Hello and welcome to the Week 11 DFS Breakdown. Hopefully by now you know the deal. Each week I’ll be writing up my Tier 1, Tier 2, and Tier 3 favorite plays at each position, and listing them in some sort of order.
The Tier 1 plays are the best plays. I hope that’s obvious. You’re not going to be building 19 different lineups? Cool. Feel free to ignore everyone listed in Tier 3.
Essentially, this article should be everything you need to know in order to profit in any given DFS week. But make sure you’re also watching the Cashing Points Livestream. Be sure to check out our ownership projections (powered by FanShare), and all of our other cool tools and articles each week.
And be sure to read the Week 11 Sunday Update (out Saturday PM). Each week I’ll be providing analysis on all relevant late breaking news, and updating that article until lock. I’ll also dive in a bit deeper into the macro-level analysis on the slate. I’ll talk a bit more about how I’m looking to leverage the field in tournaments, and some low-owned plays I like. And, most importantly, I’ll also be providing my cash-game core.
Here we go….
Running Backs
Tier 1
Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings
[DK: RB3, FD: RB1]
Cook is by no means cheap, but he is a top value. Despite the $9,000 price tag on DraftKings (3rd-most among RBs), Cook ranks 2nd among flex-eligible players in projected value (3.10X). And despite the whopping $10,500 price-tag on FanDuel (most among all players), Cook again ranks 2nd (2.23X). He’s no doubt expensive, but with so much value elsewhere on the slate, he is affordable. And with all of the other top RBs in tough matchups (or, in Kamara’s case, disadvantaged by QB play), I do think he is worth paying up for in cash.
Cook leads all RBs in DKFPG by +8.5, averaging 27.9 DKFPG. Cook leads all RBs in FDFPG by +7.0 FPG, averaging 23.4 FDFPG. He’s hit 22 rushing attempts in 5 of his last 5 healthy games, averaging 26.2 carries, 3.2 targets, and 31.7 (PPR) fantasy points per game. The Vikings are 7.0-point favorites this week, against a Cowboys defense that ranks 6th-worst in YPC allowed (4.79) and 3rd-worst in rushing FPG allowed (18.0). He’s rightfully going to be mighty chalky this week.
Adrian Peterson, RB, Detroit Lions
[DK: RB43, FD: RB41]
After hyping up D’Andre Swift in every single article I’ve written this week, he’s now out, opening a pathway for Peterson to see workhorse-usage at minimum salary. Swift was the bell cow last week, but, if we exclude Swift, Peterson has handled 75% of Detroit’s backfield XFP since Week 7. Detroit ranks 10th in team RB XFP, and just a 65% share of that work would yield 16.3 XFP, or what would rank about 10th-best in any given week. And that seems low, given the number of injuries to Detroit’s passing game. Touchdown-upside might be an issue, but he gets a great matchup this week – Carolina ranks 4th-worst in YPC allowed (4.86), 5th-worst in rushing FPG allowed (16.9), 7th-worst in receiving FPG allowed, and 4th-worst in total FPG allowed to opposing RBs (29.1).
Miles Sanders, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
[DK: RB6, FD: RB8]
Sanders has hit 95 scrimmage yards in 5 of 6 games, averaging 103.3 per game. He’s averaging a league-high 6.03 YPC, and has played on 77% of the team’s snaps in games he started and finished, which ranks behind only Ezekiel Elliott (79%). Sanders got a little bit unlucky last week, losing 2 touchdowns to Boston Scott and Corey Clement who totaled just 5 combined touches on the day. Still, volume was and has been excellent for Sanders, who is averaging roughly 15.6 carries and 5.5 targets per 4 quarters. On paper, this week’s matchup is about average or slightly below, but maybe only on paper. Myles Garrett will be out this week, and when he missed time last season (6 games), opposing RBs averaged 6.1 more FPG. He’s a great play.
Giovani Bernard, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
[DK: RB27, FD: RB19]
In Week 7, without Joe Mixon, Bernard played on 75% of the snaps, earning 13 of 14 carries, 5 of 6 targets, and 3 of 3 opportunities inside the 10-yard-line. In Week 8, without Mixon again, Bernard played on 64% of the snaps, earning 15 of 25 carries, 4 of 5 targets, and 2 of 4 opportunities inside the 10-yard-line. Samaje Perine stole a chunk of the work, but Week 8 was also an 11-point win – game script better suited for Perine – and it’s unlikely Cincinnati wins in a blowout this week, or at any other point this season. In Week 10 – through the first 3 quarters, before the game got out of hand – Bernard played on 38 of 48 snaps (79%), earning 7 of 10 carries and 6 of 7 targets.
Looking at his usage over the team’s past three games without Mixon, Bernard might not seem like a true bell cow. But it’s clear, upon digging deeper, a bell cow workload should be the expectation in Week 11. The Bengals are 1.0-point dogs, and Washington ranks 19th in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing RBs (-1.1). So, it’s a slightly below-average matchup, but Bernard is still one of the better values of the slate, priced as just the 27th-most expensive RB on DraftKings.
(It’s close, but I have him ahead of Duke Johnson on DraftKings.)
Duke Johnson, RB, Houston Texans
[DK: RB28, FD: RB23]
David Johnson played just 7 snaps in Week 9 before exiting early due to injury. In his absence, Duke Johnson played on 50 of 55 snaps, earning 16 of 16 carries and 4 of 4 targets. In Week 10, Duke Johnson played on 51 of 54 snaps, earning 14 of 14 carries and 1 of 2 targets. This is no doubt an elite bell cow workload, but it’s not translating into XFP or fantasy points. Over this span, Duke Johnson ranks just 23rd in XFP (12.4) and 27th in FPG (10.9).
