Scott Barrett's Week 6 DFS Breakdown

What is this column? Each week I’ll be listing the best and most-interesting plays of the week, grouped by position, and ranked and tiered in some sort of descending order. Keep in mind, we’re looking only at the players available on the main slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel.

This article is long. It’s going to be long every week. Ideally, it’s all you should need to know to be able to profit playing DFS in any given week.

Be sure to also watch our DFS Preview livestream every Friday at 3PM EST. Be sure to get in our Discord — if you’re not in there already, you’re missing out on a lot of important news updates as well as personal guidance and advice from our experts. And, most importantly, be sure to check back on Sunday mornings for the “Sunday Morning Update” – basically a TLDR version of this piece along with any injury-related updates we might need.

Anyway, let’s dive in…

TLDR: Too Long, Didn’t Read

Quarterbacks

For cash, on both sites, my lean is to just play Lamar Jackson. Though, Tyler Heinicke is also in play on DraftKings and Patrick Mahomes is a close No. 2 on FanDuel.

Lamar Jackson has hit at least 18.0 fantasy points (or 20.0 DK fantasy points) in all five of his games, averaging 26.8 FPG (or 29.2 DK FPG). It’s a fairly tough on paper matchup, but Jackson has been playing out of his mind and, due to his mobility, is about as safe and steady as any player in fantasy.

Patrick Mahomes is also extremely in play. He’s hit 21.0 fantasy points in all five games, averaging 27.4 FPG (or 28.8 DK FPG). And now he gets a dream matchup against a Washington defense that’s giving up the most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs (+5.9). In other words, we should be expecting about 33.3 fantasy points this week. Jackson is technically the better “value” but if you can afford Mahomes (and maybe you can with so much value this week), I’d be happy to go that route.

Taylor Heinecke put up at least 20 fantasy points in four straight games before flopping last week, but now gets a much softer matchup against the Chiefs. Through five games, Kansas City is allowing 7.1 yards per play (most), 3.29 points per drive (most), and they have generated a sack on just 4% of pass plays (second-lowest rate). They’re also giving up the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs (+5.5), which would give Heinecke a 24.4-point expectation (4.2X). The one concern is the team is absolutely devastated by injuries (WR Curtis Samuel is out, WR Cam Sims is out, WR Dyami Brown is questionable, RB Antonio Gibson is questionable, and WR Terry McLaurin is questionable). You can’t play him if McLaurin is out or limited, but that seems highly unlikely [1,2].

Joe Burrow is a little interesting. Detroit is giving up the second-most fantasy points per pass attempt (0.596) and third-highest passer rating (111.7) to opposing QBs. But he’s still a little too risky for cash, because you can easily run on Detroit, and that’s been Cincinnati’s preference all season.

Carson Wentz is vaguely in play, if only because he’s $100 more expensive than Brandon Allen on DraftKings and the same price as Davis Mills on FanDuel. Over the last two weeks, he averages 315.0 passing yards and 2.0 passing touchdowns per game. And Houston ranks 8th-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing QBs (+2.6). Though, like with Burrow, this should be a run-heavy affair.

In tournaments, as always, get weird, get creative, have fun. The QB position is always more about the stack (and the leverage you’ll gain if that stack hits) than the individual QB-play itself…

It’s still a bit early for me, but for tournaments, I’m liking Washington and Kansas City gamestacks. For cash, no one really stands out. Tyreek Hill and Terry McLaurin are both banged up, so they’re hard to trust. But this game offers the highest over/under of the slate (55.5, +4.0 more than next-closest), with two of the league’s three worst pass defenses facing off against each other, and ownership projects to be inexplicably low. Since I’m probably just playing Jackson in cash, I won’t have too much exposure to the non-RBs from this game. But for tournaments, I’ll embrace the risk and chase the upside.

Running Backs

Mispriced Backup RBs Now Starting

If you’ve been reading my work for a number of years, you know I love weeks like this. Weeks where a high-end starting RB will be inactive, and that RB’s now mispriced backup will be thrust into a bell cow workload.

