Here’s my very quick look at the week (this week it actually will be quick, I swear).
If you want more information and analysis, you can always read our Week 14 Game Hubs.
Atlanta Falcons (5-7) at Carolina Panthers (5-7)
Players I like more than usual: Cordarrelle Patterson, Cam Newton
Players I’m neutral on: Chubba Hubbard, DJ Moore, Russell Gage, Mike Davis
Players I like less than usual: Kyle Pitts, Matt Ryan
Longshot Plays: Robby Anderson
Notes: The Falcons are nothing without Cordarrelle Patterson, and he’s just about a sure thing, as he’s hit 12+ FP in nine straight. I see no reason to feel good about Matt Ryan, who has hit 13+ FP just once in his last six, He had just 146 yards (5.4 YPA), 1 TD and 2 INTs in this matchup in Week 6. That’s not great news for Russell Gage, but Gage is obviously a Godsend for injury-hit fantasy teams, and he’s the WR6 the last two weeks with 19 targets and 17 catches, so he’s worth using for sure. But I’m not expecting the world, since he should see some of CB Stephon Gilmore. Kyle Pitts had just 2/13 receiving on six targets in this matchup at the end of October, and that was Mr. Gilmore, so I can’t say anything good about Pitts this week. Mike Davis looked better last in the passing game, if that does anything for you.
The Panthers fired OC Joe Brady over their bye week, which usually results in a positive result immediately. I do like Cam Newton in this one, but he has a downside. But I mentioned that downside here before his ugly Week 12 game, so I saw it coming. That was a bad matchup, but this is a good one. The Falcons are giving up the second-most FPG (21.4) to QBs this season. D.J. Moore may see a lot of stud CB AJ Terrell, but Moore’s a decent WR3 this week for sure, and Robby Anderson may avoid Terrell, which gives him a chance. Chubba Hubbard should be their lead back, and they will look to run the ball, since that was a problem with former OC Brady. But the Panther OL is banged up, and it stinks when healthy, and Ameer Abdullah is going to play in passing situations. Hubbard is more of a desperation play, but he’s certainly a solid flex.
New Orleans Saints (5-7) at New York Jets (3-9)
Players I like more than usual: Taysom Hill, Alvin Kamara, Jamison Crowder
Players I’m neutral on: None of note
Players I like less than usual: Zach Wilson
Longshot Plays: Tre’Quan Smith, Marquez Callaway, Ty Johnson
Notes: Alvin Kamara’s an obvious play this week, as Mark Ingram tested positive for Covid-19 this week. Ingram is vaccinated, but he may not make it to this game. The Jets are giving up the third-most rushing yards per game (117.6) and the second-most receiving yards per game (62.8) to RBs. Taysom Hill is also a good play and an obvious QB1 with such a good matchup. He was a full go in practice all week, so I think he will be better and less rusty in his second start this week. The Jets are giving up the third-most rushing yards per game (133.4) and the fourth-most passing yards (274.7). WR Deonte Harris is out of the mix, which clears things up a bit for Tre’Quan Smith and Marquez Callaway. Smith led the Saints with 36 routes last week and should have had a 25-yard TD but Hill missed him. Callaway was next with 30 routes, and he’s also a viable hail mary play. Lil’Jordan Humphrey did look good last week, though.
With Elijah Moore ruled out and Corey Davis already out, Jamison Crowder is a really good bargain this week, since Zach Wilson should look for him often. He’s a top-5 value on both sites. The Saints and CB PJ Williams have been quite giving inside, giving up the third-most FPG to slot receivers the last eight weeks. I’m just not messing with the other Jets WRs, since they have 3-4 who will be in the mix. Tevin Coleman is out and Michael Carter is still on IR, so if desperate, I’d try out Ty Johnson, but it’s a tough matchup. Wilson will have to get him the ball in the passing game, which is a stretch still.
San Francisco 49ers (6-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-5)
Players I like more than usual: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, George Kittle
Players I’m neutral on: Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Deebo Samuel, Jimmy Garoppolo, Brandon Aiyuk
Players I like less than usual: None of note
Longshot Plays: Jeff Wilson
49ers RB Elijah Mitchell is out, so it’s Jeff Wilson as the team’s lead runner with JaMycal Hasty the RB2 and possibly pass-catching specialist. This matchup is better than Week 11, when Wilson had just 19/50 rushing (2.6 YPC) and 1/8 receiving as the team’s lead runner. He’s banged up himself (knee), but he was FP the last two days and the Bengals will be without LB Logan Wilson, which is a huge loss. Jimmy Garoppolo is a decent play if needed, and the matchup is decent enough. In fact, Justin Herbert just got them for 317/3 passing last week.
