Never Bury the Lede: If Mike Gesicki (-0.89) had the schedule Evan Engram had last year (+1.22), we could have expected him to score an additional +1.73 fantasy points per game. This would have been enough to finish 12th at the position (10.2) rather than 16th (8.5).
Other Strength of Schedule Articles
Quarterbacks Running Backs Wide Receivers
Which tight ends have the toughest or easiest fantasy schedules this year? Which tight ends had the toughest or easiest schedules last year? Or, what about the toughest or easiest schedules in the fantasy postseason? Or to start the season? Which tight ends saw their schedules improve the most or least? How big of an impact was that change in schedule? Can we quantify that change in real terms using fantasy points?
Luckily for our subscribers, we can answer all of these questions and more. But in order to do so, we first had to quantify strength of schedule. This is typically done by calculating a defense’s fantasy-point-per-game average (allowed) and then looking at the average for all players over a full season. This will also be our approach; however, we’ll be taking things one step further – we’re going to use a control for the opposing offense by measuring fantasy points per game over an opponent’s average.
For instance, last season, opposing tight ends averaged 5.0FPG over their season-long average when facing Arizona, which ranked worst in the league. (Arizona was the most favorable fantasy matchup for opposing tight ends, worth, on average, an additional 5.0 FPG.) On the opposite end of the spectrum, tight ends fell short of their season-long average by 3.7 points when facing Baltimore, which ranked best in the league. (Baltimore was the toughest fantasy matchup for opposing tight ends.) Calculating these numbers for all teams and then applying the full-season average for all players quantifies in real terms which players had the easiest and most difficult schedules for fantasy last year. We can also use these numbers to project out strength of schedule for each team and each position in 2020.
While this methodology isn’t perfect – of course roster turnover and coaching changes will complicate things – strength of schedule doesn’t not matter. This data is still far more actionable that it is not. In fantasy football, like poker, there may only be small edges to be gained, but those small edges can be compounded to yield a massive advantage. And they must be taken advantage of, and are by the most dominant players. That’s the case with strength of schedule – another small edge to be realized, and, actually, at the polar extremes, it might matter a lot more than you’d expect. Here’s an example:
Travis Kelce’s strength of schedule ranked fourth-toughest last year, worth on average -0.61 (team tight end) FPG. Because he was responsible for 92% of the fantasy points scored by Kansas City’s tight ends last year (in games active), we can say that – adjusted for strength of schedule, or if he had a perfectly average strength of schedule last year – he should have averaged +0.56 more fantasy points per game. Compare that to George Kittle, who had a slightly favorable schedule, and would have averaged -0.17 FPG with a perfectly neutral schedule. They finished last season tied with 15.9 FPG, but if not for strength of schedule, Kelce (16.5) would have bested Kittle (15.7) by +0.7 fantasy points per game.
Clearly, strength of schedule – something totally outside of a player’s control and entirely due to luck – can have a big impact for fantasy.
Best Overall Schedule (2019)
1. Evan Engram, Average Matchup: +1.22
2. Will Dissly (+1.10)
3. T.J. Hockenson (+0.89)
4. Greg Olsen (+0.63)
5. Dallas Goedert (+0.55)
Worst Overall Schedule (2019)
1. Mike Gesicki, Average Matchup -0.89
2. Jonnu Smith (-0.62)
3. Travis Kelce (-0.61)
4. Jared Cook (-0.30)
5. O.J. Howard (-0.29)
2020 Schedule
PDF Download available here.
CSV Download available here.
