Welcome to Advanced Matchups!
Using the Fantasy Points Data Suite, I’ll dig into coverage shells, blitz rates, individual matchups, and more every week throughout the season. If you believe this is too much overanalysis, Millionaire Maker winner rsbathla disagrees with you, crediting this very article as part of his process.
This column is mostly geared toward giving you an edge in large-field main slate tournaments on DraftKings, but I’ll also recommend player props so you can easily take advantage of my findings.
This year, I’ll be placing an additional focus on ceiling outcomes in this article, due to my offseason research revealing that this is the best way to utilize schematic matchups. I’ll still include ordinary over/under prop recommendations, but I am also going to make an effort to point out opportunities for ladder bets — that is, betting a “base rung” over/under in conjunction with at least one alternate over line for the player in question — to take advantage of ceiling predictions.
This article’s props are 13-7 (+2.39u) so far this season. For tracking purposes this year, only the base rung of any ladder counts for the record, but the units are displayed with the higher rungs (alternate lines at longer odds) included.
Key Ceiling Matchups
New to Advanced Matchups, here I’ll provide every player who qualifies as a ceiling game candidate (~35% to ~100% increased odds of scoring 20.0 or more PPR fantasy points, depending on the coverage shell) based on the criteria from this study.
However, this doesn’t necessarily mean I like every one of these players this week, as there’s plenty of additional context we must apply. You can CTRL + F each name to quickly find my thoughts on each of the players above. (If their name doesn’t appear in any of the write-ups below, it probably means I don’t like them very much, or that they aren’t on the main slate and have no props that interest me posted yet.)
If the above numbers or the linked study are confusing, don’t worry about it. Simply keep reading to learn what I think of these players (and many others) for this week.
Matchups To Target
Baker Mayfield, Emeka Egbuka, and Chris Godwin vs. the Seahawks’ Cover 4 and Cover 6-Heavy Defense
$6,300 (QB4) / $6,900 (WR4) / $5,900 (WR12), 4% / 12% / 5% Projected Ownership
In this week’s edition of The Everything Report, I broke down how the 2025 NFL meta makes the rare few offenses that are willing to take shots downfield even more valuable than usual, with touchdown efficiency and the big play ruling all. The QB/WR pairing that most embodies this ethos has a difficult on-paper matchup in Week 5 that will keep their ownership depressed. But their tendencies against this schematic matchup could flip all of that on its head.
The Seahawks have deployed Cover 4 and Cover 6 at the NFL’s 2nd-highest rate this season (36.8%). Emeka Egbuka leads the Buccaneers with a 30.6% target share and has been targeted on 37% of his routes against Cover 4, a +61% boost compared to all shells. He additionally averages 4.77 YPRR against quarters, which ranks 4th-best among 55 qualifying receivers this year. And against the combination of Cover 4 and Cover 6, Egbuka ranks 7th-best by FP/RR (0.66) — +40% more than against all other shells — and boasts a deep 17.1 aDOT. (Also, to be clear, while Egbuka’s broken coverage TD from Week 4 did come against quarters, that isn’t the only thing driving these splits — he has a 30.6% target share against Cover 4 on the season, and produced 63 receiving yards on 4 targets against Cover 4 alone the week prior.)
And this is all largely because Baker Mayfield is the most willing QB in the NFL to take downfield shots against these zone looks, excels in delivering catchable balls on these plays, and trusts Egbuka to win on the chances he gives him. Mayfield owns a league-high 155.8 passer rating against Cover 6, or 108.7 against Cover 4 (8th-best). Against the two shells in combination, he easily leads the NFL in deep throw rate (26.7%), ranks 2nd in FP/DB (0.70), and is inside the top-10 in catchable throw rate (80.0%) despite one of the league’s three deepest aDOTs. Mayfield also ranked top-3 in FP/DB and 4th-best in YPA against Cover 4 plus Cover 6 last season, so it’s not as if this is anything new or limited only to a small sample.
You can even optionally get Chris Godwin in on this for a double-stack, as in 2024, he averaged 3.88 YPRR (3rd-best) and 0.77 FP/RR (4th-best) against Cover 4 and Cover 6. His Week 4 utilization also points to a higher volatility (and arguably higher upside) role, running 63.2% of his routes from the outside and seeing 139 air yards (just 6 fewer than Egbuka) on 10 targets. That said, we’d also love any slot reps we get from Godwin this week if Seahawks’ slot corner Devon Witherspoon misses this game after he didn’t practice on Wednesday and Thursday.