The excuses for him are pretty easy, however. He’s a better pass-catching back than a runner, and Deshaun Watson rarely throws to RBs. Though that’s a concern this week as well. It’s also easy to throw out last week’s game, as Cleveland stacked the box, and dared Houston to pass in a game with 45 mph winds. The matchup this week is about neutral for Duke – New England ranks 8th-worst in YPC allowed and 8th-worst in rushing FPG allowed to opposing RBs, but 7th-best in receiving FPG allowed to opposing RBs.
Kalen Ballage, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
[DK: RB24, FD: RB26]
Is Kalen Ballage a DFS-viable option in Week 11? Yes. Gross, but yes. 2020 gonna 2020, I guess.
Ballage totaled 84 yards on 15 carries and 3 targets in Week 9. In Week 10, Ballage played on 73% of the team’s snaps, totaling 103 yards on 18 of 25 carries and 6 of 6 targets. Troymaine Pope was active, but played only on special teams. Justin Jackson and Austin Ekeler are still out, and Joshua Kelley isn’t good. Per HC Anthony Lynn on Wednesday, “I’m gonna give [Ballage] more looks … right now I would say he’s the primary guy.”
He gets a top-5 matchup, favored by 9.5-points against a Jets defense that ranks 7th-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing RBs (+4.5). It’s close, but I like him more than Bernard and Johnson on FanDuel.
Tier 2
Washington RBs
Here’s what we have to say of J.D. McKissic and Antonio Gibson in the XFP Report:
“Here’s something I didn’t see coming: J.D. McKissic leads all players in XFP over the last two weeks (51.8), earning +12.1 more than the next-closest RB (Dalvin Cook).
From Weeks 1-8, McKissic averaged only 9.2 XFP per game, with a season-high of just 13.5 in Week 6. In Week 9, McKissic totaled 22.0 XFP, which ranked 2nd-most among RBs, scoring 17.2 fantasy points on 3 carries and 14 targets. In Week 10, McKissic led all players in XFP, totaling 29.8. He scored 17.9 fantasy points on 8 carries and 15 targets. Over the last two weeks, he’s seen a whopping 47 snaps lined up at WR, which is absurd for a RB. And he is seeing phenomenal target-quality (for a RB), with one of his targets last week traveling 23 yards through the air.
Again, this was something I didn’t see coming, but maybe I should have. Alex Smith has played in only three games this year. In Week 5, he targeted McKissic on 5 of his 17 attempts (29.4%). In Week 9, that jumped to 13 of Smith’s 32 attempts (40.6%). In Week 10, McKissic was targeted on 15 of Smith’s 55 attempts (27.2%). That’s obscene usage – a 31.7% target share and an average of 12.0 targets per four quarters with Smith under center.
This is no doubt troubling for Antonio Gibson owners, though he was productive in Week 10. He scored 22.5 fantasy points, but on just a lowly 14.8-point expectation, earning 13 carries and 4 targets. McKissic more than doubled Gibson’s XFP average over the last two weeks (25.9 to 12.4), while also out-snapping him 99 to 55. On third downs, McKissic out-snaps Gibson 104 to 11.
Smith is under center again in Week 11, but expected game script is more in Gibson’s favor. Washington is favored this week (-1.5), and for just the second time all year. This time against a Bengals defense that ranks 2nd-worst in YPC allowed (5.21). Still, based on the volume McKissic has been getting (granted, in mostly negative game script) it’s not obvious to me that Gibson is the better play this week. And in fact, both are likely strong DFS values, with Gibson priced at $5,800 / $6,500 and McKissic at $5,200 / $5,600. I’m confident both RBs are better plays than ownership will imply.”
Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
[DK: RB4, FD: RB4]
Henry averages just 9.4 FPG over his last 2 games. Before that, he averaged 23.2 FPG over his prior 14, hitting 23.5 fantasy points in 57% of those games, or 19.0 DKFP in 79% of those games. He’s a strong leverage play off of the far chalkier Dalvin Cook. Baltimore will be without Brandon Williams and Calais Campbell this week. Since Week 6, they’re giving up 101.6 rushing YPG and 5.5 YPC to opposing RBs.
James Robinson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
[DK: RB12, FD: RB11]
Here’s what I had to say about Robinson in Start/Sit: “Robinson has finished 2nd (Week 7), 4th (Week 9), and 5th (Week 10) in XFP over his last 3 games. Over this span, Robinson earned 90%, 73%, and 82% of the team’s snaps. He averages 19.2 XFP per game (2nd-most) and 19.7 FPG (3rd-most) over this stretch. And Jacksonville has lost those 3 games by a combined 16 points. Chris Thompson sat out Week 7 (COVID) and missed part of Week 10 due to a back injury. He’s now on the injured reserve. Robinson gets a bottom-5 matchup this week against the Steelers, but with a bell cow-workload imminent, he should still be started as a low-end RB1 at worst.”
Despite the tough matchup, he’s a strong tournament option, priced as just the 12th (DK) and 11th (FD) most-expensive RB on the slate.
Mike Davis, RB, Carolina Panthers
[DK: RB8, FD: RB10]
Remember when Mike Davis was 90% Christian McCaffrey, priced at 70% Christian McCaffrey? Man, that was fun.