George Kittle has looked awesome, and it’s a solid matchup as Darren Waller posted 7/116 receiving on eight targets in this matchup three weeks ago. Deebo Samuel has a chance to play, and if he does I’d imagine he’ll be somewhat limited. I’m guessing 50% of what he normally plays unless they need him to give them more. I’m starting him if he’s active. There’s nothing scary about the matchup for him or Brandon Aiyuk.
I like the Bengals passing game in this one, and Joe Burrow has reportedly thrown the ball well in practice this week. He hasn’t hit for multiple TDs in four straight, but he did hit 300 yards passing for the first time since Week 7 last week. The 49ers have been stingy but they are very beatable in the secondary and will likely be without top CB Emmanuel Moseley, who didn’t practice all week, and they won’t have LB Dre Greenlaw, so they should be weakened. Ja’Marr Chase is due to explode and this week is a good week for him to blow up. The 49ers are below-average against the slot, if that helps you with Tyler Boyd, and you’re not sitting the red hot Tee Higgins. Joe Mixon has been dealing with an illness, but if he goes, you’re rolling with him. The 49ers are giving up the fourth-most rushing TDs per game (1.0) to RBs.
Baltimore Ravens (8-4) at Cleveland Browns (6-6)
Players I like more than usual: Mark Andrews
Players I’m neutral on: Lamar Jackson, Devonta Freeman, Marquise Brown, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Baker Mayfield
Players I like less than usual: None of note
Longshot Plays: Donovan Peoples-Jones, Austin Hooper
Notes: Lamar Jackson is really struggling right now, as teams are blitzing him and he’s responding and playing poorly. Since he posted only 165/1 passing and 13.4 FP with four INTs in this matchup just back in Week 12, his projections are lower than usual. Mark Andrews was the intended target on all four of Lamar’s INTs last week, but Andrews also scored on a Lamar prayer ball in the previous game, so you’re using him. You’re probably also using Marquise Brown, who had a decent 8/51 receiving on 10 targets in this matchup two weeks ago. The Browns won’t have CB Greg Newsome, which helps the Ravens, but Denzel Ward can still limit Hollywood. I don’t really, truly trust Devonta Freeman, but he’s easy to start if you’re hurting a little and he's the undisputed top RB now with 17.2/75.7 scrimmage per game with three TDs over his last five games. You can’t use Rashod Bateman with Lamar struggling and Sammy Watkins still playing a lot of snaps, by the way.
The Ravens shut down Cleveland’s rushing two weeks ago, but the Browns have run on them in the recent past, so I’m feeling okay about Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, since it’s in Cleveland, they are coming off the bye, and the Ravens offense is struggling. I do not want to use Baker Mayfield, but I do like his receivers’ chances of exceeding expectations. Jarvis Landry had season-highs in targets (10), catches (6), and receiving yards (111) in this matchup two weeks ago and now CB Marlon Humphrey is on IR. I like Donovan Peoples-Jones, since TEs David Njoku and Harrison Bryant are out, as is WR Anthony Schwartz, and DPJ is not even on the injury report. Mayfield excels against man to man, and the Ravens have allowed four different WRs to reach 100+ yards in the last three weeks, so DPJ has top-20 upside. I also like Austin Hooper with Njoku and Bryant out. The Ravens are giving up the third-most FPG (16.3) to TEs this season. Mayfield isn’t easy to trust, but he practiced fully all week.
Seattle Seahawks (4-8) at Houston Texans (2-10)
Players I like more than usual: Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf
Players I’m neutral on: None of note
Players I like less than usual: Brandin Cooks, Gerald Everrett
Longshot Plays: Rashad Penny, Rex Burkhead
Notes: Look, this offense sucks, but Russell Wilson was a little better last week, and the matchup is certainly beatable for him and Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, and Gerald Everrett probably won’t get much in the form of looks after last week’s horrible game. It’s going to be Rashad Penny and Alex Collins splitting the backfield duties this week, and I’d give the edge to Penny, who is healthier and the better receiver and big-play threat.
