A lot (and I mean A LOT) has happened since the initial Super LVII odds dropped in early February. It’s time to check back in to see which teams saw their odds rise and which teams saw their odds fall the most over the last month or so. Most of the top unrestricted free agents have found homes after a flurry of activity since the official start of the 2022 season on March 16. We also saw several blockbuster trades that involved superstars like Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Davante Adams, and Tyreek Hill that changed the NFL landscape. Oh yeah, that Tom Brady fella came out of retirement to give it one more run in the weakened NFC.
The Bills are now alone as the favorites to win the Super Bowl at +650 with the Chiefs falling to +950 after the Hill trade. The major story of the off-season has been the surge of title contenders in the AFC and the conference owns nine of the 14 teams at +2400 odds or shorter. In the NFC, the Buccaneers (+700) and Packers (+1100) are back at the top of the Super Bowl odds with their quarterbacks back in tow, and the reigning Super Bowl champion Rams are also at the top at +1100. Let’s see what teams saw their fortunes change the most through the first part of the off-season.
POST-FREE AGENCY SUPER BOWL LVII ODDS
The odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of March 25.
|Team||SB Odds (3/25)||SB Odds (2/14)||2021 Record (ATS)|
|Buffalo Bills||+650||+700||11-6 (9-6-2)|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+700||+2600||13-4 (9-8)|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+950||+700||12-5 (8-9)|
|Green Bay Packers||+1100||+1300||13-4 (12-5)|
|Los Angeles Rams||+1100||+1200||12-5 (8-9)|
|San Francisco 49ers||+1500||+1500||10-7 (9-8)|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+1500||+2400||9-8 (8-9)|
|Denver Broncos||+1500||+2200||7-10 (8-9)|
|Dallas Cowboys||+1500||+1200||12-5 (13-4)|
|Cleveland Browns||+1800||+2400||8-9 (7-10)|
|Baltimore Ravens||+2100||+2100||8-9 (8-9)|
|Cincinnati Bengals||+2200||+2100||10-7 (10-7)|
|Tennessee Titans||+2400||+2400||12-5 (10-7)|
|Indianapolis Colts||+2400||+2400||9-8 (10-7)|
|Arizona Cardinals||+2500||+2400||11-6 (10-7)|
|New England Patriots||+3600||+2800||10-7 (10-7)|
|Minnesota Vikings||+3600||+3300||8-9 (9-8)|
|Miami Dolphins||+3600||+3600||9-8 (9-7-1)|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+3800||+5500||10-7 (8-9)|
|New Orleans Saints||+4000||+3000||9-8 (9-8)|
|Philadelphia Eagles||+4000||+3300||9-8 (8-8-1)|
|Washington Commanders||+5500||+3300||7-10 (7-9-1)|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||+7000||+7000||9-7-1 (8-9)|
|Seattle Seahawks||+8000||+3300||7-10 (9-8)|
|Chicago Bears||+8000||+7500||6-11 (6-11)|
|New York Giants||+8000||+10000||4-13 (6-11)|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||+8000||+12000||3-14 (5-12)|
|Carolina Panthers||+10000||+3600||5-12 (5-12)|
|New York Jets||+13000||+15000||4-13 (6-11)|
|Detroit Lions||+14000||+10000||3-13-1 (11-6)|
|Atlanta Falcons||+18000||+6000||7-10 (6-10-1)|
|Houston Texans||+22000||+18000||4-13 (8-9)|
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (March 24: +700; Feb 14: +2600)
The NFL had plenty of seismic moves in March but none sent more vibrations throughout the league than Tom Brady’s decision to unretire after just two months of golfing and hanging with his family. The Buccaneers reached as high as +6000 at the Westgate SuperBook, and they were crying foul after his announcement for taking some big Tampa Bay bets just before Brady declared his return. His teammates mostly lined up to go for one more Lombardi Trophy including Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette, C Ryan Jensen, and CB Carlton Davis, and his pal Rob Gronkowski is expected to follow suit in the near future. They did lose some key pieces like OG Alex Cappa (Bengals), OG Ali Marpet (retirement), and S Jordan Whitehead (Jets), but they offset some losses by adding OG Shaq Mason and Russell Gage. The Buccaneers look primed for another Super Bowl run in an awful NFC South and a weakened conference overall.