There are many appealing contrarian stacks on this week’s slate, but the Buccaneers’ passing game in this consolidated state without Mike Evans and (likely) Bucky Irving takes the cake for me.
Mason Taylor vs. the Cowboys’ Cover 3-Heavy Defense
$2,800 (TE21), 3% Projected Ownership
The Cowboys have deployed Cover 3 at a top-5 rate this season (39.9%), doing so 42% and 66% of the time against the two mobile QBs they’ve faced (Jalen Hurts and Caleb Williams). DC Matt Eberflus also played Cover 3 at a top-2 rate (44.5%) last year as HC of the Bears. More broadly, the Cowboys are playing the 2nd-highest rate of zone coverage (87.6%).
Let’s begin with what this means for the primary pieces of the Jets’ passing game. Garrett Wilson’s TPRR falls from 0.27 to just 0.19 (a ~30% reduction) against Cover 3 this year, while his YPRR is nearly cut in half (from 3.91 to 2.02) when facing zone coverage instead of man coverage.
As for Justin Fields, he averages just 0.29 FP/DB and an 87.2 passer rating against zone coverage this year, compared to 1.81 FP/DB and a 138.4 passer rating against man. It’s a small sample, but in essence, he’s accumulated 38% of his fantasy points on just the 17% of his dropbacks that have come against man coverage, but just 29% of his fantasy points on the 81% of his dropbacks that have come against zone. (The rest is from designed rushing).
Fields’ man/zone splits weren’t as notable in 2024, but they were also quite wide in 2023, averaging 0.59 FP/DB against man, but just 0.34 FP/DB against zone. Plausible reasons for this include Fields’ reliance on his #1 receiver to win downfield (Wilson in this case, or D.J. Moore in the case of 2023) as well as the backs of defenders being turned when playing man coverage, allowing for more effective scrambling. I only bring any of this up because Justin Fields + Garrett Wilson is likely to be by far the most popular stack on this week’s slate, given that Fields projects as by far and away the best value at QB, and Wilson as a top-3 value at WR.
But honestly, there’s an excellent chance that this Cowboys’ defense is so bad that none of this will matter; they’ve allowed by far the most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs (+10.3) and outside WRs (+21.1), easily lead the NFL in ANY/A allowed (9.60) and deep receiving YPG allowed (122.5, nearly double that of any other team), and rank among the five worst defenses of the past 25 years by yards per play allowed (6.40). And Jalen Hurts ran for 62 yards and 2 TDs in Week 1 despite all of this. So while I don’t have the stones to fully fade Fields, I do want to be careful and creative with how I use him.
So rather than play Fields naked or with Wilson alone, we can take advantage of this schematic spot by including Mason Taylor, who was Brett Whitefield’s TE4 in this loaded rookie class. Taylor’s TPRR grows from 0.16 to 0.24 against Cover 3 — a +50% boost — while his YPRR more than doubles from 1.18 to 2.34. Taylor also straight-up leads the Jets in receiving against Cover 3 this year (89 yards to Wilson’s 66). At just $2,800 a week after the rookie hit a career-high in first-read target share (33%) and receiving yards (65) in a schematic matchup that should favor him, I like him whether he’s paired with Fields (with or without Wilson) to bring down the ownership of the stack, or as a standalone punt option.
Recommended Prop: Mason Taylor over 30.5 receiving yards (BetMGM, -110, risk 1u)
Spencer Rattler, Rashid Shaheed, and Chris Olave vs. the Giants’ Pass Funnel, Deep Funnel, and Man-Heavy Defense
$4,800 (QB17) / $4,500 (WR29) / $5,200 (WR22), 4% / 3% / 12% Projected Ownership
The Giants lead the NFL in both man (46.4%) and Cover 1 rate (40.8%) this season. We’re working with small relevant samples (as Spencer Rattler didn’t play much with the Saints’ starting WRs in 2024), but it jumps out to me that Rashid Shaheed is averaging 3.24 YPRR against Cover 1 this year — a +153% boost compared to his average against all shells — and also that Rattler has a 20.0% deep throw rate against man this season (2nd-highest behind only Josh Allen), compared to just 7.3% against zone (24th). Likewise, Rattler averages 0.53 FP/DB (would rank 11th) against man this season, compared to just 0.28 against zone (would rank 3rd-worst).