Houston’s offense is in Davis Mills’ hands, and I’m okay with it. Tyrod Taylor was terrible. But Brandin Cooks, who has failed to reach 50+ yards in three straight, has a tough matchup on the outside. Seattle is giving up the second-fewest FPG to outside WRs the last eight weeks. I have been a Rex Burkhead guy, but he has burned me almost every time, ironically. I started him last week, and he predictably crapped the bed. I cut him this week and he will predictably get it done this week. Use only if you’re desperate, and check our projections, but I’m calling for 15 points now that I cut him. I do like his chance, as the Seahawks are giving up the second-most FPG (30.9) to RBs this season.
Las Vegas Raiders (6-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (8-4)
Players I like more than usual: Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Josh Jacobs, Hunter Renfrow
Players I’m neutral on: Darrel Williams, Derek Carr, Foster Moreau
Players I like less than usual: None of note.
Longshot Plays: DeSean Jackson
Notes: Josh Jacobs is in line for 20+ touches, and he could hit 25+ opportunities, so he’s looking like a good play no matter what. Derek Carr has thrown for multiple TDs just once in five games and I’m not feeling great about him against a surging Chiefs defense at Arrowhead. Carr completed 25/35 passes for 261 yards (7.5 YPA), two TDs, and one INT in this matchup earlier this season, and that’s about as good as I can see him doing, but he does have a good overall history in this matchup. Hunter Renfrow is the only Raider receiver you can trust when Darren Waller is out (and even when he’s not), and Waller is out. Renfrow in Weeks 12-13 had a combined 17/236 receiving on 19 targets for 40.8 FP, and he got it done with 7/46/1 receiving on nine targets against the Chiefs in Week 10. I’d still consider Foster Moreau if I needed him. He’s good and will be an inviting target in the red zone. Bryan Edwards did well in this matchup the last time out three weeks ago, but DeSean Jackson is the better upside play now.
I definitely like the Chiefs offense in this one. If the Raiders are dumb enough to stick with a lot of cover-3 with single-high safeties and a predictable defense, then we must take advantage of that because that’s the opposite of what KC is being limited against this year. The Raiders faced a struggling Patrick Mahomes just three weeks ago and Tyreek Hill posted 7/83/2 receiving on 10 targets. I’m expecting similar success for Mahomes and Hill, and Travis Kelce. Clyde Edwards Helaire has looked really good, and since the Chiefs are actually winning with their defense now, it would not be a shock to see the struggling Raiders offense lay an egg this week in KC, where the Chiefs are 10-point favorites. The Raiders won’t have DE Carl Nassib and a starting LB in Denzel Perryman, so this is a great spot against a defense that helped Darrel Williams (a viable reach) finish as the RB1 for the week less than month ago.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10) at Tennessee Titans (8-4)
Players I like more than usual: Julio Jones
Players I’m neutral on: Ryan Tannehill
Players I like less than usual: Laviska Shenault, Marvin Jones
Longshot Plays: D’Onta Foreman, Laquon Treadwell, James O’Shaughnessy
Notes: It’s been bad with Trevor Lawrence, but he at least put up 22.7 FP earlier in the season in this matchup. I actually think Laquon Treadwell has played better than he’s ever played and is a legit option if you’re desperate for 10 FP. Laviska Shenault and Marvin Jones are still lurking but they are dart throw starts at this point. It’s not a good matchup for him, but James O’Shaughnessy led the Jaguars with six targets and 21% share last week and had a serviceable 5/42 and Dan Arnold had 6/64 receiving in this matchup earlier this season.James Robinson was a full go in practice on Friday, so if he’s up for it he may get the ball after the controversy with him last week. Robinson got the Titans for 18/149/1 rushing in this matchup in early October, but we’ll take 65-70% of that production gladly at this point.
The Titans backfield may be a disaster with Jeremy McNichols expected back. Dontrell Hilliard has done good work in the passing game, but he’s also played on early downs as a runner, potentially hurting D’Onta Foreman’s touches, and both lose out on passing downs to McNichols.Sony Michel posted 24/121/1 rushing against them last week, and Foreman is the closest to Michel. Julio Jones looks good to go off his hamstring injury and I’d expect some targets and a legit chance to eclipse 10 FP. Having Julio on the field really enhances Ryan Tannehill’s prospects, but he’s been below 19+ FP with just one TD pass in each of his last four games, and managed just 197/1 passing and 3/21 rushing in this matchup back in Week 5 when Henry ran for three scores, so I’m not that excited. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is still worth a look with Julio back, and in fact he might be in better shape with Julio on the other side.
