Statistically Significant: First Downs per RR

Last offseason, I introduced many of you to first downs per route run (1D/RR), a slept-on alternative efficiency metric to the more commonly used yards per route run (YPRR).

Though both stats provide similar information (gauging the skill of a WR) and are great for predicting breakouts, 1D/RR is quantifiably more stable and better at predicting next year’s fantasy points. Last year, it could have helped you avoid “YPRR traps” like Jayden Reed and Deebo Samuel.

For the uninitiated, 1D/RR is calculated by simply dividing a player’s total first downs by the total number of routes they ran. First downs are a measure of a receiver’s ability to execute their route, earn a target, and convert it into a high-value reception that advances their team’s field position. Good receivers will do this more often, so when we divide by total routes to control for the volume of opportunities, we are left with an all-encompassing measure of WR skill and effectiveness.

Some players gain yards in less sustainable ways than others, sending out false signals about their actual ability via their YPRR. 1D/RR corrects this by giving a bonus to possession receivers — those who consistently win on their routes (remember, volume is efficiency) — while devaluing players who compile a large portion of their production on a handful of big plays.

1D/RR Leaders

So, which receivers stood out in 2025 based on 1D/RR? As is the case every year, this leaderboard is populated mostly by the league’s most elite WRs.

1D/RR is available for all players and seasons going back to 2021 in the Fantasy Points Data Suite’s Advanced Receiving table. Sign up today to start dominating your league-mates with superior data.

We shouldn’t be surprised that alpha WRs like A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Nico Collins, Justin Jefferson, and Ja’Marr Chase rank well here. I will instead primarily examine a handful of the more surprising names on this list.

But first, I need to briefly spotlight Puka Nacua, who I believe is the most underrated Round 1 pick in all of 2025 fantasy football. His 0.170 1D/RR in 2024 ranks 2nd-best among all WR seasons in Fantasy Points Data history. He created first downs at more than double the rate of teammate Cooper Kupp. Across nine full games where he wasn’t injured or ejected, Nacua averaged 10.7 targets per game and an absurd 44.6% first-read target share, which would have beaten out Malik Nabers for the highest in Fantasy Points Data history. His 104.9 receiving YPG over this span also would have led all receivers in 2024. Though Nacua dealt with injury issues in college, he held up through an entire 17-game season as a rookie, suggesting he’s more than capable of doing so again. I view him as a top-5 pick, but he has remained available in the back half of the first round all offseason.

Jauan Jennings ranked top-10 in both 1D/RR (0.119) and YPRR (2.47), but is drafted as just the Underdog WR35. He’ll face similar overall target competition this year, given the trade of Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk’s likelihood to start the season on the PUP list. Across nine games that one of Samuel or Aiyuk missed in 2024, Jennings averaged 17.9 FPG (~WR8) on a 33.7% first-read target share (WR8). And this wasn’t just a case of a smart play-caller like Kyle Shanahan scheming undeserved targets to an inferior player; Jennings ranked top-20 in Average Separation Score (ASS), ahead of other great outside X WRs like Garrett Wilson and Tee Higgins. Fourth-year breakouts are rare, but not unheard of, accounting for nearly 15% of WR breakouts over the past 25 years. In my view, Jennings’ 2024 was not a simple fluke, and I’m happily drafting him as a WR3.

Josh Downs ranked 10th-best in 1D/RR (0.114) and 4th-best in TPRR (30%) behind only Puka Nacua, Drake London, and Malik Nabers last year. This suggests he’s already one of the NFL’s best target-earners and chain-movers, especially from the slot, where he ranks top-5 in Average Separation Score behind only Ladd McConkey, Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. And unlike some slot WRs, that positional designation shouldn’t limit Downs’ fantasy football upside; the Colts played 70.7% of their snaps in 11-personnel last year (10th-most). Rather, Anthony Richardson appears almost entirely responsible for keeping Downs from exploding last year; Downs averaged 15.5 FPG (~WR15) in games with Joe Flacco, and Richardson was particularly inaccurate when throwing to the horizontally-breaking routes Downs makes his living on. Likely Week 1 starter Daniel Jones showed much better accuracy on these throws in 2024 and ranked top-10 in catchable throws per game (with Richardson a distant last). Downs is a smash at his ~WR48 ADP.

Finally, Courtland Sutton stands out as a huge value at his ~WR28 ADP, a year after ranking top-12 in both 1D/RR (0.112) and XFP/G (15.6). With a rookie Bo Nix at QB going from near league-worst to near league-best in accuracy as the season went on, Sutton was also unsurprisingly much more efficient and productive in the back half of the year. From Week 10 on, his 1D/RR improved to 0.136 (5th-best) and his FPG to 17.4 (11th-best). In other words, Sutton was a bona fide fantasy WR1 once his QB had acclimated to the NFL and became comfortable in Sean Payton’s system. He’s currently one of my most-drafted WRs on Underdog.