Unfortunately, Davis has been held under 9.0 fantasy points in 4 straight games, and has failed to eclipse 12.5 fantasy points in each of his last 5 games. He might be banged up – that’s a real concern. But he’s also easily had the league’s toughest RB schedule to-date, worth a combined -4.1 FPG since Week 2. Excluding the week McCaffrey started, the defenses he’s faced have ranked 11th, 23rd, 28th, 28th, 30th, 30th, 31st, and 32nd in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing RBs. Yeah, that’s brutal. He easily gets his softest matchup of the season this week, against a Lions defense that’s giving up the most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs (+10.4), and most by a good margin (+3.5 more than next-closest). Detroit ranks worst in total FPG allowed, worst in receiving FPG allowed, 2nd-worst in rushing FPG allowed, and 5th-worst in YPC allowed (4.86) to opposing RBs.
Davis saw his snap share drop from 80% (Weeks 3-8) to 52% in Week 10, though he did miss some time in that game due to injury. Rodney Smith and Curtis Samuel each saw 3 carries on the day. Samuel could eat into Davis’ workload, but I’d bet on Davis returning to bell cow-status this week. He’s not without warts, but he is one of the better RB plays of the slate.
Other / Notes
- Nyheim Hines absolutely beasted last week, totaling 28.5 fantasy points on 12 of 27 carries and 6 of 9 targets out of the backfield. There’s a chance he’s earned a bigger workload, or the team will decide to ride his “hot hand” again this week. In any case, Indianapolis RBs get a dream matchup against a Packers defense that is giving up the 2nd-most total FPG, the 2nd-most receiving FPG, and the 4th-most rushing FPG to opposing RBs.
- James Conner is a fine contrarian option and a decent value (on FanDuel) in a top-5 matchup. His usage has been alarming in recent weeks, but he's also the lead back for a Pittsburgh team that has the highest implied point total of the slate (28.25). It hasn’t been true in recent weeks, but he’s long been one of the most game script-sensitive RBs in fantasy, and game script should be about perfect this week, favored by 10.5-points.
- I wrote up Damien Harris in Values earlier this week, but, personally, I’m far less bullish than our projections. The matchup is no doubt great, but Cam Newton is also effectively the team’s goal-line back, and Rex Burkhead has been mixing in a good amount. He’s a fine swing-for-the-fences play for tournaments (on FanDuel) though.
- Salvon Ahmed saw 77% of the team’s snaps in Week 10, totaling 90 yards on 21 of 25 carries and 1 of 1 target out of the backfield. That’s just about a true bell cow-workload, and it’s certainly possible he sees a similar workload this week, at a measly $4,800 / $5,600 price-tag, but I’m pessimistic – Matt Breida will be back this week. Still, there’s a chance I’m wrong, and Denver’s defense was brutalized by Las Vegas RBs last week, yielding 37 carries, 193 yards, and 4 TDs to Josh Jacobs and Devontae Booker.
- Aaron Jones is another similarly strong leverage play off of Dalvin Cook. It’s a bottom-5 matchup, but he’s still seeing top-5 usage. Tyler Ervin is out, he’s not too expensive after busting last week, and as we know, always offers slate-busting upside.
- Similarly, Alvin Kamara is a tough play on paper with Taysom Hill starting. But it’s Alvin Kamara, and this might be our only chance to grab him at low ownership.
Wide Receivers
Tier 1
Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
[DK: WR3, FD: WR4]
You know the deal by now. Since Justin Herbert’s first start in Week 2, Allen is averaging 18.5 XFP, 21.7 fantasy points, and 11.9 targets per four quarters. If over the full season, those numbers would rank 2nd, 2nd, and 1st, respectively. The Jets were already giving up the 7th-most FPG to opposing WRs and are now without all 3 starting CBs – slot CB Brian Poole is on IR, Bless Austin is OUT, and Pierre Desir was cut. Yikes.
Mike Williams is also in play, priced as the 29th (DK) and 27th (FD) most expensive WR on the slate. He averages 6.7 targets, 12.8 XFP, and 13.3 FPG over his last three games. Those are high-end WR3 numbers. He’s a fine play in a pillow-soft matchup.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Football Team
[DK: WR7, FD: WR8]
McLaurin is a glaring value on both sites, but especially FanDuel. Here’s what we had to say about him in Start/Sit:
“It can be easily argued that McLaurin’s had the league’s toughest CB draw to-date. Shadow coverage from Darius Slay (Week 1), Patrick Peterson (Week 2), James Bradberry (Weeks 6 & 9), Trevon Diggs (Week 7), and Desmond Trufant (Week 10). His 3 non-shadow games came against the league’s toughest, 2nd-toughest, and 15th-toughest defenses against opposing outside WRs. It’s also even easier to argue that McLaurin’s been the most disadvantaged WR by poor QB play. And still, he averages 17.2 FPG (11th-most) on 9.6 targets per game (6th-most). The good news is, this matchup appears soft – the Bengals are giving up the 4th-most FPG (27.4) and the 2nd-most fantasy points per target (2.24) to opposing outside WRs, which is where McLaurin runs 75% of his routes. Better yet, Alex Smith may be a big improvement on Kyle Allen and Dwayne Haskins. McLaurin averages 8.5 targets, 105.0 yards, and 21.4 FPG over the last two weeks with Smith under center.”
Our resident WR-expert Wes Huber went even more in-depth here and here.
Steelers Wide Receivers
According to the SuperModel, Johnson ranks 1st on FanDuel (+959) and 2nd on DraftKings (+789) in terms of value. Here’s what we had to say about him in the XFP Report:
“Diontae Johnson only does 1 of 2 things: either he gets hurt in the 1st Quarter, or he sees double-digit targets and goes off.