That’s already paid off well for us this season, with backup RB Alexander Mattison averaging 24.7 XFP (RB1) and 25.2 FPG (RB2) across the two games Dalvin Cook has missed. Chuba Hubbard wasn’t quite on this level, but he’s done well enough. Since McCaffrey went down in the second quarter of Week 3, Hubbard has averaged 17.4 XFP (RB7) and 15.0 fantasy points per four quarters (RB16). (He’s only a marginal value this week, however, priced as a high-end RB2 on both sites.)

Khalil Herbert, DeVontae Booker, Darrel Williams might not be very good. But, for fantasy RBs, volume rules the day. And so, they might all be RB3-level talents, but they’re locked in to fringe-RB1 to high-end RB2 levels of volume, and should be viewed as mid-range RB2s for fantasy. And as such, they’re prispriced as RB3s.

- Khalil Herbert [DK: RB36, FD: RB31]

Even with Damien Williams active last week, Herbert handled 53% of the team’s snaps and 42% of the backfield XFP, gaining 75 yards on 18 carries (0 targets). He’s now locked into what’s possibly going to be an every-snap role for a team that heavily features the RB and run game. Last week, Herbert and Williams combined for a near-league-high 26.1 XFP (34 carries, 3 targets).

Ryan Nall is the only other RB on the roster — he’s had 3 snaps all year, and has just 13 touches across three NFL seasons. Though, 62% of those touches came as a receiver, and Herbert has zero targets on the year and wasn’t used much as a receiver in college, so maybe he steals a portion of the passing down work. That’s actually a fairly significant concern, as the Bears are 5.5-point underdogs against a Packers defense which is one of only 7 teams to give up more fantasy points to RBs through the air than on the ground.

Still, he’s no doubt one of the best pure values on the entire slate.

- Devontae Booker [DK: RB23, FD: RB24]

Last week Saquon Barkley played on just 6 snaps (9%) before suffering a low ankle sprain which will cause him to miss the team’s next 2-4 games.

In his absence, Booker was a full-on bell cow, earning 56 of 58 snaps (97%), 16 of 17 carries, and 4 of 4 targets out of the backfield. RB Elijhaa Penny played on just 6 snaps, earning 1 carry and 0 targets. Although Booker wasn’t very efficient (3.05 yards per touch), his volume (25.9 XFP) was best of any RB on the week, and he found the end zone twice, scoring 20.8 fantasy points.

The Rams rank as a perfectly neutral matchup for RBs by just about every metric, though projected gamescript is extremely bad (+9.0). Luckily, that’s something most near-every-snap bell cow RBs can rise above, so long as they’re also seeing usage in the passing game.

- Darrel Williams [DK: RB28, FD: RB38]:

Clyde Edwards-Helaire is now on injured reserve, and so we should expect Darrel Williams to assume his old role (at a minimum). Or maybe, CEH’s old role plus goal-line usage — he is the only Chiefs player with a carry inside the five yard line, scoring twice on three attempts. Minus CEH, Williams handled 80% of the team’s backfield XFP last week, with Jerick McKinnon getting the other 20%. Again, minus CEH, he played on 56% of the snaps, earning 5 of 6 carries and 6 of 8 targets out of the backfield. Though he only ran 2 more routes than McKinnon (22 of 24), and that’s a concern, though maybe not this week, as the Chiefs are favored by 6.5-points. Otherwise the on-paper matchup is fairly neutral.

“Expensive RB Values”

Notes: The DFS SuperModel has not yet adjusted for Nick Chubb’s absence.

In weeks we get a mispriced backup now serving in a bell cow capacity… Or in weeks like this where we get multiple mispriced backups now serving in a bell cow capacity, I typically go all in.

But the problem with that this week is, they’re technically not even the best values at the RB position.

Per the DFS SuperModel, the three best RB values on DraftKings are: Austin Ekeler (+$1,269), Ezekiel Elliott (+$1,033), and then Jonathan Taylor (+$869). Khalil Herbert ranks 4th (+$774) and Darrel Williams ranks 5th (+$689).

On FanDuel it’s a little bit tighter. Darrel Williams ranks best (+$1200) and Herbert ranks 2nd-best (+$817). Though Ekeler (+$576) and Taylor (+$612) are right behind them.

