Hello and welcome to the Week 10 Update. What is this article? Mostly it’s a follow-up to yesterday’s big DFS piece – Scott Barrett’s Week 11 DFS Breakdown. But this article should also offer some utility for redraft and dynasty players.
Each week I’ll be breaking down the key injuries, news, and notes from Saturday / Sunday and will be updating this article up until kickoff (1PM EST). And I’ll also be providing a sort of TL;DR to yesterday’s big DFS article. Who are my core cash game plays? You can find that at the end of the article.
Key News
- BREAKING: Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater is OUT. P.J. Walker will start at QB. Downgrade everyone on Carolina’s side. Give a slight upgrade to Adrian Peterson and DET DST.
- BREAKING: Saints CB Marshon Lattimore is OUT. This is a big upgrade for Julio Jones.
- BREAKING: Patriots RB Sony Michel is OUT. Damien Harris will be the workhorse once again.
- BREAKING: Patriots CB Stephon Gilmore WILL PLAY.
- BREAKING: Per Ian Rapoport, who is (unfortunately) frequently wrong on scoops that are not also already being reported by Adam Schefter, Colts RB Nyheim Hines should get “the bulk of the carries” and that HC Frank Reich will continue to “ride the hot hand.” He gets a top-3 matchup against the Packers.
- BREAKING: Packers WR Allen Lazard is EXPECTED TO PLAY, but will likely be on a pitch count per Ian Rapoport. That makes him too risky to play in DFS.
- BREAKING: Per Ian Rapoport, QB Matthew Stafford WILL PLAY and without any limitations.
- Saints QB Drew Brees is OUT.
- Jets QB Sam Darnold is OUT.
- Bengals RB Joe Mixon is OUT.
- Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey is OUT.
- Lions RB D’Andre Swift is OUT.
- Packers RB Tyler Ervin is OUT.
- Jaguars WR Laviska Shenault is OUT.
- Titans WR Adam Humphries is OUT.
- Lions WRs Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola are OUT.
- Eagles TE Zach Ertz is OUT.
- Broncos QB Drew Lock is QUESTIONABLE but LIKELY TO PLAY.
- Patriots WR N’Keal Harry is QUESTIONABLE.
- Broncos TE Noah Fant is QUESTIONABLE.
- Vikings TE Irv Smith Jr. is QUESTIONABLE.
- Colts TE Jack Doyle is QUESTIONABLE.
- Ravens DL Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams are DOUBTFUL and NOT EXPECTED TO PLAY.
Chalk
- According to our Ownership Projections, powered by FanShare, the highest-owned players are likely to be:
DraftKings
1. Dalvin Cook, RB (34.3%)
2. Jakobi Meyers, WR (22.3%)
3. Diontae Johnson, WR (21.5%)
4. Logan Thomas, TE (21.2%)
5. Keenan Allen, WR (20.5%)
6. Alvin Kamara, RB (18.7%)
7. Mike Davis, RB (18.5%)
8. WAS DEF (18.4%)
9. Terry McLaurin, WR (17.5%)
10. Mark Andrews, TE (17.3%)
FanDuel
1. Taysom Hill, TE (54.4%)
2. Dalvin Cook, RB (36.3%)
3. Keenan Allen, WR (23.5%)
4. Jakobi Meyers, WR (22.3%)
5. Kalen Ballage, RB (20.1%)
6. Alvin Kamara, RB (18.7%)
7. Davante Adams, WR (18.5%)
8. Terry McLaurin, WR (17.5%)
9. James Conner, RB (17.3%)
10. Justin Jefferson, WR (16.5%)
Things I Think
I think I feel really good about the plays I wrote up in the DFS Breakdown. Although there aren’t many plays (from Tier 1 / Tier 2) that are likely to go low-owned, there’s enough there to still give yourself a contrarian edge. And from what I’m seeing from other content providers, there’s a lot we disagree on, but it’s just about all on plays I’ve spent a lot of time debating and still feel very good about.
Cash Core (DK/FD)
QB: Taysom Hill (DK), Justin Herbert, Deshaun Watson
RB: Dalvin Cook, Kalen Ballage (FD), Giovani Bernard (DK), Adrian Peterson, Duke Johnson, Miles Sanders, Antonio Gibson, J.D. McKissic, Derrick Henry
WR: Terry McLaurin, Diontae Johnson, Keenan Allen, Jakobi Meyers, Brandin Cooks, Justin Jefferson, Marvin Hall (DK), Davante Adams
TE: Taysom Hill (FD), Dallas Goedert (DK), Mark Andrews (DK), T.J. Hockenson (DK)
DEF: ATL, MIA, CIN (DK), WAS (DK), CAR (FD)