General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain
Dalvin Cook is going to be an extremely popular captain with Alexander Mattison out for this game. Cook normally gets the bulk of the work, but now has virtually no chance of being sniped at the goal line. The Bears are allowing 122 yards on the ground and rank 15th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Cook is the type of captain I always like to slot in because he doesn’t need 30 carries to hit optimal lineups, though he may in fact see that many touches. Every time Cook hits a hole he has a chance to go the distance. I would shy away from players that require touchdowns in lineups that have Cook, like Tyler Conklin.
Justin Jefferson has become a top five receiver in the league going forward and likely won’t have his partner in crime Adam Thielen to eat into his workload at all. There are certain situations where an absent receiver gets the ball spread around to the other players on the offense, and then there is Jefferson’s situation. He saw 50% of targets and air yards last week without Thielen. Dede Westbrook, the third receiver option barely saw a target.
KJ Osborn notched a 30% target share and 36% air yards share last week without Thielen. He’s a sneaky captain with a ton of leverage off Cook and Jefferson. With that volume he definitely has the chance to hit the optimal captain if he can score a touchdown and hit the bonus.
David Montgomery quietly has become a three-down back in Chicago, seeing 16 targets in the last two weeks. He doesn’t get spelled every so often, but he isn’t strictly a two-down back like he had been in the past. The Vikings can really get gashed by running backs and I can see them leaning on a Montgomery to keep them in this game. Justin Fields probably needs rushing touchdowns to hit the optimal lineup so he and Montgomery have a bit of negative correlation, I would limit my lineups that contain both.
Darnell Mooney will again be the lead dog through the air for the Bears. He’s starting to run pretty much every depth route in the bag at this point in the year. That said, he’ll remain the top deep threat which is what makes him a solid captain option, especially if Allen Robinson and Marquise Goodwin remain out.
Justin Fields is the dual threat type quarterback that I have no qualms about slotting into the captain spot in this game environment. There’s no worry about Fields’ wheels as he came back and ripped off 75 yards on the ground against the Packers last week. You can roster him as a passing captain or rushing captain, meaning with one pass-catcher, or up to three in the flex.
Flex
Kirk Cousins just isn’t spreading the ball around enough for him, a statue quarterback, to get into the optimal captain spot at a higher rate than he’ll be rostered there. Jefferson, Osborn, and Conklin will likely be the only targets for him in this game. He makes for a solid flex play, but it will be tough for him to outshine his pass-catchers in this game.
Kene Ngwanwu will most likely be the back up running back, so he is definitely viable, but I like CJ Ham a bit more as he has a role out of the backfield as a pass-catcher and can sneak into the optimal lineup if he breaks off a screen or flat route for a big gain.
There really aren’t many Vikings outside of the top options that I’m confident in because they keep the action so concentrated. Chris Herndon and Luke Stocker played a combined 40% of snaps last week. Ihmir Smith-Marsette will probably work as the third receiver with Thielen most likely sitting and Dede Westbrook dealing with covid. All three of these guys are speculative one or two lineup fliers if you are creating 20 or more.
The Bears are a different story as they have a bunch of ancillary pieces that can get involved on offense. Jakeem Grant and Damiere Byrd are excellent secondary pieces, both have had an impact over the last month. With allen Robinson out, that puts Byrd on the field a lot more I would guess as he can fill that outside role a bit better. I like pairing him with Fields where you can. Jakeem Grant is more of a gadget-type behind the line of scrimmage gimmick player. When rostering Grant be careful not to pair him up with Montgomery too often because he’ll eat into his workload with jet sweeps and shorter checkdowns.
Damien Williams and Kalil Herbert have both been seeing a handful of snaps totaling about 10% each so I’m not too excited to get these guys in my lineups. It’s the David Montgomery show, so I’d use the one or two lineup approach for these two if you are making 20+.
Cole Kmet and Jimmy Graham play the same position but they couldn’t be different in the way they’ll get into the optimal lineup. Graham is an end zone option for Fields. The Bears constantly scheme Graham open when they get inside the ten yard line. Because of this, he makes a good pairing with Justin Fields captain. Kmet profiles more as a volume tight end. I like rostering him in Vikings heavy lineups projecting up-tempo garbage time targets for the Notre Dame product.
Lineup Starters
Captain: Dalvin Cook
Flex: KJ Osborn, Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney
Captain: Justin Jefferson
Flex: Kirk Cousins, Jakeem Grant, Cole Kmet
Captain: KJ Osborn
Flex: Kirk Cousins, David Montgomery, Damiere Byrd
Captain: David Montgomery
Flex: Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Tyler Conklin
Captain: Justin Fields
Flex: Darnell Mooney, Jimmy Graham, Dalvin Cook
