Cleveland Browns (8-3) at Tennessee Titans (8-3)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Jarvis Landry - Looked very good last week with 8/143/1 on 11 targets, and a 25% target share or better in 3 of 4 without OBJ, and WR Hodge is out. Titans allowing 17.2 catches per game to WRs (2nd-most), and third-most FPG from the slot, where Landry still lines up at times.
Ryan Tannehill - Has 19+ FP his last two games, and Browns won’t have CB Denzel Ward and are beatable. Even Mike Glennon posted 235/2 passing in his first start since 2017.
A.J. Brown - Has 16+ FP in 6 of his last 8 and the one and only Collin Johnson put up 4/96/1 against the Browns last week without Denzel Ward (calf), who is out again. The 53.5 expected points in this game bode well for Brown.
Corey Davis - Has double-digit FP in 8 of his 9 games with 72.4% catch rate and a 14.7 YPR average. All he needs is more targets, and he might get them here with 53+ points expected. The Browns are allowing 39.9 FPG per game to WRs (10th-most), and Davis is their downfield guy, which may be important this week with no Ward.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
Anthony Firkser - Jonnu Smith is out and Geoff Swaim is their main blocker (although he did get 3/30 receiving while playing 64% of the snaps last week). Firkser saw just one target without a catch on 28% of the snaps last week, but I think he has upside this week with Jonnu out and 53+ points expected. The Browns are giving up a whopping 5.8/62/1 per game to TEs the last four weeks, good for 17.9 FPG. Scrub TEs like Pharaoh Brown, Tyler Eifert, and Richard Rodgers have scored against the Browns just the last four weeks (plus Dallas Goedert).
Baker Mayfield - They wanted to prove they could throw it last week finally in good weather and he did throw for 250+ with 2+ TDs for the first time since Week 7. Not a great matchup by the numbers, but this game has a higher than expected total of 53.5, so could be more passing than expected.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Nick Chubb - Averaging 6.25 YPC and has run for 108+ yards with 6 TDs in his last five full games and even had 3/32 receiving last week, so you’re using him in a solid matchup.
Kareem Hunt - Numbers down with Chubb back, but Nyheim Hines had 8/66 receiving in this matchup last week.
Austin Hooper - Good game last week and viable desperation play if you need him. Titans are giving up production to TEs, including 5/96/1 receiving to Mark Andrews last week.
Derrick Henry - This game may have more passing than expected, but we know Henry is touching the ball 20+ times. James Robinson posted 22/128/1 rushing against the Browns last week.
New Orleans Saints (9-2) at Atlanta Falcons (4-7)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Calvin Ridley - Has 14+ FP in 9 of his 10 healthy games, including his 6/50/1 last week with Julio out of the lineup. Ridley posted 5/90 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago, and he has 90+ yards in four of his first five career games against the Saints. No Janoris Jenkins could be big for Ridley if Julio goes and they opt to put Lattimore on Julio.
Taysom Hill - Has 10 carries, 44+ rushing yards, and 2 rushing TDs the last two weeks and he did average a 10.1 YPA against Atlanta just two weeks ago in his first career start, so he’s a low-end QB1 in this one.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
Toddy Gurley - He will look to return this week but was only limited on Friday, so no lock. He had only 8/26 rushing and 1/3 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago and the Saints are allowing just 3.5 YPC to RBs and a league-low .3 rushing TDs per game to RBs. Ito Smith and Brian Hill will split snaps and touches again if he’s out. I’d have to go Smith over Hill if that’s the case. They probably want to evaluate Smith, whereas Hill is a journeyman type.
Hayden Hurst - He’s been helped by Julio being on the field, but got shut out by the Saints two weeks ago on 2 targets, and S Malcolm Jenkins has been a lot better the last 4-6 games, so I can’t say I like Hurst.
