Week 6 Sunday Trends and Picks

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Week 6 Sunday Trends and Picks

Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

This week’s player props!

  • Lamar Jackson (Bal) under 49.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings)

  • Greg Ward (Phi) over 3.5 receptions (-106, DraftKings)

  • Frank Gore (NYJ) under 7.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

  • Michael Gallup (Dal) over 41.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

  • Ryan Tannehill (Ten) under 262.5 passing yards (-112, DraftKings)

  • Todd Gurley (Atl) over 57.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings)

  • David Montgomery (Chi) over 85.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

  • Myles Gaskin (Mia) over 3.5 receptions (+108, DraftKings)

  • Trey Burton (Ind) over 26.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)

  • Jonathan Taylor (Ind) over 92.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

  • Damien Harris (NE) over 53.5 rushing yards (-110, FanDuel)

  • Russell Gage (Atl) under 40.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)

  • Eric Ebron (Pit) over 3.5 receptions (+114, FanDuel)

  • Jarvis Landry (Cle) over 4.5 receptions (+108, DraftKings)

Early Afternoon Games

Cleveland Browns (4-1, 3-2 ATS) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-0, 3-1), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Browns 23.75, Steelers 27.25

  • Spread/Total Movements: 4.5 to 3.5, 50 to 52 to 51

  • Weather: 58 degrees, mostly cloudy, 10 mph

  • Browns Injuries to Watch: RG Wyatt Teller (calf, out), QB Baker Mayfield (rib), WR Jarvis Landry (hip), RB Kareem Hunt (thigh), WR Odell Beckham (illness), S Ronnie Harrison (concussion), S Karl Joseph (hamstring), DT Larry Ogunjobi (abdomen), DE Olivier Vernon (groin), C J.C. Tretter (knee)

  • Steelers Injuries to Watch: WR Diontae Johnson (back), RG David DeCastro (abs)

Browns Trends

  • The Browns are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games

  • Cleveland has played over the total in four straight games.

  • Kareem Hunt played on 70% of the snaps in his first game without Nick Chubb (knee, IR), and he turned those snaps into 20/72 rushing and 3/21/1 receiving on four targets. D’Ernest Johnson was a distant second option to Hunt with a 30% snap share. Half of Johnson’s eight carries came on the final four offensive plays for the Browns after Hunt cramped up and with Cleveland nursing the clock before their game-sealing field goal in the final minute. Hunt will have to play the next couple of weeks without RG Wyatt Teller (calf strain), which is a bit of a blow since Teller has been one of the best guards in the league to open the season. Miles Sanders posted 11/80/2 rushing against the Steelers last week with 74 of those yards coming on one long TD run.

  • The Browns changed their stripes a bit in their first game without Chubb as they came out aggressive and threw the rock against the Colts in Week 5. Baker Mayfield had averaged 25.3 passes per game in victories in Week 2-4, but he attempted 37 passes against the Colts in another positive game script. Mayfield has thrown for multiple TDs in four straight games, but he’s yet to reach 18+ FP.

  • Jarvis Landry benefitted from the adjustment with 4/88 receiving on nine targets (23.6% share) while Odell Beckham posted a solid 5/58 receiving on 10 targets (26.3%) against the Colts. The Browns will have to stay aggressive this week as four-point road underdogs against Pittsburgh.

  • Landry has seen his target share rise in each of the last four weeks, reaching a season-best 24% share last week. Slot WRs Greg Ward (4/26/1 receiving) and Randall Cobb (4/95/1) have each posted 12+ FP against the Steelers in their last two games.

  • OBJ has 55+ receiving yards and 4+ catches in four straight games, including 17 targets in their last two games. The Steelers have allowed some big games to top options on the perimeter this season with Travis Fulgham (10/152/1), Will Fuller (4/95/1), and Darius Slayton (6/102/2) each going for 15+ FP.

Steelers Trends

  • The Steelers will allow 7,500 spectators at the game this week.

  • The Steelers have never lost to the Browns at home during Mike Tomlin’s 13-year tenure, and they’re 19-1 at Heinz Field since it opened in 2001.

  • Ben Roethlisberger owns a 22-2-1 record against the Browns.

  • The Steelers have played over the total in three straight games.

  • Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games.

  • Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for multiple TDs and he’s reached 19+ FP in his first four games this season. The Browns limited Philip Rivers to 243/0 passing last week but they had given up multiple TD passes in their first four games, including three games with 3+ TDs.

  • Myles Garrett leads the NFL with 28 QB pressures while Big Ben has been the fastest at getting the ball out of his hands this season with a 2.37-second average.

  • Chase Claypool had been making splash plays every week before fully busting out for 11/110/3 receiving on nine targets against the Eagles last week — he added a rushing TD too. He’s scoring a touchdown once every five targets right now and he’s seen 70% or more of the snaps the last two games with Diontae Johnson out of the lineup.

  • Diontae has left very early in consecutive games with a concussion in Week 3 and a back injury in Week 5, which has certainly helped Claypool emerge. T.Y. Hilton managed 6/69 receiving on 10 targets in this matchup last week.

  • JuJu Smith-Schuster has yet to lead the Steelers in targets in any game this season and his aDOT sits at a meager 4.6 yards. He has fallen under 50+ receiving yards in three straight games and he’s averaging just six targets per game. Luckily, he’s catching 87.5% of his passes (21) and he has three TDs to keep his production somewhat afloat.

  • Eric Ebron didn’t disappoint against the Eagles with 5/43 receiving on six targets. He now has five catches in each of his last two games with a 21% target share in that span. Ebron’s aDOT sits at 9.9 yards which puts him behind only Mark Andrews, Mike Gesicki, and Hayden Hurst among TEs who have seen 20+ targets at the position. Ebron gets another great spot this week against a Browns defense that’s giving up 17.6 FPG to TEs (6th-most), which includes three performances of 12+ FP in the first five weeks of the season.

  • James Conner has a rushing touchdown in each of his last three games and he’s averaging 19.3 touches per game since his Week 1 benching. His snap rate has dipped in each of the last three weeks to 63% last week with Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland mixing in a bit more. Jonathan Taylor posted 12/57/1 rushing and 2/17 receiving against the Browns last week, and they’ve yet to allow an individual to reach 60+ rushing yards in a game.