- Austin Ekeler [DK: RB2, FD: RB3]

Ekeler came into Week 1 with a fairly serious hamstring injury, which we know was fairly serious because he (uncharacteristically to him) didn’t see a single target. Since then, he's averaging 13.3 carries, 6.5 targets, 17.8 XFP (5th), and 26.9 FPG (2nd) on a 71% share of the backfield XFP (8th). This is quite easily the best usage of his career, and he’s long been (behind only Alvin Kamara) the most efficient RB in fantasy. This week, he gets a Ravens defense that ranks 8th-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (+4.4), 12th-worst in rushing FPG allowed (15.2), and 3rd-worst in receiving FPG allowed (14.0) to opposing RBs. On a week without Derrick Henry, he’s the heavy favorite to finish as the highest-scoring RB of the week. Though he’s about $800-1200 off from where the RB1 in any given week would typically be priced.

- Ezekiel Elliott [DK: RB6, FD: RB4]

Elliott is a little banged up, which might be a concern, though he was banged up last week and still smashed. Dallas’ offensive line is seemingly back to being as elite as it was during Elliott’s glory days, and Elliott looks great as well (PFF's highest-graded runner since Week 2). Since Week 2, Elliott averages 19.0 carries, 2.8 targets, 2.5 opportunities inside the 10-yard-line (2nd), 17.2 XFP (7th), and 24.0 DK FPG (5th). And he's hit at least 23.0 DK fantasy points in three straight games. However, the matchup is only neutral on paper. And he played on a season-low 60% of the team's snaps last week (down from a prior season-low of 70%). And Pollard is still stealing touches (10 or more in four straight games, 18 last week). And Pollard is also playing extremely well (6.8 YPC), which is no surprise… Ultimately, he’s a fine play, but I don’t like him quite as much as the SuperModel.

- Jonathan Taylor [DK: RB8, FD: RB8]

Only a few short weeks ago, Taylor was our No. 1 positive regression candidate. In the two weeks since, he’s averaging 15.5 carries, 3.5 targets, 141.5 YFS, and 26.2 FPG. He’s still capped at something like 55% of the team’s snaps, and Marlon Mack (inexplicably) is still getting meaningful work. But he’s an easy top-5 RB this week, favored by 10.0-points against a Texans defense that ranks 5th-worst in YPC allowed (4.75) and 7th-worst in rushing YPG allowed (112.2). In his career, Taylor has averaged 22.4 DraftKings FPG and 20.4 Fanduel FPG when the Colts are favored by 7.5-points or more (4 such games).

Notes: If Marlon Mack is a surprise inactive (due to trade rumors), Taylor should get a boost of about 25% (~6.0 points) to his 20.5-point expectation. He’d become a near-must-play.

Mid Tier RBs

And though the SuperModel prefers the higher-priced RBs, I greatly prefer those priced in the middle tier.

- Kareem Hunt [DK: RB13, FD: RB9]

For the third straight week (two wins, one loss), Hunt has seen better usage than Nick Chubb. Over this span, Hunt ranks 4th in XFP per game (19.2) and 5th in FPG (23.3). Chubb ranks 15th (14.7) and 20th (14.6)…

He was already an extremely tempting value heading into this week, and now Chubb has been ruled out for Week 6, making Hunt a glaring must-play.

In the four games Chubb missed last year, Hunt averaged 16.3 carries and 3.5 targets per game, playing on 89% of the snaps across the latter two games within this sample. And, keep in mind, Hunt was also seriously banged up for much of this stretch, star OG Wyatt Teller only played 14 total snaps across this span, and this was also a brutal stretch of schedule for Hunt.

He’s an easy must-play for cash this week, against a Cardinals defense that ranks 2nd-worst in YPC allowed (5.14) to opposing RBs.

- Joe Mixon [DK: RB10, FD: RB12]

If you listened to the livestream, you’d know that Mixon is probably Johnny’s favorite GPP-play on the entire slate. With Samaje Perine out, he’s locked into a true bell cow role, with legitimate passing-down usage. (Think usage along the lines of what he saw in Week 1: 29 carries, 4 targets.) He's a little banged up, but HC Zac Taylor said he'll get a full workload on Sunday. And Graham, after reviewing the tape, said he "had close to his normal burst and shiftiness last week." And this week’s matchup couldn’t be better, favored by 3.5-points against a Detroit defense that’s given up a league-high 10.4 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs.