Jared Cook - He can’t be used these days, since he has only a 6-yard catch on 3 targets in his first two games with Hill at QB.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
None of note.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Alvin Kamara - Don’t know what to do with him, since he has just 1/-2 receiving in Hill’s first two starts, and Latavius Murray has been getting more work with 31/163/2 rushing in the two Hill games. Both Kamara and Latavius scored 10.5 FP against the Falcons two weeks ago, but I’d expect them to make it a point to get Kamara at least 2-3 catches. That’s no guarantee, of course.
Latavius Murray - Has 31/163/2 rushing the last two weeks and scored 10.5 FP against the Falcons two weeks ago, so viable if needed.
Michael Thomas - He does have a 30% target share or better in each of his last three games and posted 9/104 receiving on 12 targets against the Falcons two weeks ago, so I’d have to think he can post WR2 numbers this week.
Emmanuel Sanders - Did something two weeks ago vs. Falcons at least, with 4/66 on 5 targets but only 1 target in last week, so more of a desperation play.
Matt Ryan - Bad again without Julio Jones last week with a season-low 4.7 YPA. Julio seems to be a good bet to play, which helps, but they do have two OL guys questionable, and Ryan was sacked 8 times by the Saints two weeks ago. Good news is DE Marcus Davenport and CB Janoris Jenkins (who has been good) are out, which helps, but Ryan is still a shaky QB1.
Julio Jones - Says he feels good and will test hammy pre-game. There’s downside no matter what, but no Janoris Jenkins may help a bit, but he will also see a lot of Marshawn Lattimore. There is upside, of course, as Julio has 97+ yards and/or a TD when he’s been healthy enough to see more than four targets in a game.
Detroit Lions (4-7) at Chicago Bears (5-6)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
T.J. Hockenson - Season-high 89 receiving yards last week and 50+ yards and/or a TD in 10 of 11 games. The Bears have allowed 50+ yards and/or a TD to TEs in 10 of their 11 and he had 5/56/1 receiving against the Bears back in Week 1.
Kerryon Johnson - D’Andre Swift is doubtful so it’ll be Peterson most of the time on early downs and goal-line situations, with Kerryon likely getting everything else, including most of the passing-down work. I don’t expect interim HC Darrell Bevel to use Jonathan Williams like last week. Williams prevented a big PPR day for Johnson last week, so I could see 4-5 catches and 12+ PPR points for Kerryon - and maybe more if the Bears offense kicks butt as usual against Detroit and has a lead.
David Montgomery - Looking a lot better right now with Mitchell Trubisky in, and he’s now averaging 6.5 YPC (38/249) in his three full games with Trubisky. The Lions are giving up 4.7 YPC to RBs this season and over the last four weeks they are getting 30 touches a game against them, including 5.3 catches. He’s an RB1 this week.
Mitchell Trubisky - Has 3 TD passes in four straight against the Lions and has finished as a top-12 QB in each of those four starts. The matchup is outstanding, with CB Desmond Trufant on IR and Jeff Okudah out.
Allen Robinson - Banged up with knee on Friday, but unless we hear otherwise, he’s shown he can play hurt and his HC didn’t think it was serious Friday. Trubisky has targeted Robinson 38 times on 132 attempts this season (29% share), and A-Rob is averaging 18.6 fantasy points per game in Trubisky’s four starts. The matchup is outstanding, with CB Desmond Trufant on IR and Jeff Okudah out. Starting CB Amani Oruwariye got smoked by Will Fuller last week, so unless the knee is an issue, Robinson should clean up here.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
- Jimmy Graham - Rookie Cole Kmet played a season-high 79% of the snaps coming out of their bye, as they want to get him reps, so Jimmy is just a red zone guy now. If he doesn’t score, you’re likely screwed if you use him.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
Anthony Miller - The Lions are giving up the 4th-most FP to slot receivers this year, and Miller’s actually averaged over 14 FPG in his last three games against the Lions, so he’s a sneaky play. He’s definitely shown enough with Mitchell Trubisky in his three seasons for me to back him.
