The NFL off-season continues to speed by after a hectic start to the 2022 league year, which saw a number of marquee players switch teams in free agency and through blockbuster trades. I recently broke down the shifting Super Bowl LVII odds following the first 10 days of the new league year. We’re about a month away from the NFL Draft but, with most of the major free agency moves (likely) out of the way, season win totals for 31 teams are starting to trickle out across a number of sportsbooks. The Browns are the lone exception with Deshaun Watson’s status for the 2022 season very much still up in the air.
The Bills own the league’s best odds to win the Lombardi Trophy, and they’re pacing the 10 teams with double-digit win totals at 11.5 victories (-135 to the over). With Tom Brady back in the mix, the Buccaneers hold the slight advantage to win the most games in the NFC with a win total sitting at 11.5 (-110). The books have pegged the Texans as the league’s worst team for the second straight off-season with a 4.5 (-105) win total. The Falcons are sporting the worst win total in the NFC at 5 victories (-110) after losing Matt Ryan (Colts) and Calvin Ridley (suspension) this off-season.
Brian Daboll and the Giants at 7.5 wins (-110) and Russell Wilson and the Broncos at 10 wins (-125) could have three-win turnarounds compared to their final records from last season. The Packers at 11 wins (-125), the Titans at 9.5 wins (-110), and the Cardinals at 9 wins (-110) are each facing potential two-win drop-offs compared to their final records from 2022. The lines in this article are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of March 29 and teams are listed in descending order of their win totals.
2022 Win Totals
|Team||Win Total (O/U)||2021 Record (ATS)|
|Buffalo Bills||11.5 (-135/+115)||11-6 (9-6-2)|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||11.5 (-110/-110)||13-4 (9-8)|
|Green Bay Packers||11 (-125/+105)||13-4 (12-5)|
|Kansas City Chiefs||11 (+125/-145)||12-5 (8-9)|
|Los Angeles Rams||10.5 (-115/-105)||12-5 (8-9)|
|Dallas Cowboys||10.5 (-105/-115)||12-5 (13-4)|
|Denver Broncos||10 (-125/+105)||7-10 (8-9)|
|Los Angeles Chargers||10 (-120/+100)||9-8 (8-9)|
|San Francisco 49ers||10 (-115/-105)||10-7 (9-8)|
|Cincinnati Bengals||10 (+110/-130)||10-7 (10-7)|
|Cleveland Browns||OFF (Watson situation)||8-9 (7-10)|
|Baltimore Ravens||9.5 (-125/+105)||8-9 (8-9)|
|Tennessee Titans||9.5 (-110/-110)||12-5 (10-7)|
|Indianapolis Colts||9.5 (-110/-110)||9-8 (10-7)|
|Arizona Cardinals||9 (-110/-110)||11-6 (10-7)|
|Minnesota Vikings||9 (-110/-110)||8-9 (9-8)|
|Miami Dolphins||9 (-110/-110)||9-8 (9-7-1)|
|New England Patriots||8.5 (-125/+105)||10-7 (10-7)|
|Las Vegas Raiders||8.5 (-110/-110)||10-7 (8-9)|
|Philadelphia Eagles||8.5 (+100/-120)||9-8 (8-8-1)|
|New Orleans Saints||7.5 (-140/+120)||9-8 (9-8)|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||7.5 (-120/+100)||9-7-1 (8-9)|
|Washington Commanders||7.5 (+100/-120)||7-10 (7-9-1)|
|New York Giants||7.5 (-110/-110)||4-13 (6-11)|
|Chicago Bears||7 (+110/-130)||6-11 (6-11)|
|Seattle Seahawks||6.5 (+105/-125)||7-10 (9-8)|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||6.5 (+100/-120)||3-14 (5-12)|
|Detroit Lions||6 (-115/-105)||3-13-1 (11-6)|
|Carolina Panthers||6 (-110/-110)||5-12 (5-12)|
|New York Jets||5.5 (-105/-115)||4-13 (6-11)|
|Atlanta Falcons||5 (-110/-110)||7-10 (6-10-1)|
|Houston Texans||4.5 (-105/-115)||4-13 (8-9)|
Bets I’m Considering
Kansas City Chiefs Under 11 Wins (-145, DraftKings)
