With six teams on bye and RB Armageddon hurting everyone, Week 7 sets up to be a survival week. Let’s go through all of the key stats from the week that was to help with our future lineup decisions and bets:
BYE teams Falcons, Jets, 49ers, and Saints were not included.
Kyler Murray was fantastic once again as a passer in Week 6 and is now first in completions (73.8%) and third in YPA (8.9), but his rushing upside has taken a big hit. It’s only a matter of time before it catches up to him in fantasy because he obviously can’t throw 4 TDs every week.
Through six weeks, Murray is 12th in rushing yards per game (19.2) and 8th in rushing fantasy points per game (4.9) among QBs.
Last year, Murray was third in both rushing yards per game among QBs (51.2) and rushing fantasy points per game (9.2).
Why is that? Simply put: Murray is scrambling way less. Per SIS, Kyler is averaging just 1.7 scrambles per game.
In 2020, Murray averaged 3.2 scrambles per game.
DeAndre Hopkins games with less than 25% of Cardinals targets this year: 4.
Hopkins games with less than 25% of Cardinals targets last season: 4.
Rondale Moore’s snap rate has increased in four-straight games: 34% > 42% > 48% > 56%.
After scoring just 5 FP in Week 1, Mark Andrews has been a consistent stud – rattling off TE10, TE6, TE12, TE1, and TE4 weekly finishes over his last five games.
Andrews has seen at least 22% of Ravens’ targets in four-straight games.
Andrews is now second among all TEs in target share (25%) just behind Darren Waller (26%).
In his debut, Rashod Bateman was second among the Ravens WRs in routes runs and he lined up primarily as an outside receiver (19-of-22 routes).
Ravens RB snaps in Week 6: Murray (38%) / Bell (32%) / Freeman (30%). Disgusting.
After a “slow start”, Josh Allen is now the QB1 by FPG (25.7) by a hair over Patrick Mahomes (25.6) and Tom Brady (25.4).
Allen’s last four weekly finishes: QB1 > QB13 > QB4 > QB3.
Over the last three weeks, Chuba Hubbard has handled a whopping 88% of the Panthers RB carries.
However, Hubbard has not had near the receiving role of Christian McCaffrey or Mike Davis last year.
Hubbard has been on the field for just 37% of the Panthers pass plays without CMC.
Hubbard has dropped 5 of his 18 catchable targets per SIS.
It’s definitely time to start biting your nails if you’re a Panthers fan, because the same problems that Sam Darnold had with the Jets have resurfaced over his last two games.
Darnold has been on-target on just 52% of his throws (second-worst), he’s averaged just 3.4 YPA (worst), and his passer rating is 28.0 (third-worst) when pressured over the last two weeks.
Luckily, the Panthers face the Giants and Falcons next and both of those defenses are bottom-6 in QB pressures.
Allen Robinson is the WR75 in FPG.
He’s scored fewer than 10 FP in 5-of-6 games.
The good news? A-Rob ranks 11th in air yards (436) with Justin Fields under center over the last month.
The bad news? Just five of A-Rob’s 11 targets of 10+ air yards have been catchable in this span.
Khalil Herbert led all RBs in snap rate in Week 6 at 89%.
Bengals target distribution in the four games that Tee Higgins has played: Higgins (28), Chase (27), Boyd (21).
Boyd has been under 16% of the targets in 3-of-4 games with Higgins healthy.
With Samaje Perine (COVID I.R.) out last week, Joe Mixon was on the field for 76% of the Bengals plays before they pulled their starters in the fourth quarter.
Before he injured his ankle, Joe Mixon handled a 76% snap share in Weeks 1-4 – which ranked fifth-highest among RBs.
Dating back to last year, Mixon has handled 23 touches per game and never dipped below 17 touches in a single-game over his last 11 fully healthy contests.
Joe Burrow has at least been consistent despite the Bengals being very run-heavy. His weekly finishes: QB17 > QB25 > QB17 > QB11 > QB17 > QB9.
Back in 2019, Nick Chubb was the RB5 in FPG (18.7) in Weeks 1-9 before Kareem Hunt’s suspension was up in Week 10.
In that eight game span, Chubb played on 74% of the Browns’ snaps and handled 20 or more touches in 7-of-8 games.
Chubb also averaged four targets per game in that span.
This year? Chubb ranks just 29th among RBs in snap rate (53%) and he has just five total targets.
With Hunt on IR, Chubb has a chance to push Derrick Henry as the RB1 in fantasy when he gets back healthy.