- D’Andre Swift [DK: RB11, FD: RB11]

I might as well just copy and paste everything I wrote about Swift last week, because he’s an incredibly strong play and his price has barely budged. He ranks 4th in XFP per game (18.6) and 7th in FPG (18.2), but he’s just the 11th highest-priced RB on the slate on both sites. Cincinnati is giving up the 2nd-most receiving FPG to enemy RBs (14.4), and Swift is basically the team's WR1. (His 17% target share leads the team and ranks 3rd among all RBs)

- Darrell Henderson [DK: RB14, FD: RB10]

Adjusting for injury, Henderson is averaging: 16.3 carries, 3.5 targets, 102.4 YFS (6th-best), 15.5 XFP (13th), and 17.8 fantasy points per four quarters (10th). More impressively, he’s commanded (still adjusting for injury) an 85% snap share (2nd-best), while also handling 80% of the carries and 93% of the targets out of the backfield.

This is easy mid-range to low-end RB1 levels of usage and production. And now, favored by 9.0-points behind the 2nd-highest implied point total of the slate, he gets a Giants defense that ranks bottom-3 in YPC allowed, bottom-3 in yards allowed before contact per attempt, and bottom-10 in rushing FPG allowed to opposing RBs. So, needless to say, he looks fairly mispriced as just the RB14 on DraftKings.

The only problem is, Sony Michel handled a much larger share of the work last week. He played on 34% of the team’s snaps, earning 11 of 28 carries and 1 of 2 targets out of the backfield. HC Sean McVay told reporters that this sort of usage was “reflective of a longer-term plan for the two (depending, of course, on the matchup and situation).”

So, with Henderson unlikely to continue to see the full-on bell cow usage he received through the first month of the season, he’s only a “very good play” and not a great one.

Other / Notes

- Yeah, so, there are a ton of great RB plays and that’s the position that’s going to define the slate. Good luck with that.

- Wes Huber made a very compelling argument for Antonio Gibson here, who I like quite a bit on FanDuel.

-The matchup isn’t great, but Josh Jacobs is vaguely in play for reasons outlined here.

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers

[DK: WR1, FD: WR2]

From Jake Tribbey’s DFS Values:

Adams is on a historic run. Since the beginning of the 2020 season, Adams is averaging 24.8 FPG. Over a full season, that would rank as the 5th-best fantasy season by a WR all-time. This year, Adams leads all WRs in XFP per game (22.6), target share (38.1%), and air yards per game (143.6). Over the last three weeks, Adams has seen a completely ridiculous 45% target share, which is 12.6% higher than the next closest player. Adams has been, and almost surely will continue to be, the best WR in fantasy football. And it may not be close.

Still, Adams Week 6 price tag of $8,500 on Fanduel is $483 cheaper than his price over his last 12 games, and he’s the WR2 (by salary), behind Tyreek Hill. And then there’s the strong matchup against Chicago - PFF’s 5th-worst graded coverage unit (44.4 team coverage grade). With the exception of rising star Jaylon Johnson (71.8 coverage grade), the Bears don’t have a player in their secondary with a PFF coverage grade above 56.0 (min. 100 coverage snaps). Adams doesn’t have problems getting open against some of the best corners in the league, so this soft Bears coverage unit could easily be looking like swiss cheese come Sunday. Adams is a solid value on DraftKings, but an elite value on Fanduel as the WR2 (by salary). He should be heavily considered in all formats.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

[DK: WR9, FD: WR6]

From Start / Sit:

Ja'Marr Chase totals 98.4 fantasy points, which ranks 7th among all WRs. That's also — behind only Randy Moss (104.7) — the 2nd-most fantasy points by any rookie WR in their first five career games all-time.

What’s most impressive about this is Chase isn’t really seeing good volume. He ranks just 32nd among WRs in XFP (61.4). So, he’s producing like a mid-range WR1 on low-end WR3-levels of volume. And, as such, he’s the No. 1 XFP regression candidate at any position (+37.0).

Although I do think an efficiency regression is coming, I wouldn’t be surprised if he continues to out-perform his expectation at one of the highest rates in the league. After all, is this not the best WR prospect since Julio Jones? And, in any case, there’s no way the regression comes this week.

