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Arizona Cardinals
Among 100 qualifying WRs and TEs, Marvin Harrison Jr. saw the 4th-highest share of his targets on the outside (89%) rather than over the middle of the field. Only Jahan Dotson, Amari Cooper, and George Pickens saw a larger percentage of their targets coming outside.
That’s pretty bad, considering that targets over the middle are on average worth about 22% more yards than targets on the outside, especially after TE Trey McBride just vacuumed up the highest first-read target share by a TE in Fantasy Points Data history (33.6%) in that over-the-middle role.
Average yards per target on outside throws:
— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) May 27, 2025
2024: 7.6
2023: 7.7
2022: 7.7
2021: 7.6
Average yards per target on over-the-middle throws:
2024: 9.3
2023: 9.0
2022: 9.3
2021: 9.1
A target over the middle is worth roughly ~22% more than a target on the outside.
Zooming in further, Corner and Go routes alone made up nearly a third of Harrison’s route tree as a rookie, his frequency of each ranking above the 74th percentile. And these were by far his two worst routes from a separation perspective, ranking below the 30th percentile on each by Average Separation Score.
Harrison’s strengths on in-breaking routes and over the middle simply weren’t highlighted during his rookie season. Even after the team favorably adjusted his usage on crossers, his receiving yards per game (YPG) average increased only slightly, from 49.4 to 55.9.
The Cardinals haven’t signed any additional receivers with a history of playing this field-stretcher role and have given no indication they intend to change Harrison’s deployment after retaining the same head coach and play caller. I’ll be generally fading Harrison in favor of players like Davante Adams, Tee Higgins, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, or Rashee Rice.
Atlanta Falcons
Across the full 2024 season, Drake London led the NFL in end zone target share, seeing 56% of the Falcons’ end zone targets.
London also commanded six end zone looks across Michael Penix’s three starts. In other words, London averaged 117.3 receiving YPG and 2.0 end zone targets per game with Penix, paces that would have led all WRs over the past four seasons.
Given Penix’s affinity for the deep ball (throwing 20+ yards downfield at the NFL’s 6th-highest rate), the Falcons’ suspect defense, and their only other pass-catcher over six feet tall in Kyle Pitts falling to a career-low 67.4% route participation rate last season, London strikes me as one of the better bets to reach double-digit TDs in 2025.