Dallas Cowboys (8-4) at Washington Football Team (6-6)
Players I like more than usual: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Dalton Schultz, Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, Ricky Seals-Jones
Players I’m neutral on: Ezekiel Elliott, Michael Gallup, Taylor Heinicke
Players I like less than usual: None of note
Longshot Plays: None of note
Notes: I like the Cowboys passing game in this one, so I like Dak Prescott. The Cowboys are healthier at WR now and Washington is still giving up the most FPG (23.2) and the most TD passes per game (2.2) to QBs this season. CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup are looking slightly better than usual, but I like Amari Cooper, who has a good history in this matchup, Cooper, who seems to be 100% healthy now, in his two games against Washington last year, put up 7/80 and 6/112/1. It’s not looking good for Tony Pollard, so while the matchup is still tough for the struggling Cowboys running game, Ezekiel Elliott has had 10 days to recover since his last game and he’s a good bet to get 20+ opportunities, making a top-7 finish this week likely. There are voids in the middle of the field against Washington, who give up the sixth-most FP per target and EPA per attempt to TEs the last eight weeks, so I like Dalton Schultz this week.
I’m not using Taylor Heinicke unless pretty desperate, but I do like Terry McLaurin, who put up 7/90 and 7/92/1 in this matchup last year. The Cowboys are giving up an extremely generous 14.7 YPR to WRs this season, and he can beat Trevon Diggs, for sure. Ricky Seals-Jones is also a good option if you need a TE. RSJ had 4+ catches in three straight games in Weeks 5-7 while filling in for Logan Thomas and healthy, and the Cowboys giving up the 11th-most FPG (13.8) to TEs this season. Antonio Gibson has handled a whopping 26, 19, 36, and 28 touches in his last four games, and he’s hit 21+ FP in three of those four games, so he’s still a value at his pricing. Even if JD McKissic returns to a larger role, I’m still backing Gibson, who is averaging 20/121.5/2 in this matchup in his last two games (his only two games) against them.
Detroit Lions (1-10-1) at Denver Broncos (6-6)
Players I like more than usual: Javonte Williams, Jerry Jeudy, Teddy Bridgewater
Players I’m neutral on: Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant
Players I like less than usual: Jared Goff, T.J. Hockenson, Josh Reynolds, Amon-Ra St. Brown
Longshot Plays: Godwin Igwebuike
Notes: After their big first win last week, I’m expecting the Lions to take a big step back offensively, on the road, against a good defense. They won’t have RB Jamaal Williams, so it’s Godwin Igwebuike and Jermar Jefferson and I don’t think they know who the leading rusher will be today. Igwebuike did step into the passing-back role with D'Andre Swift out, so he should get a slight edge. But I do like Jefferson, if you’re desperate. It’s not the best matchup. I was impressed by Jared Goff last week, but I’m expecting the success to end this week against a Broncos defense that just limited Patrick Mahomes to 184 scoreless yards and a 6.3 YPA average last week. T.J. Hockenson is doubtful, and the Broncos have been good on the outside, so it’s a tough matchup for Josh Reynolds, and Amon-Ra St. Brown will have to see stud slot CB Bryce Callahan, who was just activated from IR.
I have to think Javonte Williams will handle at least 60% of the snaps and touches after his performance last week, and it’s a great spot against a Lions team that’s on the road in the cold, just shot it’s 2021 shot last week with it’s first win, and literally has a third of its team on the injury report. Even if Melvin Gordon is a big factor, there’s room for two productive RBs with Denver as eight-point home favorites. The Lions are giving up the fourth-most FPG (26.9) to RBs this season. It’s certainly a beatable matchup for Teddy Bridgewater, as even Andy Dalton posted 317/1 passing for 16.8 FP in this matchup back in Week 12. Jerry Jeudy has the best matchup and hope, but if you’re desperate, it’s still a beatable matchup for their other WRs like Courtland Sutton, and the Lions have given up 11+ FP in three straight games after Tyler Conklin got them for 7/56 receiving on nine targets, so Noah Fant isn’t hopeless.