Brolley’s Bets

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (Best Bet)

Eric Ebron (Pit) over 3.5 receptions (Best Bet)

Jarvis Landry (Cle) over 4.5 receptions (Best Bet)

Chicago Bears (4-1, 3-2 ATS) at Carolina Panthers (3-2, 3-2), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Bears 21.5, Panthers 23
  • Spread/Total Movements: 3 to 1.5, 45 to 44.5
  • Weather: 60 degrees, clear, 5 mph
  • Bears Injuries to Watch: None of note.
  • Panthers Injuries to Watch: DE Brian Burns (concussion), DT Kawann Short (shoulder, IR), DT Zach Kerr (toe), DE Yetur Gross-Matos (ankle), WR Curtis Samuel (knee), CB Donte Jackson (toe)

Bears Trends

  • Chicago is 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games.
  • The Bears are 4-1 toward under in their last five road games.
  • David Montgomery ran into one of the league’s best run defenses in Week 5 going against the Buccaneers, and he survived with 18.9 FPG thanks to his heavy usage as the team’s newly-minted bell-cow back. He posted 10/29/1 rushing (2.9 YPC) and 7/30 receiving on eight targets (4.3 YPR), but on more than 80% of the snaps for the second straight week with Tarik Cohen (ACL, IR) done for the season. The Bears did appear to be working Cordarrelle Patterson into Cohen’s old role a little more in Week 5, but Montgomery is still soaking up most of the work in this backfield now. Montgomery is an elite option going against the Panthers run defense that allowed the corpse of Todd Gurley to post 14/121/1 rushing last week.
  • Nick Foles hasn’t topped 250+ passing yards and he has one TD and one INT in each of his first two starts with the Bears. The Panthers allowed three TD passes (and just 133 passing yards) to Kyler Murray in Week 3, but they’ve allowed just four TD passes in their other four games.
  • Allen Robinson has been absolutely rolling since Foles stepped into the lineup against the Falcons in Week 3. He posted another 10/90 receiving on 16 targets against the Buccaneers in Week 3, which gives him three straight games with 10+ targets, 7+ catches, and 90+ receiving yards. A-Rob more than doubled up the closest receiver in Week 5 and he saw a healthy 38% target share against Tampa.
  • Darnell Mooney has seen 19 targets the last three weeks since Foles took over, and the veteran QB missed him for what should’ve been a long TD pass last week.
  • Jimmy Graham has topped 35+ yards just once this season, but he’s back to being a red-zone force with four TDs and a team-best six end-zone targets. The Panthers have allowed just one TD to tight ends this season.

Panthers Trends

  • The Panthers will continue to allow fans at a limited capacity.
  • The Panthers are favorites for the first time this season after pulling off three straight outright wins as an underdog.
  • Carolina is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six home games.
  • The Panthers are 4-1 toward overs in their last five home games.
  • Mike Davis has posted three straight games with 22+ FP since taking over as the starter after posting 16/89 rushing and 9/60/1 receiving against the Falcons in Week 5. He’s averaging 22.3 touches and 117.0 scrimmage yards per game over the last three weeks. The Bears allowed 125 scrimmage yards to Ronald Jones last week, but they haven’t allowed a TD to a running back the last two weeks after giving one TD in each of their first three games.
  • Teddy Bridgewater has hung 20+ FP and he’s finished as a QB1 in each of the last two weeks in great spots, but he’ll face a Bears defense that hasn’t allowed multiple passing TDs in any game.
  • Robby Anderson is averaging 9.7 targets per game in the last three weeks, and he has 5+ catches in every game to start the year. He’s the only WR inside the top 10 at the position in FPG that has one or fewer scores this season. The Bears are allowing the second-fewest FPG to WRs (28.8) this season, and Calvin Ridley (5/110 receiving) and Mike Evans (5/41/1) are the only WRs to reach 15+ FP against them.
  • D.J. Moore is averaging 5 targets per game while Curtis Samuel is averaging 4.3 in the last three weeks. Moore came through last week with a 57-yards, catch-and-run TD. The Bears have yet to allow two WRs to reach double-digit FP in the same game.

Brolley’s Bets

Carolina Panthers -1 (Staff Pick Lean)

David Montgomery (Chi) over 85.5 rushing and receiving yards (Best Bet)

Cincinnati Bengals (1-3-1, 3-2 ATS) at Indianapolis Colts (3-2, 3-2), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Bengals 19.5, Colts 27
  • Spread/Total Movements: 9.5 to 7.5, 46 to 46.5
  • Weather: Dome
  • Bengals Injuries to Watch: WR A.J. Green (hamstring), DT D.J. Reader (quad, IR), DE Sam Hubbard (elbow, IR), CB Mackensie Alexander (hamstring) CB Darius Phillips (shoulder)
  • Colts Injuries to Watch: LB Darius Leonard (groin), RB Jordan Wilkins (calf), TE Mo Alie-Cox (knee), DE Denico Autry (ankle), DE Justin Houston (hip)

Bengals Trends

  • Joe Mixon saw 76% of the snaps and every RB carry (24) last week, and he out-targeted Gio Bernard 8 to 2 despite the Bengals trailing all game against the Ravens. He previously played fewer than 60% of the snaps in the Bengals other two losses. The Bengals enter as eight-point road underdogs and they’ve allowed an opposing back to reach three catches in three straight games and Kareem Hunt scored a receiving TD last week.
  • The Ravens suffocated Joe Burrow by sacking him seven times in a dominant 27-3 victory over the Bengals. He’s posted just 22 FP combined the last two weeks and the Colts are giving up the fewest FPG to QBs (12.5) and they’ve yet to allow more than 250+ passing yards to a QB.
  • Tyler Boyd struggled against Marlon Humphrey last week, managed just 4/42 receiving on six targets. Jarvis Landry posted 4/88 receiving in this matchup last week
  • Tee Higgins is the top perimeter WR with A.J. Green (hamstring) getting old and mailing it in. The rookie has three straight games with 4+ catches and 40+ receiving yards and he owns a 23% target share with an aDOT of 15.3 yards during that span. Allen Robinson managed 7/101/1 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago.

Colts Trends

  • The Colts will allow up to 12,500 fans this week.
  • The Colts are 5-1 toward unders in their last six games as a home favorite.
  • Indy is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.
  • The Colts are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite.
  • Jonathan Taylor has played on 52% of the snaps since Marlon Mack left the lineup after the season opener, and the rookie is averaging 15.3 touches per game the last three weeks after they fed him 28 touches in Week 2. The Bengals were already allowing the third-most rushing yards per game to opposing RBs (131.4) before they lost run-stuffer D.J. Reader for the season.
  • Philip Rivers hasn’t thrown for multiple TDs in a game this season and he hasn’t reached 250+ passing yards since the season opener. Gardner Minshew is the only QB to throw for more than 225 yards against the Bengals.
  • T.Y. Hilton posted season-bests in catches (6), yards (69), and targets (10) with the Colts chasing points last week — the Colts enter this week as eight-point home favorites. The Bengals have allowed 19+ FP to three straight #1 WRs (Hollywood/Chark/Greg Ward).
  • The Colts are using a committee at tight end with Trey Burton, Mo Alie-Cox, and Jack Doyle all healthy. Burton has emerged as the top receiving option in the group with 35 routes and 11 targets in the last two weeks compared to 16 routes and three targets for MAC and 29 routes and three targets for Doyle. Burton finished with 5/33 receiving on six targets against the Browns while Doyle and Alie-Cox combined for no catches on three targets. The Bengals have allowed the third-most TE targets this season with 48 (9.6 per game) so Burton has a chance to be active this week with Rivers struggling with his shaky WR corps right now.