What did Johnson do in Week 11? He didn’t get hurt in the 1st Quarter, and, well, you know the rules…
Excluding Weeks 3, 5, and 8 (the games he suffered an injury in the 1st Quarter), Johnson is averaging an absurd 12.0 targets (28% target share), 19.1 XFP, and 20.3 fantasy points per game. If over a full season, those numbers would rank 1st-, 2nd-, and 3rd-best among WRs.
But we shouldn’t sleep on Claypool either. In Week 10, Claypool ranked 3rd among all WRs in XFP (23.7), JuJu Smith-Schuster ranked 7th (20.4), and Johnson ranked 8th (17.3). In Week 9, Claypool ranked 7th among all WRs (21.3), again ahead of Johnson (15.0) and Smith-Schuster (10.0). Claypool leads all WRs in XFP over the last 2 weeks, and his 30 targets over the last 3 weeks ranks behind only Davante Adams (34).”
Johnson is no-doubt severely mispriced and there’s a good chance he’s about $1,300 cheaper now than where he ends the season, and he’s probably the best play of Pitttsburgh’s 3 WRs, but he also might have the toughest matchup of the 3. According to Wes Huber, there’s a chance Sidney Jones shadows. Among all starting CBs (this week), Jones ranks 7th-best in PFF Grade (75.5), while C.J. Henderson – Jacksonville’s other outside CB – ranks 47th (57.9), and Tre Hendon – the slot CB – ranks 74th (48.2). Still, Jones ranks 2nd-worst of 84-qualifying CBs in yards allowed per snap in coverage (2.14), so I’m not too worried.
Jacksonville is giving up the 9th-most FPG to opposing slot WRs (7th-most fantasy points allowed per target) and the 12th-most FPG to opposing outside WRs (7th-most fantasy points allowed per target). They’re giving up the 10th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WR1s and the 7th-most to opposing WR3s. Really, this is a great matchup for all of Pittsburgh’s WRs, all are great values, and all are firmly in play.
Per the SuperModel, Johnson leads all WRs in value on FanDuel (+959), but Smith-Schuster ranks 2nd (+953), and Claypool ranks 3rd (+913). On DraftKings, Johnson ranks 7th-best among all players (+789), Claypool ranks 15th (+473), and Smith-Schuster ranks 23rd (+349).
Justin Jefferson / Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Since Week 6, Jefferson trumps Thielen in XFP per Game (12.7 to 10.0), FPG (18.5 to 11.5), and YPG (97.8 to 39.8). Among all WRs, Jefferson ranks 1st in YPRR (3.23) and 2nd in PFF Grade (92.1). Yeah, he’s a freak.
Dallas ranks 8th-worst in FPG allowed to opposing outside WRs, and 3rd-worst in fantasy points allowed per target. Against the slot they rank much better (9th-best), so the matchup is slightly softer for Thielen, who only runs 22% of his routes from the slot (about half as much as Jefferson). But still, that feels like splitting hairs – the matchup is really just very soft overall.
So who do you play? You can play both – their production is nowhere near as negatively correlated together as, let’s say, Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. You can play neither, expecting Kirk Cousins to play possum while Dalvin Cook lights up the Cowboys on the ground. But if you can only play one…
On FanDuel it’s easy. Jefferson is way too cheap, priced as just the 14th most-expensive WR on the slate, $1,200 cheaper than Thielen. He’s a borderline must-play on FanDuel.
But on DraftKings, it’s much closer, with only $300 separating the 2 WRs. I think I still lean Jefferson, but our resident WR expert Wes Huber prefers Thielen. Here’s what he had to say:
“It’s very rare that you’ll see me tout Adam Thielen outside of games facing man coverage-heavy defenses. However, this happens to be one of those occasions. If you remember back to Week 1, the Packers built a 19-point lead at the end of the third quarter. The Minnesota offense had been closed off from production to embarrassing lengths. Without regard to that success, Green Bay decided to defend from a Cover 4 during the final quarter. Kirk Cousins immediately recognized the shift from the Cover 2, 3, and 6 formula, and began connecting with Thielen for what amounted to 5/80/2 of his overall 6/110/2 receiving line and 79 percent of Cousins’ Week 1 FPs.
The closest Thielen has come to that many Cover 4 snaps was last week against the Bears when he produced a 4/43/2 line and 20.3 FPs. That is, until he is opposed by Dallas’ fifth-highest rate of Cover 4 (21 percent) in Week 11. To top that off, the Cowboys also play a considerable amount of man from a Cover 1 (26 percent). Not high enough to push the Minnesota passing offense to must-start status, but enough for us to expose several GPP lineups to Cousins and Thielen. I wouldn’t go as far as to stack Justin Jefferson with Thielen since the Vikings’ pace ranks toward the bottom from running so much. If you prefer Jefferson to Thielen, a Cousins-Dalvin Cook-Jefferson stack would cover your bases, and make a lot more sense.”
Tier 2
Julio Jones / Calvin Ridley, WR, Atlanta Falcons
Starting with his most recent game, Jones has scored 16.4, 23.7, 17.7, and 36.7 fantasy points over his last 4 games, averaging 9.0 targets and 23.6 FPG over this span.
Starting with his most recent game, Ridley has scored 7.2, 19.9, 18.9, and 24.6 fantasy points over his last 4 games, averaging 7.0 targets and 17.7 FPG over this span.