Darnell Mooney - He’s hard to trust, but the matchup is outstanding, with CB Desmond Trufant on IR and Jeff Okudah out. Starting CB Amani Oruwariye got smoked by Will Fuller last week, so Mooney has more upside than usual and did have a solid 9 targets last week. Miller is a safer bet, though, since Trubsiky can’t be trusted to throw an accurate deep ball.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Adrian Peterson - D’Andre Swift is doubtful so it’ll be Peterson most of the time on early downs and goal-line situations, so while TD-dependent, he’s viable for sure. Just keep in mind The Bears held Derrick Henry (21/68) and Dalvin Cook (30/96) in check during their previous two games with DT Akiem Hicks on the field, and Hicks is likely returning this week.
Matthew Stafford - Had 297/1 in this matchup earlier this season and still no Golladay, but if the Bears offense does well as expected, he might throw it a lot. Bears have allowed multiple TD passes in five straight, so not a terrible play.
Marvin Jones - Averaging 5.3/59.5/.5 receiving and 8 targets/game in the last four without Golladay, so decent WR3 if you need him in so-so matchup.
Indianapolis Colts (7-4) at Houston Texans (4-7)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Jonathan Taylor - He’s volatile, but it sure feels like he’s going to bust out soon, and technically he already did in his last game. The Texans are allowing a generous 5.4 YPC and a league-high 132.5 rushing yards per game to RBs, so it’s a great week for Taylor to bust out further. He did not actually have Covid last week, so the week off may have done him well. Hopefully, Jacoby Brissett doesn’t keep stealing short rushing TDs.
Nyheim Hines - Dominated the touches last week with 8/66 receiving and 10/29 rushing on a 65% snap share, and he’s the safest of all their backs. It’s a great matchup for all the Colt RBs. Hopefully, Jacoby Brissett doesn’t keep stealing short rushing TDs.
Michael Pittman - Still got 9 targets in a bad game last week and since he’s kind of been the #1 the last few weeks, he may have seen a lot of top corner Bradley Roby, but Roby is out and the Texans are in bad shape without him. I’m sniffing a TD for Pittman, which would be his first of the season.
Brandin Cooks - Fuller leaves behind a 21% target share, and Cooks has owned a 24% target share himself in his last seven. The Colts’ secondary has been hit recently by lead receivers A.J. Brown (4/98/1) and Davante Adams (7/106/1) in the last two weeks.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
Keke Coutee - Will likely be the #2 passing option and saw a decent 13% target share last week while running 63% of his routes for the slot. Coutee actually has a pair of 11-catch games against the Colts zone defense in three career games, so not a bad reach if you need 10+ PPR points.
Jordan Akins - Just missed 2 TDs on under- and over-thrown passes on Thanksgiving. The week before, I watched him closely and he looked great, making chunk play after chunk play and putting up 5/83 on 6 targets and Fuller leaves behind a 21% target share.
T.Y. Hilton - Not hopeless with 5+ targets and 3+ catches in three straight and his best game of the year last week with 4/81/1 receiving on five targets. He’s also been a Texans killer during his career, averaging 95 receiving yards per game in 17 career matchups.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Philip Rivers - Coming off a shaky performance against the Titans, and the Colts lost LT Anthony Castonzo to an MCL injury, but Rivers does have 260+ passing yards and 2+ TDs in 4 of his last 6 with 39.5 attempts/game. The Texans will miss top corner Bradley Roby, so Phil should be decent at worst on the low-end.
Trey Burton - Just 27 snaps (36% share) last week, but he’s their red zone guy and still runs a lot of routes. The Texans are allowing a generous 8.3 YPT to TEs this season after T.J. Hockenson ripped Houston for 5/89 receiving on eight targets, if desperate.
Deshaun Watson - Brilliance continued last week, but production goes way down without Will Fuller, and Indy will get stud Deforest Buckner back this week, so lower expectations. The Colts have at least given up 18+ FP in 4 of their last 5.
David Johnson - He’s been activated, and should be fresh and ready to go. The Colts will have DeForest Buckner and Denico Autry back in the lineup, so it’s a tougher matchup, but I see Johnson getting 15+ opportunities, and if he scores he’ll be good for 15+ PPR points. If he doesn’t score, it could be underwhelming with Duke Johnson likely still involved.
