Week 6 MNF Trends & Picks


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Week 6 MNF Trends & Picks

Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

Monday Night Football

Kansas City Chiefs (4-1, 3-2 ATS) at Buffalo Bills (4-1, 3-2), 5 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Chiefs 30.5, Bills 25

  • Spread/Total Movements: 3.5 to 5.5, 57.5 to 55.5

  • Weather:

  • Chiefs Injuries to Watch: WR Sammy Watkins (hamstring, out), OG Kelechi Osemele (knees, IR),

  • Bills Injuries to Watch: WR John Brown (knee), CB Tre’Davious White (back), LB Matt Milano (pec), LB Tremaine Edmunds (shoulder)

Chiefs Trends

  • Kansas City has the highest implied team total of the week.

  • The Chiefs are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven Monday games.

  • Kansas City is 8-1 ATS in their last nine games against teams with winning records.

  • The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.

  • Kansas City has played under the total in five straight road games.

  • Patrick Mahomes has thrown for multiple TDs in every game this season, and he’s run for 20+ yards in each of his last four games. Ryan Tannehill just got the Bills for four TDs and 30 FP last week, and Buffalo has allowed 21+ FP in four straight games.

  • Travis Kelce has finished as a top-12 TE in 19 of his last 21 games. Among TEs, he’s second in receptions (32) and first in receiving yards (405) while the Bills have allowed the most receptions (39) and receiving yards (418) this season.

  • Tyreek Hill has scored a touchdown in every game this season and he’s posted 60+ receiving yards in each of his last four games. He’s now posted 10+ FP in 17 straight games that he’s played for all four quarters. A.J. Brown posted 7/82/1 receiving in his return to the lineup last week against the Bills. Buffalo could get Tre’Davious White back this week but Hill will move all over the field.

  • Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson will see their roles increased this week with Sammy Watkins (hamstring) set to miss this week. Hardman posted 10/152/1 receiving in the three games that Watkins missed last season while Robinson managed just 6/62 in that same span.

  • The Chiefs made headlines this week by signing Le’Veon Bell, but he won’t join the team until Week 7. Clyde Edwards-Helaire had a touchdown reception taken off the board by a teammate’s OPI call. He’s now seen 6.3 targets per game since failing to catch a pass in the season opener. He has reached 11+ FP in every game but he’s failed to score a TD in each of the last four games. The Bills are allowing the fourth-fewest FPG to RBs (22.0) and Derrick Henry failed to hit 20+ despite scoring two touchdowns last week.

Bills Trends

  • The Bills are not currently allowing spectators.

  • The Bills, the Saints, and the Raiders are the only teams that have yet to play under the total this season.

  • Buffalo is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games against teams with winning records.

  • The Bills are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog.

  • Josh Allen has thrown for multiple TDs in every game this season, but he’s coming off his worst performance of the season. He averaged 6.4 YPA and he threw two INTs against the Titans as his accuracy issues from the last two seasons crept back in. Derek Carr ripped the Chiefs for 347/3 passing last week, which was the first time Kansas City had allowed multiple passing TDs in a game this season.

  • Stefon Diggs has finished inside the top-30 at the position in every game this season. He posted his third 100-yard game of the season last week and he’s now scored 14+ FP in every game. Henry Ruggs beat the Chiefs deep twice as he finished with 2/118/1 receiving.

  • John Brown missed last week with a calf/knee injury but he’s trending toward returning this week against the Chiefs. He saw just 13 targets in his last three games, and he managed just 4/42 against the Raiders. He did just miss a touchdown in that game, which would’ve been his third score in three full games. The Chiefs are allowing the fourth-fewest FPG to WRs (29.8) this season.

  • Coley Beasley has posted at least nine FP in every game this season after posting 6/53 receiving against the Titans with Brown out of the lineup.

  • Devin Singletary disappointed with Zack Moss (foot) missing last week, managing just 13/33 scrimmage against the Titans. He played just 63% of the snaps with T.J. Yeldon factoring in more than anticipated with the Bills playing in such a negative game script. Moss is trending toward returning, which should split up the workload in this backfield. The Chiefs are giving up the fourth-most rushing yards per game to RBs (126.4) and the sixth-most receiving yards per game to RBs (56.2).

Brolley’s Bets

Buffalo Bills +4.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

Arizona Cardinals (3-2, 3-2 ATS) at Dallas Cowboys (2-3, 0-5), 8:15 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Cardinals 27.75, Cowboys 26.75

  • Spread/Total Movements: 3 to 1, 55.5 to 54.5

  • Weather: Dome

  • Cardinals Injuries to Watch: DE Chandler Jones (bicep, IR), RG J.R. Sweezy (elbow, IR), LT D.J. Humphries (back), OLB Devon Kennard (calf)

  • Cowboys Injuries to Watch: None of note.