Denver Broncos (March 24: +1500; Feb 14: +2200)
The Broncos had their sights set on Aaron Rodgers since last summer and it looked like the franchise may be out of luck in their search for their franchise quarterback when it came out on the morning of March 8 that Rodgers would return to the Packers. The tears of Broncos fans barely had time to dry by the time it leaked out later that afternoon that the Broncos had traded for Russell Wilson. The Broncos cycled through 10 starting quarterbacks since Peyton Manning retired after the 2015 season after winning the Super Bowl, and the feeling in Denver was similar to the one that was felt 10 years ago when the franchise landed Peyton in March of 2012. We’ll see if it takes four seasons for Denver to win the Lombardi Trophy like it did with Manning, or if they can do it a little quicker this time around as they’re now tied with the seventh-best odds to win the title.
Cleveland Browns (March 24: +1800; Feb 14: +2400)
The Browns had longer odds to win the Deshaun Watson lottery at +1600 in late February, but they still came away with the most coveted long-term football asset that was available this off-season. Watson, of course, brings significant baggage with him to Cleveland with 22 civil lawsuits still outstanding against him and a potential suspension looming in his future. But, from strictly a football standpoint, Watson clearly raises the ceiling for a Cleveland franchise that’s been stuck in quarterback purgatory ever since they returned to the NFL in 1999. We’ll see if the Browns ultimately rue the day that they decided to get into business with Watson on a fully guaranteed five-year, $230 million contract, but there’s no doubt he gives them a better chance to win Super Bowl LVII if the NFL lets him play this season.
Las Vegas Raiders (March 24: +3800; Feb 14: +5500)
The Raiders have been busy trying to keep up with the rest of their division this off-season, and they made two of the league’s more impactful moves that didn’t involve quarterbacks. The AFC West is home to the league’s best quartet at quarterback and the easiest way to slow down Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Russell Wilson is to get the ball out of their hands quickly. Las Vegas will attempt to do that with one of the league’s most formidable pass-rushing duos after they handed Chandler Jones a three-year deal with $34 million guaranteed. Jones has registered double-digit sacks in each of the last six seasons when he’s played more than five games, and he’ll pair with PFF’s second-highest graded EDGE defender from last season in Maxx Crosby. The Raiders will also try to keep pace with those quarterbacks by trotting out one of the league’s best trios at receiver after they stunned the league by acquiring Davante Adams. The Raiders now need to figure out how they’re going to protect Carr, but they’re going to be a formidable matchup for anybody in the AFC this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars (March 24: +8000; Feb 14: +12000)
The Jaguars spent money like a drunken sailor this off-season and the infusion of new talent shot them up the odds board. They inked Christian Kirk ($37 million guaranteed), OG Brandon Scherff ($30 million), LB Foyesade Oluokun ($28 million), DT Folorunso Fatukasi ($20 million), CB Darious Williams ($18 million), Zay Jones ($14 million), and Evan Engram ($8.3 million) to eat up most of their cap space heading into 2022. Time will tell if the Jaguars spent their money wisely and if the pieces will fit (I highly doubt it), but this roster is certainly better than the one the Jaguars ended last season with. Even with the roster upgrades, they’re still longshots to win the Lombardi Trophy with the 24th-best odds.
New England Patriots (March 24: +3600; Feb 14: +2800)
The Patriots have been watching their pennies this off-season after they spent an NFL record $163 million in guaranteed money in unrestricted free agency in 2021. Even with all of their spending, they failed to add a truly dynamic receiving weapon despite spending big money on Nelson Agholor ($16 million guaranteed), Kendrick Bourne ($5.3 million), Hunter Henry ($25 million), and Jonnu Smith ($31.3 million). New England has been mostly shedding talent this off-season to make up for last year’s spending spree. They let top CB J.C. Jackson walk to the Chargers and they gave away OG Shaq Mason to the Buccaneers in what seemed like some sort of payback for Tom Brady’s 20 years of service to the franchise. It doesn’t help that the rest of the AFC East and most of the conference has been busy improving so it’s not surprising to see the Patriots backsliding in the odds.
New Orleans Saints (March 24: +4000; Feb 14: +3000)
The Saints’ Super Bowl odds took a dip after they failed to upgrade at quarterback over Jameis Winston, and they also took a hit with Tom Brady returning to the Buccaneers, which hurt their chances of being the class of a weak NFC South. New Orleans, a franchise perpetually in salary-cap hell, also saw LT Terron Armstead (Dolphins) and S Marcus Williams (Ravens) land massive contracts elsewhere. The Saints failed in their push to trade for Deshaun Watson but they did open up some cap space in the process, and they’ll look to use some of that freed-up money to make some smaller moves to bolster their roster for next season. GM Mickey Loomis had the chance to do a bit of a roster reset this off-season, but they’re still pushing forward in a weak NFC with Winston at quarterback and a still-loaded defense.
