For at least the first two months of the 2020 season, we were able to lean on a surprisingly high number of QBs to provide stability and a steady stream of fantasy points. Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert, and a few other solid guys we could count on, plus some fringe high-end guys like Joe Burrow, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady.
Man, those were the days.
I don’t know exactly when it started and I’m not going to go back and look to find out, but let’s call it a month. Over the last month, the QB position has devolved for fantasy and DFSs, and it got so bad in Week 13 that (subject to change) your top-3 QBs for the week are guys who average about 30 attempts a game and who don’t run (Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield, Ryan Tannehill - plus Kirk Cousins is top-12). That’s pretty gross, and fluky. I’ve mostly avoided trying those guys out in this column because I usually view volume > efficiency. The few times I did try those guys out, you guessed it, they barely threw it.
It truly is harder this year to project game script and usage/touches surrounding it. In fact, the best way at this point may be to look at games that seem to obviously pass-heavy or run-heavy, and assume the opposite will happen. That’s kind of what I did with Cle-Ten. Although I wasn’t fully in on the narrative that it would be a shootout, I did like several props from that game related to the passing game and I listed all the passing game guys are looking better than usual or sleepers for the game on Sunday in Hansen’s Hints and didn’t pump up the RBs much.
If you look back at that Hints column, other than a few bombs like Devontae Booker, the analysis was solid at worst, which I think is typical. But for DFS, the picks aren’t as good.
The QBs I recommended were fine, especially Aaron Rogers and Taysom Hill (and we’ll see about Lamar Jackson), but Mitchell Trubisky didn’t work out. He definitely played well enough to put up really good numbers, as he has consistently done in this matchup. That sucked, but I don’t feel that bad because he was cheap. If he gets 1 of the 3 rushing TDs they scored, and he comes through.
Since I’m basically done with my season-long leagues (don’t ask), I’m going to try to focus a little more on DFS the final four weeks of the season, and my number one concern right now is what to do with these QBs? What was once a group of 10-12 top options who were mostly reliable has dwindled down to like 2-3 dudes, if that. It’s like Mahomes, Rogers, and, uh, um.
There’s no one blanket answer, but I’m going to be looking harder at some things and I’ll weigh them more. Such as:
Projected game total - That’s how I got the thought Cle-Ten may be a shootout. I thought the 53.5 total I saw late in the week was high.
I’ll look to stack more, especially if I’m worried about volume - I haven’t been a big stack guy, but that’s probably dumb on my part. The great thing about the Vikings is most of their production goes through their two WRs, so if I use Kirk Cousins and he doesn’t get volume, stacking my help if I get 1-2 TDs from the stack.
I’ll be paying close attention to bad weather - I don’t know if these young millie’s can’t hack it in bad weather, but it’s been mostly horrible for passing games when QBs born after 1990 have taken the field this year, so I’m avoiding bad weather like the plague.
I’m still leaning on the QBs’ legs whenever possible - I mean, it is still a cheat code. Cam Newton looks like the worst football passer in human history lately, and he’s QB7 on the week so far.
I’m not going to assume a banged up guy is going to get it done - Kyler Murray owners got a little lucky in Week 13 because Murray’s fantasy output on the ground and even in the passing game was again worrisome.
I won’t assume a young QB will get it done against a savvy coaching staff or with a tough matchup - like Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert the last two weeks against the Pats.
I’ll try to lean on what teams do best when making my recommendations - Like how the Raiders right now may have to throw the ball more because their running game isn’t very good. But for teams that are extremely run-heavy, like the Browns, Vikings, and Titans, I’ll also keep in mind that a heavy reliance on the run can open opportunities in the passing game, and those teams have the weapons to take advantage.
As far as the RBs are concerned, let me get this out of the way:
- I have backed a replacement RB in line for a large workload for the last time in this column. And I’m sorry.