Using 1D/RR To Predict Young Breakouts and Busts

One of the most effective and straightforward ways to utilize 1D/RR is as a mechanism to identify young breakout candidates. Rookie WRs (especially those drafted later by the NFL) often do not play full-time roles for the entirety of their first season. However, per-route efficiency stats like 1D/RR are an instant way to identify players who excelled when they were actually on the field, and remain nearly as predictive as overall production among this group.

Critically, I think the fantasy community tends to overvalue the importance of NFL Draft capital after a WR’s rookie season. In this sample of WRs drafted on Day 2 or later who reached the route minimum in Year 1, draft capital had virtually no correlation to Year 2 results.

Round 1 draft capital certainly still matters when projecting WRs out into Year 2 (though still not as much as rookie season performance). But based on these results, you should be very willing to take shots on unheralded WRs who showed out in 1D/RR as rookies, even if they weren’t in a full-time role from Week 1. Even better, the two best examples in 2025 are virtually free in all formats.

On a per-route basis, Jalen Coker generated first downs more often than 4th overall pick Marvin Harrison Jr. while also besting Harrison in YPRR (1.83 to 1.74). Across eight games above a 70% route share, Coker averaged 54.0 receiving YPG, which would have beaten the rookie seasons of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Drake London, and Jayden Reed. The list of successful NFL WRs whom Coker averaged more rookie 1D/RR than includes Nico Collins, Zay Flowers, George Pickens, Josh Downs, Jordan Addison, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. As a former UDFA, Coker won’t have the guaranteed snaps in Year 2 that most of that list enjoyed, but if he’s close to as good as his stats imply, he should have no trouble eventually beating out an aging Adam Thielen for slot snaps.

Among rookie WRs since 2021, Devaughn Vele ranks 16th-best by 1D/RR (0.096), nestled between Devonta Smith and fellow Day 3 slot receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. Just like every WR on the Broncos aside from Courtland Sutton, Vele never truly grew into a full-time role, but he did finish second on the team in route participation over the full season (53.0%), an impressive feat for a 7th-round rookie. He’s now in a suddenly-crowded competition for snaps with late-season breakout gadget player Marvin Mims and Round 3 rookie Pat Bryant, but there’s a world in which he beats them both out for the job as the primary slot receiver.

To be clear, both of these players are best as extremely deep bets in dynasty or best ball leagues, and they are cheap for a reason. The ADP market has more than caught on to the best 1D/RR-supported Year 2 breakout bets (Malik Nabers, Ladd McConkey, Brian Thomas Jr., etc.), all of whom I wrote about in greater detail here earlier in the offseason.

1D/RR can be even more valuable for eliminating players than for identifying sleepers. Since 2021, 33 qualifying rookie WRs have averaged fewer than 0.085 1D/RR. Only three of them (a 9% hit rate) averaged more than 13.0 FPG in Year 2: Jordan Addison, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Josh Downs. Seven of 15 rookie WRs who did hit at least 0.085 1D/RR (a 47% hit rate) averaged at least 13.0 FPG the following year.

Of the several 2024 rookies to not hit this important threshold, Xavier Worthy is now by far the most expensive, going as the WR23 by Underdog ADP despite his inefficient rookie season and an increasing likelihood that the significantly more efficient Rashee Rice does not serve a suspension in 2025.

Other notable sophomore WRs who failed to hit this 1D/RR threshold include Keon Coleman (0.074 1D/RR), Ricky Pearsall (0.069), Rome Odunze (0.069), Xavier Legette (0.068), and Jalen McMillan (0.066). I have little interest in these players at their price tags across most formats, especially where the market increasingly expects Year 2 breakouts where none are likely.

Finally, 1D/RR can also be useful for identifying which older WRs are nearing the Age Cliff. Based on the below criteria, only the relatively inexpensive Cooper Kupp and Adam Thielen were at red-flag levels in 2024, but this method helped me to partially dodge the Amari Cooper landmine last season.

Big Play Merchants

Last year, I used 1D/RR in conjunction with YPRR to categorize receivers based on the percentage of their production that came from big plays. Though I slightly regret the vernacular and the way I applied this analysis, I know many readers will be interested in who this year’s “Big Play Merchants” are. I’d recommend reading this entire section and the associated blurbs before writing off a player for appearing on the list below; being a big-play receiver isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

I took every WR season over the past four years that comprised at least 150 routes. Based on that sample, I calculated a percentile rank for each player’s YPRR and 1D/RR. For example, in 2023, Davante Adams had an 82nd-percentile YPRR (his 2.19 YPRR was better than 82% of other WRs) and a 79th-percentile 1D/RR (his 0.101 1D/RR was better than 79% of other WRs).

Then, I sorted players into three buckets:

• Big Play Merchants: those who ranked significantly better in YPRR than in 1D/RR (at least 15 percentiles higher).

