Welcome to Tom Brolley’s Best Bets: Week 6. I’m a senior writer and owner at Fantasy Points who specializes in betting and fantasy analysis. This will be the main hub for my favorite NFL bets throughout the season. I will give my favorite spread and player prop bets every week through the Super Bowl. Be sure to check back regularly up to kickoff to see what wagers I have lined up for the week ahead.
My Typical Posting Schedule
Mondays 9 to 11 a.m. — Initial ATS picks
Wednesdays 3 to 6 p.m. — Initial Player Props
Thursdays 3 to 5 p.m. — Second wave of Player Props
Fridays 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. — Third wave of Player Props
Saturday 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. — Fourth wave of Player Props
Sunday 8:30 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. — Final Players Props
Join our “#official-bets” Fantasy Points Discord to see our staff's wagers as soon as we make them! Also, be sure to check out Justin Varnes’ weekly IDP Prop Bets and our entire staff’s Best Bets!
PLAYER PROPS
2025 Player Props Record: 49-19 (72.1%, +26.75 units); Week 5: 13-1 (+11.82 unit)
All wagers with negative odds are to win one unit, and all wagers with positive odds are one-unit bets.
Thursday Night
Saquon Barkley (Phi) over 14.5 receiving yards (-116, DraftKings)
- FP Projection: 26.1 yards, 24+ yards in 3-of-5 games and 3+ receptions in 4-of-5 games, NYG allows 30.8 receiving YPG to RBs, NYG has allowed 28+ yards to individual RBs in 4-of-5 games, 10th-best Coverage Matchup among 46 RBs. Bet to 17.5 yards. Placed at 9:07 a.m. on Oct. 8.
Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG) under 46.5 receiving yards (-110, Bet365)
- FP Projection: 44.8 yards, 30 or fewer yards in three straight games, averaging .18 TPRR and .65 YPRR with a 1.2-yard aDOT in first two games w/ Dart, PHI allows the fewest YPRR (.84) and the second-fewest receiving YPG (39.4) to receivers aligned in the slot, Troy Franklin posted 3/35 receiving in this matchup last week, Robinson posted 6/23 and 10/43 receiving in two games against PHI last season. Bet to 44.5 yards. Placed at 9:20 a.m. on Oct. 8.