Brolley’s Bets

Cincinnati Bengals +8 (Staff Pick Lean)

Trey Burton (Ind) over 26.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Jonathan Taylor (Ind) over 92.5 rushing and receiving yards (Best Bet)

Detroit Lions (1-3, 1-3 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4, 2-3), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Lions 29, Jaguars 25.5
  • Spread/Total Movements: 3 to 3.5, 52.5 to 54.5
  • Weather: 80 degrees, clear, 15 mph
  • Lions Injuries to Watch: RB Adrian Peterson (illness), CB Desmond Trufant (hamstring), C Frank Ragnow (groin), DE Da’Shawn Hand (chest)
  • Jaguars Injuries to Watch: WR D.J. Chark (ankle), WR Laviska Shenault (hamstring), DE Josh Allen (knee), LB Myles Jack (ankle), CB C.J. Henderson (shoulder), TE Tyler Eifert (neck)

Lions Trends

  • Detroit has the second-highest implied team total of the week.
  • The Lions extended their NFL record for blown double-digit leads in their loss to the Saints. It was the fifth straight game in which the Lions held a double-digit lead yet still found a way to lose.
  • Detroit is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games.
  • The Lions have played four straight games over the total when playing a team with a losing record.
  • The Lions are 2-0 ATS after bye weeks under Matt Patricia.
  • Matthew Stafford has multiple passing TDs in each of his last three games. He returns off his bye week in a good spot against a Jaguars defense that just got carved up by Deshaun Watson for 359/3 passing.
  • Stafford has averaged more than 10+ air yards on his attempts in the two games since Kenny Golladay returned to the lineup so expect Stafford to attack this banged up Jaguars defense with the deep ball. The Jaguars are giving up a league-high 8.7 YPA. Golladay has 4+ catches and 60+ yards with a touchdown in his first two games back. Keep an eye on C.J. Henderson’s status this week with D.J. Hayden already on the IR.
  • Marvin Jones has just 4/60 receiving on five targets in two games since Golladay returned. Texans #2 WR Brandin Cooks went nuclear in this matchup last week with 8/161/1 receiving.
  • T.J. Hockenson had posted 4+ catches and 50+ yards in three straight games to open the season before posting 2/9/1 receiving on four targets against the Saints. Hock has seen four end-zone targets this season and the Jaguars have allowed four TDs to tight ends in the last four weeks.
  • D’Andre Swift posted 4/30/1 receiving while playing 23 snaps in a negative game script the last time out against the Saints. Adrian Peterson could get some run this week with the Lions lined as 3.5-point road favorites. Four straight RBs have reached 65+ rushing yards, including David Johnson (17/96 rushing) and Joe Mixon (25/151/2) in the last two weeks

Jaguars Trends

  • The Jaguars are allowing spectators at 25% of the stadium’s capacity.
  • Three straight teams picked up their first wins of the season against the Jaguars the last three weeks (Mia/Cin/Hou).
  • The Jaguars have come crashing back to earth the last three weeks with three straight losses against the spread after opening the seasons with two covers.
  • Gardner Minshew has scored 20+ FP in every game except for his lone national TV game against the Dolphins in Week 3, which coincided with D.J. Chark being out of the lineup. The Lions have given up between 240 and 270 yards with multiple TD passes in each of their four games this season.
  • D.J. Chark did pick up an ankle injury last week, which would be a downgrade for Minshew if he’s unable to play. Chark had 4+ catches and 80+ yards in his last two games, but he managed just 3/16 receiving before leaving early last week.
  • Laviska Shenault disappointed with 5/33 receiving on six targets with Chark out of the lineup in Week 3, but he’s posted 5+ catches and 75+ receiving yards in his last two games with Chark back in the lineup. Secondary options Tre’Quan Smith and Andy Isabella each scored twice against the Lions in their last two games.
  • Keelan Cole has yet to reach 60+ receiving yards in a game this season, but he does have 8+ FP in every game.
  • James Robinson is averaging 14.6 carries and 66.6 rushing yards per game while the Lions are allowing a league-high 147.5 rushing yards per game. Robinson has out-targeted Chris Thompson 21 to 13 over the last four weeks, and he has 4+ targets and 3+ catches in each of those games.

Brolley’s Bets

Detroit Lions -3 (Best Bet)

Atlanta Falcons (0-5, 1-4 ATS) at Minnesota Vikings (1-4, 3-2), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Falcons 25, Vikings 29
  • Spread/Total Movements: 3.5 to 4, 55.5 to 54
  • Weather: Dome
  • Falcons Injuries to Watch: WR Julio Jones (hamstring), S Keanu Neal (hamstring), DE Dante Fowler (ankle), TE Hayden Hurst (back), WR Russell Gage (shoulder), DT Grady Jarrett (back), DE Takk McKinley (groin)
  • Vikings Injuries to Watch: RB Dalvin Cook (groin), RG Dru Samia (wrist), DT Jaleel Johnson (back)

Falcons Trends

  • The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
  • Atlanta has covered four straight spreads against teams with a losing record.
  • Atlanta’s season has gone sideways after blowing consecutive huge fourth-quarter leads to the Cowboys and the Bears, which culminated in owner Arthur Blank firing both HC Dan Quinn and GM Thomas Dimitroff after their Week 5 loss to the Panthers.
  • Matt Ryan has really struggled the last three weeks with Julio Jones nursing a hamstring injury. He’s failed to throw for a touchdown in the last two games and he has one TD to two INTs over the last three weeks. In fact, Ryan has gone 11 quarters without throwing for a touchdown pass as his last score came in the first quarter of Week 3 against the Bears. Ryan completed 21/37 passes for 226 yards (6.1 YPA) and one INT in a loss to the Panthers in Week 5. Philip Rivers is the only QBs who hasn’t thrown for multiple TDs and/or 300+ yards against the Vikings through five weeks.
  • Julio will look to return this week off of his hamstring injury. He has just 6/56 receiving on eight targets in his last two appearances while dealing with the injury after posting 9/157 in the season opener.
  • Calvin Ridley bounced back in a big way off of his Week 4 goose egg by reaching 100+ yards, 5+ catches, and 10+ targets for the fourth time in a game this season. The Vikings are giving up a league-high 1.8 touchdowns per game to WRs.
  • Hayden Hurst has two games with fewer than 10 receiving yards so far but he’s still sitting at a 14% target share in a pass-heavy offense and he’s run the fifth-most routes at the position at 172. Hurst managed just 2/8 receiving on six targets (16% share) against the Panthers in Week 5, which gives him just 7/60/1 receiving on 15 targets the last three weeks with Julio hobbled by his hamstring injury. The Vikings have yet to allow a TD to an opposing TE this season.
  • Todd Gurley is actually off to a strong fantasy start after scoring another touchdown in Week 5 as he posted 14/121/1 rushing and 4/29 receiving against the lowly Panthers run defense. Gurley now has five touchdowns in five games, but he hasn’t looked particularly explosive as a runner and he’s done next to nothing as a receiver until last week — he had just 4/9 receiving in the first four games. The Vikings have allowed five rushing TDs to RBs so far.