• Normal Players: those whose YPRR and 1D/RR percentiles were within 15 percentiles of each other (they ranked about the same in both stats).

• Possession Merchants: those who ranked significantly better in 1D/RR than in YPRR (at least 15 percentiles higher).

Finally, I looked at whether each group became more or less efficient by YPRR in the subsequent year. Most Big Play Merchants (72%) were less efficient the following season, suggesting they got somewhat lucky in their original season. In this sense, they were the YPRR version of fool’s gold. 21 of the 29 players in this group experienced a decrease in YPRR the following season, with the decrease being greater than 0.5 YPRR for 10 of them.

Deebo Samuel was the biggest regression candidate this method spotted last year. However, I do want to emphasize that this doesn’t necessarily mean you should avoid “big play merchants” in fantasy football. They were no more likely to see a decrease in FPG than any other player, as they can score more fantasy points via more team pass volume, or by simply getting better and more consistent (this was the case last year for Year 2 “big play merchants” like Jordan Addison and Josh Downs).

This is more of a “style stat,” or a way of introducing context to some players’ efficiency numbers that gives a more complete picture of what they do on the football field. I’d only be particularly concerned about efficiency regression among the players below for whom we project a decrease in volume. A player like Rashid Shaheed (the ~WR55 by Underdog ADP) doesn’t need a volume or efficiency spike to pay off, and remains an appealing price for a “better-in-best-ball” big-play archetype receiver.

That said, here were 2024’s “Big Play Merchants”, and how I’m viewing a few of them entering 2025.

Cooper Kupp displays just about every possible red flag heading into 2025. As mentioned above, he fell below a critical 1D/RR threshold last year, which has predicted a late-career decline for formerly elite wide receivers 68% of the time. His separation skills also declined (per both my eyes and our charting team’s), ranking just 51st of 69 qualifying WRs in ASS after Week 12. He still put together a relatively efficient season by YPRR thanks to his chemistry with Matthew Stafford and an injury to Puka Nacua, but the separation and the results did not come consistently.

Kupp is now on a Klint Kubiak offense that ranked 31st in 11-personnel rate last year (33.8%), where he’s unlikely to be able to work from the slot as much. Unlike Jaxon Smith-Njigba (arguably), Kupp also doesn’t have the deep explosiveness in his game to play a Rashid Shaheed-like high-efficiency role. After considering that Kubiak’s Saints ranked 8th-lowest in pass rate over expectation (-2.0%), it becomes difficult to project a high-volume role for Kupp at age 33. His ~WR49 ADP prices much of this in, but I still see little reason to consider him over players like Josh Downs (~WR48) or Emeka Egbuka (~WR50).

DK Metcalf is likely to see some efficiency regression as a “big play merchant.” However, this is particularly concerning when considered in conjunction with his narrow path to target volume.

No player has ever exceeded 115 targets in an Arthur Smith offense. And Metcalf didn’t reach 1,000 receiving yards or 13.0 FPG during either season in which he’s seen fewer than 115 targets. A.J. Brown — Metcalf’s former Ole Miss teammate who thoroughly outproduced him both there and in the NFL — is the only WR ever to exceed 12.0 FPG under Smith. I’m unsure why Underdog drafters (at Metcalf’s ~WR25 ADP) have so much confidence in an OC who has ranked bottom-7 in total pass plays over each of the last three years. Even if Metcalf sets a career-high in target share as would be required for him to pay off at this price, he and a 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers — who ranked just 19th in deep ball completion rate last year (38.6%) — don’t strike fear into my heart. This passing offense makes for an easy fade for me.

When I first wrote about Jayden Reed as a “big play merchant,” he was two rounds more expensive than he is in 2025 drafts. I had some distaste for his 2024 ADP, but this year, I’m starting to see the vision.

Reed’s situation has also arguably gotten better since then; throughout last year, he had to compete for targets with Christian Watson (who ranked top-6 in ASS) and Dontayvion Wicks (who can’t catch, but is one of the league’s best separators and likewise commanded a 30% TPRR, ranking top-5). With Watson recovering from a very late-season ACL injury and Wicks possibly in the dog house for drops, both players’ routes could instead be occupied by Round 1 rookie Matthew Golden in more of a low-TPRR field stretcher role. Per Scott Barrett, Golden’s 0.188 college career TPRR ranks in the 9th percentile of all Round 1-2 WRs this past decade; playing next to Golden instead of Watson or Wicks could plausibly be good for Reed’s target share.

Reed still primarily brings value as a YAC threat (his 7.33 YAC/R in 2024 ranking 4th-best among 50 qualifying WRs) and designed target maven (his 33.3% designed target rate ranking 1st). If Golden allows Reed to earn a higher target share in a year when Jordan Love stays healthy, he could pay off his cheaper cost significantly. Reed averaged 18.3 FPG across Love’s five games before the latter sustained his groin injury; if the Packers return to their pass-heavy ways with a healthy Love in 2025, Reed will be a steal.