Best Overall Schedule (Weeks 1-16)
1. Zach Ertz / Dallas Goedert (+1.10)
2. Evan Engram (+0.99)
3. George Kittle (+0.90)
4. Tyler Higbee / Gerald Everett (+0.73)
5. Mark Andrews (+0.68)
Worst Overall Schedule (Weeks 1-16)
1. Travis Kelce (-1.02)
2. Jared Cook (-0.84)
3. Jonnu Smith (-0.73)
4. Rob Gronkowski / O.J. Howard (-0.61)
5. Darren Waller (-0.58)
5. Mike Gesicki (-0.58)
Off to a Hot Start (First Four Weeks)
1. Matt LaCosse / Devin Asiasi (+1.66)
2. Josh Oliver (+1.61)
3. Mark Andrews (+1.57)
4. T.J. Hockenson (+1.33)
5. Hayden Hurst (+1.25)
Slow Starters (First Four Weeks)
1. Travis Kelce (-2.22)
2. Darren Waller (-2.10)
3. Rob Gronkowski / O.J. Howard (-1.45)
3. Jordan Akins / Darren Fells (-1.45)
5. Mike Gesicki (-1.34)
Best Playoff Schedule (Weeks 14-16)
1. George Kittle (+3.84)
2. Zach Ertz / Dallas Goedert (+2.98)
3. Chris Herndon (+1.35)
4. Evan Engram (+1.16)
5. T.J. Hockenson (+0.97)
Worst Playoff Schedule (Weeks 14-16)
1. Noah Fant (-3.12)
2. Austin Hooper (-1.81)
3. Rob Gronkowski / O.J. Howard (-1.44)
4. Jeremy Sprinke (-1.28)
5. Tyler Higbee / Gerald Everett (-1.28)
Schedule Change (in Real Points)
Most Improved Schedule
1. George Kittle (+0.67)
2. Zach Ertz (+0.49)
3. Tyler Higbee (+0.27)
4. Mike Gesicki (+0.25)
5. Dallas Goedert (+0.22)
Least Improved Schedule
1. T.J. Hockenson (-0.57)
2. Will Dissly (-0.52)
3. Jared Cook (-0.43)
4. Travis Kelce (-0.38)
5. Darren Waller (-0.30)
Thoughts / Notes / Dank Stats
- For full transparency, strength of schedule is simply less important for tight ends than any for any of the other positions. However, that’s also captured in our results to some degree. The numerical rating for the most-improved tight end (+0.67) is well below that of the most-improved quarterback (+1.88), running back (+1.82), and wide receiver (+0.96).
- T.J. Hockenson seems to be one of the biggest losers by strength of schedule, falling from last year’s third-softest schedule (+0.89) to one that is just about perfectly average this season (+0.01). Keep in mind, Hockenson scored 31% of his fantasy points in just one game last year, and that game came against Arizona – the league’s worst defense against tight ends.
- After the third-toughest schedule in 2019 (-0.61), things get even worse for Travis Kelce this year, who has the league’s most-difficult schedule (-1.02) this season. On top of that, he also has the most difficult schedule to start the season (-2.22), implying he might be someone to target as a buy-low via trade rather than someone to draft.
- Contrast this with George Kittle’s schedule which ranks third-easiest overall (+0.90) and easiest in the playoffs (+3.84), and it might be worth passing on Kelce in the second-round to take Kittle in the third. Kittle was already due for a massive touchdown regression too, finding the end zone just five times last year despite totaling 1,053 receiving yards. He also had three touchdowns (worth 25.1 fantasy points) called back due to penalty. Kittle and Kelce both finished first at the position with 15.9 fantasy points per game, but if we factor in those lost touchdowns due to penalty, and the difference in schedule (applied to last year’s numbers), Kittle would have out-scored Kelce by a whopping 18.4 fantasy points per game to 15.5.
- Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert also get a nice little boost, with the league’s most favorable tight end schedule (+1.10).
- Tyler Higbee’s schedule appears to be a major improvement, but I don’t know how true that is. He averaged 5.3 fantasy points per game through the first 12 weeks of the season, and then 21.4 through the team’s final five games. This had far more to do with an injury to Gerald Everett and a schematic shift towards more 12 personnel, but he also benefited from a soft spot in his schedule. Through the first 12 weeks, his schedule was rather difficult (-0.67), but through the final five weeks of the season, he actually had the softest schedule at the position (+2.20).
Notes: Special thanks to Mike Beers of Rotoviz for his help with this multi-year project.
