Last Week’s ATS Record: 0-1
Best Bets ATS Record (Season): 10-8
Totals Record: 3-3
Since Week 9 was such a sh!tshow, I’m going to be spending more time looking at game picks and I’m going to go in on a lot of games this week. Why? Because the NFL’s been incredibly unpredictable lately, so it’s probably going to be more predictable soon.
Baltimore Ravens (-8) at Miami Dolphins — If you read Tom Brolley’s Best Bets, as you should, you got this when it was 6.5 points three days ago. I’ll still go in at -8. It’s NFL football so you never know, but all signs point to a Ravens comfortable win in part because all signs point to Jacoby Brissett getting the start for the Dolphins. Lamar Jackson and Hollywood Brown are Florida guys, and the last time they played down in South Beach they ripped them with 5 TDs, and two of them by the rookie Brown. Miami has too many holes on defense and little offensive firepower to hang with the Ravens.
Last week: 7-3
Player Props Record: 74-66
- Jonathan Taylor OVER 90.5 rushing yards (-114 FD)
- Mike Williams OVER 61.5 receiving yards (-114 FD)
- Ricky Seals-Jones OVER 30.5 receiving yards (-120 DK)
- Dawson Knox OVER 36.5 receiving yards (-110 DK)
- JD McKissic OVER 30.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)
- Hunter Henry OVER 27.5 receiving yards (-120 DK)
- Noah Fant OVER 35.5 receiving yards (-110 DK)
- Aaron Jones OVER 26.5 receiving yards (-110 DK)
- Brandon Aiyuk OVER 48.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)
- Marvin Jones OVER 45.5 receiving yards (-114 FD)
- Patrick Mahomes UNDER 288.5 passing yards (-115 BETMGM)
- Kirk Cousins UNDER 268.5 passing yards (-115 BETMGM)
- JD McKissic OVER 4.5 receptions (-115 DK)
- Jamal Agnew OVER 3.5 receptions (-165 DK)
Mike Gesicki OVER 53.5 receiving yards (-115 DK) — I like the Ravens offense to do serious damage, so (most likely) Jacoby Brissett should have to throw it 40+ times. Gesick’s numbers with Brissett have been underwhelming, but he does have a 10-catch game with him this year, and Gesicki is now averaging 8 targets, 5.8 receptions, and 74.3 yards per game in the four games that DeVante Parker has missed this season. Per SIS, the Ravens give up the eight-most FP per target, and TEs are seeing the second-highest number of targets per game against them. This could be a blowup spot.
Mike Gesicki OVER 4.5 receptions (-110 DK) — I like the receiving yards prop slightly more than this one.
Marquise Brown OVER 61.5 receiving yards (-110 DK) — This one was listed at 56.5 receiving yards in Tom Brolley’s Best Bets article, which is why you should check that first for the best odds early in the week. But I’ll still take this one, given the location and the extra juice he and Lamar will have back in their home state of Florida. Both guys grew up relatively close to Miami.