Cincinnati Bengals (2-8-1) at Miami Dolphins (7-4)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Ryan Fitzpatrick - If he’s the starter, he’s a good option for those with QB issues. He’s been at 18+ FP in six straight starts and 12 passing TDs and 2 TDs on the ground his last 6 starts. Great matchup against a Bengals defense that’s allowed the second-most passing TDs per game to QBs (2.2), but make sure he’s in the starting lineup over Tua Tagovailoa today.
DeVante Parker - Looking good if Fitz goes and he was all over the place last week and posted 8/119 receiving on 14 targets. The Bengals are allowing 39.9 FPG to WRs this season (ninth-most), but his stock and upside takes a hit if they go Tua today.
Myles Gaskin - Activated from IR Saturday, so he should be the guy, with Salvon Ahmed, DeAndre Washington, and Matt Breida all out or doubtful. Gaskin is a little risky in his first game back if you have a comparable option. But if you need him and his likely 15+ touches, Wayne Gallman posted 24/94/1 rushing against the Bengals last week.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- Mike Gesicki - A little more consistent lately, but still hard to trust. It is a good matchup, though, and the Bengals just gave up 6/129 Evan Engram. Like DeVante Parker, his outlook improves today if they go with Fitz.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Brandon Allen - Not a good option and matchup. Sam Darnold threw for just 197 yards and 2 INTs against the Dolphins last week.
Tee Higgins - Came through with a TD last week, but do you feel lucky? Higgins did catch all 5 of his targets, and outside guys Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims combined for 8/146 receiving last week against the Dolphins. But Higgins is no must-start.
Tyler Boyd - Team-high 6 targets (20.7% share) last week, but only 3/15 receiving. Jamison Crowder posted 3/31 receiving in this matchup last week, and Mia has been below-average matchup in the slot.
Giovani Bernard - He’s the guy at least and Frank Gore posted 18/74rushing and 3/12 receiving against the Dolphins last week. Miami has been easier to run on this year than to throw.
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-10) at Minnesota Vikings (5-6)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
James Robinson - Not benchable given his volume, and 94+ total yards in five straight. Vikes are a solid matchup and allow 139.5 total yards per game to RBs.
Kirk Cousins - He’s rolling with 3 TD passes and/or 290+ passing yards in three of his last four, and Alexander Mattison is out, which could help his attempt total. The Jaguars are down two key CBs and have allowed 255+ passing yards and multiple passing TDs to QBs in five straight, so Cousins should have success when he does throw it.
Justin Jefferson - Has 17+ FP in three straight games and is officially elite for fantasy. Seven different receivers have posted 15+ FP against the Jaguars and their depleted secondary in their last four games.
Adam Thielen - He crushes man, which they run a lot. Jaguars have allowed six WRs TDs in their last four games, and Jarvis Landry posted 8/143/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
Kyle Rudolph - Season-highs in targets (8), catches (7), and yards (68) with both Thielen and Irv Smith out last week. Thielen is back, but Irv is out again and I have to think Rudolph has a good chance to score against a Jaguars defense that’s allowed the most TDs to TEs this season.
Mike Boone - These plays never seem to work out lately, but he may get 10+ carries if the Vikings are up in the second half, which is very possible. But a 10/50/1 line would not surprise me.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
D.J. Chark - Practiced fully Friday, so should go. Robby Anderson posted 4/94/1 receiving in this matchup last week and the Vikings are giving up the fourth-most FPG to WRs (43.2), so Chark can be used as a strong WR3 if you need him.
Mike Glennon - He was solid last week and will get DJ Chark back and the Vikings are allowing 271.0/2.2 passing per game to QBs, so viable on the very low end.
Chris Conley - Dealing with hip and missed last week and limited in practice all week, so forget it.
Collin Johnson - Viable sleeper if Conley is out as he put up 4/96/1 receiving on 32 routes with Glennon, who he may click well with from working with the backups.