Cardinals Trends

  • The Cardinals are the only team that has played under the total in every game this season.

  • The Cardinals are 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12 road games

  • Arizona is 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games

  • They played under the total in four straight games as a road underdog.

  • Kyler Murray is 6-0 as a starter at AT&T Stadium, with five wins in high school and one in the 2018 Big 12 Championship Game. Kyler is averaging 11.9 FPG just as a runner this season, and he finally got it going as a passer with a season-best 380 yards against the lowly Jets. He gets another juicy matchup this week against a Cowboys defense that’s allowing 2.2 TD passes per game.

  • DeAndre Hopkins has 6+ catches in every game this season, and he’s already topped 130+ receiving yards in three games. The Cowboys have allowed 17+ FP to every #1 perimeter WR they’ve faced this season.

  • Christian Kirk has seen more than a 15% target share in each of his last two games after falling below that mark in his first two games. His fantasy points have gone up every week (1<8<10.9<12.8) and the Cowboys are allowing the third-most FPG (45.8).

  • Kenyan Drake found the end zone last week for the first time since the season opener, but he continues to be ineffective with another 19 touches for just 63 yards (3.3 yards per touch). The Cowboys are allowing 126.2 rushing yards per game and 4.4 YPC to opposing RBs this season.

  • Chase Edmonds saw a season-high 45% of the snaps and he holds a 23-to-6 advantage in targets over Drake. Edmonds has five catches in each of his last two games while the Cowboys are allowing just 3.6/20.0/0 receiving per game to opposing RBs.

Cowboys Trends

  • The Cowboys are allowing nearly 25,000 spectators to attend games.

  • The Cowboys and the Jets are the only teams that have yet to cover a spread this season.

  • The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a home underdog.

  • Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five Monday night games

  • The Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.

  • Dallas has played over the total in four straight games and in five straight home games.

  • Dak Prescott was the QB1 through the first four weeks of the season with 32.0 FPG. Andy Dalton will take over this work, and he’ll be working with his best receiving corps since he had A.J. Green, Marvin Jones, Tyler Eifert, and Mohamed Sanu at the same time in the mid-2010s. Dalton averaged 8.2 YPA in limited action against the Giants last week, and he led the Cowboys to the game-winning field goal. He’ll get some relief this week with top pass rusher Chandler Jones (bicep, IR) out for the Cardinals.

  • Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb each saw season-lows in snap share last week (63% and 55%, respectively) as they continue to work Cedrick Wilson and Noah Brown into the mix a little more every week.

  • Coop managed just 2/23 receiving on four targets going against James Bradberry last week. The Cardinals are allowing the fifth-fewest FPG to WRs (), but they have been had by top perimeter WRs in Robby Anderson (8/99 receiving), Kenny Golladay (6/57/1), and Terry McLaurin (7/125/1).

  • Lamb has 5+ catches and 59+ yards in every game this season, and he’s topped 20+ FP in each of his last two games. Dalton gets the ball out of his hands lightning fast as he’s averaged fewer than 2.40 seconds to release in each of his nine seasons. That should benefit a player like Lamb out of the slot, and the Cardinals just allowed 8/116/1 receiving to Jamison Crowder last week.

  • Dalton’s propensity to get the ball out quickly puts Michael Gallup at a bit of a disadvantage considering he typically runs the longer developing passes down the field. Gallup’s highest target share in a game this season is 16% and he has a 12% share overall. He did catch all three of his targets from Dalton last week for 65 yards. The Cardinals have yet to allow a pair of WRs to both reach 10+ FP in a game this season.

  • Dalton Schultz disappointed with just a six-yard catch against the Giants last week on three targets, which ended his run with 4+ catches and 48+ yards since taking over as the team’s starting TE. The Cardinals have contained TEs like George Kittle (4/44 receiving) and T.J. Hockenson (4/53) this season.

  • Ezekiel Elliott has seen a whopping 14 carries inside the 5-yard line, which is six more than the next closest player, Jordan Howard, this season. Zeke has seen 20+ touches in every game, he’s scored a TD in four of five games, and he’s topped 100+ scrimmage yards in four of five games. Mike Davis posted 111/1 scrimmage against the Cardinals two weeks ago.

Brolley’s Bets

Dallas Cowboys +2 and +105 ML (Best Bet)

Michael Gallup (Dal) over 41.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.