Vikings Trends

  • Minnesota has the second-highest implied team total of the week.
  • The Vikings will allow up to 250 family members to attend this week.
  • The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with losing records.
  • Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite.
  • The Vikings are 4-0 outright and ATS against the Falcons during Mike Zimmer’s tenure.
  • Alexander Mattison had 18 carries in the second half without Dalvin Cook in the mix, and he out-snapped Mike Boone 43 to 5 last week. He finished with 20/112 rushing and 3/24 receiving against the Seahawks last week. The Falcons have given up 22+ FP to a pair of bell-cow backs the last two weeks in Mike Davis (149/1 scrimmage) and Aaron Jones (111/1).
  • Kirk Cousins disappointed with 249/2 passing against the Seahawks last week, but he did attempt a season-high 39 passes last week after topping out at 27 attempts. The Vikings will be without Cook this week because of his groin injury so the Vikings could skew a little more pass-heavy than usual once again. It also doesn’t hurt that their opponent, the Falcons, also skews teams toward the pass. They’ve allowed 300+ passing yards in every game with 15 passing TDs allowed for the season.
  • Adam Thielen leads all receivers with a 32% target share and he’s second in air yards share with 46%. Thielen has three games with 26+ FP wrapped around 6/60/1 receiving combined in Weeks 2-3. The Falcons have allowed 33+ FP combined to a pair of WRs in every game except in Week 4 when the Packers were trotting out scrubs at the position. Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore combined for 38.8 FP last week with 12/205/1 receiving on 18 targets.
  • Justin Jefferson saw just a 13% target share in Week 5 after hanging 11/278/1 receiving on 14 targets in Weeks 3-4. The Falcons are allowing 14.9 YPR to opposing WRs.
  • OC Gary Kubiak finally pulled Irv Smith out of his wrapper for the 2020 season against the Seahawks. The second-year TE ran a route on 31-of-42 dropbacks (73.8%) from Cousins in Week 5 after running routes on only 52.6% of Cousins’ dropbacks through the first four weeks of the season. His spike in usage helped him to a season-best 4/64 receiving on five targets against the Seahawks. The Falcons didn’t allow a catch to Ian Thomas and the Panthers TEs last week, and they’re still giving the second-most FPG to TEs (21.5) despite last week’s goose egg.

Brolley’s Bets

Minnesota Vikings -4 (Staff Pick Lean)

Todd Gurley (Atl) over 57.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

Russell Gage (Atl) under 40.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Washington Football Team (1-4, 2-3 ATS) at New York Giants (0-5, 3-2), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Washington 20.25, Giants 22.75
  • Spread/Total Movements: 3 to 2.5, 43.5 to 43
  • Weather: 60 degrees, clear, 10 mph
  • Washington Injuries to Watch: LG Brandon Scherff (MCL)
  • Giants Injuries to Watch: WR Darius Slayton (foot), DL Dexter Lawrence (knee), S Jabrill Peppers (ankle), LB Kyler Fackrell (ankle)

Washington Trends

  • The Football Team is 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
  • Washington is 6-2 toward overs in its last eight games.
  • Kyle Allen completed 9/13 passes for 74 yards (5.7 YPA) against the Rams last week before injuring his arm. Alex Smith made his triumphant return to the field last week, but they’ll go back to Allen this week. The Giants have held four QBs to under 230 yards because of their non-competitive offense.
  • Terry McLaurin struggled for 3/26 receiving on seven targets going against a nasty Rams secondary and with his new QBs last week. He gets another tough matchup against James Bradberry this week. Amari Cooper (2/23 receiving) and Robert Woods (6/36) each struggled in this matchup.
  • Antonio Gibson saw his second-best snap share of the season at 56%, which he turned into 16 touches with five catches (but only 51 yards). Gibson now has double-digit FP in his last four games. Ezekiel Elliott turned 20 touches into 105/2 scrimmage against the Giants last week.
  • J.D. McKissic has run 77 routes to just 44 routes for Gibson the last three weeks, and he has 17/123 receiving in that span. The Football Team has played in negative game scripts in each of those games, but Washington should play in more neutral game scripts this week as they enter as three-point underdogs.

Giants Trends

  • The Giants are not allowing spectators.
  • The favorite has covered four straight games in this series.
  • The Giants are 4-1 ATS in the last five games in this series.
  • New York is 5-1 toward overs in its last six home games.
  • The Giants have covered in five straight games against teams with a losing record.
  • Daniel Jones hasn’t thrown for a TD since he connected twice with Darius Slayton for scores in the season opener. The Football Team has allowed multiple passing TDs and a rushing TD to Jared Goff and Lamar Jackson in each of the last two weeks.
  • Evan Engram luckily scored a rushing TD last week as he finished with just a 16-yard catch on two targets. He has an aDOT of just 4.5 yards but he’s still seeing 18% of the targets. The Football Team had given up a receiving TD to a TE in every game until last week but Gerald Everett still posted 4/90 receiving.
  • Darius Slayton has been the top dog with Sterling Shepard (foot, IR) out of the lineup. Slayton has seen a 27% target share and 14/230 receiving on 25 targets in the last three weeks. No other Giants receiver has even reached 100+ receiving yards in that span. The Football Team has allowed just two TDs to WRs this season and Washington is allowing the third-fewest FPG to WRs (29.5).
  • Golden Tate has 4+ catches in each of his first four games this season, but he’s yet to reach 50+ receiving yards or to find the end zone. Cooper Kupp posted 5/66 receiving on eight targets in this matchup last week.
  • Devonta Freeman has seen a 54% snap share in each of the last two weeks, which he’s turned into 10+ FP in each game. He posted 87 scrimmage yards with a TD last week against the Cowboys. The Football Team has allowed 65+ scrimmage yards to an individual RB just twice this season.