Although Stefon Diggs leads the league in deep targets, Chase is only one target behind, and he's been far more productive on those deep targets. He leads all WRs in deep receptions (6), deep yards (261), deep touchdowns (4), and fantasy points scored on deep targets (56.1, 57% of his total production). And although Diggs’ matchup against Tennessee is the best-possible matchup for a deep threat, Chase’s matchup against Detroit is the clear No. 2, as Detroit has given up 153.0 receiving YPG (2nd-most) to opposing WRs on deep passes. And Detroit also ranks 6th-worst in fantasy points allowed per target (2.13) to opposing outside WRs.

We have Chase ranked as a top-3 WR this week. Yes, you read that right.

Brandin Cooks, WR, Houston Texans

[DK: WR16, FD: WR17]

From Start / Sit:

Through the first three weeks of the season, Cooks ranked 5th in DK FPG (22.6, low of 21.2) and 4th in targets per game (10.7). But, over the last two weeks, he ranks just 72nd in FPG (7.5).

But, in his defense, he did walk away with a 54% YMS in Week 4 (12th-highest of any player in any week this season). And in Week 5, we expected him to flop, as New England always sells out to stop an opposing team’s top option. This opened things up for the rest of the offense, as QB Davis Mills posted a shocking and impressive 21/29-312-3-0 line, though only 3 catches and 23 yards went to Cooks.

Though somewhat understandable or predictable, the last two weeks have been rough, but we’re expecting him to get right back on track this week. Indianapolis ranks 7th-worst in FPG allowed to opposing outside WRs (25.0). And they’ve given up big games to fellow WR1s: Tyler Lockett (26.0) or D.K. Metcalf (16.0), Cooper Kupp (36.8), DeVante Parker (17.7), and Marquise Brown (33.5).

Given the matchup, and Cooks’ elite usage (6th in XFP%), we’re expecting mid-range WR2-levels of production this week.

Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

[DK: WR11, FD: WR11]

The only thing I’ll add to the analysis further below is that if Mike Williams (questionable) sits, Allen becomes a must-play. Even if Williams plays, I still love Allen. From Start / Sit:

If (Stefon) Diggs isn’t your No. 1 buy-low target of the week, it’s Allen.

Allen, like Diggs, has been remarkably consistent, hitting double-digit fantasy points in all five of his games (one of only 8 WRs to have accomplished this feat). Like Diggs, his volume has been excellent. He’s one of only three players to hit 15.0 XFP in all five of his games — Cooper Kupp and Derrick Henry are the other two. Among all WRs, he ranks just 21st in FPG (15.4) but 4th in XFP per game (19.9).

But Allen hasn’t been as inefficient as his -4.5-point PAR implies. Rather, he’s been incredibly unlucky, seeing 5 targets and a league-high 62 receiving yards called back due to penalty. If those plays counted, Allen would rank 2nd in total targets, 10th in receiving yards, and 13th among WRs in total fantasy points scored.

Like with Diggs, an efficiency regression is inevitable. And I’m betting on the regression hitting like a Mack Truck this week. Allen runs 61% of his routes from the slot, and his Week 6 matchup (Baltimore) is the premier slot funnel defense. They’ve given up the 6th-most FPG to opposing slot WRs but the 4th-fewest FPG to opposing outside WRs. So, look for Allen to post a big game, somewhat at Mike Williams’ expense.

Jakobi Meyers, WR, New England Patriots

[DK: WR20, FD: WR27]

The only thing I’ll add to the analysis below, is that even before news broke regarding the Trevon Diggs injury (game-time decision), Dallas was looking like an immense reverse slot funnel defense, ranking worst in FPG allowed to outside WRs but 10th best in FPG allowed to slot WRs. So, I don’t think this matchup is quite as good as Tribbey implied.

From Jake Tribbey’s DFS Values:

Meyers ranks 12th in targets per game (9.2), 16th in target share (25%), 5th in routes (199), and 7th in receptions (31), but his fantasy production hasn’t kept pace, as he’s the WR36 by FPG (12.6). Unbelievably, Meyers has 116 career receptions, and 0 TDs. That’s the 6th-most receptions without a receiving TD ever, and Meyers has fallen short of his TD expectation by 2.3 TDs since the start of 2020. Thankfully, Week 6 ushers in a solid matchup against Dallas, who’s allowed 30.3 FPG to opposing WRs (6th-worst). With the Patriots as 4-point underdogs, a pass-happy Week 6 for New England appears more than likely.

