My power ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season.
I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks for the week, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant. I’m currently baking in a one and a half to two-point advantage for home teams right now. I hope you find these ratings useful and good luck with your wagers!
| Rank | Team | Power Rating | Record (ATS) | Ratings Change | Super Bowl LV Odds |
| 1. | Kansas City Chiefs | 9 | 6-1 (5-2) | +.5 | +400 |
| 2. | Baltimore Ravens | 8 | 5-1 (3-3) | +.5 | +600 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6 | 5-2 (4-3) | +1 | +800 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 6 | 6-0 (5-1) | +1 | +850 |
| 5. | Green Bay Packers | 5.5 | 5-1 (5-1) | +.5 | +1100 |
| 6. | Seattle Seahawks | 5.5 | 5-1 (4-2) | — | +1000 |
| 7. | Tennessee Titans | 4 | 5-1 (2-4) | — | +2000 |
| 8. | Los Angeles Rams | 4 | 5-2 (4-3) | +.5 | +1700 |
| 9. | New Orleans Saints | 3.5 | 4-2 (2-4) | — | +1400 |
| 10. | San Francisco 49ers | 3 | 4-3 (4-3) | +1 | +2800 |
| 11. | Buffalo Bills | 2.5 | 5-2 (3-4) | -.5 | +2200 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 2.5 | 4-2 (3-3) | — | +3000 |
| 13. | Arizona Cardinals | 2 | 5-2 (5-2) | +1.5 | +2800 |
| 14. | Cleveland Browns | 1.5 | 5-2 (4-3) | -.5 | +4000 |
| 15. | Los Angeles Chargers | 1.5 | 2-4 (5-1) | +1 | +10000 |
| 16. | Las Vegas Raiders | 1 | 3-3 (3-3) | — | +6600 |
| 17. | Chicago Bears | 0 | 5-2 (4-3) | -.5 | +5000 |
| 18. | Detroit Lions | 0 | 3-3 (3-3) | +.5 | +8000 |
| 19. | New England Patriots | 0 | 2-3 (2-4) | -2.5 | +6000 |
| 20. | Carolina Panthers | 0 | 3-4 (4-3) | +.5 | +125000 |
| 21. | Philadelphia Eagles | -.5 | 2-4-1 (2-5) | +.5 | +5000 |
| 22. | Houston Texans | -.5 | 1-6 (1-6) | -.5 | +20000 |
| 23. | Atlanta Falcons | -.5 | 1-6 (2-5) | — | +20000 |
| 24. | Minnesota Vikings | -.5 | 1-5 (3-3) | -.5 | +20000 |
| 25. | Miami Dolphins | -1.5 | 3-3 (4-2) | — | +10000 |
| 26. | Cincinnati Bengals | -2 | 1-5-1 (5-2) | — | +60000 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | -3 | 2-4 (4-2) | -1 | +22500 |
| 28. | New York Giants | -3.5 | 1-6 (4-3) | +.5 | +35000 |
| 29. | Washington | -4 | 2-5 (4-3) | +.5 | +15000 |
| 30. | Dallas Cowboys | -4.5 | 2-5 (0-7) | -3 | +10000 |
| 31. | Jacksonville Jaguars | -5.5 | 1-6 (2-5) | — | +100000 |
| 32. | New York Jets | -9.5 | 0-7 (1-6) | — | +150000 |
Week 8 Risers
Teams who improved from the last Power Ratings update on October 21.
Chiefs (8.5 to 9) — Kansas City is starting to look scary good with its defense holding its last two opponents (Bills and Broncos) to just 33 points combined. The Chiefs scored 43 points while running just 51 plays and netting just 286 yards against the Broncos.
Ravens (7.5 to 8) — The Ravens defense got better over their bye week when they traded for Yannick Ngakoue, which they did to better defend against Patrick Mahomes. Wink Martindale has coordinated the blitz-happiest defense over the last season-plus, and the addition of Ngakoue will help the Ravens rush just their front four more in the future, which will free up more defenders on the back end to defend against the pass.
Buccaneers (5 to 6) — The Buccaneers just posted their second dominant victory in a row as they knocked off two teams with winning records at the time (Packers and Raiders) by a combined 53 points. Oh yeah, they also signed the best receiver of the 2010s at the end of last week.
Steelers (5 to 6) — The Steelers are the only remaining unbeaten team in the NFL after they went to Nashville and beat the Titans 27-24 as one-point road underdogs. Pittsburgh continues to look like one of the most well-rounded teams with no glaring weaknesses.
Packers (5 to 5.5) — The Packers offense went into Houston undermanned without Aaron Jones and they still dominated the Texans with Aaron Rodgers throwing for four TDs and with Davante Adams piling up 13/196/1 receiving.