Brolley’s Bets

New York Giants -2.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Baltimore Ravens (4-1, 3-2 ATS) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-3-1, 1-4), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Ravens 27.5, Eagles 20
  • Spread/Total Movements: 7 to 7.5, 46.5 to 47.5
  • Weather: 60 degrees, clear, 5-10 mph
  • Ravens Injuries to Watch: CB Marcus Peters (thigh), S Jimmy Smith (knee), DE Derek Wolfe (neck)
  • Eagles Injuries to Watch: CB Darius Slay (concussion), RT Lane Johnson (ankle), WR DeSean Jackson (hamstring), WR Alshon Jeffery (foot), CB Avonte Maddox (ankle), LB Duke Riley (rib)

Ravens Trends,

  • The Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
  • Baltimore is 1-5 toward unders in its last six games.
  • The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Ravens are averaging 29.8 points per game and they’re allowing 15.2 PPG. Only six teams have scored 28 or more PPG while allowing 16 or fewer PPG for the entire season, and no team has done it since the Rams did it during the 1999 Super Bowl campaign.
  • Lamar Jackson is averaging just 5.9 FPG on the ground this season and the Ravens have given him just 4.2 designed carries per game. He’s also fallen under 205 passing yards in each of his last four games. The Eagles have allowed multiple passing TDs to QBs in three of their last four games. Philly has yet to face a real running threat at the position.
  • Hollywood Brown leads the team with a 27% target share and a 42% air yards share with 6+ targets in every game. The status of top CB Darius Slay (concussion) will be big for Brown this week.
  • Mark Andrews has found the end zone five times already after doing it 10 times last year, but he’s yet to top 60+ yards in a game this season. The Eagles have been trampled by TEs all season as they’re allowing the fourth-most FPG (18.8) and the third-most TDs (5) to the position.
  • Mark Ingram has topped 6+ FP in just two of five games. J.K. Dobbins has done it four times, but he’s been topped 10+ FP just once. Gus Edwards has topped 5+ FP only once. The Ravens do not have a single RB in the top 36 in total FP. The Eagles are allowing just 3.4 YPC to RBs so far.

Eagles Trends

  • The Eagles will allow 7,500 spectators this week.
  • The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
  • Philly is 5-1 toward unders in its last six games as a home underdog.
  • Miles Sanders has played 77% of the snaps or more in each of his four games. He broke off a 76-yard touchdown run against the Steelers but otherwise managed just 10/6 rushing on his other carries. The Eagles are touchdown-plus underdogs again this week and Sanders has just 9/78 receiving in the early going. The Ravens limited Joe Mixon to 94 scrimmage yards on 30 touches (3.1 yards per touch).
  • Carson Wentz has muscled out 19+ FP in three straight games despite his deteriorating cast of receivers. He has accounted for multiple TDs in four of his five games but he’s also accounted for multiple turnovers in four of his five games. The Ravens suffocated Joe Burrow last week, sacking him seven times and holding him to 183/1 passing.
  • Travis Fulgham caught the game-winning TD against the 49ers in Week 4 before posting 10/152/1 receiving against the Steelers in Week 5 while seeing a 36% target share. The Ravens have allowed only two TDs to WRs this season. Tee Higgins posted 4/62 receiving on eight targets in this matchup last week.
  • Zach Ertz has five catches for 15 yards on 11 targets in his first two games since Dallas Goedert injured his ankle. He’s still leading the position in routes run this season with 201, but he’s averaging a putrid .72 yards per route run. The Ravens have allowed four different TEs to reach 10+ FP this season

Brolley’s Bets

Baltimore Ravens -7.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

Lamar Jackson (Bal) under 49.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

Greg Ward (Phi) over 3.5 receptions (Best Bet)

Houston Texans (1-4, 1-4 ATS) at Tennessee Titans (4-0, 1-3), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Texans 25, Titans 28.5
  • Spread/Total Movements: 3 to 3.5, 54 to 53.5
  • Weather: 62% degrees, mostly cloudy, 10 mph
  • Texans Injuries to Watch: TE Jordan Akins (ankle), ILB Benardrick McKinney (shoulder, IR), LT Laremy Tunsil (shoulder)
  • Titans Injuries to Watch: TE Jonnu Smith (quad), WR A.J. Brown (knee), DL Jadeveon Clowney (knee/illness), RB Darrynton Evans (IR), DL DaQuan Jones (foot), LT Taylor Lewan (shoulder), S Kenny Vacarro (hamstring), CB Malcolm Butler (quad)

Texans Trends

  • The Texans are 4-1 toward overs in their last five games as an underdog.
  • The Texans set season-highs in play-action rate (29%) and air yards per attempt (11.1) in their first game without Bill O’Brien. Watson had his best game of the year with 359/3 against a terrible Jaguars defense, giving him consecutive games with 20+ FP. The Titans have two interceptions in three straight games, and they limited Josh Allen to 263/2 passing and 4/18 rushing last week.
  • Brandin Cooks ran a route on 97.5% of Watson’s dropbacks in Week 4 but he failed to catch a pass on three targets. He then ran a route on 89.5% of Watson’s dropbacks in Week 5 and he posted 8/161/1 receiving on 12 targets. Justin Jefferson burned the Titans for 7/175/1 receiving in Week 3 before Gabriel Davis managed 5/58 last week against Tennessee.
  • Will Fuller took a backseat to Cooks last week but he still posted 4/58/1 receiving, which now gives him a 15+ FP in four of his first five games. He did have that bizarre goose egg against the Ravens in Week 2, but he’s been consistent otherwise in the early going. Stefon Diggs posted 10/106 receiving in this matchup last week but he did need 16 targets to clear 100+ yards.
  • Darren Fells scored a long touchdown on a busted coverage with Jordan Akins (ankle) out of the lineup last week. Akins had posted 28+ yards in each of his first four games before missing last week. The Titans gave up a TD in each of their first three games before running into a Bills offense that doesn’t throw to the TE much last week.
  • David Johnson’s matchup got a little tougher this week with the Titans activating DT Jeffery Simmons from the COVID-19 list. The Titans had given up at least 75+ rushing yards to an individual back in each of their first three games before limiting Devin Singletary to 11/25 rushing last week. DJ has scored between 11-12 FP in each of his last three games. He’s totaled two catches in each of his last four games, and he finally got going on the ground again last week with 17/96 rushing (5.6 YPC).