And it’s at least a little interesting that Rattler’s best fantasy performance this year — 21.7 DraftKings points in Week 2 against the 49ers — was the one where he saw the highest rate of Cover 1 (20%). He could see double that amount this week. This slate has enough strong pay-up options that paying down for a QB averaging more rushing YPG (25.5) than Drake Maye and Bo Nix on the offense playing at the 2nd-highest pace in the NFL (71 plays per game) has some appeal in GPPs.
And none of this is to say that Chris Olave isn’t a strong option as well; he ranks tied with Shaheed for the team lead in target share against man coverage (29.0%) and still ranks 2nd behind only Puka Nacua at the position in overall XFP/G (18.7), of which a shockingly high amount has been catchable (ranking 3rd in catchable XFP/G).
Finally, the Giants have allowed the highest pass rate over expectation of any defense (+9.0%), while the Saints have also been a pass funnel, allowing the 6th-highest PROE (+4.5%). And this New York secondary is surrendering the 4th-most receiving YPG on throws traveling 20 or more yards downfield (57.8). As gross as it feels to say about a game with a 42.5-point over/under, I do believe that game stacks are in play here.
Recommended Props: Rashid Shaheed over 35.5 receiving yards (Fanatics, -115, risk 1u), 50+ receiving yards (FanDuel, +182, risk 0.25u)
Tyler Warren vs. the Raiders’ Cover 3-Heavy and Play Action-Vulnerable Defense
$4,700 (TE4), 20% Projected Ownership
When their opponents don’t use play-action, the Raiders’ pass defense has been respectable, allowing just 6.36 YPA (12th-fewest). But on dropbacks where their opponents have utilized play action, the Raiders are surrendering 9.17 YPA (5th-most and a +44% efficiency boost) and a 13.7% CPOE (3rd-highest). That means the Colts — who lead the NFL with a 37.6% play action dropback rate, and Daniel Jones, who ranks top-4 in YPA (9.9) and leads the league in YPG (113.5) on play action — should match up especially well here.
With that in mind, it is incredibly notable to me that Tyler Warren averages a bonkers 6.47 YPRR on play action (which obviously leads the NFL), accumulating 59% of his targets and 74% of his yardage on only those plays (making up just 29% of his routes) this season. Warren ranks 6th-best among all WRs in play action FP/RR (1.08) despite not having scored a TD yet on play action, while the rest of the top-10 in that statistic have combined for 14 TDs.
Additionally, the Raiders are deploying Cover 3 at the highest rate in the NFL (54.4%), after HC Pete Carroll similarly ranked top-3 in Cover 3 rate with the Seahawks back in 2023. Yet another week of Warren outproducing Michael Pittman against this shell has me firmly believing that Warren has taken the mantle from him as the Colts’ Cover 3 beater; Warren’s 32.3% target share and 0.74 FP/RR against Cover 3 rank 4th-best and 5th-best among all WRs, respectively. As the Key Ceiling Matchups table at the top of this article indicates, he experiences +31% and +85% boosts to his TPRR and YPRR against Cover 3, respectively.
I’m also willing to entirely overlook the fact that the Raiders appear (at first glance) as a bottom-5 schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing TEs (-4.7). Hunter Henry and Cole Kmet commanded 8 and 9 targets apiece against this defense but simply failed to find the end zone. No other TE has run more than a 58% route share against the Raiders this year. They aren’t a truly difficult on-paper matchup for TEs; they’re simply untested so far.
Despite his technical inclusion in the table as well, I’m not as interested in playing Alec Pierce for schematic reasons, as over the larger sample we have for him since the start of last season, he hasn’t seen even a 5% higher TPRR against Cover 3, and he hasn’t had nearly the success of Warren against it this year. I’m sticking to Jones and Warren.
Recommended Prop: Tyler Warren over 57.5 receiving yards (FanDuel, -114, risk 1u)
Michael Carter vs. the Titans’ Man/Gap-Vulnerable Defense
$4,000 (RB36), 3% Projected Ownership
Michael Carter and Emari Demercado are both cheap and offer upside based on the role uncertainty stemming from Trey Benson’s injury. In 2023, Demercado was thrust into the lead role from Weeks 6-8, but suffered a toe injury that was likely part of what prompted the team to acquire Carter that season (having otherwise been forced to give carries to names like Damien Williams, Keaontay Ingram, and Tony Jones).
