this year.

• James Cook played an encouraging 57.7% snap share, which would have been his 3rd-best mark last season. He still ran only two routes on 3rd downs (with Ty Johnson remaining in that role), but if his improved route share (46.2% in Week 1 compared to just 35.2% last year) built on early downs proves sticky, he could prove a much better pick than I initially expected this year. That paid instant dividends in the form of 5 targets, more than Cook saw in 13 of his 16 games last season. He’s in the top-18 mix rest-of-season, but he could have a massive September and October; the Bills are favored by 5.5 or more points in each of their next six games.

• Bucky Irving finished top-5 in fantasy points per snap last year (0.50) on a measly 45.2% snap share. In Week 1, his snap share jumped to 76.8%. Basically, if he kept efficiency (massive “if”) and had this snap share last year, he would have averaged an insane 25.7 FPG. So we have to consider him a major winner after he just saw among the best usage of his career, amassing 83% of the backfield’s carries and weighted opportunities as well as both backfield touches inside the 10-yard line. For perspective, Irving only hit an 80%+ carry share in two games last year, but averaged 20.9 FPG (~RB3) on 16.9 XFP/G (~RB7) in six healthy post-bye games at the end of the season. He’s a top-10 RB for the rest of the season, and I’d be happy to buy for that price if his manager is scared.

• D’Andre Swift was in a surprising bellcow role, amassing 18.2 XFP by seeing all 17 RB carries (with DJ Moore seeing 3) and running most of the backfield’s routes, resulting in a 14.3% target share. These are fantasy RB1 usage numbers, but this comes with two major caveats: 1) Swift was very inefficient on all this work, averaging just 3.1 YPC and seeing -8.7 FPOR, and 2) Roschon Johnson didn’t play with a hamstring injury. I wouldn’t move Swift up the ranks just yet.

Wide Receivers

• Keon Coleman is one of Week 1’s biggest winners, running a route on 82.7% of the Bills’ dropbacks (the same as Khalil Shakir, and a number he reached only three times last season) while commanding an elite 20.1 XFP and a 34.6% first-read target share in this shootout. This was a major departure from the WR-by-committee we’ve seen the Bills and OC Joe Brady run with before. I didn’t think this would happen, but I’m willing to shift my priors quickly at the first sign of this Year 2 breakout. Just don’t go too crazy — the Bills won’t be in an extreme shootout/negative game script every week, nor will Coleman make a habit of catching deflected TD passes. But he’s now an appealing stacking partner with Josh Allen in DFS, and is in the mix as a top-30 WR in Week 2 against the Jets.

• Garrett Wilson ranked 5th-best in target share (36.4%). That was more or less expected. What wasn’t expected was that for once, Wilson’s elite volume actually turned into fantasy points (22.5), with Brett Whitefield being impressed enough by the film to say that Wilson and Justin Fields look like league-winners. This Jets’ offense could be a mirage, but as I discuss below, everything aside from the pass rate (for Wilson specifically) looks incredibly bullish. I also love that Wilson’s slot rate increased from 32.5% last season to 54.2% in Week 1 — cheatcode usage that lets him escape elite outside coverage CBs (like the Steelers’ Joey Porter Jr.), which we’ve seen players like Ja’Marr Chase massively benefit from in recent seasons.

• Travis Hunter led the Jaguars in targets (8) and ran a 75.8% route share, with 76% of his routes coming from the slot. He also led the team with 3 designed targets. In other words, this is the “Chris Godwin role”, exactly as Ryan Heath predicted. The possibility remains that his offensive and defensive snap shares could fluctuate this season depending on the team’s game plan, but Trevor Lawrence appeared to need all the help he could get in Week 1, so I don’t think a defensive pivot is imminent. I remain very high on Hunter, and would be buying if he’s available for non-top-24 WR prices.

• Only 3 of Brian Thomas Jr.’s 7 targets were catchable, the 2nd-lowest rate ahead of only Jauan Jennings in Week 1. None of his four targets past the sticks were graded as “on-target.” I remain a believer in Liam Coen and am giving this passing offense a few weeks to pop, but man, would I hate to be proven correct about Trevor Lawrence.