Starting with his most recent game, Jones has totaled 79, 147, 96, 149, 98, and 96 yards over his last 6 games against New Orleans. For Ridley, 91, 28, 93, and 146.
So, who do you play? According to Wes Huber, it’s easy. The Saints play Cover-4 at the league’s 4th-highest rate. “Julio leads the planet with 0.75 FP/Rt the last two seasons versus Cover-4. That’s nearly double Ridley’s 0.39.”
Jakobi Meyers, WR, New England Patriots
[DK: WR31, FD: WR26]
Meyers totaled 13.1 XFP in Week 10, which might not seem like a lot, but all other New England WRs totaled exactly 0.0 XFP on the week. In Week 9, he totaled 14 targets and 23.2 XFP, which ranked 4th most among WRs on the week. On livestream, Greg Cosell gushed over his tape, and how quickly he’s broken out as a true WR1 for the Patriots. Believe it or not, he ranks 3rd among all WRs in PFF Grade (87.5) and ranks 3rd in YPRR (2.99). Unfortunately, there’s probably a ~70% chance Bradley Roby shadows this week, which would push this matchup (on paper at least) from top-7 to bottom-7. Roby has given up a few touchdowns, but ranks top-10 in yards allowed per snap in coverage, despite routinely shadowing the league’s best WRs. Still, Meyers is a slower big-bodied WR, while Roby’s trump card is his speed, so I’m not writing this off as a must-avoid situation.
Brandin Cooks, WR, Houston Texans
[DK: WR28, FD: WR25]
Since the Bill O’Brien firing heading into Week 5, Brandin Cooks has seen better volume (measured by XFP) than Will Fuller in 5 of 5 games. Over this span, he averages 17.0 XFP per game (5th-most) to Fuller’s 13.5 (26th-most). Cooks has seen at least 8 targets in every game, averaging 9.4 per game to Fuller’s 7.6. He ranks 9th in FPG (18.4) over this span, while Fuller ranks 17th (16.5). He’s a massive value, priced as just the 28th- (DK) and 25th- (FD) most expensive WR on the slate. The matchup is hard to decipher, but Fuller has historically struggled against New England, and Stephon Gilmore (knee), should he play, is unlikely to shadow.
Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers
[DK: WR1, FD: WR1]
In 6 healthy games, Davante Adams has finished 1st, 31st, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, and 10th in fantasy points among WRs. He’s finished 1st, 19th, 2nd, 2nd, 5th, and 5th in XFP. That’s uhhh… uh… pretty crazy.
Basically, he's playing out of his [EXPLETIVE] mind. But he also gets a brutal draw this week, and he was limited in practice earlier in the week due to an ankle injury. Indianapolis – for the 3rd-consecutive season – ranks top-5 in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing WR1s. Is he matchup proof? Maybe. Could he break the slate in spite of the top matchup? Maybe.
He’s not a must-play, but that slate-busting upside is real and it is terrifying.
Allen Lazard is a little mispriced as just the 37th- (DK) and 38th- (FD) most-expensive WR on the slate. He’s fully healthy (Green Bay is very conservative with injuries) and averages 18.4 DKFPG in 3 games this year. He’s a decent off-the-wall play for those looking for a lower-owned name with upside.
Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
[DK: WR15, FD: WR17]
Higgins has seen 8 or more targets in 4 of his last 5 games, and has hit at least 70 yards in 5 of his last 6 games. Since Week 3, Higgins ranks 11th in FPG (17.2). Since Week 6, he ranks 8th in FPG (19.1) and 22nd in XFP per game (13.7). Over the same span, Tyler Boyd ranks 12th (17.5) and 13th (15.4).
It’s been hard to pick between the 2 WRs each week, but I think this week it’s easy. Washington has given up 68% of their WR production to outside WRs, which ranks 3rd-most. A.J. Green is dust, so expect heavy target-volume to be funneled towards Higgins (and away from Boyd) this week. It’s still not a soft matchup by any stretch, but he is a decent value, priced as just 15th- (DK) and 17th- (FD) most-expensive WR on the slate.
Tier 3
Jamison Crowder, WR, New York Jets
[DK: WR12, FD: WR15]
Here’s what I had to say about Crowder in Start/Sit:
“Crowder wasn’t quite fully healthy in Week 9, but still walked away with 10.6 fantasy points on just 19 routes. For perspective, he averaged 41.8 routes per game heading into Week 9. Before that, in the 4 games he was active, Crowder finished 2nd, 19th, 16th, and 8th among WRs in XFP, drawing double-digit targets in every game and reaching 100-plus yards in 3 of 4. He came into Week 9, ranking 2nd among all WRs in XFP per game (18.3), 2nd in XFP% (25.9%), 5th in FPG (19.8), and 1st in targets per game (11.5). He should now be fully healthy off of the team’s Week 10 bye. But Chargers’ slot CB Chris Harris Jr. is likely to sit out again this week, which means Crowder gets a pillow-soft matchup against Tevaughn Campbell. The Chargers are giving up the 2nd-most fantasy points per target to opposing slot WRs (2.28), and that’s also where they’ve surrendered 45% of their WR production (7th-most). So, a slot funnel offense meets a slot funnel defense. You know what to do.”
The price isn’t perfect, so he’s just a Tier 3 play. And please do pivot if Chris Harris Jr. surprises us and plays. If that's the case, pivot to Breshad Perriman (and not Denzel Mims) – who was vaguely in play anyway – who averages 7.5 targets and 20.2 DKFPG when playing alongside Joe Flacco.