The problem with these guys is everything I do is based on projections, which start with projected touch totals. For a guy like Devontae Booker last week, that total needed to be high. As sucky as he was, Booker’s 17 touches was only 3 off my projected total. The problem was a lack of pass targets (unexplainable) and a poor 3.3 YPC average for a guy who was averaging over 5.0 entering the game. I gave him 4.2, which was fair, but he didn’t come close.
At the end of the day, and I knew this, Booker’s been a backup only despite a lot of talent because his vision stinks. I thought he could work around that issue with volume, but he did not. But my point is these backups thrust into starting jobs usually perform to their talent level - of NFL backups. Benny Snell isn’t doing much for Pittsburgh because he’s just a guy.
But you also can’t discredit volume because it’s still major. Like Myles Gaskin in Week 13. I couldn’t back him here last week with his role not exactly clear, but given the health of their other backs (not good), it was easy to project volume. So easy, that I did. I had Gaskin with 17.5 touches, which I thought was fairly proactive given the circumstances, but he didn’t make it into my DFS sphere because he was, for example, more expensive than Nyheim Hines. But maybe with a guy like Gaskin, who unlike Booker has proven he will produce with volume, we should pounce at any opportunity for volume with guys like Gaskin, especially if they have been out a while like he has.
The other two main calls did work out and they were risky, since they have been high-profile flops, but David Montgomery and Jonathan Taylor came through. Taylor looked like he was going to flop and then in the second half he actually started, you know, getting the ball, and lo and behold look what happened!
I did go with volume and Austin Ekeler and I have nothing to say right now other than I’m sorry. I’ll have to go back and watch the tape to see what happened and maybe even reevaluate my life after that debacle. And what TF was I thinking with Frank Gore? Everything looked great! Price, matchup, role. Then a concussion on his second touch. It’s just not in the cards, so I’m officially a Gore-aphobic.
WR this week was more hit-or-miss. I listed DeVante Parker but prefaced it by assuming it was Ryan Fitzpatrick, so that shouldn’t count. Things looked really good for Allen Robinson early, and he wasn’t terrible, but he underwhelmed. He did have a knee that popped up Friday, and that may have been a problem, but the Lions played pretty well and the passing action moved to others on the team. They did a little better running the ball than I anticipated, and really their 3 TDs on the ground sunk both A-Rob and Trubisky.
I clearly picked the wrong Colt receiver in Michael Pittman, as it’s crystal clear that TY Hilton is back and is now Philip Rivers’ top-2 targets. Brandin Cooks was concussed, and he didn’t work out well, but at least both guys got double-digit PPR points. I did really like Corey Davis and Adam Thielen, and they came through nicely. But I should just put Justin Jefferson in here every week. Wow. This is definitely the second-best season by a Vikings rookie wideout in history, and Jefferson’s 2020 campaign would rank #1 for many other franchises. Also, my three bargain guys didn’t really come through, although Anthony Miller was a win, Golden Tate not a total loss, and Breshad Perriman a loss.
The NFL is organically changing like every three weeks right now, and it’s tough to keep up in DFS, so next week I’m going to look closer at some of the players whose matchups or situations I like. I won’t ignore cost, but I’m seeing instances of where I overrated cost and missed out on some good plays. For example, I regret not listing Jarvis Landry, who I did like all over the place elsewhere on the site. I also had Jefferson, Calvin Ridley, AJ Brown, Robert Woods, Henry Ruggs, Keke Coutee, Jamison Crowder, TY Hilton, and a few others who produced as players I liked more than usual or as sleepers.
I thought it was a week to go cheap at TE, but it really wasn’t. I listed four cheap TEs as plays and went 2-for-2, and my 2 hits were minor hits, Anthony Firkser and Noah Fant. The two losses, Jordan Akins and Kyle Rudolph, were bad losses. The main guy I liked, Hunter Henry, crapped the bed in an absolutely ugly game for Justin Herbert and the Chargers passing game.
Once again, some guys I liked more than usual ended up being top producers, like Darren Waller and T.J. Hockenson, so I’m thinking of broadening my criteria a little and to loosen my qualifications for some choice picks who might be a little more expensive than