• The Chargers recorded a +13.5% pass rate over expectation (PROE) in Week 1. That’s more pass-heavy than they were in any single game last season. It’s only one week, but this is a very strong signal that they’ll continue to lean pass-heavy this season; only 12 teams had even a single game of a 13.5% PROE in 2024, and 9 of them finished in the top half of the league. So the arrow is pointing up for all of Keenan Allen (who recorded a strong 31% TPRR on a 78% route share), Quentin Johnston (who scored two TDs — on on a busted coverage, of course — and and unsustainable 24.9 fantasy points on just 12.6 XFP), and even Ladd McConkey, who led the team in targets (9) and XFP (15.2) on non-busted coverages and ran a higher percentage of his routes from the slot (50%) than Allen (44%). As usual, he posted by far the best ASS on the team (or of any player through the Friday night game). McConkey remains a low-end WR1, while both Allen and Johnston are in WR3 consideration against the Raiders in Week 2.

• A.J. Brown (hamstring) pretty clearly wasn’t fully healthy in Week 1, failing to record a single route win. Devonta Smith, who recorded a similarly poor 4.6 fantasy points on just a 9% TPRR, also dealt with a groin injury in late August. I’ll be pretty concerned if both receivers post similar usage in Week 2 (after 10 full days of rest), but I’m not panicking yet — especially because this Cover 3 and zone-heavy schematic matchup massively favored Dallas Goedert. Potentially of greater concern is new Eagles OC Kevin Patullo’s overall ineffectiveness (more on this below).

• Xavier Worthy was injured by his own teammate (sound familiar?) very early in Week 1. This resulted in Hollywood Brown amassing a 40% first-read target share and 16 total targets, the most he’s seen in any game since Week 3 of 2022. I’m not convinced this is how the Chiefs would have operated their offense if given a full week to gameplan without Worthy, but 23.2 XFP on a 52% slot rate and a 5.6 aDOT is probably the closest thing we’ll see to the “Rashee Rice role” until he returns in Week 7. That means Brown is in consideration as a top-30 weekly option for as long as Worthy and Rice remain out. But most of all, you should interpret this as confirmation that Rashee Rice will smash as soon as he returns.

• Kavontae Turpin ran a route on 46.8% of the Cowboys’ dropbacks in his first game under new HC Brian Schottenheimer, the same number as Jalen Tolbert. Turpin was frequently used in motion and only produced 2 receptions for 18 yards on 2 targets, but I think he’s a genuinely interesting deep stash. Our resident UFL expert Jake Tribbey has long referred to him as the “Tyreek Hill of the UFL”, a comparison Cris Collinsworth echoed on the broadcast. Per Jake, Turpin has “insane agility” and is “a much better Darren Sproles comparison than Jaydon Blue.” Perhaps Turpin is ultimately just a better version of Isaiah McKenzie, but even McKenzie eventually put together a handful of games above 75 receiving yards over his career. CeeDee Lamb looks like a PPR cheatcode (again), but George Pickens is also a sneaky winner, having run a horizontal-breaker (an efficiency cheatcode) on 53% of routes.

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba looks like a league-winner. He led all WRs in Week 1 by *deep breath*…first-read target share (66.7%), receiving YMS (82.7%), TPRR (0.62), expected fantasy points per route run (1.03), THREAT rate (65.0%), and probably any other usage stat you can think of while ranking top-5 in total XFP (21.7) and getting downfield (13.7 aDOT). In hindsight, it may have been a miscalculation to not assume JSN was the only target-earner on this team. Cooper Kupp continues to look giga-washed.

• Despite how productive the Colts’ offense was, Week 1 couldn’t have gone much worse for Josh Downs, who ran just a 48.5% route share (7 fewer routes than Tyler Warren) due to the Colts surprisingly conducting only 52% of their dropbacks from 11 personnel (down from 78%). We’ll see if this changes in Week 2 (Downs entered the year with a hamstring injury, so this may prove an anomaly), but if this is how the Colts want to play, Downs doesn’t have a path to being fantasy-viable.

• Kayshon Boutte led the Patriots in route participation (75.5%), air yards (138), and XFP (15.2). Stefon Diggs finished 4th in route participation (62.3%) but did slightly outstrip Boutte by TPRR (0.21). However, I’m very open to the idea that Boutte is the Patriots’ #1 WR. He was once considered a Round 1-caliber prospect and led an LSU team that included Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. in receiving yards. He’s a clear add off waivers.

• With Christian Kirk out, Jayden Higgins (38.2% route share) still played behind both Xavier Hutchinson (64.7%) and Jaylin Noel (41.2%). Noel’s playing time in the slot was probably more the result of Kirk’s absence.

• No Green Bay WR ran more than a 65.2% route share (Romeo Doubs), with Matthew Golden finishing 5th on the team in routes and rotating on the outside with Dontayvion Wicks, much like Christian Watson did last year. In other words, this WR rotation is as gross as ever and contains no viable fantasy starters until we begin to see signs the Packers want to throw more.