A.J. Brown, WR, Tennessee Titans
[DK: WR5, FD: WR7]
Brown is getting absolutely zero buzz this week, but Wes Huber is so confident in him going off, he wrote him up twice. You can read for yourself what he had to say here and here.
For the lazy, here’s the “Bottom Line”:
“…[W]e can count on Baltimore playing man coverages and Cover 3 on three-fourths of all snaps. Brown leads all NFL receivers (including TEs) during his two-year career with 0.63 FP/Rt when facing Cover 3 shells. For a perfect example of what he’s capable of against a defense featuring Cover 1 and Cover 3 shells, look no further than the results from Week 7 against Pittsburgh. On 17 snaps against those schemes from the Steelers, Brown collected 5/132/1 of his 6/153/1 overall receiving line. If you’re counting at home, that’s 89 percent of his FPs on 53 percent of total routes.”
Marvin Hall, WR, Detroit Lions
[DK: WR49, FD: WR58]
WRs Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola are out. TE T.J. Hockenson is banged up dealing with a toe injury. Hall is averaging 5.0 targets and 12.7 DKFPG over his last 3 games. He’s just $3,800 on DraftKings this week, and against a Panthers defense that is giving up the 7th-most FPG to opposing outside WRs.
Wes Huber dove in deep here.
Chris Conley, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
[DK: WR74, FD: WR67]
Conley has seen 8 targets in back-to-back games, 1 off of D.J. Chark’s team-high 19 targets, totaling 11 catches for 95 yards over this stretch. The Steelers are probably a neutral matchup, giving up the 22nd-most FPG and the 6th-most fantasy points per target (2.02) to opposing outside WRs. But, really, the argument is simple – he shouldn’t be minimum priced with Laviska Shenault still out, and he is on DraftKings ($3,000).
Robby Anderson, WR, Carolina Panthers
[DK: WR13, FD: WR22]
If Teddy Bridgewater sits out, all bets are off. But as it stands, Anderson is popping as our No. 4 WR value on FanDuel (behind the 3 Pittsburgh WRs) as per the SuperModel (+659).
Anderson ranks 9th in targets per game (8.8), 13th in XFP per game (14.5), and 10th in YPG (77.2). He’s gotten a little unlucky in the touchdown department, failing to find the end zone in each of his last 9 games, but is due for a regression in that regard. And has offered a sky-high floor in spite of that bad luck. He’s glaringly mispriced as just the 22nd most-expensive WR on FanDuel, and the matchup is soft. We’re projecting Desmond Trufant to shadow D.J. Moore, leaving Anderson on Amani Oruwariye, who we’ve been targeting in DFS all year.
Curtis Samuel would also be vaguely in play if Bridgewater plays. He flopped last week, but has seen 3 carries in 3 straight games and 5-9 targets in 5 straight games.
K.J. Hamler, WR, Denver Broncos
[DK: WR54, FD: WR52]
K.J. Hamler – the Hamgod – has back-to-back 10-target games, he’s just $3,500, and no one wants to play him against a Dolphins defense that is giving up the 10th-most FPG to opposing slot WRs? K….
He’s a strong value, but all bets are off if Drew Lock sits out.
Jalen Reagor, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
[DK: WR43, FD: 35]
Reagor is a fine punt-option at just $4,300 on DraftKings. He’s seen 7 and 6 targets in his last 2 games. Cleveland is a premier slot funnel defense, but they're still neutral-at-worst against outside WRs.
Tight Ends
Tier 1
Taysom Hill, TE, New Orleans Saints (FanDuel Only)
[FD: TE28]
Yeah………… Just play him. In 100% of lineups. The end.
Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles
[DK: TE11, FD: TE5]
Goedert is our top TE value on DraftKings per the SuperModel, and a top-2 value overall (+932).
He remains a top play for all of the reasons he was a top play last week, though he failed to pay off. He ended last season hitting double-digit fantasy points in 8 of the last 10 games, averaging 6.9 targets and 12.4 FPG. Prior to injury, he averaged 8.5 targets and 15.6 FPG. Keep in mind, this was with Zach Ertz on the field. He’s struggled recently while dealing with injury, but he’s run a route on 79% of Carson Wentz’s dropbacks over his last two games. He gets a top-6 matchup this week, after a bottom-6 matchup last week – the Browns are giving up the 6th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing TEs (+2.6).
Truthfully, I’m not so sure why he flopped last week. But he certainly shouldn’t be only $3,800, and he does offer sky-high upside with Ertz still out.
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
[DK: TE1, FD: TE1]
Andrews is just about tied with Goedert as your top TE value o. Here’s what I had to say about him in Start/Sit:
“Andrews saw season-highs in routes run (33), targets (9), catches (7), and receiving yards (61) in Week 10. It’s no coincidence that this was also a game in which Nick Boyle left early with a gruesome knee injury. He’s now out for the year, opening a pathway for Andrews to finally see a full-time workload – he’s played on just 65% of the team’s snaps thus far. He also gets a premier matchup against a Titans defense that is giving up the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing TEs (+2.7). Start him with confidence as an easy top-3 TE this week.”