The Chiefs looked on their way to another potential Lombardi Trophy at halftime of the AFC Championship Game before they mustered just three points in their final eight possessions against the Bengals. They’re now busy recalibrating their roster this off-season as they chose to take a short-term roster hit by trading Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins in order to improve their future rosters by gaining draft picks and cap flexibility — Kansas City has two picks in each of the first three rounds in this year’s draft. The Chiefs ultimately made the right decision to start reshaping their roster for future Super Bowl runs with Patrick Mahomes over the next decade, but they could pay the price over the next season or two, especially with the rest of the AFC West drastically improving. The Chiefs have a whopping 14 games against teams lined at eight or more wins, and nine of those contests come against teams lined at 10 or more wins. BRUTAL. Ultimately, I hate to lay -145 to bet against Mahomes and Andy Reid at the lowest win total they’ve faced in the last three years.
Baltimore Ravens Over 9.5 Wins (-125, DraftKings)
I’m bullish on the Ravens bouncing back this season after they had a season from hell with injuries all across their roster. The Ravens cycled through 75 players, 45 different starters, and they finished with a league-high 19 players on injured reserve. Baltimore kept their season afloat through 11 games with an 8-3 record, but the worm turned when Lamar Jackson failed to hit an open Mark Andrews for a game-winning two-point play against the Steelers in Week 13. Lamar injured his ankle early the next week and the Ravens wouldn’t win another game the rest of the way with Jackson missing the rest of the season. Baltimore finished last in the AFC North for the first time since 2007, but the result will benefit them this year with road matchups against the Jaguars and Giants — they also get the Broncos at home by finishing last. The NFL has yet to release the overall schedule — it came out after the draft in 2021 — but they could potentially benefit from playing against Jacoby Brissett instead of Deshaun Watson if they would meet during a time when Watson would be suspended. The Ravens are well-positioned to get back to being one of the AFC’s top contenders, and I’m grabbing them over 9.5 wins (-125) and to win the AFC North (+225) at DraftKings.
Indianapolis Colts Over 9.5 Wins (-110, DraftKings)
The Colts were well on their way to cruising over their season win total last season before they nosedived as huge favorites in their final two games in 2021. Carson Wentz threw for 148 yards and he averaged just 5.5 YPA in a Week 17 loss to the Raiders as 8.5-point home favorites. The Colts then scored just 11 points in a stunning 15-point loss to the Jaguars as 14.5-point road favorites in the season finale, which knocked them out of the postseason. The Colts wisely swapped out Wentz for a much more capable quarterback in Matt Ryan, who helped the Falcons suck out seven wins with a miserable roster last season. The Colts benefit from playing both the Jaguars and Texans twice and their extra games will come against three teams potentially moving in the wrong direction (vs. Pit, @NE, @Min). Indianapolis added some much-needed pass-rushing help in Yannick Ngakoue, but they still have some unfinished work along their offensive line and in their secondary that has me hesitant to bet the over just yet.
Chicago Bears Under 7 Wins (-125, BetRivers)
The Bears are shaping up to have one of the league’s worst rosters after trading Khalil Mack and letting Allen Robinson and OG James Daniels walk in free agency this off-season. They failed to make any significant off-season moves to improve their roster and they currently don’t have a first-round pick after trading for Justin Fields during the 2021 NFL Draft. The Bears do have seven games against teams lined below eight wins (Det x2, vs. Was, @NYG, @NYJ, vs. Hou, @Atl) so they have a path to some cheap wins. I’m also hopeful that Justin Fields will have a much better second season moving from the clueless Matt Nagy to an up-and-coming offensive coordinator in Luke Getsy. This line has nose-dived from 7.5 to 7 wins with decent juice on the under so the value has quickly been taken out of this bet.