Titans Trends

  • The Titans had 12.5% capacity on Tuesday night, a number that’s expected to increase gradually.
  • The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series.
  • The Titans are 7-1 toward overs in their last eight home games.
  • Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.
  • Derrick Henry has yet to rev up the engines this season as he’s averaged fewer than 4.0 YPC in three of his four games. He is back to finding the end zone with regularity with two TDs in each of his last two games after failing to find the end zone in Weeks 1-2. Henry has the chance to get going this week against a Texans defense that’s giving up the second-most rushing yards per game to RBs (141.2) with a 5.2 YPC average.
  • Ryan Tannehill is averaging 22.3 FPG and 8.9 YPA in 14 starts with the Titans. He accounted for four touchdowns (3 passing, 1 rushing) while throwing for just 195 rushing yards against the Bills in Week 5. The Texans are giving up the 10th-fewest FPG to QBs (18.6) thanks to their run-funnel defense. Tannehill threw for four TDs and ran for another in his two games against Houston last season.
  • A.J. Brown posted 7/82/1 receiving and he saw a 32% target share in his return to the lineup with Corey Davis and Adam Humphries out of the lineup. Humphries will be back this week after being activated from the COVID-19 list and we’ll find out about Davis later this week. Brown is averaging 8.5 targets per game through two games, and he crushed the Texans last season with 12/238/2 receiving in two games. The Texans have mostly contained #1 WRs so far this season with just Adam Thielen (8/114/1 receiving) going off.
  • Keep an eye on Davis’ status this weekend. Secondary WRs have had some success this season with Laviska Shenault (7/79 receiving), Justin Jefferson (4/103), and Sammy Watkins (7/82/1) each having big games.
  • Jonnu Smith scored two touchdowns last week and he dropped a would-be touchdown on a screen pass last week. He now has five touchdowns through four games and 10+ FP in every game. The Texans haven’t been tested by TEs the last two weeks but Eric Ebron and Travis Kelce each posted 50+ yards with a TD earlier this season.

Brolley’s Bets

Tennessee Titans -3 (Best Bet)

Ryan Tannehill (Ten) under 262.5 passing yards (Best Bet)

Denver Broncos (1-3, 3-1 ATS) at New England Patriots (2-2, 2-2), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Broncos 17.75, Patriots 27.25

  • Spread/Total Movements: 46.5 to 45

  • Weather: 60 degrees, clear, 5 mph

  • Broncos Injuries to Watch: TE Noah Fant (ankle), WR K.J. Hamler (hamstring, out), NT Mike Purcell (knee)

  • Patriots Injuries to Watch: WR Julian Edelman (knee), LT Isaiah Wynn (calf), RG Shaq Mason (calf)

Broncos Trends

  • Denver has the lowest implied team total of the week.

  • The Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.

  • Denver is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog

  • Drew Lock is trying to return to the lineup this week after missing the last two games with a shoulder injury. Brett Rypien would be the next man up if Lock isn’t ready to go, and Rypien is coming off a victory over the Jets in which he threw for two touchdowns and three INTs. Lock has topped 200+ yards with multiple TD just once in seven career starts.

  • Noah Fant (ankle) is trying to get back in the mix this week after what will be a 17-day layoff with his ankle injury. Fant has 4+ catches in every game this season but he runs into a tough matchup this week. The Patriots have limited studs Darren Waller (2/9 receiving), Travis Kelce (3/70), and Mike Gesicki (3/30) already.

  • Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick are the top WR options with K.J. Hamler (hamstring) unlikely to play, and they could be a little more active if Fant is out or limited. Jeudy scored his first NFL TD in their last game against the Jets, and he’s posted between 55 and 62 yards in each of his games this season. Patrick has scored in consecutive games since taking over for Courtland Sutton (ACL, IR) as the team’s X receiver. Patrick gets a tough matchup with the 2019 Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore. The Patriots have allowed the ninth-most FPG to WRs (40.1), but New England’s numbers are inflated from playing against the Seahawks and the Chiefs early in the season.

  • Melvin Gordon is going to cede some work back to a healthy Phillip Lindsay, and we need to see if Gordon will even play after his DUI arrest earlier this week. Gordon posted 70+ rushing yards in three of his first four games primarily without Lindsay, who suffered his foot injury in the season opener. Gordon will no longer be a bell-cow back with Lindsay entering back into the mix, but Gordon should still see most of the work here. Most importantly, he’s still expected to see most of the goal-line and passing-game work in the backfield. The Patriots have allowed just two RB touchdowns this season, and Chris Carson is the only back to reach 13+ FP.

Patriots Trends

  • The Patriots are not currently allowing spectators.

  • New England is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games.

  • The Patriots are 5-1 toward unders in their last six games in October.

  • Cam Newton is set to return to the lineup after the Patriots activated him from the COVID-19 list. The Patriots are 10-point favorites this week and Cam is averaging 23.5 passing attempts in his two games with positive game scripts. The Broncos are giving up the 10th-most FPG to QBs (21.7), and they allowed 84/1 rushing to Sam Darnold in their last contest.

  • Julian Edelman has managed just 5/58 receiving on 12 targets the last two weeks after posting 8/179 on 11 targets against the Seahawks in Week 2. Jamison Crowder posted 7/104 receiving on 10 targets in this matchup.

  • N’Keal Harry scored his first TD of the season last week, but he posted just 3/21/1 receiving on six targets with the backup QBs. He’s topped just 40+ yards just once this season after failing to do it in seven games last season.

  • Damiere Byrd has posted 5+ catches and 70+ yards in two of his last three games. The Broncos have had some issues with speedy WRs in recent weeks, allowing Jeff Smith (7/81 receiving), Scotty Miller (3/83), and Chase Claypool (3/88/1) to each reach 80+ yards.

  • Damien Harris posted 17/100 rushing on 23 snaps in his first game off the IR with Sony Michel (quad, IR) out of the lineup. James White led the backfield with 40 snaps (7/38 receiving) and Rex Burkhead saw 26 snaps (11/45 rushing). The Broncos haven’t allowed a back to reach 10+ FP in the last two weeks after both Derrick Henry and James Conner each went for 100+ rushing yards in the first two weeks. Denver has allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game to RBs (25.8).

Brolley’s Bets

New England Patriots -9 (Staff Picks Lean)

Damien Harris (NE) over 53.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

Late Afternoon Games

New York Jets (0-5, 0-5 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (2-3, 3-2), 4:05 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Jets 19, Dolphins 28
  • Spread/Total Movements: 7.5 to 9, 47.5 to 47
  • Weather: 80 degrees, 40% chance of rain, 10-15 mph
  • Jets Injuries to Watch: QB Sam Darnold (throwing shoulder, out), LT Mekhi Becton (shoulder), DT Quinnen Williams (hamstring) LG Alex Lewis (shoulder), WR Breshad Perriman (ankle), CB Bless Austin (calf)
  • Dolphins Injuries to Watch: NT Davon Godchaux (biceps, IR), DE Shaq Lawson (shoulder), LB Kyle Van Noy (groin)