Laviska Shenault and Keelan Cole - Shenault (3/31 on 34 routes), and Cole (3/44 on 36) are in the mix but hard to use with Chark back. Shenault is the better play on paper in the slot, where Vikings give up second-most PPG.
Dalvin Cook - Only 82 total yards last week as he was in and out of the lineup, but practiced fully Friday and Alexander Mattison is out, so it’s Mike Boone behind him, which may bump Cook’s touch total a tiny bit as they might like to limit touches if possible. Nick Chubb posting 19/144/1 rushing and 3/32 receiving in this matchup last week.
Las Vegas Raiders (6-5) at New York Jets (0-11)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Devontae Booker - Josh Jacobs is out and Booker is looking at 20+ touches with 30 touches in play. The Raiders are 8-point road favorites, and Jacobs was averaging 26 touches/game with 8 TDs in their six wins. Booker can easily catch 3-4 balls with 20+ carries and all the goal-line work. He’s a sure RB1.
Darren Waller - Fewer than 40 receiving yards in 4 of his last 5, but remains a top TE option. The Jets have allowed double-digit FP and TDs to TEs in five straight games, so it’s a solid matchup.
Breshad Perriman - Has 11+ FP in three straight after leading the team with 4/79 on eight targets (29.6% share) against the Dolphins in Week 12. No S Johnathan Abram helps his chances.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
Derek Carr - Crapped the bed last week with 3 fumbles and an INT, so there’s that. It’s a great matchup, though. The Jets had allowed 24+ FP in three straight before last week, when Ryan Fitzpatrick put up 257/2 passing last week with relative ease.
Henry Ruggs - Only 3/56 on 5 targets last week, but he flashed and Agholor’s ankle injury may slow him, so a good upside play against a young secondary that’s been easy to rip.
Denzel Mims - Solid 4/67 receiving on 8 targets last week and usage (29.6% share) continues to be encouraging. He’s put up 42+ receiving yards in each of his first five NFL games with double-digit FP in his last three, so viable for 10 PPR points at least.
Jamison Crowder - Only 6/73/1 receiving on 10 targets in his three full games with Perriman and Mims playing, but there’s some hope Darnold re-acquaints himself with Crowder, since the Raiders give up fifth-most FPG to slot receivers.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Nelson Agholor - Limited on Friday and out earlier, so this ankle injury is a concern. If healthy, he’d be a must-start here, as lead WRs (Parker/Keenan/Jakobi/Tyreek) have posted 98+ receiving yards and 19+ FP in four straight games against the Jets.
Sam Darnold - Season-best 7.3 YPA last week and he does have some pieces to work with at receiver. The Raiders are allowing 279.3 passing yards per game to QBs this season, so a decent game would not be a big surprise. No S Johnathan Abram helps his chances.
Frank Gore - Solid 58% of the snaps last week with 18/74 rushing and 3/12 receiving. Another 15+ touches should be forthcoming and the Raiders are giving up 4.6 YPC and 8.3 YPR to RBs this season.
Los Angeles Rams (7-4) at Arizona Cardinals (6-5)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Cooper Kupp - Only a 16% target share last week but fellow slot guy Tyler Lockett put up 24/267/4 receiving in two games this season against the Cards and Kupp averaged a healthy 20.7 FPG in two games in this matchup last year.
Robert Woods - Has a healthy 27 targets and 19/210/1 the last two weeks, and he’s averaging 7.4 catches and 93.6 receiving yards per game in five games against the Cards with an incredible 2-game average against them last year of 10/119.5/.5, good for 25.4 FPG.
Kenyan Drake - He’s starting to emerge as their identity the last two weeks and has 7/46 receiving the last two games. Drake has seen seven of his 13 goal-line carries in the last two weeks, since there have been fewer goal-line carries for Murray. The Rams haven’t allowed an RB to reach 15+ FP since Week 3, but Drake’s a serious threat to hit that number every week now.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
Kyler Murray - Pats slowed him down well last week and the AC sprain in his throwing shoulder seems to be limiting him, at least in terms of his running. He has run just five times in each of his last two games for a combined 46 yards, and his aDOT is also sitting under seven yards in each of his last two games. It’s a tough matchup, as well. The Rams haven’t allowed a QB to reach 15+ FP since Week 6, and he averaged only 15/.7 FPG against them in 2 games last year.