• Jakobi Meyers looks like a massive ADP-beater for what feels like the 5th year in a row. His 17.7 fantasy points on 15.5 XFP and a 28% TPRR were solid, but even more exciting to me was his elevated slot rate (58.3%, up from 33.2% last year) and rate of horizontally-breaking routes (50.0%, up from 32.8%). Raiders rookie Dont’e Thornton led the team in air yards (100) despite running only the 4th-most routes on the team (behind Meyers, Tre Tucker, and Brock Bowers).

• Through the first 10 weeks of the 2024 season (before the Ravens’ defense began leading the NFL in every category), Zay Flowers averaged 15.3 FPG (~WR15) in his healthy games and exceeded 18.0 PPR points a whopping five times, fewer than only Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown. That’s because he’s one of the best separators in the NFL, but we don’t always see that reflected in the box score since the Ravens threw the ball the fewest times of any team from 2023-24. So when a team like the Bills pushes them into a shootout, expect fireworks. Flowers is an elite DFS option in any games where we expect a high pass rate, but more of a boom-or-bust WR3 when the Ravens are big favorites, like in Week 2 against the Browns.

• Tyreek Hill hasn’t had more than 30 yards after the catch in a game since Week 1 of 2024. He’s also broken 0 tackles in that span. Both Hill and Jaylen Waddle missed time in this game, which left Malik Washington to lead the team in route share (72.2%) and — notably — designed targets (2). He’d be the biggest beneficiary of a Hill trade or crashout, and should be scooped from any dynasty waiver wires.

• Deebo Samuel (17.3) easily cleared Terry McLaurin (5.9) in XFP, and got hyper-valuable usage in the slot (75.9% slot rate), complete with designed targets (2) and a red zone rush attempt he punched in from 19 yards out. He also led in first-read target share (36.4%). Remember, holdout WRs often take several weeks to redevelop chemistry with their QBs. Until McLaurin is up to speed (and possibly beyond that), Samuel should challenge for top-24 status at the position.

• I wrote more thoughts on the Lions’ offense in the playcallers section below, but from a usage perspective, both Amon-Ra St. Brown (7.7 XFP, 23.8% first-read target share) and Jameson Williams (8.2 XFP, 9.5% first-read target share) disappointed in a negative game script that would have been amazing for them in 2024. I will note that we didn’t see much of a shift in slot usage as some theorized this offseason, with St. Brown running 59% of his routes from inside to Williams’ 31%.

• Would you ever have guessed that the Saints would have three pass-catchers (Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Juwan Johnson) amass over 18.0 XFP in Week 1? Me neither! But maybe we shouldn’t be surprised, as Kellen Moore is one of the most creative and fast-paced playcallers in the game (expanded upon below). We’ll need a little more improvement from Spencer Rattler (52.2% highly accurate throw rate, 8th-worst) to see that volume turn into actual fantasy points, but the Saints could be interesting DFS options in Week 2 against the 49ers. Both Olave and Shaheed can be considered top-36 weekly WR options if this usage keeps up.

• Calvin Austin saw the same number of first reads as DK Metcalf (6 each), with Austin finishing 2nd on the team in routes and moving outside when Jonnu Smith or Pat Freirmuth entered the slot. He could be a cheap “PPR scam” option in pressure-heavy or underneath-funnel matchups like the Jets were in Week 1; Aaron Rodgers’ 4.2 aDOT tied for the lowest among all QBs in Week 1.

Tight Ends

• If Travis Kelce doesn’t get a 25-35% target share next week, I think he’s just turbo-washed. (Or fully being preserved until the postseason.) Kelce saw just 4 targets in Week 1, 10 fewer than Marquise Brown, 1 fewer than JuJu Smith-Schuster, and tied with Tyquan Thornton. You might remember that last year Kelce averaged just a 12.0% target share (TE28) across Rice’s 3 full games, but after that, his target share jumped to 23.8% (TE2). According to the broadcast it seemed as though Andy Reid planned on Xavier Worthy being the focal point in Week 1, and then Hollywood Brown had to step into that role, walking away with a Week 1-high 10 catches. Now, going into the week with full knowledge they’ll be without Rice and Worthy, don’t be surprised if Kelce is the one to take over the Rashee Rice-role.