Rams (3.5 to 4) — The Rams defense continues to play like one of the league’s best stop units after sacking Nick Foles four times and intercepting him twice in Week 7. Los Angeles has allowed just 33 points in the second half in seven games this season.
49ers (2 to 3) — The 49ers’ season appeared to be on the brink heading into their Sunday night showdown with the Rams in Week 6. They’ve proceeded to rip off back-to-back impressive wins over Los Angeles and New England to get themselves right back into the mix in the NFC West.
Cardinals (.5 to 2) — The Cardinals played their best game since their season-opening victory over the 49ers. Kyler Murray posted 360/3 passing and 67/1 rushing while their defense intercepted Russell Wilson three times. For perspective, Wilson last threw two INTs in a game back in the 2018 season opener and three INTs back in Week 14 of 2017.
Chargers (.5 to 1.5) — Justin Herbert continued his unexpected breakout rookie campaign by accounting for all four scores in Los Angeles 39-29 victory over Jacksonville. He posted 347/3 passing and 66/1 rushing and against a miserable Jaguars defense that’s allowed 30+ points for the sixth straight game.
Panthers (-.5 to 0) — Carolina fell a field goal short of taking the Saints to overtime in the Superdome, but they covered for the fourth time in their last five games. D.J. Moore has posted 93 receiving yards in three straight games after a slow start to the season.
Lions (-.5 to 0) — The Lions were the latest team to pull a rabbit out of the hat against the Falcons as they pulled out a 23-22 win in improbable fashion. Detroit has covered spreads in three out of their last four games, and they just acquired Everson Griffen to help one of the league’s worst pass rushes.
Eagles (-1 to -.5) — Carson Wentz continues to trend in the right direction even as everything around him keeps crumbling down. He threw for a season-high 359 yards and he ran for his fifth touchdown of the season, but he once again lost some key offensive pieces against the Giants with RT Lane Johnson (MCL and WR DeSean Jackson (high ankle).
Football Team (-4.5 to -4) — The Football Team is in the thick of the race for the NFC East title after knocking off the Cowboys for their second win of the season. Antonio Gibson is starting to add some firepower to this offense to go along with Terry McLaurin.
Giants (-4 to -3.5) — The Giants coughed up an 11-point fourth-quarter lead to the Eagles in Week 6, but they have shown some glimpses of life the last two weeks under a rookie HC. Sterling Shepard’s return to the lineup opened up this passing attack and he gives Daniel Jones some hope going forward.
Week 8 Fallers
Teams who worsened from the last Power Ratings update on October 21.
Bills (3 to 2.5) — The Bills trailed the Jets at halftime last week, which tells you about the current state of their offense and defense. The Bills have just 46 points in their last three games and they’ve failed to reach 20+ points in any of those contests.
Browns (2 to 1.5) — The Browns lost their top receiver, Odell Beckham, for the season to a torn ACL, which leaves them with a gimpy Jarvis Landry and two unproven receivers in Rashard Higgins and Donovan Peoples-Jones. Ironically, Baker Mayfield played his best football the moment OBJ left the lineup in Week 7.
Bears (.5 to 0) — The Bears are sitting at 5-2 even after their loss to the Rams, but their point differential is now -2. Chicago’s offense continues to be a major problem as they failed to find the end zone against Los Angeles as Eddie Jackson scored their only TD on a fumble recovery.
Patriots (2.5 to 0) — The Patriots are riding their first three-game losing streak since October 2002. Cam Newton has come plummeting back to earth after his brilliant start to the season. It doesn’t help that he has the worst cast of receivers in the league, and the defense is now starting to wear down having to cover for this pathetic offense.
Texans (0 to -.5) — The Texans lost top CB Bradley Roby to a knee injury at the start of Week 7 and that was all she wrote for Houston as Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams did whatever they wanted against a bad Texans defense.
Vikings (0 to -.5) — The Vikings, sitting at 1-5 during their bye week, waved the white towel on their season by moving their sunk-cost Yannick Ngakoue to the Ravens just six games after they acquired him before the season.
Broncos (-2 to -3) — The Broncos never had a chance against the Chiefs in a mistake-filled loss as Melvin Gordon lost two fumbles and their special teams unit allowed a kick return touchdown to Byron Pringle in the lopsided loss. Drew Lock has also been a major disappointment since returning to the lineup and they lost another key defender in run-stuff Mike Purcell (foot, IR).
Cowboys (-1.5 to -4.5) — The Cowboys haven’t had a defense for the entire season. They don’t have an offensive line now and they just had their second-string quarterback knocked out last week. Throw in the fact that there’s already locker-room tension between the players and a first-year coach and this situation could ignite at any time (if it hasn’t already).