New York Giants (4-8) at Los Angeles Chargers (7-5)
Players I like more than usual: Mike Williams
Players I’m neutral on: Sterling Shepard
Players I like less than usual: Kenny Golladay,
Longshot Plays: Evan Engram
Notes: The Giants are going with Mike Glennon again, and he’s capable but the problem is the Giants receivers aren’t capable. Other than Sterling Shepard, who is the only one I’d be willing to try out. The Chargers are giving up the fourth-fewest FPG (29.5) to WRs this season, so it’s not the beast matchup. Evan Engram led the Giants with 4/61 receiving on five targets (11% share) from Glennon last week, and the Chargers had given up five TDs to TEs in Weeks 10-12, if desperate. Saquon Barkley’s usage is pretty good, so he’s worth a shot this week in terms of being optimistic. The Chargers have been bad against the run all year, although they have tightened up in recent weeks and limited Joe Mixon to just 19/54/1 rushing last week.
The Giants have improved against the pass, but they still don’t have a pass rush, so I’m using Justin Herbert, even without Keenan Allen. He has 21+ FP in three straight, and he’s playing at a high level. The main concern is he doesn’t have to throw it much, but Herbert still has weapons, like Mike Williams, Jalen Guyton, and Josh Palmer, who are all looking better than usual. The Giants are giving up the ninth-most FPG (36.6) to WRs this season. Jared Cook is also a good reach play, and Mike Gesicki went for 7/46 receiving on 11 targets in this matchup last week. Needless to say, you’re using Austin Ekeler, as the Giants are getting hit for for 4.5 YPC and the 10th-most catches per game (6.0) to WRs.
Buffalo Bills (7-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3)
Players I like more than usual: Dawson Knox, Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette
Players I’m neutral on: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski
Players I like less than usual: Chris Godwin
Longshot Plays: Cole Beasley
Notes: The Bills tried to go heavy and run it last week but they still couldn’t, so I’m expecting them to bail on their rushing attack and for Josh Allen to throw it 50+ times. The Bucs are facing the most pass attempts per game (39.8), as well. Stefon Diggs should be active, and while Tampa has good CBs, they are allowing the eighth-most receptions per game (13.6) and the 15th-most FPG (35.4) to the position. Dawson Knox was brutal last week and has fallen below 35 receiving yards in four of his last five games, so he’s risky. But he also has an 80-yard game and a two-TD game in that span and he’s sneaky this week. The Bucs have given up just one TD to a TE in their last six games, but I think Josh Allen will throw it 50+ times, and he looks for Knox in the red zone A LOT. And S Jordan Whitehead is out for Tampa, which helps. Since they will throw a lot, I’m okay with reaching for Emmanuel Sanders, who could have scored last week, and Cole Beasley, as Russell Gage feasted in this spot last week. Buffalo’s backfield is a complete mess with three backs involved last week, so good luck. Devin Singletary is the best option for now .
It’s not the best matchup for Tom Brady, but he’s coming off a 4+ TD game and Bills top CB Tre’Davious White is out of the lineup. Chris Godwin is coming off a huge game, but he’s in the slot more than half the time, and the Bills have a great slot corner in Taron Johnson, so this could be a Mike Evans game and a Gronk game. Rob Gronkowski is from Buffalo and usually gets up for these matchups and he has 12 career touchdowns in 15 games against the Bills.
Leonard Fournette at this point won’t be denied fantasy production, given his large role in the offense. He has 16+ touches in four straight with 5 TDs since their Week 9 bye. The Bills are giving up the sixth-fewest FPG (20.9) to RBs, but they’ve been run all over recently by the Patriots’ RBs (31.4 FP) and Jonathan Taylor (53.4). They won’t have DT Star Lotulelei, which will hurt their ability to stop Lenny.
Chicago Bears (4-8) at Green Bay Packers (9-3)
Players I like more than usual: Aaron Rodgers
Players I’m neutral on: Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, David Montgomery
Players I like less than usual: Allen Robinson, Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon, Davante Adams
Longshot Plays: Justin Fields, Marquez Valdez-Scantling
Notes: He’s looked really good the last two weeks and has a massive role, so it’s tough to shy away from David Montgomery, who is coming off a huge game last week. He’s dealing with three different injuries, which isn’t easy to ignore, though. Khalil Herbert put up 19/97/1 rushing and 2/15 rushing in this matchup back in Week 6, but Montgomery will go. Justin Fields is not easy to trust and is probably still sore (ribs), but he did show signs of life earlier in the year in this matchup with 174/1 passing and 6/43 rushing. He will have Allen Robinson available to him, so between A-Rob, his guy Darnell Mooney and his other guy TE Cole Kmet, I have to think Fields can get to 200/1 passing. He’s averaging 52 rushing yards a game in his last four, and that’s obviously the key to it all: he has to run for at least 40 yards, and I think he will. If I still had serious doubts about Fields, I’d use CB Jaire Alexander’s status as a guide. If Alexander is out, things will be easier for Fields. Mooney flopped last week, but he still caught 5 balls and Andy Dalton is a terrible bad weather QB, so that was the bigger problem. Mooney has posted 12+ FP in three of his last four games with Fields at quarterback in Week 6-9, including 5/45/1 against the Packers in mid-October. Kmet has 6+ targets in five of his last six games, and he finished with a decent 4/49 receiving five targets against Green Bay in Week 6.