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Detroit Lions
[DK: TE7, FD: TE3]
Here’s what we had to say about Hockenson last week:
“Since Week 6, Hockenson ranks 2nd in FPG (13.8) and 2nd in XFP per game (15.3). He’s finally seen an uptick in target volume with Kenny Golladay out (recording 18 targets over his last 2 games), which he’ll now pair with phenomenal target quality. He ranks 46th among all players in targets (49) but ranks 1st in targets inside the 5-yard line (6), 2nd in end zone targets (9), and 2nd in XTD per target (0.11). He gets a top-5 matchup this week, against a Washington defense that is good everywhere – everywhere but to TEs, where they’re abysmal. They’re giving up the 6th-most FPG to opposing TEs (15.4), which represents a league-high 32.6% of their total receiving FPG allowed.
He’s badly mispriced on both sites, but apparently is now dealing with a toe injury and is listed as Questionable. I’m not quite sure of what to make of this. I’ll have an update for you tomorrow.”
Hockenson flopped last week, catching 2 of 4 targets for just 13 yards. Perhaps this was related to the toe injury. He’s still on the injury report with that injury, and has only practiced in a limited capacity all week. Matthew Stafford is also battling an injury (thumb), which isn’t ideal, but Danny Amendola (hip), Kenny Golladay (hip), and D’Andre Swift (concussion) appear to be even more badly banged up, which ideally should push more targets towards Hockenson. He’s risky, but is again a terrific value, badly mispriced on DraftKings.
Tier 2 / Other / Notes:
- Logan Thomas deserves some attention. He’s just $3,300 in a top on-paper matchup against the Bengals, and after averaging 11.4 FPG (4.8 targets per game) over his last 4 games. But Wes Huber wrote him up as an avoid this week. The matchup is only good on paper, Thomas is the league’s worst TE against man coverage, which is what he’ll be seeing this week.
- Austin Hooper caught just 1 of 2 targets for 11 yards last week, but we can easily ignore the lack of production there (due to weather) and focus on the fact that he ran a route on 82% of Baker Mayfield’s dropbacks. Before that, he averaged 7.7 targets and 11.8 FPG over his prior 3 games. He gets an Eagles defense that is giving up the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing TEs.
- Hunter Henry, Eric Ebron, Noah Fant, maybe Jared Cook? All in play. Not as strong of a play as the other TEs mentioned above.
Quarterbacks
Tier 1
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
[DK: QB3, FD: QB2]
According to our projections, Herbert is the top QB value this week, providing 3.34X value on DraftKings and 2.67X value on FanDuel. Here’s what we had to say about him in Start/Sit:
“Since Week 4 (his 3rd career start), Herbert averages 26.3 FPG, which ranks 2nd-best among QBs, behind only Kyler Murray. He’s reached 40 pass attempts in 3 of his last 4 games, and averages 6.0 rushing FPG over this span. All of this, meanwhile, has been accomplished in spite of the league’s 4th-toughest QB schedule to-date, worth about -1.0 FPG off of his per-game average. This week, he gets a top-5 matchup, and his best matchup since he torched the Jaguars to the tune of 38.5 fantasy points in Week 7. The Jets are giving up the 4th-most FPG to opposing QBs (22.4), while also ranking bottom-5 in opposing passer rating (103.8) and passing fantasy points allowed per pass attempt (0.632). He’s an easy must-start top-5 QB this week.”
Oh, and we didn’t even mention the fact that the Jets will be without all 3 starting CBs this week. There’s a chance Los Angeles leans massively run-heavy in a game they should win easily (-9.5), but he could still hit big even if that is the case. And New York’s defense is super pass-funnelish, so we could also be looking at a game like we saw in Week 8, when Patrick Mahomes torched the Jets, throwing for 416 yards and 5 TDs.
Taysom Hill, QB, New Orleans Saints
[DK: QB33]
“Oh boy.”
Per Saints beat writer for ESPN, Mike Triplett, “the Saints plan to start Hill at QB ahead of Jameis Winston.” He “took all of the starter reps at practice this week.” Per ESPN’s Dianna Russini, “Winston will not be part of any offensive packages unless needed because of injury.”
Perhaps we should have seen this coming. Here’s what I wrote in the offseason: According to Jay Glazer, the Saints “are all about Hill after Brees retires,” viewing him as their “franchise quarterback” of the future. And last week, Sean Payton essentially confirmed that report, saying “[Hill] is transitioning into quarterback-only… We think he’s going to be an outstanding NFL quarterback.”
Hill is easily one of the best plays of the slate on DraftKings, priced at just $4,800. On FanDuel, he might have just broken the damn slate, priced at just $4,500 with TE eligibility.
There were no preseason games this past offseason, but in 2019, Hill played as a true QB (rather than in his typical gadget role) and played well, finishing 5th of 84 qualifying quarterbacks in PFF grade. And, since 2018, he’s averaged 0.67 fantasy points per dropback in the preseason. For perspective, Mahomes averages 0.65 fantasy points per dropback across his full career.
Don’t ever underestimate the power of the Konami Code. When a rushing touchdown is worth 1.5X a passing touchdown and a rushing yard is worth 2.5X a passing yard, mobile quarterbacks really are a fantasy cheat code. Of course, we saw that from Lamar Jackson last year and Kyler Murray this year, but even Tim Tebow finished as a fantasy QB1. And, in 14 career starts, Tebow hit 17.0 fantasy points 64% of the time, and he hit 22.0 fantasy points 43% of the time.
And the matchup is ideal – Atlanta is giving up a league-high +8.2 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs, while also ranking bottom-7 in rushing FPG allowed (4.7), passer rating allowed (105.6), and fantasy points allowed per dropback.