Demercado rejoined the lineup in Week 12, the same week Carter debuted with the Cardinals. From that point on, it was Carter who spelled James Conner on 1st and 2nd downs (19.1% snap share and 20 carries to Demercado’s 2), and Demercado who primarily handled 3rd downs (52.3% snap share). Carter was also the back to get the only non-Conner carry inside the 5-yard line during this time. Trey Benson took Carter’s place as the gameday active for most of 2024, but then it was Carter who played a bellcow role in Weeks 17-18 of 2024 (to the tune of a 73.3% snap share and 15.3 XFP/G) with Conner and Benson injured and Demercado already on IR.
Given all of this, I feel relatively confident that Carter will be the primary back on early downs this week. And with the Cardinals possessing the 4th-highest implied total on the slate (25.0) as 7.5-point favorites against a Titans defense allowing the 5th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing runners (+3.1), that should be a valuable role, especially relative to Carter’s stone-minimum $4,000 DraftKings salary.
And it’s even a strong schematic matchup. The Cardinals have utilized man/gap concepts on 59.6% of their rush attempts this season, the highest rate in the NFL. That figure stood at 53.3% for Carter in Weeks 17-18 of last year, which would rank 8th-most of 36 qualifying RBs this year. And of course, the Titans are allowing the 4th-most YPC (5.72) and a top-12 success rate (56.6%) on opposing man/gap runs this year, as well as a top-5 figure in adjusted yards before contact per attempt allowed (2.28).
I don’t have much confidence in Carter as a talent. But so long as his projected ownership remains low, the workload and matchup alone are more than strong enough to justify exposure in GPPs. He can get you to uncommon builds and expensive team stacks like the Buccaneers, Lions, and Commanders.
Recommended Props: Michael Carter over 45.5 rushing yards (FanDuel, -114, risk 1u)
Troy Franklin vs. the Eagles’ Play Action-Vulnerable Defense
$4,000 (WR37), 2% Projected Ownership
The Eagles have allowed 8.7 YPA on play-action pass attempts this season (8th-most), compared to just 5.5 YPA on non-play-action attempts (3rd-fewest). The Broncos have utilized play action on 33.1% of their dropbacks (3rd-most).
So this lines up as an especially strong spot for Troy Franklin, who easily leads the Broncos in TPRR (0.43) and FP/RR (0.92) on play action, ranking 3rd-best and 8th-best, respectively, among all WRs. And Franklin’s recent overall role has been much better than his $4,000 price suggests, leading the team in route participation (79.6%), first-read target share (24.6%), and XFP/G (13.9) since Week 2.
And this is made sweeter by the fact that Courtland Sutton is likely to be shadowed by Quinyon Mitchell, after he held Davante Adams and Emeka Egbuka to just a combined 4 catches for 18 yards over the past two weeks. That’s not to say Franklin will have it easy against Cooper DeJean in the slot, but I don’t think it’s going to effect his volume; more than half of Franklin’s play action targets have come on designed screens (so he isn’t really required to separate on his own), and four others came while he was lined up out wide.
In other words, only 2 of Franklin’s 13 play-action targets this year have come while he was lined up in the slot without a designed read, so I feel safe assuming Sean Payton’s creative play design will shield Franklin from any negative effects of this individual matchup. Like Carter, he can make expensive builds work on a slate where there are many I’d like to try.
Quick Hits
I’ll provide some of my better-formed quick-hit thoughts below, but if you’re looking for an even greater volume of information, I’ve pinned my entire notes document to the DFS and Betting channels in our Discord. You can join our Discord and get access to the appropriate channels by following the instructions here. I also drop all of the recommended bets above in Discord the night before this article publishes, to ensure subscribers get the best lines possible.
The Cowboys are allowing the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs (+7.2). Breece Hall gets to operate without the threat of Braelon Allen at the goal line this week. Hall leads all RBs in explosive run rate this season (11.5%), while this defense has been gashed by opposing explosive runs at the 9th-highest rate. The Cowboys have also allowed the 5th-highest success rate to opposing zone concepts, which have accounted for 82.7% of Hall’s attempts this year (most in the NFL).