• More Coming Soon

Offenses / Play-Callers / Team Environments

As an overall note, Week 1 is the new preseason, especially for new playcallers installing their systems with new players. Please don’t take the below as conclusive teardowns or pedestal-hoistings for the playcallers and players I name here. These are more “things to keep an eye on” than “the answers to which offenses will be efficient in 2025.”

Lions: In 2024 under previous OC Ben Johnson, the Lions ranked 2nd in the NFL in dropback during-snap motion rate (34.7%) and led in play action rate (38.6%). In Week 1 under new OC John Morton, those rates fell to just 18th (14.0%) and 11th (25.6%), respectively. In other words, I think it’s real that the Lions could experience a serious downgrade in playcalling and offensive efficiency this year. One of our data charters I spoke to came to a similar conclusion, calling the offense he saw this weekend “vanilla” with “much less creativity in concepts.” This is seriously concerning for Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams (who the same charter noted wasn’t used on as favorable of concepts as Gibbs, St. Brown, and LaPorta). But again, this was only Week 1, and as I noted this offseason, HC Dan Campbell also seems well aware of playcalling cheatcodes. I want to track this situation as the season goes on.

Dolphins: Part of me wants to make the devil's advocate argument that Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De’Von Achane were all hurt coming into this game and throughout most of August. And then, both Hill and Waddle got hurt mid-game. Maybe missed practice time accounts for why we saw massive dropoffs in HC Mike McDaniel’s dropback during-snap motion rate (from 42.3% to 19.4%) and play action rate (from 27.0% to 16.7%) from 2024 to Week 1. Notably, they also ran just 46 total offensive plays (fewest among all teams) after averaging 66.6 last year (9th-most). I doubt McDaniel simply forgot all of these offensive cheatcodes…so I’m cautiously willing to see what he draws up against the Patriots in Week 2 before declaring this offense dead. Probably of greater concern is the scenario in which he fully loses the locker room (if that hasn’t already happened) and gets fired, but perhaps Dolphins OC Frank Smith would then just force-feed his star players to keep them happy…whatever the case, I’m not giving up on the Dolphins yet, and even if the team continues to play ugly, they could still wind up scoring fantasy points while constantly in trailing game scripts. I just hope McDaniel has a counter-punch to the below stat.

Texans: I may have been wrong about Texans OC Nick Caley, who I thought might introduce even more play action to the offense to the benefit of Nico Collins. That’s easier said than done with Houston’s current stable of running backs, but the team regressing from a 26.5% play action rate in 2024 under Bobby Slowik to 17.6% in Week 1 under Caley isn’t a positive sign.

Eagles: New OC Kevin Patullo’s play action and during snap motion rates (21.2% and 9.1%, respectively) were notably lower than former OC Kellen Moore’s (27.1% and 17.0%). But both of the Eagles’ top-2 WRs may have entered this game somewhat injured, the pace got entirely killed by the weather delay, and the Cowboys presented an incredibly weird schematic game plan, playing zero snaps of man coverage. So I really want to see how this offense looks in Week 2, but I’m slightly worried.

Seahawks: I would never have thought that Klint Kubiak would rank dead-last in play-action rate. But the run game didn’t really get going at all outside of one drive, so he gets a mulligan from me here, too. And based on HC Mike MacDonald’s post-game quotes (via the Coachspeak Index Discord), it sounds like the team will be making several adjustments, including running more outside zone than they did in Week 1 (just 32% of their rush attempts, while Kubiak’s last two offenses were above 40%). I overall expect a much different game plan in Week 2, which is part of why I’m withholding some judgment on the backfield for now.

Rams: For fantasy purposes, we saw the same hyper-condensed Rams offense we’ve grown accustomed to, with Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Kyren Williams, and no one else receiving usable volume. That makes it a great spot to attack in DFS when the offense works. The new wrinkle is that Matthew Stafford was under center more often than usual, putting on a clinic with those opportunities.

Jets: I may have underestimated Jets OC Tanner Engstrand, at least based on one game. This offense ranked top-10 in during-snap motion rate in Week 1, with Brett Whitefield remarking that “the Jets looked way more like the Lions than the Lions.” The team ranked dead-last in PROE (-17.8%), which was somewhat expected, but is also a positive indicator for Breece Hall after he was clearly their most-effective runner. This was a great start.

Bengals: Every Bengals stat from Week 1 must be understood within the context of them running only 49 offensive plays (down from 63.5 per game last year) and posting just a +2.7% PROE (down from a league-high +11.9% last year). I’m going to assume Cleveland just owns them — Joe Burrow averages less than 200 passing YPG over his last seven games against the Browns — and expect both the pace and pass rate to increase as soon as Week 2 against the Jaguars.