He’s seeing WR1 levels of volume, is a screaming TD regression candidate, and has a great matchup. Meyers may slide under the radar in Week 6 with DFS players potentially frustrated by the lack of big games despite great usage, and that makes him an ideal GPP play.

Michael Pittman, WR, Indianapolis Colts

[DK: WR20, FD: WR27]

From Wes Huber’s The Bottomline:

I’m going to keep this recommendation very brief since I think the populus should already be on Michael Pittman Jr. this weekend. Since the general population is discounting his recent body of work, I want to make very clear to Fantasy Points’ premium subscribers the opportunity that oversight presents. Pittman has only played with Carson Wentz under center for five games. Remove the previous 14 games played with Philip Rivers that resulted in a single receiving TD from your memory. The previous four games are my focus. During that time, Wentz has targeted Pittman an average of 9.3 times/game. Those four games have returned 6.5 receptions, 84.8 yards, and 17.4 FPG. And let’s keep the expectations right there. At 17.4 FPG, we have profit numbers on a WR owned in just a hair over 5% of large-scale GPP lineups.

The Bottom Line: In four games this season, Terrance Mitchell is distributing 1.25 YPCS (46th among 91 qualified outside CBs), 0.27 FP/CS (50th), 0.44 AY/CS (51st), and a 93.8 passer rating (42nd). He will do half of his work on Pittman. For all of the reasons presented above in the Wentz write-up, I am anticipating that Pittman will benefit from the general belief that Houston will be blown out of the water by Indianapolis.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions

[DK: WR41, FD: WR50]

From Jake Tribbey’s DFS Values:

It hasn’t been talked about much, but Amon-Ra St. Brown has actually led Lions’ WRs and TEs in targets (16) and XFP per game (15.0) over the last two weeks. 15.0 XFP ranks 22nd over the last two weeks, and would rank 24th among WRs this season. Still, St. Brown is WR41 (by salary) on DraftKings, and WR50 on Fanduel. He draws a solid matchup against a Bengals defense that’s allowed 277.3 passing yards over their last 3 games (10th-worst). And the Lions are 3-point underdogs, so we are likely to see a continuation of their 64% pass rate (6th-most), should the Bengals get out ahead early. With St. Brown emerging as the WR1 on this team, he’s clearly underpriced, and that makes him an obvious value.

Other / Notes

- As always, and especially on weeks like this, you need at least some ownership to Tyreek Hill, who always offers unrivaled slate-busting potential. Washington leads all defenses in missed tackles and ranks 2nd-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing WRs (+11.3). If he were fully healthy, I might like him even more than Davante Adams. But he’s not (quad), and throughout his career, Hill has often looked like a different player when banged up… If he’s surprisingly out, Mecole Hardman becomes an incredible play. He was drafted (amidst threats of a full-season suspension) to play the Hill-role in the offense. And I think that’s what we’d see this week if he’s out. When Hill missed four games in 2019, Hardman (in just his 2nd through 5th career game) scored 10.5, 12.5, 6.1, and 16.6 fantasy points.

- Prior to last week, D.J. Moore ranked 7th in XFP per game (18.5) and 4th in FPG (22.4). And 75% of those games came in blowouts that were no longer competitive by the start of the second half. (He still leads all players in targets, catches, and yards in the first half.) He ranks just 7th (DK) and 8th (FD) in salary though no one wants to play him after locking him in last week. The on-paper matchup is neutral at worst, and volume should be good again without Christian McCaffrey and Dan Arnold.

- Similarly to Moore, Cooper Kupp is an absolute monster. He’s seen double-digit targets in every game thus far and ranks 1st in FPG (23.8) and 2nd in XFP per game (21.3). Should we be viewing him exactly the same as Adams? Because he’s seen identical usage, and he’s been more consistent and productive. And he’s only 85% of Adams’ salary this week on DraftKings. And the Giants are a neutral at-worst matchup.

- Rashod Bateman, in his first ever NFL game, is legitimately in play with Sammy Watkins out. Prior to last week (injury), Watkins earned at least 7 targets in all 4 games, averaging 64.3 YPG. Bateman is min. price on DraftKings, though there’s a good chance they ease him and he’s capped at something like 40% of the team’s snaps.

