My power ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season.
I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant. I hope you find these ratings useful and good luck with your wagers!
Example: My top-rated team, the Buccaneers (7), would be 15.5-point favorites on a neutral field over my worst-rated team, the Texans (-8.5). Using a typical three-point adjustment for home-field advantage, the Rams would be 18.5-point favorites over the Texans at home and 12.5-point favorites over the Texans on the road.
|Rank||Team||Power Rating||2021 Record (ATS)||Ratings Change||Super Bowl LVI Odds|
|1.||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||7||6-2 (3-5)||—||+550|
|2.||Los Angeles Rams||7||7-2 (4-5)||-.5||+800|
|3.||Green Bay Packers||6.5||7-2 (8-1)||—||+1100|
|4.||Arizona Cardinals||6.5||8-1 (7-2)||+.5||+1000|
|5.||Dallas Cowboys||6||6-2 (7-1)||-.5||+1200|
|6.||Buffalo Bills||6||5-3 (4-3-1)||-1||+600|
|7.||Baltimore Ravens||5||6-2 (3-5)||—||+1200|
|8.||Tennessee Titans||4||7-2 (7-2)||+1||+1000|
|9.||Los Angeles Chargers||3||5-3 (5-3)||—||+2000|
|10.||Seattle Seahawks||3||3-5 (5-3)||—||+6000|
|11.||Kansas City Chiefs||2.5||5-4 (2-7)||—||+1200|
|12.||Cleveland Browns||2.5||5-4 (5-4)||+.5||+2800|
|13.||Indianapolis Colts||2||4-5 (6-3)||+.5||+6000|
|14.||New Orleans Saints||2||5-3 (4-4)||—||+5000|
|15.||New England Patriots||2||5-4 (5-4)||+.5||+3500|
|16.||Las Vegas Raiders||1.5||5-3 (4-4)||—||+6000|
|17.||Cincinnati Bengals||1||5-4 (4-5)||-.5||+6500|
|18.||San Francisco 49ers||1||3-5 (2-6)||-1||+10000|
|19.||Pittsburgh Steelers||1||5-3 (3-5)||—||+4500|
|20.||Minnesota Vikings||.5||3-5 (4-4)||—||+13000|
|21.||Denver Broncos||0||5-4 (5-4)||+.5||+8000|
|22.||Philadelphia Eagles||-.5||3-6 (4-5)||—||+20000|
|23.||Atlanta Falcons||-1||4-4 (4-4)||+.5||+25000|
|24.||New York Giants||-1.5||3-6 (5-4)||+1||+50000|
|25.||Carolina Panthers||-2||4-5 (4-5)||-.5||+50000|
|26.||Chicago Bears||-2||3-6 (4-5)||—||+50000|
|28.||Miami Dolphins||-3||2-7 (3-5-1)||—||+50000|
|29.||Jacksonville Jaguars||-4.5||2-6 (3-5)||+.5||+50000|
|30.||New York Jets||-5.5||2-6 (2-6)||-.5||+100000|
|31.||Detroit Lions||-5.5||0-8 (4-4)||—||+100000|
|32.||Houston Texans||-8.5||1-8 (3-6)||—||+100000|
Week 10 Risers
Teams who improved from the last Power Ratings update on Nov. 3.
Arizona Cardinals (6 to 6.5) — The Cardinals saw the spread move seven points (-3 to +4) against them over the course of last week with Kyler Murray (ankle) and DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring) out of the lineup, and they still grabbed the decisive 14-point victory to all but end San Francisco’s hopes in the NFC West. They lost Chase Edmonds to a high-ankle injury in Week 9, but James Conner stepped up and had the game of his life with 21/96/2 rushing and 5/77/1 receiving.
Tennessee Titans (3 to 4) — The Titans somewhat suddenly have a new identity as a defensive team entering the second half of the season after losing Derrick Henry (foot, IR) for the immediate future. They’ve reeled off five straight outright wins and covers after holding the Rams to 16 points in their first game without Henry. Kevin Byard had a pick-six and Jeffery Simmons accounted for three of their five sacks of Matthew Stafford. The offense is still a work in progress after averaging an ugly 3.5 yards per play for 194 total yards in the victory.
Cleveland Browns (2 to 2.5) — The Browns freed themselves from Odell Beckham last week, and the move paid immediate dividends with their best result of the season in a decisive 41-17 victory over the Bengals as two-point road underdogs. The Browns won the turnover battle 3-0 against Cincinnati and they averaged 7.8 yards per play in the dominant win.
Indianapolis Colts (1.5 to 2) — The Colts quietly have one of the league’s best offenses over the last month with 30+ points scored in four straight games (34.3 PPG) after scoring touchdowns on six of their first seven drives against the Jets last week. They averaged a healthy 8.7 yards per play on their way to a dominant 45-30 victory over the Jets. With Derrick Henry (foot, IR) going down, Jonathan Taylor has a path to being the RB1 the rest of the season after racking up 19/172/2 rushing and 2/28 receiving on a 69% snap share.
