Welcome to Fantasy Points Best Bets. This will be the main hub for our staff’s favorite NFL bets throughout the season. Our staff will give their favorite spread, total, and player prop bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers our crew has lined up for the week ahead.
Tom Brolley
Game Picks
ATS Record: 16-10-1 (+4.47 units); W6: 4-0 (+4.48 units)
Totals Record: 2-3 (-.95 units); W6: 0-1 (-1 units)
Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers (OVER 51.5 points, PointsBet)
The Rams and the 49ers have combined for 58.0 points per game in their meetings since Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan took over in 2017, which is the highest average for any divisional opponents in that span. McVay and Shanahan are friends and they’re always trying to one-up each other when they match wits twice a year. I’m expecting Jimmy Garoppolo to play much better this week as he gets another week removed from his initial ankle injury, and Shanahan should lead a much more focused approach with all their key offensive pieces playing together for the second time. Meanwhile, this 49ers defense is not the dominant unit that led the 49ers to the Super Bowl last season because of a plethora of injuries. The 49ers secondary just got gashed for 43 points by Ryan Fitzpatrick last week as he averaged 12.5 YPA thanks to multiple coverage busts by the 49ers. Jared Goff is leading the league in YPA (9.0) this season and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Rams hit a couple big plays this week. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Oct. 16).
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, DraftKings) vs. Cleveland Browns
The Browns have never beaten the Steelers at Heinz Field with Mike Tomlin as head coach, but Cleveland is seeing most of the market support in the middle of the week. The Steelers have gone from 4.5-point favorites earlier this week, which is about what I would’ve made the line, to the Steelers being just field-goal favorites. I’m jumping on this number now because I’m expecting some Steelers money to come in here heading into the weekend. I mostly like the Steelers side this week because Baker Mayfield isn’t playing particularly well and now he’s going to try to play through a rib injury. Our Greg Cosell said on our Week 6 Matchup Podcast that Mayfield isn’t playing great well and he’s playing frenetic. That doesn’t bode well this week going against a Steelers defense that’s leading the league in sacks per game (5.0) and in adjusted sack rate (11.1%). The Browns also won’t have standout RG Wyatt Teller, which is a blow for Kareem Hunt and this rushing attack if they hope to limit Mayfield’s attempts. Risk 1.5 units at -114 to win 1.32 units (Oct. 15).
Dallas Cowboys (+2/+105 FoxBet) vs. Arizona Cardinals
I should’ve jumped on this line early in the week when the Cowboys were catching a full field goal on Monday, but I still see value betting the Cowboys moneyline and while they’re still catching points. I have the Cowboys as slight favorites in this contest even with Dak Prescott going down for the season since they have one of the most capable backup QBs in Andy Dalton. The Cardinals quietly had their own big loss this week on the defensive side of the ball with one of the league’s best pass rushers, Chandler Jones, going down for the season with a torn biceps. Jones’ absence will give Dalton a better chance to get comfortable this week. I’ll take the bet that there isn’t a dramatic dropoff from Dak to Dalton as this line implies. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units and risk .25 units at +105 to .26 units (Oct. 15).
Tennessee Titans (-3, DraftKings) vs. Houston Texans
The Titans are slightly disadvantaged this week since they’re playing this week with just five weeks of rest, but I have Tennessee power rated significantly higher than the Texans. Houston finally picked up a win this past weekend in their first game without Bill O’Brien, but I’m not drinking the Kool-Aid just yet since they beat a Jaguars team that’s starting to bottom out. I figured this game would open in the 4-to-5 point range after Tennessee’s first complete performance of the season. I’m going to grab this number now before it rises later this week. The Titans could get a few more players back off of the COVID-19 list by this weekend and this looks like a great spot to get Derrick Henry rolling this week. Houston’s already bad run defense just lost ILB Benardrick McKinney to a season-ending shoulder injury. Risk 1.5 units at -110 to win 1.36 units (Oct. 14).
Detroit Lions (-3, DraftKings) at Jacksonville Jaguars
I broke this game down as part of my Week 6 Opening Line Report. I bet the Lions at -3 on Monday morning because I believe this line will settle in the 3.5-to-4.5 point range later this week because of the injuries the Jaguars are currently dealing with, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Risk one unit at -112 to win .89 units (Oct. 12).
Miami Dolphins (-7.5, FoxBet) vs. New York Jets
I broke this game down as part of my Week 6 Opening Line Report. I’m going to keep fading the Jets every week until they show they can even come close to staying within the number against any opponent. The Jets are not only 0-5 against the spread, but they’re failing to cover spreads by a whopping 10.8 points per game after falling short of the number by 13 points against the Cardinals. Meanwhile, the Dolphins just covered the spread by 34 points against the 49ers in Week 5, and they’ve back to being ATS darlings with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback like they were at the end of last season. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Oct. 12).
Player Props
Record: 49-41 (+4.19 units); W5: 4-9 (-5.23 units)
All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.
Lamar Jackson (Bal) under 49.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)
Greg Ward (Phi) over 3.5 receptions (-106, DraftKings) (L)
Frank Gore (NYJ) under 7.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)
Ryan Tannehill (Ten) under 262.5 passing yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)
Todd Gurley (Atl) over 57.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)
David Montgomery (Chi) over 85.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)
Myles Gaskin (Mia) over 3.5 receptions (+108, DraftKings) (W)
Trey Burton (Ind) over 26.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel) (W)
Jonathan Taylor (Ind) over 92.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)
Damien Harris (NE) over 53.5 rushing yards (-110, FanDuel) (L)
Russell Gage (Atl) under 40.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel) (L)
Eric Ebron (Pit) over 3.5 receptions (+114, FanDuel) (L)
Jarvis Landry (Cle) over 4.5 receptions (+108, DraftKings) (L)
Michael Gallup (Dal) over 41.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)