Christian Kirk - His production has dried up the last three weeks with just 11/96 receiving on 18 targets after scoring 20+ FP in his previous three games. The Rams are allowing a league-low 129.3 receiving yards per game to WRs, so it would be nice to have a better option. No Larry Fitzgerald also opens up more snaps for Andy Isabella, which doesn’t help.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- Cam Akers - Ripped off a nice 61-yard run last week and reason to believe he could emerge as the hot hand any given week now, so worth a shot if you need him.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Jared Goff - Crap game last week with 198/0 with 2 INTs but had been at 300+ yards in three straight and Cardinals have allowed 20+ FP to four straight QBs and he averaged 371/2.5 against them in two games last year, so he could do well.
Josh Reynolds - 5/40 last week with 98% of the snaps, which gives him 40+ yards in six of his last seven games, but FWIW he did little in this matchup last year.
Darrell Henderson - He has just 61 total yards on 30 opportunities in his last three games, so he can’t be used with Akers emerging and Brown in this mix.
Malcolm Brown - Has 17/98/2 total yards last three, but a desperation play only with Akers emerging.
Chase Edmonds - Has 3+ catches in five straight but a so-so 16/98 rushing and 11/71 receiving in three games since Drake returned to the lineup, so kind of a desperation play this late in the season.
DeAndre Hopkins - Only 10/106 receiving on 15 targets the last two games and he posted only 5/40 receiving on 8 targets in one game against Jalen Ramsey and Jags in 2019. Hopkins has done very well against Ramsey in the past, but the circumstances are different this week with Kyler struggling a bit.
Andy Isabella - Seeing an increased role with Larry Fitzgerald on the COVID-19 list, so we’ll see a lot of him this week again. He has 4/33 receiving on six targets with a 17.6% targets share and a 55% snap share last week, eating away at Kirk’s upside.
New York Giants (4-7) at Seattle Seahawks (8-3)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
- Chris Carson - Eased back last week but full practice Friday with Carlos Hyde still limited. Hyde should play, but Carson’s role should increase. Carson has scored in 5 of his 7 games. He may need some volume with the Giants allowing just 87 rushing yards a game, but he’s looking good for that.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
- Darius Slayton - 0 catches last week on 2 targets and failed to see a target from McCoy last week, so hard to feel good.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Colt McCoy - Can’t expect much down the field from McCoy but he does have a good receiving corps to throw to. But Seattle’s defense is coming on with Jamaal Adams and Carlos Dunlap (who is questionable) and they’ve limited Kyler Murray and Carson Wentz to a combined 4.9 YPA in the last two weeks.
Sterling Shepard - Averaging just 7.1 YPR over his last five games so even if he catches 5-6 ball, he may not hit double-digit PPR points. McCoy targeted Shepard on four of his 10 passes last week, not bad.
Evan Engram - He has 9+ targets in 4 of his last 5 with 5+ catches and 10+ FP in those games and the Seahawks have given up 5 TDs to the TEs their last five games.
Wayne Gallman - He’s been an RB1 in five straight, but not looking great here with a tougher matchup and a likely negative game script as 10-point underdogs. Gallman has just 5/13 receiving in his last three games, but at least McCoy won’t tuck it and run like Daniel Jones does, and Gallman can absolutely catch the ball well. 4-5 grabs would really help him keep the production up this week.
Russell Wilson - Back to handing it off more lately with 59 attempts and 427/2 passing in the last two weeks. They are 10-point home favorites, so he may not have to throw much and the Giants are allowing just 17.6 FPG to QBs (6th-fewest). They’re beatable, but pretty darn good and disciplined on defense.
D.K. Metcalf - Got Darius Slay for 10/177 on 13 targets last week and will now take aim at James Bradberry, who is a little more physical than Slay. Mike Evans posted 3/42/1 on five targets in his coverage in Week 8.