The Jets are a slot and TE funnel, having allowed the 7th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to the slot (+2.6) and the 5th-most to opposing TEs (+4.2), but the 8th-fewest to opposing outside WRs. That’s in part due to the presence of Sauce Gardner, who we’re projecting to shadow George Pickens this week. That’s not to say this matchup is impossible for Pickens to overcome, as Gardner did allow 4 catches for 57 yards and a TD to the combination of Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka in Week 3. And the Cowboys will try to move Pickens around more than usual this week, so I wouldn’t overthink him in this spot. But regardless, this is all very good for Jake Ferguson, who leads the team with a 24.7% target share since CeeDee Lamb was injured, easily leads all TEs with 16.2 XFP/G, and is still far too cheap at just $4,800.
Though they appear at the top of this article in the Key Ceiling Matchups section, I don’t have any particular conviction in either Wan’Dale Robinson or Theo Johnson for schematic reasons this week. The Saints do rank top-4 in Cover 3 usage, but have deployed it less than 38% of the time in 3 of their 4 games; the season-long figure is being inflated by a single game (Week 3 against the Seahawks).
In fact, I’d have a little more interest in Darius Slayton at his price ($4,300), as the Saints have been a perimeter funnel this year, having allowed the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing outside WRs (+11.1) but the 2nd-fewest to the slot (-5.3). Slayton averaged 11.0 targets per game and 89.5 receiving YPG in two games Malik Nabers missed last season. Though I much prefer Michael Carter and Troy Franklin as general salary-savers.
The Colts are allowing the 5th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs (+8.6), including the 2nd-most to opposing slots (+4.8). The Colts have also been a top-5 pass funnel this year (+4.6% PROE allowed). The secondary is in such shambles that Xavien Howard just retired mid-season. Both Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker are set up well.
66.2% of Ashton Jeanty’s rush attempts have come on zone concepts (9th-most of 43 qualifying RBs), on which he’s averaging 5.31 YPC (6th-best). The Colts’ defense has been much more generous to opposing zone concepts (5.24 YPC allowed, 4th-most) compared to man/gap (3.71 YPC allowed, 10th-fewest).
The Panthers’ defense has deployed Cover 3 at the NFL’s 2nd-highest rate this year (45.7%). Malik Washington leads all Dolphins receivers (excluding the injured Tyreek Hill) with a 0.24 TPRR against Cover 3 this year, a +33% boost. Over his career, he’s averaged a +63% YPRR boost against Cover 3 as well. Washington led the Dolphins in route participation when both Hill and Jaylen Waddle missed time in Week 1, and also leads the team in designed targets (5) this year. I’m not especially convinced by his talent as a 2024 Day 3 pick who didn’t do anything special in college until his fifth season, but you can definitely justify him at $3,900 based on schematic matchup and role. (Although again, I prefer Carter and Franklin).
The Dolphins rank as a top-10 schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing TEs (+2.6). If Ja’Tavion Sanders misses a second consecutive game, we can expect another week of strong utilization for Tommy Tremble, who now averages 7.5 targets and 14.0 FPG in two games Sanders has missed over the past two seasons.
The Dolphins have blitzed at the NFL’s 4th-highest rate this year (39.2%). Tetairoa McMillan’s target share grows from 18.4% when there’s no blitz to 33.3% when blitzed.
Although the Eagles are 3.5-point favorites, this shapes up as a difficult schematic matchup for Saquon Barkley. 68.8% of his rush attempts this season have utilized zone concepts (7th-most), against which the Broncos have surrendered just 3.03 YPC (3rd-fewest) and a 40.0% success rate (9th-worst).
It’s tough to feel confident in the Eagles’ passing game during a week when they’re favored. But if I were to play any Jalen Hurts lineups, I might look to pair him with DeVonta Smith this week rather than A.J. Brown. Both receivers have strong schematic matchups against the Broncos’ man-heavy defense (having averaged +140% and +117% more YPRR against man than against zone this season, respectively), but we’re projecting Brown to catch a shadow from Pat Surtain, who has allowed just 0.18 FP/RR in coverage this year (10th-fewest).
Then again, the Broncos have blitzed 34.4% of the time this year, the 7th-highest rate in the NFL. Jalen Hurts has been abysmal against the blitz this season, his highly accurate throw rate falling from 56.9% without a blitz to just 30.2% when blitzed, and his FP/DB falling from 1.03 to just 0.22. I may just skip the Eagles entirely this week.
The Ravens have allowed the 2nd-most YPC (6.28) and the 2nd-highest success rate (63.0%) to opposing man/gap runs. 58.6% of Woody Marks’ rush attempts (8th-most) have utilized man/gap concepts.