Seattle Seahawks Under 6.5 Wins (-125, DraftKings)
The Seahawks are heading into a season without Bobby Wagner and Russell Wilson for the first time since 2011. Wilson-led teams had reached at least nine wins in each of his first nine seasons, but that run came to an end last season when he missed the first four games of his professional career. The books are expecting a major dropoff this year with this roster declining and with Drew Lock set to take over at quarterback. The Seahawks are also candidates to trade both D.K. Metcalf and/or Tyler Lockett before the trade deadline this season. Metcalf is likely to command one of the next massive contracts at WR next off-season, and Lockett would be moved if the Seahawks go all-in on a rebuild. I’m going to stay away from betting the under for now since I can’t get a great read on what this franchise is trying to do — it seems like GM John Schneider doesn’t know either. They could also still be in the mix for Baker Mayfield, especially if the Browns are forced to attach a draft pick, and he’d be a significant upgrade over Lock.
New York Jets Over 5.5 Wins (+111, BetRivers)
The Jets missed the playoffs for the 11th straight season in 2021, and they have the NFL’s longest active playoff drought after the Browns and Buccaneers each snapped their droughts in 2020. New York also owns just one winning season in that span and they’ve finished in last place in the AFC East in five of the last six seasons. New York’s playoff drought is unlikely to end this season in an extremely difficult AFC, but they need to win just six games to clear the league’s third-worst win total. Zach Wilson had a mostly forgettable rookie campaign, but the Jets turned a small corner when Wilson returned to the lineup starting in Week 12 after he watched how Mike White and Joe Flacco handled the job. The Jets upgraded their shaky secondary this off-season by signing S Jordan Whitehead and CB D.J. Reed, and they added OG Laken Tomlinson and TEs C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin to improve their run game. The Jets also have four selections inside the first 38 picks in this year’s draft, including picks No. 4 and 10, so this lagging roster will get another infusion of talent before camp starts. New York has four games against teams lined at seven wins or worse (vs. Chi, vs. Det, vs. Jax, @Sea), but I don’t have enough conviction in Wilson just yet to get to the window.
Atlanta Falcons Under 5.5 Wins (-115, PointsBet)
I recently wrote about the disintegrating Falcons’ roster in my Post-Free Agency Super LVII odds article and it applies here as well:
“Matt Ryan and HC Arthur Smith somehow snuck out seven victories in their first and only season together, despite finishing in the bottom seven in both major offensive and defensive categories and ranking 30th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. The Falcons clearly overperformed in the win department in 2021 and they’ve decided to tear it all down after a rough two weeks in March. They lost one of their few star players, Calvin Ridley, to a season-long suspension for gambling on the NFL before whiffing in their pursuit of the disgraced Deshaun Watson. With the roster needing a hard reset, they traded away the franchise’s most distinguished quarterback to the Colts for a third-round pick.”
Each of Atlanta’s seven wins came in one-score games last season and they finished 7-2 overall in those contests. Atlanta’s roster is heading in the wrong direction and it could be the worst in the league, and they’re likely to regress in those tight contests going from Ryan to Marcus Mariota. They do have two matchups against each of the Panthers and Saints and an extra game against the Bears, but the NFC South drew tough matchups against the NFC West and the AFC North. I’ve bet two successful unders on the Falcons in each of the last two seasons, and I’m going back to the well in what’s going to be a long season in Atlanta.
Brolley’s Best Bets
Atlanta Falcons under 5.5 wins (-115, PointsBet). Risk two units to win 1.74 units.
Baltimore Ravens over 9.5 wins (-125, DraftKings). Risk two units to win 1.6 units.
Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC North (+225, DraftKings). Risk one unit to win 2.25 units.