Hill is probably a top-2 QB play on DraftKings. And a must-play on FanDuel at TE. Downgrade all other Saints players, including Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Jared Cook.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans
[DK: QB6, FD: QB7]
If excluding last week’s game due to weather-related issues (gusts of wind up to 45 mph), where the Over/Under dropped 8.5 points and neither team reached even 165 yards passing…. Watson has reached 24.0 fantasy points in 4 of 4 games since the firing of Bill O’Brien, averaging 26.8 FPG and a league-high 321.0 passing YPG over that span. On paper, the matchup doesn’t seem very good – New England is giving up the 7th-fewest FPG to opposing QBs (17.0). But digging in deeper, they’re giving up the 6th-most passing fantasy points per pass attempt (0.62). They also historically struggle against more mobile QBs, and Watson averages 8.3 carries and 41.3 rushing yards over his last 3 games, hitting at least 25 rushing yards in each of his last 5 games.
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
[DK: QB4, FD: QB5]
Roethlisberger has the highest implied point total of the slate (28.25). He has a top-3 matchup – Jacksonville is giving up the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs (+3.7), while also ranking dead-last in passing fantasy points allowed per pass attempt (0.71) and 2nd-worst in opposing passer rating (107.8). This very well could be a James Conner week, but you could have said that in each of Pittsburgh’s last 2 games, and you would have been wrong. Pittsburgh has passed on a league-high 69% of their plays since Week 7, and despite winning all of those games, and by a combined 38 points. Roethlisberger isn’t cheap, but all of his stacking options are popping as top values on both sites as per the DFS SuperModel. He’s not at all in play for cash, but he’s a phenomenal option for tournaments.
Tier 2 / Other
- Joe Burrow has struggled against good pass rushes all year, and Washington no doubt has a top pass rush. But they also rank perfectly neutral in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing QBs, and Burrow is awesome, and way too cheap on DraftKings this week.
- Lamar Jackson is a fine ceiling play for tournaments. He's hit at least 50 rushing yards in 7 of his last 8 games, averaging 71.5 rushing YPG over his last 4 games. He struggled mightily through the air but did rush for 143 yards against the Titans last year. They’re now giving up the 5th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs (+2.5).
- Cam Newton isn’t a sexy play by any stretch but could fall into the end zone once or twice in a soft matchup. So, he’s basically the Todd Gurley of QBs.
Leverage Plays
This article is a lot of work. Seriously, a lot. My plan was to just list the top plays, and then dive deep into ownership / contrarian plays / leverage plays tomorrow for the Sunday AM Update (published Saturday PM and then updated through lock). That’s still the plan. But here’s a super contrarian play I like quite a bit:
Just about every option on Dallas’ offense is priced about 75% off of where they were in Week 5. Just about every option on Dallas’ offense is projected to be 7% owned or less. Or, at least 50% of their Week 5 ownership. So, imagine if Dallas’ offense is just 85% as effective as they were when Dak Prescott was healthy.
It's easy to throw out the Ben DiNucci and Garrett Gilbert games. And what's our sample with Andy Dalton? He struggled and got hurt in Week 7. He was terrible in Week 6. And he was terrific in relief in Week 5.
Even if he’s bad again this week, volume should be good – he threw 54 times in Week 6. And, maybe, he’ll actually be good this week. Here’s what Wes Huber had to say in Advanced Matchups:
“Dalton will have the red carpet rolled out in front of him in Week 11. During his 10-year career, Dalton has taken a roller coaster ride from being just on the cusp of becoming the future of the Cincinnati offense to one management couldn’t replace fast enough. One of the abilities that has allowed “The Red Rifle” to make it this far is his destruction of Cover 2 defenses.
While I don’t have the data prior to the start of the 2019 season, what I do have from his last 700-plus dropbacks is compelling enough that he deserves some consideration. How many other QBs have an Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup in tow, priced at $5.3K/$6.9K? In return for the 15 percent of dropbacks over Dalton’s last 17 games, he’s pieced together 20 percent of his yardage, and 24 percent of TDs (4-1 TD-INT). That may not blow you away, but Dalton ranks fifth in the league with 0.39 FP/Db when facing Cover 2 over that time.
Dalton will face off with Cover 2 shells from the Vikings at an NFL high 27 percent on Sunday. With one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL from Minnesota, the Vikings will attempt to limit the Cowboys’ offense, not with defense, but with the second-highest rushing rate, and third-lowest pace. Dallas ranks first in the NFL with 76.0 offensive plays/game. If the Cowboys can keep Dalvin Cook off the field, Dalton stacked with some of his drooling-for-primetime WR trio could end up on the Milly-Maker winning ticket this weekend.”
According to Graham Barfield, “Cowboys + Cook is the ultimate leverage in tournaments." And I can’t say I disagree.
The Vikings are giving up the 7th-most FPG and the 3rd-most fantasy points per target to opposing slot WRs. They’re giving up the 6th-most FPG and the 9th-most fantasy points per target to opposing outside WRs. They’re giving up the 6th-most FPG to opposing WRs on deep passes.
Dalton has targeted CeeDee Lamb on 25% of his throws, compared to 22% for Amari Cooper, and 14% for Michael Gallup. Lamb is the better play overall, but Cooper may still be the better upside play.
It’s a neutral on-paper matchup for Ezekiel Elliott, but this is also the cheapest he’s ever been. Before the DiNucci / Gilbert games, Elliott was averaging 19.0 FPG along with a league-high 22.3 XFP per game. He’s very in play at just $6,500 on DraftKings.
Again, it’s thin. Taysom Hill is a way better play than Dalton. All Dallas options are super risky. But the off-the-wall super-contrarian plays are fun, and I had fun writing this.