When it comes to the Bears, Aaron Rodgers does, in fact, own their asses. In his last three games in this matchup dating back to just 2020, he’s averaged 25.1 FPG with 292/2 passing. Unless their RBs go off, this is a 20-25-point game for Rodgers. Davante Adams posted just 4/89 receiving on five targets in this matchup earlier in the year, and that was mainly due to CB Jalen Johnson. That’s an angle for Marquez Valdez-Scantling, who should be needed more with Randall Cobb out. MVS has seen a team-best 19 targets over Green Bay’s last two games, and the Bears have been vulnerable to big plays and are giving up a generous 14.0 YPR this season. Of course, Allen Lazard is lurking. One of the two will get it done today, for sure. There’s a lot of talk about Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon splitting up the snaps and touches more evenly the rest of the way, and I can see that. Jones posted 17/110/1 scrimmage and Dillon had 11/59 rushing in this matchup back in Week 6, and I think Dillon will get a little more and Jones a little less this week.
Los Angeles Rams (8-4) at Arizona Cardinals (10-2)
Players I like more than usual: Sony Michel, Zach Ertz
Players I’m neutral on: Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Kyler Murray,
Players I like less than usual: Tyler Higbee, DeAndre Hopkins
Longshot Plays: Van Jefferson
Notes: With Darrell Henderson placed on the Covid list, he’s almost definitely out, and so therefore Sony Michel is a top-10 RB play. The Rams went heavy last week with an offensive lineup as a third TE and Michel looked good running it and he turned 27 opportunities into 127/1 scrimmage against the Jaguars, a decent run defense. Sony’s looking good against a Cardinal defense that is definitely easier to run on and is giving up 4.6 YPC and 8.5 receptions per game to RBs the last four weeks. Matthew Stafford has 295+ yards and three TDs in each of his first two games since LA’s Week 11 bye, and he 26/41 passes for 280 yards (6.8 YPA), 2 TDs, and one INT in this matchup back in Week 4. I can see something similar. Cooper Kupp has 7+ catches and 90+ yards in all but one game this season, and that was against the Cardinals. Kupp had only 5/64 receiving on 13 targets against the Cards in early October, but the Cards are giving up the sixth-most FPG out of the slot. Van Jefferson has taken over Robert Woods’ role and has a 22% target share since Woods went down. Jefferson caught all six of his targets for 90 yards and a TD in this matchup last time. The Cardinals have limited perimeter WRs Darnell Mooney (5/27 receiving) and D.K. Metcalf (4/31) in consecutive games, so Odell Beckham could be the guy who comes up small here. Tyler Higbee is just about a lost cause and the Cardinals are giving up the third-fewest FPG (8.3) to the position.
Kyler Murray is back healthy now, so he will run, which is everything. He posted 268/2 passing and 6/39 rushing against the Rams back in Week 4, and I can see something similar this week.
DeAndre Hopkins put up only 2/32/1 receiving last week, but Murray attempted just 15 passes in bad weather in Chicago. Hopkins, though, will likely see a lot of Jalen Ramsey. He posted 4/67 receiving on seven targets against Ramsey and the Cardinals first met the Rams back in Week 4, and I could see something similar. I want to like Zach Ertz this week, but he’s banged up. The Rams are allowing the seventh-most targets (7.9) to TEs, so I could see Ertz surprising in this one. Otherwise, it’s nearly impossible to handicap WRs A.J. Green, Christian Kirk, and Rondale Moore. The Cardinals will get Chase Edmonds back, so I’d pull back from expectations for James Conner. Still, Edmunds isn’t going to handle a massive workload, and they both got it done in this matchup last time. Edmonds posted 12/120 rushing and 4/19 receiving while Conner had 18/50/2 rushing and 2/16 receiving when these teams met in Week 4.