Washington Commanders (March 24: +5500; Feb 14: +3300)
Washington officially changed their name and logo from the Football Team to the Commanders, but they’re still operating as the same old Washington franchise. They missed out on a big-time quarterback last off-season when they settled for veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, who played just 16 snaps before suffering a season-ending hip injury. The Commanders over-reacted to last year’s mistake by being uber-aggressive for a quarterback this off-season when they would’ve been much better served to let the quarterback dominoes fall to them. The Commanders panic traded for Carson Wentz shortly after Aaron Rodgers announced he was staying in Green Bay and after the Broncos acquired Russell Wilson. Wentz’s last two teams couldn’t wait to get rid of him the last two years, and it’s looking more unlikely that he’ll reach his 2017 All-Pro status with every passing season. The books agree with Washington’s odds plummeting since the Wentz trade.
Carolina Panthers (March 24: +10000; Feb 14: +3600)
Carolina’s odds were artificially inflated just in case they landed a big-time quarterback, which hasn’t happened through the first 10 days of the new league year. They missed out on Deshaun Watson and it’s difficult to see their odds significantly rising with no real high-end options remaining at the position, but crazier things have happened so far this off-season. GM Scott Fitterer added interior offensive linemen Austin Corbett and Bradley Bozeman to improve their dreadful O-line, but they could be stuck protecting a rookie signal-caller from one of the weaker quarterback classes in recent history.
Atlanta Falcons (March 24: +18000; Feb 14: +6000)
Matt Ryan and HC Arthur Smith somehow snuck out seven victories in their first and only season together, despite finishing in the bottom seven in both major offensive and defensive categories and ranking 30th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. The Falcons clearly overperformed in the win department in 2021 and they’ve decided to tear it all down after a rough two weeks in March. They lost one of their few star players, Calvin Ridley, to a season-long suspension for gambling on the NFL before whiffing in their pursuit of the disgraced Deshaun Watson. With the roster needing a hard reset, they traded away the franchise’s most distinguished quarterback to the Colts for a third-round pick. The Falcons were the biggest faller in Super Bowl odds since mid-February, and they’re sitting ahead of only the Texans entering the draft. It’s going to be a long season in Atlanta.
The biggest bet I placed at the conclusion of the Super Bowl LVI was a one-unit bet on the Los Angeles Chargers at +2500, and they’ve seen their odds quickly shrink to +1500. The Chargers obviously had a maddening end to the regular season, which kept them out of the postseason, but they had the third-most cap space in mid-February to make the necessary improvements to their defense. They landed pass rusher Khalil Mack, top CB J.C. Jackson, and DT Sebastian Joseph-Day to immediately upgrade their defense, and they even upgraded on offense by signing Gerald Everett and retaining Mike Williams. The Chargers have an absolute gauntlet to navigate in the AFC West and in the conference, but there’s no doubt they’re better positioned to compete for a title than they were at the end of last season.
I wagered .7 units on the Seattle Seahawks at +4000 in mid-February and that money has been lit on fire with the Seahawks falling to +8000 after trading Russell Wilson to the Broncos. I thought it was notable that the NFL’s oldest head coach, Pete Carroll, was sticking around for the 2022 season and that he wouldn’t want to oversee a rebuild. I couldn’t have been more wrong. The Allen family and GM John Schneider decided to put the future of the franchise in the hands of their 70-year-old coach rather than their 33-year-old quarterback. I lost this bet but at least I’m not a Seahawks fan who will have to watch their team stink while their former quarterback thrives in Denver.
I placed .3 units on the Pittsburgh Steelers at +7000 in mid-February and they were one of six teams that had the same odds 10 days into the new league year. My hope was that the Steelers could make a splashy move at quarterback, but they elected to take a safer route by signing Mitchell Trubisky to a team-friendly contract to see if they can get the most out of the 2017 second overall pick. I’ve liked Pittsburgh’s off-season moves overall to bring in OG James Daniels, C Mason Cole, LB Myles Jack, and CB Levi Wallace. Even with a solid off-season showing so far, they’re highly unlikely to be serious Super Bowl contenders in a loaded AFC unless Trubisky has a Ryan Tannehill type of career turnaround.