Tyler Lockett - He’s been frustrating with 3/23 on 4 targets last week and he’s now scored eight or fewer FP in 3 of his last 5. Tyler Boyd posted just 3/15 receiving last week but that was with Brandon Allen at QB. The Giants have been middle of the pack covering the slot.
Carlo Hyde - He should play and should get 10+ touches, if you’re desperate. They do have DeeJay Dallas, though, if Hyde’s hurting at all.
Philadelphia Eagles (3-7-1) at Green Bay Packers (8-3)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Aaron Rodgers - He has 3+ TDs and/or 280+ yards in 5 of his last 6 and nothing very scary about this matchup. Even if Darius Slay limits Davante Adams, the Eagles should have problems with their other big WRs.
Davante Adams - He has a TD in six straight and he’s posted 16/233/2 receiving on 25 targets in his last two games against Darius Slay (and the Lions) in 2018-19.
Miles Sanders - Saw only half of their RB touches last week, but I think that will change this week with Doug Peterson desperate to right the ship. The Packers have allowed David Montgomery (143/1 scrimmage) and Jonathan Taylor (114/0) to snap out of their funks the last two weeks, so it’s Sanders’ turn.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
- Eagles WRs - Maybe you need to try Wentz, but using an Eagles WR is not advisable.
Jalen Reagor led the way with a 60% snap share, followed by Alshon Jeffery (51.4%), Travis Fulgham (51.4%), and John Hightower (27.1%). None of these guys did anything for fantasy.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling - He went from posting 9/257/3 receiving on 16 targets in his last three games to going targetless on a 79% snap share in Week 12, but we do think his size/speed may give the small Eagles DBs problems. He has upside this week.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Carson Wentz - May have played his worst game of the year last year, which is not good. But somehow, Wentz has thrown for 2 TDs in 6 of his last 7. The Packers have allowed three TD passes to Mitchell Trubisky and Philip Rivers in their last two games, so not hopeless.
Dallas Goedert - He’s been a must-start the last two weeks but now Zach Ertz will return. Still, I can’t worry too much about it considering how bad Ertz looked before going on IR. The Packers are allowing just 9.3 FPG to TEs (3rd-fewest) but Trey Burton and Jack Doyle each scored against them in Week 11. I’d still view Goedert as a top-7 guy.
Allen Lazard - Involved last week with 4/23/1 receiving on six targets (21% share) and he’s scored in three of his five games. But he is questionable this week and was limited Friday.
Robert Tonyan - Has 5 catches for 40+ yards and a TD in each of his last two, so he can be started. The Eagles have tightened up against TEs since their Week 9 bye, but they’re still allowing a promising 14.6 FPG to TEs (6th-most).
Aaron Jones - Has 1 TD in his last four and averaging a so-so (for him) 16.7 touches and 85.3 total yards per game over his last three. It’s a tougher matchup, with the Eagles allowing just 3.4 YPC and 29.7 receiving yards per game to RBs with 11 total TDs.
New England Patriots (5-6) at Los Angeles Chargers (3-8)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Austin Ekeler - Incredible 25 touches with 16 targets in his first game back last week, and he now has 20+ touches in each of his four games this season. Kenyan Drake posted 25/93/2 scrimmage against the Patriots last week and they can give up a lot of RB catches behind the line.
Hunter Henry - He has 4+ catches in five straight and coming off his best game of the season last week. Mark Andrews and Jordan Akins each scored 13 FP without a TD against the Patriots in Weeks 10-11 before New England faced the Cardinals last week, and he could be active.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
Cam Newton - He can’t be used after last week’s debacle, since he’s also failed to run for a TD the last two weeks. The Chargers also kept Josh Allen in check last week and haven’t allowed a QB to reach 18+ FP in four straight games.
