Welcome to Tom Brolley’s Best Bets: Week 5. I’m a senior writer and owner at Fantasy Points who specializes in betting and fantasy analysis. This will be the main hub for my favorite NFL bets throughout the season. I will give my favorite spread and player prop bets every week through the Super Bowl. Be sure to check back regularly up to kickoff to see what wagers I have lined up for the week ahead.
My Typical Posting Schedule
Mondays 9 to 11 a.m. — Initial ATS picks
Wednesdays 3 to 6 p.m. — Initial Player Props
Thursdays 3 to 5 p.m. — Second wave of Player Props
Fridays 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. — Third wave of Player Props
Saturday 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. — Fourth wave of Player Props
Sunday 8:30 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. — Final Players Props
Join our “#official-bets” Fantasy Points Discord to see our staff's wagers as soon as we make them! Also, be sure to check out Justin Varnes’ weekly IDP Prop Bets and our entire staff’s Best Bets!
PLAYER PROPS
2025 Player Props Record: 37-18 (67.3%, +15.93 units); Week 5: 1-0 (+1 unit)
All wagers with negative odds are to win one unit, and all wagers with positive odds are one-unit bets.
Thursday Night
Jake Tonges (SF) over 22.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel) (W)
- FP Projection: 40.3 yards, 31+ yards in 2-of-3 games since taking over for Kittle, SF decimated by WR injuries, LAR deploy the sixth-highest rate (39.5%) of Cover 3, he averages 1.80 YPRR and .20 TPRR on 25 routes against the coverage. LAR allowed 28+ yards to a TE in every game. Bet to 28.5 yards. Placed at 5:44 p.m. on Oct. 1.