Jets Trends

  • New York has the second-lowest implied team total of the week.
  • The Cowboys and the Jets are the only teams that have yet to cover a spread this season.
  • The Jets are not only 0-5 against the spread, but they’re failing to cover spreads by a whopping 10.8 points per game.
  • Adam Gase now has more double-digit losses (8) than he does victories (7) in his one-plus year as the Jets head coach.
  • The Jets released Le’Veon Bell this week, leaving Frank Gore, La’Mical Perine, and Ty Johnson to handle this backfield. Gore averaged 16.3 carries and 50.0 rushing yards per game (3.1 YPC) in three games with Bell out of the lineup in Weeks 2-4.
  • Joe Flacco will start for Sam Darnold (throwing shoulder) for the second straight week. He completed 18/33 passes for 195 yards and one TD against the Cardinals last week. The Dolphins have shut down the two lesser QBs on their schedule so far in Gardner Minshew (275/0 passing) and Jimmy Garoppolo (77/0).
  • Jamison Crowder has 7+ catches, 100+ yards, and a target share of 29% or higher in each of the three games he’s played this season. Crowder managed 11/112/1 receiving in two games against the Dolphins last season, and he’ll avoid Byron Jones and Xavien Howard this week.
  • Jeff Smith has seen 20 targets in the last two weeks with the Jets dying for perimeter WRs with Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims out and with Chris Hogan leaving early last week.

Dolphins Trends

  • The Dolphins will allow up to 13,000 spectators to attend this week.
  • Miami is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.
  • The Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall and 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.
  • Miami is 5-1 toward overs in its last six home games.
  • The Jets have also allowed 27+ points in every game this season.
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick has scored 23+ FP in four straight games and 20+ FP in nine of his last 11 games. Fitz just ripped the 49ers for 350/3 passing thanks in large part to his deep passing as he completed 5/6 passes for 199/2 on passes that traveled 20+ air yards. That bodes well against a Jets defense that just allowed a struggling Kyler Murray 4/5 deep passes for 130 yards and a TD last week. Fitz ripped the Jets for 288/3 passing in Miami last season, and New York has been gashed by the two running QBs they’ve faced in Kyler (31/1 rushing) and Josh Allen (57/1).
  • DeVante Parker has posted 11+ FP and 50+ yards in each of his last four games. The Jets have allowed perimeter WRs DeAndre Hopkins (6/131 receiving) and Tim Patrick (6/113/1) to have big games in the last two weeks.
  • Preston Williams is finally trending upward after a slow first month of the season in his first games back after ACL surgery last year. He posted 4/106/1 receiving on five targets after failing to reach double-digit FP in his first four games. The Dolphins have allowed 27+ FP to three different pairs of WRs this season (Hopkins/Kirk, Patrick/Jeudy, Diggs/Brown).
  • Mike Gesicki has 5+ catches and 90+ yards in two games this season and three or fewer catches and 30 or fewer yards in his other three games. Gesicki does have five end-zone targets and his aDOT sits at a healthy 12.2 yards so he has the potential to blow up at any time. The Jets have allowed big games to Mo Alie-Cox (3/50/1 receiving) and Jordan Reed (7/50/2) in recent weeks before getting a reprieve against the Cardinals last week.
  • The Dolphins finally made the decision to make Jordan Howard a healthy scratch before Week 5. Myles Gaskin, who saw a 63% snap share, didn’t see an actual spike in playing time based on the move since OC Chan Gailey worked both Patrick Laird (15% share) and Lynn Bowden (15% share) into the mix. Matt Breida also saw season-highs in snap share (31%), touches (10), and scrimmage yards (59), but it was Gaskin who cashed in the lone goal-line carry in Week 5. Gaskin finished with 15/57/1 rushing and he caught all five of his targets for 34 yards against the 49ers for his first 20+ FP performance of the season.
  • Gaskin had three carries inside the five-yard line compared to Howard’s eight goal-line carries in the first four weeks of the season before Gaskin converted on Miami’s lone carry at the goal line in Week 5. Gaskin is also averaging 4.6 catches and 29.4 receiving yards per game as a receiver.

Brolley’s Bets

Miami Dolphins -7.5 (Best Bet)

Myles Gaskin (Mia) over 3.5 receptions (Best Bet)

Frank Gore (NYJ) under 7.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Green Bay Packers (4-0, 4-0 ATS) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2, 2-3), 4:25 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Packers 28.5, Buccaneers 27.5
  • Spread/Total Movements: 2.5 to 1, 52.5 to 56
  • Weather: 85 degrees, partly cloudy, 10-15 mph
  • Packers Injuries to Watch: CB Kevin King (quad), TE Marcedes Lewis (knee), LB Rashan Gary (ankle), RB Tyler Ervin (wrist)
  • Buccaneers Injuries to Watch: WR Chris Godwin (hamstring), WR Mike Evans (ankle), RB Leonard Fournette (ankle), WR Scotty Miller (hip), TE Rob Gronkowski (shoulder), LB Lavonte David (knee), CB Carlton Davis (ab), RB LeSean McCoy (ankle), OLB Jason Pierre-Paul (knee)

Packers Trends

  • The Packers are the last team that’s unbeaten against the spread.
  • Green Bay is 5-1 toward overs in its last six games.
  • Aaron Rodgers has thrown for multiple TDs and he’s averaged 8.0 YPA or better in every game this season. He owns a TD-to-INT ratio of 13 to zero and he’s averaging 303.5 passing yards per game. Tampa is giving up the fourth-fewest FPG to QBs this season (16.1).
  • Davante Adams will return to the lineup after resting his hamstring for the last three weeks. He posted 14/156/2 receiving on 17 targets in the season opener before picking up his injury in Week 2. The Packers are down to just Marquez Valdes-Scantling at WR behind him so he should step right back into his huge role. Allen Robinson managed 10/90 receiving against the Buccaneers last week, but he needed 16 targets to get his 19 FP.
  • Robert Tonyan is coming off a three-touchdown performance against the Falcons in Week 4, which gave him five TDs in his last three games. The Buccaneers have allowed touchdowns in consecutive weeks to Jimmy Graham and Donald Parham.
  • Jamaal Williams is averaging 10.5 touches per game but Aaron Jones has still seen 18+ touches per game to start the year. He’s scored at least one touchdown per game with six scores overall. No running back has posted 60+ rushing yards in a game against the Bucs, but they are allowing 7.6 catches and 57.2 receiving yards per game to RBs.
  • Williams is coming off a 16-touch performance against the Falcons in Week 4, which he turned into 105 scrimmage yards. His role should be reduced a bit this week with Dams back in the mix.