Mike Williams - Likely to see some Stephon Gilmore on the perimeter this week, which makes him a risky play. He’s finished with fewer than 40 yards in two of his last three and had a poor 10% target share last week in his first game with Ekeler back in the lineup.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- James White - Surprised with 2 TDs last week but only a 6% target share and 37% snap share. The Chargers are giving up the fourth-most catches per game to RBs (6.1), at least. White also tied an NFL record with 15 catches against the Chargers in the playoffs two seasons ago.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Jakobi Meyers - Had a strong 33% target share (6 targets) last week for 5/52 receiving, but Cole Beasley disappointed with 2/25 receiving out of the slot last week and hard to trust Cam with Meyers unless fairly desperate.
Damien Harris - He continues to dominate the early-down touches with Sony Michel seeing just one snap last week. Harris hasn’t been as effective the last two weeks, but Devin Singletary and Zack Moss busted out a little in this matchup last week with a combined 141 rushing yards.
Justin Herbert - It’s a little scary seeing this rookie go up against the Pats, who eat rookies for lunch. Herbert has now averaged 6.5 YPA or worse in three of his last five, and the Pats also just limited Kyler Murray to 8.9 FP last week. It’s a tough test, but Herbert won’t be a flop.
Keenan Allen - He has scored in five straight but with 40 or fewer yards in two of his last three and the Pats could look to double him and take him out. They limited DeAndre Hopkins to 5/55 receiving on seven targets last week.
Denver Broncos (4-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-1)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
- Noah Fant - The matchup is solid by the numbers, with KC giving up a fairly promising 5.3/63.5 per game to TEs the last four weeks, good for 14.3 FPG. They should have to throw a lot, so Fant could surprise with a big game.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
- Phillip Lindsay - Had a knee injury last week and has reached 25+ scrimmage yards just once in his last four games with 0 TDs, so he’s not worth trying out.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
None of note.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Melvin Gordon - Since Phillip Lindsay practiced and should play, Gordon is tough to trust these days. He did manage to get 17/68/1 rushing and 2/12 receiving against the Chiefs in Week 7.
Drew Lock - Completed 24/40 passes (6.4 YPA) for 254 yards and two INTs against the Chiefs in Week 7. He should have to throw it a lot, so he does have a chance to surprise with numbers, but there is also a tangible downside to backing him.
Tim Patrick - He led the Denver WRs with 3/44 receiving on four targets against the Chiefs in Week 7 and is worth a shot if you need some upside, since they should have to throw a lot.
Jerry Jeudy - Had only 2/20 receiving on four targets in this matchup earlier in this year, but as always, he has a chance if Lock plays relatively well, since they usually have to throw it a lot. Jeudy had seen 8+ targets in four straight games after moving to the outside in Weeks 8-11 before last week’s debacle.
K.J. Hamler - He had 2/24 on three targets in the first matchup. KC has allowed the fourth-fewest FPG (32.2) and the second-fewest receiving yards per game to WRs (140.9), and they have been good against slot WRs.
Patrick Mahomes - Averaging 45 attempts a game since they went pass-heavy four games ago. He had his worst fantasy performance of the season (12 FP) against the Broncos in Week 7 in their last game when they were still running the ball, but while I don’t think he’ll throw it as much as we’ve seen lately, Mahomes should still throw it enough to get big numbers, and no CB Bryce Callahan for Denver helps.
Tyreek Hill - Has a ridiculous 25+ FP in four straight with a 30% target share in four of his last five games. Hill posted 6/55/1 receiving on 10 targets against the Broncos in Week, which is his downside (like 17 FP).
Travis Kelce - Going off every week basically, but did have his worst game of the season against the Broncos in Week 7 with 3/31 receiving on three targets. He’s still averaging a strong 14 FPG in his last three in this matchup and that’s despite not scoring a TD.
Other Chiefs WRs - Sammy Watkins had 4/38 receiving on 7 targets last week with DeMarcus Robinson getting 5/36 on 6 targets and Mecole Hardman had 2/57 receiving. The Broncos are down a corner, so one of these guys is doing something of note. Use them in order of listing.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire - Not getting the touches lately but does have 3 TDs his last four games and he put up 9/63/1 scrimmage against the Broncos in Week 7. I’d think he and Le’Veon Bell will get some play in the second half as the Chiefs nurse a lead.
