Week 4 MNF Trends & Picks


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Week 4 MNF Trends & Picks

Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

Monday Night Football

New England Patriots (2-1, 2-1 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-0, 2-1), 7 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Patriots 19.5, Chiefs 30

  • Weather: 68 degrees, clear, 10-15 mph

  • Patriots Injuries to Watch: QB Cam Newton (COVID-IR) RB Sony Michel (quad, out), RG Shaq Mason (calf), LT Isaiah Wynn (calf), WR Julian Edelman (knee)

  • Chiefs Injuries to Watch: DT Chris Jones (groin)

Patriots Trends

  • The Patriots are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.

  • New England is 5-1 toward overs in its last six games.

  • The Patriots and Bill Belichick are the only team to beat Patrick Mahomes twice (playoffs included).

  • The Patriots have won five straight games against teams that have started the season 3-0 or better.

  • Cam Newton has 35 carries already, which has him on pace 187 carries this season. His previous career-high was 139 carries in 2017. Unfortunately, he won’t be in the lineup this week after testing positive for COVID-19, which leaves veteran Brian Hoyer in charge of the offense. The Patriots went from seven-point underdogs to 10.5-point underdogs switching from Cam to Hoyer. This passing attack should see more volume this week with Hoyer in the lineup and with the potential for a negative game script. The Chiefs have also allowed 7+ FP in rushing production to each QB they’ve faced this year.

  • Julian Edelman and company have a better chance at relevance this week with their passing volume expected to spike. Edelman had 8/179 receiving when they had a negative game script while he managed just 7/80 receiving in his two games with a positive game script. Playing with Tom Brady last season, Edelman finished with 8/95/1 receiving in this matchup in Week 14.

  • Gunner Olszewski (foot) is expected to return to the lineup this week, and we’ll see if he factors in on the perimeter. N’Keal Harry saw just a 14% target share last week after seeing a 29% share in Weeks 1-2. Harry posted 8/72 receiving back in Week 2 when Cam was pressed to throw it more.

  • Damiere Byrd played on 96% of the snaps last week and he posted 6/72 receiving back in Week 2 when the Patriots needed to throw.

  • Cam is pacing the Patriots in carries with Sony Michel the next closest with 26 totes. Good luck trying to figure out how the Patriots are going to use all their backs this week with Damien Harris (finger) and James White (personal) both likely back in the fold this week. The Chiefs are allowing 165.7 scrimmage yards to opposing RBs this season. At least Michel is out this week, which means Harris could be active in his first game back if the Patriots activate him.

Chiefs Trends

  • Kansas City will have 16,000 fans in attendance this week.

  • The Chiefs are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight home games

  • Kansas City is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite.

  • The Chiefs are 4-1 toward overs in their last five home games.

  • After averaging 6.4 and 6.6 YPA in his first two games, Patrick Mahomes torched the Ravens defense for 385/4 passing while averaging 9.2 YPA. The Patriots contained Mahomes to 283 yards, one TD, and one INT in a Week 14 meeting last season.

  • Tyreek Hill has 15+ FP in each game as he’s posted five catches with a touchdown in every game. Hill had a solid 6/62 receiving on eight targets against the Patriots last season.

  • Travis Kelce had a similar solid line against the Patriots last season with 7/66 receiving on nine targets. Kelce has 14+ FP in every game this season thanks to snagging six or more passes in every game.

  • Sammy Watkins has a pair of seven-catch games sandwiched around a one-catch game, which he did leave early for because of a concussion. He posted 4/50 receiving on eight targets in this matchup last season.

  • Mecole Hardman busted out with 4/80/1 receiving on six targets last week but he still ran a route on just 42.9% of Mahomes’ dropbacks last week (21 of 49). He caught his only target for 48 yards last season against the Patriots.

  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the only player six or more carries inside the 10-yard line without a touchdown. He now has 11/102 receiving over the last two weeks after failing to catch a pass in his pro debut. Unfortunately, he has just 30/102 rushing the last two weeks after posting 25/138/1 rushing in the season opener. Josh Jacobs posted a serviceable 16/71 rushing and 3/12 receiving against the Patriots last week.

