Paul Kelly's Week 1 Props

I’ve been playing fantasy football since 1987 and while I absolutely love the challenge of drafting, managing rosters and putting together lineups every week, betting individual player props has rapidly become my favorite way to cash in on my fantasy knowledge. Looking to give myself an edge over the sports books, a couple of years ago I started comparing each of John Hansen’s player projections to the player props being offered by the books. I looked for the largest discrepancies between John’s numbers and the books’ numbers to identify betting opportunities. I’ve developed a good feel and a baseline for what constitutes a “significant” discrepancy between the projections and the props and I’ve been betting accordingly – shopping the various books for the most favorable odds of course.

Here’s a look at the player prop discrepancies I like most for Week One followed by a list of all of the significant discrepancies for the week.

DeAndre Hopkins @ TEN

31.5 receiving yards is an unusually large discrepancy. The Fantasy Points team is smelling a big 110-yard game for Hopkins and I’m inclined to go along for the ride and all he has to do is hit 79 yards to win this bet. I’d also consider taking Hopkins over 6.5 catches in this one.

Javonte Williams @ NYG

Clearly the guys here on the site are expecting a larger role for Williams than the bookmakers are. The rushing yards and rushing attempt discrepancies are the largest on the board this week. Both 7 carries and 36 rushing yards seem very doable. If I’m only picking one of these, I’m going with the carries.

A.J. Dillon @ NO

The Packers are favored to beat the Saints by 3.5 points which should keep the running game in play for the Packers for all four quarters. We know they’re not inclined to overwork Aaron Jones so I can easily see Dillon carrying more than 6 times and gaining more than 27 yards.

Ryan Tannehill vs. ARI

Our projections on the site show Tannehill throwing for 290 yards on 37 attempts. Both numbers are well above the props being offered at BETMGM. The Cardinals pass defense is a mess and Vegas expects this to be a higher scoring game as well as a close game which should make it very doable for Tannehill to go over the numbers.

Marquise Brown @ LV

We got burned a few times by Brown early last season but he started coming through regularly late in the year. The Ravens backfield is a disaster this week so Lamar could throw a little more than usual and 46 yards doesn’t seem like a lot to ask from Brown who is projected for 66 yards here on the site.

Kareem Hunt @ KC

The Browns are road dogs this week and Hunt is their back of choice on passing downs and when playing from behind. Game script should be in his favor and the Chiefs give up fantasy points through the air to opposing backs. Our projection has him catching balls for 34 yards which is more than double the prop being offered at BETMGM.

Jonnu Smith vs. MIA

Smith was signed to a huge deal this offseason to be a focal point of the Pats passing game. Mac Jones gets the start at QB and a TE can be a young QBs best friend. We have Smith projected to grab 4 balls in his debut game, easily topping this prop, and I think he’ll do even more than that.

JAKOBI MEYERS vs. MIA

Meyers seems to be the clear favorite to lead New England’s WR group in targets each week and he won’t need many of them to go over this low catch total prop. My guess is we won’t be seeing many more 3.5 catch total props for Meyers moving forward so I’m hopping on this one now.

Here’s the full list of the “significant” discrepancies I found for Week One. Note that props and odds can change fairly quickly, especially on a Sunday morning so it’s important to check the various books for the best numbers/odds before placing your bet. Happy wagering!