New England Patriots (1.5 to 2) — The Patriots are within a half-game of the Bills in the AFC East thanks to their three-game outright and ATS win streak. Bill Belichick’s defense continued to own Sam Darnold, limiting the Panthers’ QB to just 5.2 YPA while intercepting him three times, including J.C. Jackson’s pick-six to put the game away.
Denver Broncos (-.5 to 0) — The Broncos held the ball for 41 minutes against the Cowboys thanks to a dominant rushing attack, with Javonte Williams (17/111 rushing) and Melvin Gordon (21/80/1) combining for 38 carries and 191 yards. The Broncos kept a potent Cowboys offense out of the end zone for 55 minutes last week and they limited Dak Prescott to season-lows in completion percentage (48.7%) and YPA (5.8).
Atlanta Falcons (-1.5 to -1) — The Falcons finished with just 25/34 rushing for an abysmal 1.4 YPC against the Saints, but Matt Ryan and Cordarrelle Patterson carried this offense to a victory against a stingy New Orleans defense. Ryan completed 23/30 passes for 343 yards (11.4 YPA) and two touchdowns while Patterson caught all six of his targets for 126 yards. Atlanta has played in six straight one-score games after getting blown out by the Buccaneers and Eagles to open the season.
New York Giants (-2.5 to -1.5) — New York’s defense has turned a corner since getting smashed 38-11 by the Rams in Week 6. They’ve held the Panthers (3 points), Chiefs (20), and Raiders (16) to 39 combined points in three straight covers in Weeks 7-9. Their offense will look as complete as it has all season long the next time we see them coming out of their Week 10 bye.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-5 to -4.5) — The Jaguars knocked off the Bills as 16-point home underdogs, which is the biggest upset of the season. They forced more turnovers last week against the Bills (3) than they did in their first seven games of the season (2). Jacksonville’s offense averaged just 3.8 yards per play against the Bills, and they’ve scored a combined 16 points in their first two games out of their bye.
Week 10 Fallers
Teams who worsened from the last Power Ratings update on Nov. 3.
Los Angeles Rams (7.5 to 7) — The Rams looked completely unprepared in a humbling 28-16 loss to the Titans as 7.5-point home favorites. They committed a season-high 12 penalties for 115 yards, and Matthew Stafford absorbed a season-high five sacks and he threw two INTs that set up 14 easy points for the Titans.
Buffalo Bills (7 to 6) — The Bills managed just 4.6 yards per play, 301 total yards, and nine points against the lowly Jaguars last week. Josh Allen had 54 dropbacks out of 65 plays, and they attempted just nine RB carries against Jacksonville despite never trailing by more than a field goal in Week 9.
Dallas Cowboys (6.5 to 6) — The Cowboys were the last team to drop a game against the spread in their Week 9 loss to the Broncos. Dak Prescott played like a quarterback who hadn’t seen much action in the last three weeks because of a nagging calf injury. He completed just 48.7% of his passes while averaging 5.8 YPA, which were well below his previous season-lows of 63.6% (Week 4) and 7.1 YPA (Week 2).
San Francisco 49ers (2 to 1) — The 49ers have dropped five of their last six games ATS and they’ve yet to cover a spread at home this season. The 49ers saw the spread move seven points (+3 to -4) in their favor over the course of last week with Kyler Murray (ankle) and DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring) out of the lineup, and they still lost by 14 points to all but end their hopes in the NFC West.
Cincinnati Bengals (1.5 to 1) — The air has quickly come out of the balloon for the Bengals after their 24-point victory over the Ravens in Week 7. They lost to the Jets as 11.5-point favorites in Week 8 before dropping a 41-16 decision to the rival Browns as two-point home favorites. They have a well-timed bye this week as they try to chase down their first playoff berth since 2015.
Carolina Panthers (-1 to -2) — Sam Darnold hasn’t thrown for a touchdown in three straight games and he has just two TD passes in his last five games, and his wide receivers aren’t happy about it. It could even get worse moving forward with his offensive line falling apart. The Panthers lost C Matt Paradis to a torn ACL and LT Cam Erving landed on the IR with a calf injury this week.
New York Jets (-5 to -5.5) — The Jets aren’t allowed to have nice things. Backup QB Mike White generated buzz for the sputtering franchise with a comeback victory over the Bengals in Week 8, but he picked up a forearm injury after an impressive early scoring drive against the Colts. New York’s defense got ravaged for 45 points and 532 yards in their defeat, and they suffered an even bigger loss with S Marcus Maye going down for the year with an Achilles injury.