Buccaneers Trends

  • The Buccaneers are allowing fans at up to 25% of the stadium’s capacity.
  • Tampa is 1-7-2 ATS in its last 10 home games.
  • Tom Brady is 26-5 in his career and 12-1 since 2014 when given 10+ days of rest between games.
  • Brady struggled against the Bears in Week 5 with limited weapons at his disposal, throwing for 253/1 passing and averaging 6.2 YPA. The Packers had allowed multiple passing TDs until Matt Ryan struggled in Week 4 with Julio Jones leaving early. Green Bay is also allowing a generous 269.0 passing yards per game.
  • Mike Evans clearly hasn’t played at 100% the last two weeks, but he still scored his sixth touchdown of the season against the Bears. He finished with 5/41/1 receiving on nine targets in Week 5, which gives him 45 or fewer yards in three games and 100+ yards in his other two games. Evans is tied for the league lead with four goal-line targets. Evans should see a lot of top CB Jaire Alexander, who held fantasy’s WR1 at the time, Calvin Ridley, without a catch in Week 4.
  • Chris Godwin will try to return to the lineup this week for the first time since he injured his hamstring in Week 3. He posted 5+ catches and 60+ yards in each of his two games this season. The Packers have allowed just two WRs to top 60+ receiving yards in a game (Zaccheaus/Thielen).
  • Rob Gronkowski posted a season-high 52 receiving yards in his first game without O.J. Howard last week, but he’s still yet to find the end zone and he’s yet to top 11+ FP. The Packers defense has yet to allow an opposing TE to find the end zone and no TE has 11+ FP in four games.
  • Ronald Jones has inched ahead of Leonard Fournette in this backfield with consecutive 100+ yard rushing performances while Fournette nursed an ankle injury the last two weeks. Jones posted 17/106 rushing and 3/19 receiving on five targets against the Bears, and he got a bit unlucky when he was ruled down short of the goal line after a replay overturn. Jones is still making plenty of mistakes, especially as a receiver, but he’s making enough big plays as a runner to make himself the lead back for now. The Packers are allowing the second-most FPG to RBs (35.6), including a league-high 70.3 receiving yards per game, which isn’t surprising since teams have been chasing points against them all season.

Brolley’s Bets

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

Sunday Night Football

Los Angeles Rams (4-1, 3-2 ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (2-3, 2-3), 8:20 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Rams 27.5, 49ers 24
  • Spread/Total Movements: 3 to 3.5, 49.5 to 51.5
  • Weather: 79 degrees, clear, 15 mph
  • Rams Injuries to Watch: S Jordan Fuller (shoulder, IR), ILB Micah Kiser (groin)
  • 49ers Injuries to Watch: LB Kwon Alexander (ankle), RB Jeff Wilson (calf)

Rams Trends

  • The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.
  • Los Angeles is 10-2 toward unders in its last 12 games as a favorite.
  • The Rams are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games.
  • The Rams and the 49ers have combined for 58.0 points per game since Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan took over in 2017, which is the highest average for any divisional opponents in that span.
  • Darrell Henderson has finished as a top-12 RB in three of his last four games. With all three backs in the mix, Henderson led the backfield with 29 snaps and 18 touches, which he turned into 68/2 scrimmage. Malcolm Brown finished with 26 snaps and nine touches (24/0) while Cam Akers saw 13 snaps and nine touches (61/0 scrimmage). Henderson is the only back to use with some confidence right now. The 49ers are allowing the second-fewest FPG to RBs (16.9), but Myles Gaskin just posted 20.1 FP on 91/1 scrimmage.
  • Jared Goff has completed 70% of his passes or better in four straight games, and he’s averaged 8.9 YPA or better in four of his first five games. Ryan Fitzpatrick just burned the 49ers for 350/3 passing, but the 49ers hadn’t allowed more than 235+ yards or multiple TD passes through their first four games.
  • Robert Woods has scored three TDs in his last three games, which has him one TD away from matching his 2018 and his 2019 TD totals of four. It’s a good thing he has the TD deodorant right now as he’s averaging just 60.0 receiving yards and 4.6 catches per game in the early going after averaging 75.9 receiving yards and 5.7 catches per game in 2018-19. Woods had 8/117 receiving on 11 targets in Week 16 against the 49ers last season.
  • Cooper Kupp has 5+ catches and 65+ yards in each of his last four games, and he’s leading the team with a 25% target share and a 24% air yards share. Kupp managed just 8/48/1 receiving against the 49ers last season.
  • Tyler Higbee has run 48 routes and seen eight targets over the last three games while Gerald Everett has run 34 routes and seen six targets. Everett led the way with 4/90 receiving while Higbee managed just 2/12, which gives him four games with eight or fewer FP. The 49ers didn’t allow a TE to reach 40+ yards in their first four games before Mike Gesicki ripped them for 90+ yards.

49ers Trends

  • This line has swung nearly seven points since last week’s lookahead line that had the 49ers favored by three points.
  • The 49ers are not currently allowing spectators.
  • The 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog.
  • San Fran is 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games.
  • In his first game back after a two-game layoff, Raheem Mostert finished with 11/90 rushing and 3/29 receiving in a blowout loss to the Dolphins. Mostert played on 48% of the snaps, which would’ve been higher if the 49ers were competitive for four quarters. Mostert has been way more involved in the passing game than anticipated this summer with 9/139/1 receiving in three games after he managed just 14/180/2 receiving in 16 games last season. Mostert is once again leading all RBs in YPC average (7.0) this season after leading all back in 2019 (5.6). The Rams are giving up a generous 4.5 YPC and 6.4 catches per game to RBs this season.
  • Jerick McKinnon went back to his change-of-pace/passing-back role after becoming the bell-cow back during Mostert’s absence. McKinnon managed just 2/5 receiving on four targets and he finished without any rushing yards on his one carry while playing on just 25% of the snaps.
  • The 49ers will likely turn back to Jimmy Garoppolo this week as he didn’t have any setbacks to his injured ankle. He’s at risk to be pulled in-game after averaging just 4.5 YPA last week against the Dolphins before getting yanked for C.J. Beathard, who wasn’t much better with 5.2 YPA. The Rams are allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game to QBs (224.0).
  • With his QBs struggling, George Kittle managed 4/44 receiving on eight targets against the Dolphins. Kittle posted 18+ FP in each of his games against the Rams last season as he finished 13/182/1 receiving combined. The Rams allowed three TDs to Bills backup TEs in Week 3, but they haven’t allowed another TE to score or to reach 45+ receiving yards in a game.
  • Deebo Samuel saw an 89% snap share and a 23% target share in Week 5 while Brandon Aiyuk has seen his snap share rise every week, topping out at 97% last week. Deebo has just 5/54 receiving and 2/13 rushing in his first two games of 2020. He posted 59/1 scrimmage against the Rams in Week 16 last season. Jalen Ramsey and company are allowing the fewest FPG to WRs this season (26.4).

Brolley’s Bets

San Francisco 49ers +3 (Staff Pick Lean)

Over 51.5 points (Best Bet)

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.