Brolley’s Bets

New England Patriots +10.5

Atlanta Falcons (0-3, 1-2 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (3-0, 3-0), 8:50 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Falcons 25, Packers 32

  • Spread/Total Movements: 7.5 to 7, 58 to 57

  • Weather: 52 degrees, clear, 15 mph

  • Falcons Injuries to Watch: WR Julio Jones (hamstring), WR Calvin Ridley (ankle), S Keanu Neal (hamstring), S Ricardo Allen (elbow, out), DE Takk McKinley (groin, out), K Younghoe Koo (groin, out)

  • Packers Injuries to Watch: WR Davante Adams (hamstring, out), WR Allen Lazard (core, IR), LB Christian Kirksey (pec), TE Marcedes Lewis (knee, doubtful), LB Za’Darius Smith (ankle), CB Jaire Alexander (groin), DL Kenny Clark (groin), LB Rashan Gary (ankle), TE Josiah Deguara (ankle)

Falcons Trends

  • The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games

  • Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.

  • The Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games

  • Atlanta has played over the total in four straight games.

  • The Falcons are the first team to blow a fourth-quarter lead of 15+ points in consecutive games.

  • Julio Jones has averaged 103.6 receiving yards per game against Green Bay, which is the most by any player since the NFL-AFL merger (minimum five games). He missed last week with a hamstring injury, but he’ll at least have an extra day to get ready for Week 4.

  • Matt Ryan could certainly use Julio this week after he posted just 12.4 FPG with just 238/1 passing against the Bears last week. The Packers have allowed multiple TD passes over the first three weeks of the season.

  • Calvin Ridley is leading the league in WR FPG (26.8) and he sits third in targets (35), second in yards (349), and first in TDs (4) at the position. The Packers have allowed five WR TDs so far but only Adam Thielen has topped 60+ receiving yards against them so far.

  • Russell Gage (concussion) is also in a race to play this week and he gets an extra day to pass through concussion protocol. He posted 16+ FP in his first two games. Perimeter WR Olamide Zaccheaus saw a 16% target share and 78% snap with Gage (concussion) leaving early and with Julio sitting out Week 3. Slot WR Brandon Powell will also be in the mix after playing 55% of the snaps.

  • Todd Gurley saw a disheartening 51% snap share last week despite the Falcons holding a major lead for most of the game. Brian Hill saw season-highs in snap share (35%), opportunities (12), and scrimmage yards (80). Gurley is averaging a solid 65.7 rushing yards per game on 4.0 YPC, but he has just three catches for three receiving yards, which isn’t great news with the Falcons entering as 7.5-point road underdogs.

Packers Trends

  • Green Bay won’t have fans in attendance this week.

  • The Packers are undefeated against the spread, and they’ve beaten the spread on average by 11.5 points.

  • The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.

  • Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.

  • The Packers have played over the total in their last five games.

  • The Packers are leading the league in points per game (40.7) and in yards per play (6.9).

  • Aaron Rodgers is 1-5 (playoffs included) against Dan Quinn as a head coach or as a defensive coordinator. Quinn’s Falcons defense will be hard-pressed to slow down a smoking hot Rodgers right now. He’s thrown for 8.0 YPA or better with multiple TD passes in every game to start the year without an interception. On the other side, the Falcons have given up the most FPG to QBs to start the year with 34.5. Unfortunately, Rodgers will be without his top two receivers with Davante Adams (hamstring) and Allen Lazard (core, IR) both out.

  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Robert Tonyan will be the focal point of this passing attack now and they have ideal matchups to come through in. MVS has just 4/69 receiving the last two weeks after posting 4/96/1 receiving in Week 1. Meanwhile, Tonyan still holds a slight edge over Jace Sternberger and Marcedes Lewis (out) at tight end. Tonyan has scored in consecutive games while the Falcons have allowed 12+ FP and a touchdown to opposing TEs in every game.

  • Allen Robinson (10/123/1 receiving), Amari Cooper (6/100), and D.K. Metcalf (4/95/1) have each dominated the perimeter CBs for the Falcons.

  • Anthony Miller (2/41/1 receiving), CeeDee Lamb (6/106), and Tyler Lockett (8/92) have each gone off out of the slot against the Falcons.

  • Aaron Jones is the RB2 through three weeks with 16+ FP and at least one touchdown in every game. The Falcons are allowing just 68.0 rushing yards per game with most teams electing to throw it on them, and they’re a healthy 6.7/38.0/.7 receiving per game to RBs.

Brolley’s Bets

Atlanta Falcons +7.5 (Best Bet)

Aaron Rodgers (GB) under 289.5 passing yards (Best Bet)

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.