Week 5 TNF Trends and Picks


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Week 5 TNF Trends and Picks

Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

Thursday Night Football

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1, 2-2 ATS) at Chicago Bears (3-1, 2-2), 8:20 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Buccaneers 23.75, Bears 20.25

  • Spread/Total Movements: 5.5 to 3.5, 45 to 44

  • Weather: 58 degrees, clear, 5-10 mph

  • Buccaneers Injuries to Watch: WR Chris Godwin (hamstring, out), WR Mike Evans (ankle), RB Leonard Fournette (ankle, doubtful), WR Scotty Miller (hip/groin), WR Justin Watson (chest, out), RB LeSean McCoy (ankle, out)

  • Bears Injuries to Watch: WR Darnell Monney (shoulder), S Deon Bush (hamstring, out), S Sherrick McManis (hamstring, doubtful)

Buccaneers Trends

  • The Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a road favorite.

  • Tampa is 5-1 toward overs in its last six games as a favorite.

  • Tom Brady has 11 TDs and he owns a 7.1% TD rate through four weeks, which has helped him to three top-12 QB finishes. The Bears are allowing the second-fewest FPG to QBs (12.6) and no team has thrown for multiple TD passes against them in the first two weeks.

  • Mike Evans has scored five touchdowns on 26 targets this season. Brady last connected with a teammate for a touchdown in the first four games of a season back in 2007 with Randy Moss, who finished that season with 23 scores. Evans has seven catches, 100+ yards, and a TD in each of his two games without Chris Godwin (hamstring). The Bears have yet to allow a touchdown pass to a WR this season and Calvin Ridley is the only WR to score 14+ FP against them this season.

  • Scotty Miller has 70+ receiving yards in three of his first four games and he scored his first TD last week. He ranks inside the top-10 at the position with a 16.6 aDOT. The Bears have allowed just Ridley and Danny Amendola to top 70+ receiving yards.

  • Rob Gronkowski ran a season-best 31 routes last week and O.J. Howard is now done for the season with an Achilles injury. Godwin (hamstring) won’t play this week and Evans looked severely hampered in Week 4 so Brady might have no other choice but to get his buddy Gronk more involved. The Bears have allowed TDs to tight ends in three of their first four games so maybe Gronk can break the seal and find the end zone for the first time with the Buccaneers.

  • Ronald Jones played a career-high 64% of the snaps last week with Leonard Fournette out and LeSean McCoy leaving early. He posted season-best numbers across the board in carries (20), rushing yards (111), targets (9), and receiving FP (7.7). The Bears have allowed four backs to score between 14-15 FP in the first four weeks but no player has reached 16+ FP.

  • Fournette is going to try to suit up while Shady is expected to miss. Ke’Shawn Vaughn played 25% of the snaps and he posted 2/22/1 receiving on three targets last week, and RoJo dropped two passes last week in the passing game.

Bears Trends

  • The Bears won’t have fans in attendance this week.

  • Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.

  • The Bears are 6-1 toward unders in their last seven home games.

  • The Bears are the only team without a rushing touchdown this season.

  • David Montgomery saw an 86% snap share in his first game without Tarik Cohen (ACL, IR). He ran the second-most routes among all RBs last week with 35. Montgomery managed just 3/30 receiving on six targets and 10/27 rushing against the Colts. Tampa is allowing just 45.5 rushing yards per game to RBs (3rd-fewest) but they’ve allowed 64.3 receiving yards per game to RBs (4th-most).

  • The Bears mustered just 269 total yards against the Colts in Nick Foles’ first start with the Bears, with their only touchdown coming more than 58 minutes into their loss to Indy. He averaged just 5.9 YPA while throwing for 249 yards. Justin Herbert became the first QB to top 15+ FP against the Buccaneers last season thanks to his 11.6 YPA.

  • Allen Robinson powered the Bears’ final scoring drive last week, giving him 100+ yards and a TD in each of Foles’ first two games. Robinson has seen 9+ targets in every game while the Buccaneers have allowed 8+ catches to Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore, and Robby Anderson early in the season.

  • Darnell Mooney posted career-best numbers across the board last week in targets (9), catches (5), and receiving yards (52). Anthony Miller has just 5/57/1 receiving over his last three games as the team’s #3 WR.

  • Jimmy Graham saw five targets and posted 4/33 receiving in Foles’ first start. Tampa allowed its first TE touchdown of the season to Donald Parham last week, but they limited Hunter Henry to 2/39 receiving on three targets.

Brolley’s Bets

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

Nick Foles over 21.5 completions (Best Bet)

Rob Gronkowski anytime TD +210 (Best Bet)

Cam Brate anytime TD +375 (Best Bet)

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.