Dallas leads the NFL in yards gained per play (6.6) and they are tied for second-best with Buffalo in points scored per drive (2.9).
What’s crazy is that the Cowboys could be even better if they become more efficient in the red-zone. Dallas has scored a TD on just 56% of their red-zone drives this year, which is eighth-worst.
Per PFF, Javonte Williams leads all RBs in missed tackles forced per carry (0.34).
Williams ranks sixth-best in yards after contact per carry – behind only Nick Chubb, James Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, and Kareem Hunt.
Despite all of this, Williams has yet to play more than 51% of the team’s snaps in a game this year.
For as awesome as D’Andre Swift is, you have to give credit to Jamaal Williams for how well he’s running.
Per SIS, Williams is fourth-best among 59 qualifying RBs in success rate at 51%.
Meanwhile, Swift ranks 56th at 29%.
Per PFF, Swift is dead last in yards after contact and missed tackles forced per carry among 46 qualifying RBs.
Swift’s role as the pass catcher and goal-line back is obviously more valuable, but Williams isn’t going anywhere.
Green Bay Packers
A.J. Dillon was given 25% of Green Bay's backfield touches in the first three weeks of the season.
Over his last three games, he's accounted for 42% of their RB touches. (H/T TJ Hernandez)
The irony is that Aaron Jones is still the Packers preferred goal-line back over Dillon. Jones has out-snapped Dillon 23 to 9 on Green Bay’s 30 plays from inside of the 10-yard line and has 10 carries to Dillon’s 3.
Davis Mills has attempted 139 passes. 45 of them have gone to Brandin Cooks (32%) while no other Texan has more than 16 targets.
Cooks predictably struggled against the Bills and Patriots, but he finished as the WR20 vs. Jaguars in Week 1, WR8 vs. Browns in Week 2, WR11 in Week 3 vs. Panthers, and was the WR16 last week vs. Colts.
At some point, Frank Reich has to open his eyes and see the talent that he’s not fully utilizing, right? For some inexplicable reason, Taylor got two (2!!) first-half carries against the Texans even though the game was 10-3 at the half.
Taylor leads the league in rushing yards over expectation per carry, which is personally the best proxy for Yards Created that I’ve seen at the NFL level.
Taylor also ranks third-best in yards after contact per carry – behind only Nick Chubb and James Robinson.
TY Hilton ran a route on 16 of Carson Wentz’s 23 dropbacks in TY’s return, which was third among Colts WRs.
Since getting just five carries in Week 1, James Robinson is second among RBs in snap rate (76%) trailing only Alvin Kamara (86%).
Robinson has handled 82% of the RB carries from Weeks 2-6.
Over the last two weeks with DJ Chark (IR) out, Laviska Shenault has lined up as an outside WR on 79% of his routes.
In Weeks 1-4, Shenault was primarily a slot receiver as he lined up there on 83% of his routes.
Jags’ target distribution with Chark out: JAMAL AGNEW (14), Laviska Shenault (13), Dan Arnold (13), Marvin Jones (13), James Robinson (7).
Kansas City Chiefs
- Darrel Williams’ usage was amazing with CEH out. He played on 72% of the Chiefs snaps (9th among RBs), got 75% of the carries, 4 targets, and was on the field for 3-of-3 plays inside of the five-yard line. He’s a bell cow for as long as CEH is out.
Las Vegas Raiders
The good news? Josh Jacobs’ usage is the best of his career. Jacobs’ 62% snap rate is a career-high.
The bad news? His efficiency is the worst of his career. Per SIS, Jacobs has averaged -0.29 EPA per carry which is 58th-of-59 RBs. Only Phillip Lindsay (-0.36) is worse.
Los Angeles Chargers
Burn the tape game. Justin Herbert’s 67.8 passer rating vs. the Ravens was the second-worst in a single game he’s had in his 20 career starts.
Mike Williams was playing at way less than 100% in Week 6. He played on just 36% of the snaps, so their BYE this week is perfectly timed.
Los Angeles Rams
Well, Robert Woods’ squeaky wheel in Week 5 was fun while it lasted! Cooper Kupp extended his streak of double-digit targets to six games while Woods has now been held to six or fewer targets in 4-of-6 games.
Tyler Higbee’s usage continues to be amazing, but he just isn’t seeing the targets. Higbee has been involved on 80% of Rams’ passing plays this season – which trails only Darren Waller (90.2%), Travis Kelce (85.8%), TJ Hockenson (85.2%), and Mark Andrews (82.1%).