- I’m not allowed to ever write up Marquise Brown in this space, because every time I do he falls back down to earth. So, just know that he ranks 6th among all WRs in FPG (20.7) but 15th (DK) and 13th (FD) in salary. However, one concern is Los Angeles ranks 2nd-best in YPG allowed to WRs on deep passes (28.3).

- I think Kadarius Toney vs. Sterling Shepard is a big decision this week. Who plays in the slot? Who plays outside? With Jalen Ramsey in the slot more, the Rams are giving up the 6th-most FPG to opposing outside WRs. Does Shepard resume his old slot-only role? Prior to injury, Shepard averaged 8.5 targets per game over his previous 12 games, and had scored at least 17.5 fantasy points in each of his previous four games. Or is Toney just the new rookie Tyreek Hill / Odell Beckham Jr.? My gut was telling me “yes” back in August. You can read my full thoughts on Toney here.

- Every other site loves Tee Higgins as a must-play this week. We like him, but we’re a lot less optimistic. Chase is looking like he might just be the Bengals’ alpha WR1, Higgins played on only 70% of the team’s snaps last week, we don’t think Cincinnati needs to lean pass-heavy this week, and the matchup is far more in Chase’s favor than Higgins’.

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens

[DK: TE3, FD: TE5]

From Start / Sit:

Andrews busted his scoring slump in a big way last week and was a huge part of the Ravens come from behind win, posting 11/147/2 while adding not one but two (!!) octopuses (TD + 2-point conversions). While we obviously can’t expect another 40-burger, this has the makings of another strong game with the Ravens likely trading points with Justin Herbert and the Chargers all day long. While L.A.’s defense has been stellar at limiting big plays against wide receivers, the trade-off is that tight ends are getting free underneath against their zone coverage. To be fair, the Chargers have faced Kelce and Waller, but David Njoku just shredded them last week as well. Overall, L.A. has the worst tight end defense in the league right now by the numbers and are giving up 2.43 fantasy points per target (most) and 81.3 yards per game (second-most) to the position. (GB)

Andrews went absolutely nuclear on MNF (13 targets, 41.7 fantasy points), but salaries had already been released by that point. And so, he’s now extremely mispriced as just the TE5 on FanDuel and the TE3 on DraftKings ($400 off the TE6).

Among all slate-eligible TEs, Andrews ranks 2nd in air yards per game (90.0), 3rd in targets per game (8.2), 3rd in XFP per game (14.1), 1st in receiving YPG (80.0), and 2nd in FPG (16.2, +1.8 more than Darren Waller). The Chargers rank 3rd-worst in FPG allowed to opposing TEs (18.9), with 35.1% of their total receiving production allowed going to TEs (most).

He’s a phenomenal value, and probably a must-play on FanDuel.

Ricky Seals-Jones, TE, Washington Football Team

[DK: TE18, FD: TE14]

The only thing I’ll add to the analysis below is that WR Curtis Samuel is out, WR Cam Sims is out, WR Dyami Brown is questionable, RB Antonio Gibson is questionable, and WR Terry McLaurin is questionable. So, he’s absolutely a phenomenal play on a projected target-per-dollar basis.

From Jake Tribbey’s DFS Values:

In Week 5, Ricky Seals-Jones essentially became Logan Thomas. RSJ ranked 2nd among TEs in total routes (42), tied for 4th in targets (8), 1st in snaps (82), and 1st in end zone targets (3). That’s elite Tier, TE1 usage. He draws a dream Week 6 matchup against KC in the highest-total game of the week (55.5), who’s allowed the 4th-most FPG to opposing TEs (17.9). If this were Logan Thomas, we would be talking about him as one of the top TE plays of Week 6. Instead, RSJ is flying under the radar when he should be viewed as a low-end TE1 this week. RSJ is far and away the top punt play at TE on DraftKings in Week 6, as his workload and matchup suggest he should cost about $1,000 more.

Other / Notes

- You can make a case for Travis Kelce with Tyreek Hill banged up… Jared Cook is a strong value on DraftKings… Noah Fant and Dalton Schultz are solid tournament options on both sites.. But I think, for cash, you’re playing Mark Andrews on FanDuel and either Andrews or RSJ on DraftKings.