Packers: In a positive game script, this team ran only 47 offensive plays (ahead of only the Dolphins). They averaged 63.3 last year. They posted just a +0.5% PROE, compared to +3.6% in Jordan Love’s pre-groin injury starts last year. Not coming out aggressively pass-heavy against the Lions was slightly surprising to me, but maybe the Packers will try to win closer to how they did at the tail end of last season — at least for the first half of this year, when they’re favored in every lookahead line. The late-offseason addition of Micah Parsons could support their success in this endeavor.

Browns: The Browns ran 71 pass + run plays (tied 3rd-most) and came out pass-leaning with a +4.5% PROE. In other words, they did pretty much exactly what we’ve always seen when Kevin Stefanski has a competent QB under center. This passing game will be good for fantasy as long as Flacco starts.

Falcons: The Falcons also ran 71 plays in Week 1 (tied 3rd-most). Playcaller Zac Robinson ranked top-5 in during-snap motion rate (34.0%), similar to what we saw last season (31.3%). What we didn’t see (at least so far) was the increase in under-center dropbacks I theorized for Michael Penix, nor a higher play-action rate; Penix took just one snap from under center all game. But that may not ultimately matter if the team is willing to play this fast, especially if their defense starts to struggle like it did last year.

Raiders: I’m now more bullish on Chip Kelly and this passing game, after the Raiders came out ranking middle of the pack in total pass + run plays (62) and weren’t shy about continually taking advantage of a Patriots’ secondary that struggles without Christian Gonzalez, to the tune of a +11.0% PROE. He utilized play-action at a top-10 rate, on which Geno Smith went 10-of-11 for 10.4 YPA (with the only incompletion being an ill-advised throw into double coverage that resulted in an interception). We’ll see if he remains this aggressive against better opposing pass defenses like the Chargers’ in Week 2, but both Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers’ arrows (injury notwithstanding) are pointing up.

Saints: Kellen Moore deserves some love here for his continually elite pace of play (the Saints ran the 7th-most plays in Week 1) and for ramping up his usage of during-snap motion even higher than it was with the Eagles last season (from 17.6% to 22.4%). Even with Spencer Rattler under center, the Saints had several sustained drives and could have made the final score even closer if not for a missed field goal, with the team still having a chance to tie or win the game with the offense in the red zone on the final four plays.

Buccaneers: The Buccaneers did come out pass-heavy (+8.0% PROE), but we saw a massive dropoff in during-snap motion rate from Liam Coen in 2024 (20.4%) to new OC Josh Grizzard in Week 1 (5.4%). Again, I’m not going to fully skewer a new playcaller in their first week without the team’s star left tackle, but this is something to pay attention to regarding the upside and efficiency of all players on this offense.

Vikings: The team posted a -10.8% PROE, the lowest of any single game in the Kevin O’Connell era. But frankly, it worked to get the ground game going with Jordan Mason and set J.J. McCarthy up to make some great throws in the final 1.5 quarters. Their red zone pass rate also decreased to just 42.9% (19th in Week 1), after O’Connell’s teams had perennially ranked top-5. Considering this plan worked, I’d expect the Vikings to be a bit less pass-heavy over the early part of the year than we’re used to. But I’d also expect them to ratchet things up over the season the more comfortable McCarthy continues to look, especially after Jordan Addison returns.

Bears: In Ben Johnson’s first game as an HC, his offense showed a 28% play-action dropback rate (down from 39% with the Lions in 2024) and a 30% during-snap motion rate on dropbacks (down from 35%). However, these numbers still ranked top-10 and top-5 (respectively) among offenses in Week 1, so we can be assured he’s brought all of his cheat codes with him to Chicago. Caleb Williams looked much less comfortable after the first drive, but in fairness, the above two numbers demonstrate he has a lot more on his plate than he did as a rookie. It will probably take more than one week for this offense to reach its full potential.

XFP per Team Play Leaderboard

1. Malik Nabers, WR (0.42)

2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR (0.42)

3. Christian McCaffrey, RB (0.40)

4. Marquise Brown, WR (0.39)

5. CeeDee Lamb, WR (0.38)

6. Drake London, WR (0.37)

7. Zay Flowers, WR (0.34)

8. Bijan Robinson, RB (0.28)

9. Puka Nacua, WR (0.29)

10. Saquon Barkley, RB (0.28)

11. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB (0.28)

12. Javonte Williams, RB (0.28)