If Higbee can’t get it done in Weeks 7-8, it’s over. The Rams face the Lions and Texans next and they are giving up the fourth- and sixth-most fantasy points per target to TEs, respectively.
Darrell Henderson has been a consistent stud in his five full games and has rattled off weekly finishes of RB14 > RB11 > RB15 > RB19 > RB5 with 16 or more touches in every start.
- Over the last month, Gesicki is the TE4 in FPG – which only trails Mark Andrews, Dalton Schultz, and Dawson Knox – and he’s tied for the second-most targets (34) at the position in this span. The Falcons are next.
- Dalvin Cook is back. He played on 74% of the snaps and handled 29-of-32 RB carries in Week 6 after missing his previous game.
New England Patriots
Damien Harris handled 18 of the Patriots 24 RB carries in Week 6 and he’s now seen 14 or more carries in 4-of-6 games (with the only two games without that total coming against the Saints and Buccaneers).
Harris has ran well all season, ranking ninth-best in yards after contact and sixth-best in missed tackles forced per carry.
However, Harris is barely playing on passing downs. Rhamondre Stevenson led the backfield in routes (9) followed by Brandon Bolden (8) and then Harris (5) in Week 6.
New York Giants
- Devontae Booker filled in for Barkley against the Rams and turned his 16 touches into a very nice 69 scrimmage yards while playing on a workhorse-like 72% of the snaps. Booker will be on the back-end RB2 radar if Barkley misses again.
Bashing Jalen Hurts has been the fun new thing to do, so let’s give his performance some context…
Hurts hasn’t been perfectly accurate, sure. But he’s also not been inaccurate either. Hurts has been on-target on 72.9% of his non-pressured throws beyond the line of scrimmage – which is right behind Matthew Stafford (73.1%) who ranks 24th.
Hurts has completed 47.5% of his throws of 15 or more yards in air, and that is right smack dab in the middle of league-average (14th-of-28 QBs).
Hurts hasn’t been bad against pressure, either! When he has been pressured, Hurts’ passer rating is 79.3 – which ranks ninth-best. He’s been on-target on 63.8% of his throws when pressured (17th).
So, has Jalen Hurts been great? Absolutely not. But has he even been below-average as a passer? Not really. Maybe, just maybe, we should give the guy who has made 10 career starts and is dealing with a new coaching staff more time.
Miles Sanders’ snap rate has increased in four-straight games: 60% > 64% > 75% > 83%.
Diontae Johnson saw 32% of the Steelers' targets in Week 6 with Smith-Schuster out, which marks the fourth time he’s seen 30% or more of Steelers’ targets in his five games this year.
Najee Harris is averaging 22.7 touches per game – which is currently 17th-most among rookie RBs all-time. For reference, Ezekiel Elliott (23.6) had the eighth-most while Eric Dickerson (27.8) is the all-time leader.
Geno Smith’s target distribution (49 attempts): Lockett (11), Metcalf (10), Dallas (6), Dissly (5), Swain (5), Everett (3), Collins (3).
In two games without Chris Carson (neck; IR), Alex Collins has handled 65% of the snaps and 77% of the RB carries.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With Ronald Jones demoted, Leonard Fournette has averaged 22.3 touches, 125.3 scrimmage yards, and 22.9 FPG over his last three games.
Fournette has been heavily utilized near the goal-line, too. He’s played on 83% of the Bucs’ 24 plays inside of the 10-yard line over the last three weeks.
Derrick Henry’s touch count over his last 10 games (including playoffs): 28, 26, 23, 34, 21, 21, 41, 31, 35, 29, and 22.
Derrick Henry’s fantasy point totals in the Titans last nine wins: 20.2 > 38.5 > 36.2 > 25.2 > 37 > 47.7 > 17.4 > 31 > 35.6.
That shakes out to an average of 32.1 FPG. No big deal.
A.J. Brown is back. He’s been on the field for 51 of Ryan Tannehill’s 58 dropbacks over the last two weeks and has gotten monster target shares of 27% and 31%.
Granted, Washington didn’t have Jaret Patterson last year. But when Antonio Gibson missed two games, JD McKissic handled 65% and 88% of the snaps in his spot starts.
In those two starts, McKissic got 11 and 13 carries to go along with 4 and 10 targets.
It’s a tiny sample, but McKissic played on 8-of-10 snaps after Gibson went down in Week 6.