The Ravens are 2.0-point underdogs. Over the past three seasons, Derrick Henry has averaged 22.5 DraftKings FPG in wins, but just 13.2 FPG in losses as the NFL’s most game script-sensitive RB.
The Buccaneers are an underneath funnel, having allowed the 3rd-most receiving YPG on throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (163.3) but the 2nd-fewest on the deep ball (12.8). Additionally, they blitz at the NFL’s 3rd-highest rate (39.4%). These notes in conjunction make me a little nervous about Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the slate’s highest-owned WR, as the Seahawks have allowed pressure on 59.5% of opposing blitzes (2nd-most), Smith-Njigba’s TPRR falls from an absurdly elite 0.45 to “only” 0.24 against the blitz, and Sam Darnold’s aDOT oddly increases from just 6.3 without a blitz to 14.8 against the blitz. I do think you could argue this note either way — perhaps Darnold’s willingness to air it out against the blitz is a good thing for Smith-Njigba’s upside here, regardless of how the Buccaneers have done at shutting down the deep ball against less willing passers — but it does make me want to lean more into game environment bets with Smith-Njigba rather than only playing him naked.
The Bengals have allowed the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs (+7.5) and have been the NFL’s 3rd-most extreme pass funnel this season (+4.9% PROE allowed). Although he’s expensive and on the road, Jared Goff makes for an interesting contrarian play with the slate’s highest implied total (29.5).
The Bengals are an underneath funnel, having allowed the most receiving YPG on throws traveling 10 or fewer yards downfield (171.8) but the 3rd-fewest on the deep ball (13.3). This causes me to favor (in this order) Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs (discussed below), and Sam LaPorta as potential Goff stacking partners, as the Bengals are also allowing the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing TEs (+4.6).
The Bengals are allowing the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs (+7.6), including the 2nd-most through the air (+5.6). They’ve been especially burned by opposing screens, allowing the most receiving YPG (42.5) and the 3rd-most YAC/R (11.5) on such plays. Jahmyr Gibbs is commanding 59% of the Lions’ backfield XFP — a major improvement from the near-perfect 50/50 split he and David Montgomery were in last season — driven primarily by his usage through the air (5.3 targets per game).
Although the Lions have been a quite single-high-heavy defense this season — having deployed those looks on 64.0% of opposing dropbacks (2nd-most) — I’m not sure how sold I am on using this as a reason to project bounceback ceiling games from either Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins, despite their favorable TPRR splits against those looks (+19% and +71% compared to against two-high this season, respectively). While the Lions will likely play more single-high than either the Vikings (12.9%) or Broncos (34.5%) did, I worry that no team is threatened enough by the Bengals’ run game (generating an abysmal 0.53 adjusted yards before contact per attempt, just half of the next-closest team) to commit a defender to the box rather than drop back an extra safety. Against this team in Week 4, the Broncos played their lowest rate of single-high since Week 8 of 2023. The Lions could easily make a similar adjustment, as most teams have against the Bengals.
The Chargers have allowed the most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs on the ground (+4.2), allowing 57 rushing yards and a TD to Patrick Mahomes, a season-high rushing yardage total to Bo Nix, and 54 yards and a TD to Jaxson Dart last week. Jayden Daniels may not run as much as usual in his first game back from a knee sprain, but what if he does when he’s priced at just $7,000 ($800 cheaper than Week 18 of last year)?
The Chargers have deployed Cover 4 at the NFL’s 2nd-highest rate (24.2%), much like they did last season (21.7%). Deebo Samuel has experienced a +11% boost to his TPRR against quarters since the start of last season, and an even more significant +32% boost in 2025 alone.
However, this may be an even larger boon to Zach Ertz, as his TPRR increases by +42% against quarters since the start of last season. Over the same period, his YPRR increases by +38%. Another reason to upgrade Ertz more than Samuel is that Samuel played significantly more on the outside in Week 4 without Terry McLaurin (53.6% of his routes), compared to just 13.4% of his routes in Weeks 1-3. The Chargers have been significantly tougher against outside WRs (-11.9 schedule-adjusted FPG allowed, 3rd-fewest) compared to against the slot (-1.7) or opposing TEs (-0.3).
The Commanders are a top-3 run funnel by PROE allowed (-3.5%). However, 63% of Omarion Hampton’s rush attempts have utilized man/gap concepts, and the Commanders are allowing the 4th-fewest YPC (2.53) and the 3rd-lowest success rate (31.3%) to opposing man/gap runs.
